Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

A thought.

I could be thinking in a wrong way..If I have planned on starting an offensive against my enemy I must see to that my chain of supply or the logistic works so I can get an never ending supply of material and manpower.

Ukraine is planning on such an offensive-Do they have enough material and if needed manpower ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

That is the million dollar question and I think currently the answer is NO but if military aid continues then after a month or so they may have built up a reserve to make limited pushes.

Russia has and always will have far greater numbers,

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

A thought.

I could be thinking in a wrong way..If I have planned on starting an offensive against my enemy I must see to that my chain of supply or the logistic works so I can get an never ending supply of material and manpower.

Ukraine is planning on such an offensive-Do they have enough material and if needed manpower ?

Markus

...Ukraine can win. In terms of manpower, President Zelenskyy can eventually put up to a million trained soldiers in the field, despite heavy losses to date. This is far more than Russia can likely generate.

Virtually the entire Russian army has been committed inside Ukraine, including units stripped from the Far East and the Kaliningrad exclave. Though often touted as “850,000 strong,” the Russian military on the ground is actually significantly under 300,000, with the rest belonging to internal security troops (the Russian National Guard), border police and other organizations unsuited for combat in Ukraine. This force has suffered painful losses that cannot be offset with poorly trained conscripts and recalled reservists. Nor can Putin resort to full mobilization without putting his regime at great risk. As time goes on, Ukraine’s manpower advantage will only grow... https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...raine-can-win/

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

[...] Russia has and always will have far greater numbers,

Russia having far greater numbers than Ukraine, yes. But against the rest of the world (ok sans China and Africa, but still) ?
Russia has lost almost a third of its overall military hardware. Much more when it comes to modern systems.
Russia will not stop with Ukraine, me and others told you so before.
Up to now Ukraine is fighting the war for Europe and the west, and if we do not stop them now this will develop into a world-wide war.

I wonder why anyone here thinks that things will get back to normal "when the war is over". The war will not be over with Ukraine, stop dreaming. And there is not enough engagement now to end this war, by the west. Nothing will get "back to normal".

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Russia having far greater numbers than Ukraine, yes. But against the rest of the world (ok sans China and Africa, but still) ?
Russia has lost almost a third of its overall military hardware. Much more when it comes to modern systems.
Russia will not stop with Ukraine, me and others told you so before.
Up to now Ukraine is fighting the war for Europe and the west, and if we do not stop them now this will develop into a world-wide war.

I wonder why anyone here thinks that things will get back to normal "when the war is over". The war will not be over with Ukraine, stop dreaming. And there is not enough engagement now to end this war, by the west. Nothing will get "back to normal".

I think this is the reason to why western countries are sending a lot of military aid to Ukraine and why we train and have trained them.

Because the leaders here know Putin will not stop with Ukraine.

Markus

[Dargo]

Kazakhstan is significantly increasing its defense spending and seeking closer ties with China and NATO countries amid fears of Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions spreading beyond Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a Kazakh official.

The Central Asian country will commit an extra 441 billion tenge ($918 million) to its defense budget, a nearly 1.5-fold increase over last year’s budget of $1.7 billion, WSJ reported. Part of the additional funds will be spent on strengthening its military reserves. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...ion-wsj-a78400

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Ukraine central bank has sold over $12 billion of its gold reserves during the war, its deputy head says

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ad-2022-07-17/


So I have to ask from who or where the hell did get the other 10.4 billion in gold from? According to CEIC and WGC they only had 1.6 billion in reserves to begin with.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicato.../gold-reserves

Paper gold maybe...? Many people, journalists alike, do not differentiate between paper and physical gold, think its the same two things.

Well, it isn't.


Or its a propaganda statement only.

[vanjast]

The US "stands squarely behind Ukraine and will sustain our support until Ukraine wins this war,"

That's just it.. The US backs Ukraine down to the last Ukrainian male standing.

There are many alternative info resources to the MSM... they all produce a completely different story to what is being said on MSM, 90+% exact opposite.
They cannot all be 'propaganda'.

