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Old 05-28-22, 08:36 AM   #4261
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Old 05-28-22, 10:06 AM   #4262
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Oh great, everything we know or have learned in the past is wrong.
Where have I heard that before?
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Old 05-28-22, 12:44 PM   #4263
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Ukraine for today received enough 'Harpoon' anti-ship missiles to sink the entire Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, – Serhii Bratchuk, speaker of the Odesa Regional Military Administration
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Old 05-28-22, 12:50 PM   #4264
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Vladimir Putin has had an 80-minute phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In the call the Russian leader was urged to hold "serious negotiations" with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Macron and Scholz also called for the release of Azovstal prisoners who are being held by Russia after their surrender at