Truth is the first casualty of war, as the 'ministers of propaganda' (MSM) bamboozle their peoples.
Alternative media is the way to go.

[Dargo]

A Russian Sociologist Explains Why Putin’s War Is Going Even Worse Than It Looks
Loren Balhorn: How long do you think the Russian economy can hold out?
Boris Kagarlitsky: It can continue for another two or maybe three months, depending on the particular industry. The important thing, however, is that the guys who really own everything start taking losses. Nobody cares about industries or people, everybody cares about profits.

https://jacobin.com/2022/07/russia-u...cid=dae6ee9231

[VipertheSniper]

Just had this in my recommends on youtube and I think this fits here nicely, talking about russian propaganda

[August]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Russia having far greater numbers than Ukraine, yes. But against the rest of the world (ok sans China and Africa, but still) ?
Russia has lost almost a third of its overall military hardware. Much more when it comes to modern systems.
Russia will not stop with Ukraine, me and others told you so before.
Up to now Ukraine is fighting the war for Europe and the west, and if we do not stop them now this will develop into a world-wide war.

I wonder why anyone here thinks that things will get back to normal "when the war is over". The war will not be over with Ukraine, stop dreaming. And there is not enough engagement now to end this war, by the west. Nothing will get "back to normal".

Agree 100% Catfish.



IMO there is really no such thing as a European "normal". Viewed historically the past 77 years, or at least the last 31, have been an uncharacteristically peaceful period in European History and I have often wondered how long it would last.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Russia having far greater numbers than Ukraine, yes. But against the rest of the world (ok sans China and Africa, but still) ?
Russia has lost almost a third of its overall military hardware. Much more when it comes to modern systems.
Russia will not stop with Ukraine, me and others told you so before.
Up to now Ukraine is fighting the war for Europe and the west, and if we do not stop them now this will develop into a world-wide war.

I wonder why anyone here thinks that things will get back to normal "when the war is over". The war will not be over with Ukraine, stop dreaming. And there is not enough engagement now to end this war, by the west. Nothing will get "back to normal".

They have the intention to continue beyond Ukraine, yes - but do they have the ability, after losses of the scale you describe....? They can take the baltic states probably, surprising Nato. Europeans, on the other hand, have not focussed their forces on the eastern frontline, but scattered all across Europe, away from the eastern borders. Even that force of 300 thousand is planned to be stationed not in the endangered territories, but mostly in its individual national homebases, far away. And ammo stocks are unexcusably low.

The Russians may have second and thjrd grade equipment only, but it nevertheless shoots. Ammo for that they have plenty, it looks like.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by August

Agree 100% Catfish.

IMO there is really no such thing as a European "normal". Viewed historically the past 77 years, or at least the last 31, have been an uncharacteristically peaceful period in European History and I have often wondered how long it would last.

Seems we lived in golden times indeed. I wonder if things would have developed differently with Russia (after 1990) being in NATO and/or the EU but this option is over anyway.

Originally Posted by Skybird

They have the intention to continue beyond Ukraine, yes - but do they have the ability [...]
The Russians may have second and thjrd grade equipment only, but it nevertheless shoots. Ammo for that they have plenty, it looks like.

Putin has enough conventional if older weapons for a limited war in Europe, if China holds still. He has to mobilize more troops of course.
(Maybe China will intervene though, with who do they want to trade to bolster their own economy. With Russia or North Korea?)

And if he does not do it immediately it will come in few years, when the depleted reserves have been filled up again. Making it only harder for all.

Putin only needs to invent a staged "attack" by Nato on russian soil so he has to "react".

He did so before, from staged assassinations, to faked bomb laying, to the school incident, to "protect" russians in Donbas. He will create the pretext for a general mobilization against the evil invaders, we heard all this before.
"Seit 5 Uhr 45 wird jetzt zurueck [sic!] geschossen!"

Never expect Putin or Medwedew would not do it.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Putin has enough conventional if older weapons for a limited war in Europe, if China holds still. He has to mobilize more troops of course.
(Maybe China will intervene though, with who do they want to trade to bolster their own economy. With Russia or North Korea?)

It is declared goal of Xi, since a few years, to make China autark and self-supplying, and to disconnect the core economy from international trading dependencies. The sanctions tried on Russia will strengthen that will. Xi wants Taiwan, no matter the cost, and he will learn from the war now two things: China mjust become more autark, and the first attack must be done with absolutely superior and totally devastating firepower, overwhelming the defender already in the beginning. The Ukraine war possibly has drivben the Chinese attack on Taiwan a bit back in time - but it then will be conducted with much, much more brute force and firepower. Thats the two lessons China learns form this.

And if he does not do it immediately it will come in few years, when the depleted reserves have been filled up again. Making it only harder for all.

Completely agree.

Putin only needs to invent a staged "attack" by Nato on russian soil so he has to "react".

He did so before, from staged assassinations, to faked bomb laying, to the school incident, to "protect" russians in Donbas. He will create the pretext for a general mobilization against the evil invaders, we heard all this before.
"Seit 5 Uhr 45 wird jetzt zurueck [sic!] geschossen!"

Never expect Putin or Medwedew would not do it.

Again, I see it like you.

I only doubt that Europe and especially Bubble-Olaf have understood this. Putin did not cause the crisis Europe is being worn out by, but he accelerated and accentuated them, so does Corona, both are not the origins but catalysts for Europe's self-made many crisis.

Looking only at the conditions in Europoe and ignoring Russia'S capabilties right now, the situation now is extremely right for Russia to try whatever it wants to do regarding Europe. Europe is weak and in disarray, hollowed out, internally split (if it ever was united...), every month new rifts appear and widen, several key governments are either knocked out or are busy with themselves, the economy is in recession and de facto in stagflation, the loans-prices spiral is accelerating every month, the currency is blowing up, the logistic supply chains are disrupted, the militaries are only shadows of their cold war selfs, and the celebrated multi-diverse identity of a stellar ammount of social subgroups in European nations' societies has drastically reduced the needed feeling of shared identity and unity that is precondition to bear a strong resistence will and strength to stand your ground in a fight. Its not a team, its a group of jealous narcissistic self-promoters Europe has to show up with

Russia sees all this - and slobbers. Its decades of intel campaigns to undermine the peace movement, the ultra-right, the anti-atom movement, the left groups, the gender groups (due to their corrosive effect on society and inner politics, not because of their claimed ideals), Brexit, Trump, fascists in Italy, France, weak and indifference in Germany, separatist tendencies in some Eastern European countries, a trend for isolationism in the US - it all pays off for Russia.

Putin is a psychopath, and he made a huge mistake when calculating the war in Ukraine. Possibly because he was ill-advised by his intimidated military advisers. But since then, he has taken control again, calculates the war again, plays the smart game to manipulate Europe and to keep it busy over its energy needs. He has a brutal personality structure, but nevertheless he plays an icy-cold global chess match again, keeps the Europeans running around like hens. And yet, many again expect him to be stupid, to act to his disadvantage (his - not necessarily Russians' !), to comply with rules that are to his disadvantage. Instead he keeps the Europeans runnign around, and slowy lets tim e do its job and corrode soldiarity and unity in the West. That is not the behaviour of a stupid player, but a sly, cold-blooded fox. Will we ever stop underestimating him?

More and more military analysts in the West dare to comment that the ukraine does not have the ressources and manpower to launch the expected real big counter-offensive in the East and South. So, comes time, comes momentum again - for Russia, probably. Russia can live with a long lasting war in the ukraine. Can Europe? Look around on the political stage in Germany, and you know the answer.

Mordered destroyed Arthur's brotherhood of the round table. And, as you said, Europe has come to the end of its golden age after WW2. They call it a Zeitenwende, but still behave as if all this drama of the past years were just an intermezzo that will go over, and after that we return to the previous routines. It won't go that way, its the new reality to stay.

Und Deutschland wird noch lernen, wie man Bauklötze staunt, and not in a positive context. For us in Germany, this year and the next years will be a true revival experience, governed and managed by the Augsburger Puppenkiste.

[Skybird]

Wars need weapons ammiunition - and financial ammunition. But the Ukraine is broke.



The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:


Holders of Ukrainian government bonds still have until the end of next week to respond to the Kiev government's request for a two-year moratorium on payments. But the rating agencies have already made their judgment: They doubt the fundamental ability of Ukraine, which is at war with Russia, to service debts in foreign currency in the long term.

New uncertainties around grain exports after the shelling of the port of Odessa are also unlikely to raise expectations of stabilization of Ukrainian agricultural exports. Before the invasion, they had accounted for one-fifth of export value and were a major foreign exchange earner. In any case, Scope Ratings and Fitch, the more important agency in the market, have already downgraded Ukraine's credit rating to "C," the lowest level before default. Kiev is further encouraging this by prohibiting the state-owned company Naftogaz from servicing maturing paper.

The two-year deferral requested by Kiev covers 13 Ukrainian sovereign Eurobonds worth about $20 billion, of which $3 billion matures by July 2024, according to Dennis Shen of Scope Ratings. With the deferred interest payments on the Eurobonds, the savings by 2024 would amount to about $5 billion. The restructuring would ease financing pressures on Kiev.

Suspending debt service would send a signal to private Eurobond borrowers. At the end of April, non-government Eurobond debt stood at $6.5 billion, according to Scope Ratings.

Two weeks ago, state-owned Naftogaz asked its creditors to defer repayments and interest for two years under pressure from the government. After they rejected that and Naftogaz wanted to pay what the group feels it is financially able to, the government prevented that, it says Monday: "As of the publication of this notice, Naftogaz has not received government approval and therefore cannot transfer funds for payments to bondholders." However, it said it now wants to talk to creditors again.

Fitch had previously downgraded Naftogaz to "C." Other Ukrainian companies, such as Dtek Energy, which belongs to the empire of billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, are hardly rated better.
The risk of non-payment in the future remains high

According to Scope Ratings, the recession, the uncertainty of war and the risk to the long-term sustainability of sovereign debt "increase the likelihood that a more substantial debt restructuring may be required in the medium term following a possible suspension of selected external debt." A prolonged conflict with Russia increases military and humanitarian costs and delays the prospect of a full economic recovery, it said. A long-term reconstruction program would affect debt sustainability even if the recovery progressed, he said.

Fitch also believes that Ukraine and its creditors will not be able to avoid debt restructuring. The only question is the timing. Even if creditors currently accept the moratorium offer with the necessary two-thirds majority, the risk of missed payments in the future remains high, "as the government seeks to preserve liquidity in the face of acute pressure on military spending."

Given the considerable international goodwill toward Ukraine, there is a likelihood that it will move toward debt relief in the longer term, Scope Ratings' Shen writes. The downgrade of Ukraine's foreign currency loans will also have a limited impact, if any, on official aid from the EU, the U.S. or other multilateral or bilateral organizations. In fact, he said, the aid actions of multilateral creditors and financiers had already accelerated in the face of Kiev's acute financial woes, as evidenced by a group of G-7 countries that had suspended debt servicing for Ukraine until at least 2023. They had also urged other creditors to do the same. Major funds such as Blackrock and Fidelity have already agreed, according to information provided by the Kiev government.

Kiev also relies heavily on domestic financing through local currency bonds. Of the nearly $25 billion it has raised through July 21, 2022, the equivalent of $7.7 billion has been raised through the central bank and another $4.2 billion through the issuance of local government bonds. Slightly more, just under $13 billion, was injected during the period by international donors such as the U.S., EU, World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Another $20 billion has already been pledged.

The high level of credit financing reflects Ukraine's strained economic and financial situation. Economic output is likely to collapse by a third this year, and tax revenues have also fallen. An excessively large share of financing is therefore secured through loans, which poses a problem for public debt in the medium term.

According to unanimous estimates, the budget deficit will reach a record level, and the national debt will almost double to about 90 percent. Inflation was near 22 percent in June. The central bank is seeking to contain the expected rise to 30 percent with record high interest rates of 25 percent. Analysts such as those at Deutsche Bank and Raiffeisenbank International are already bracing for further rate hikes.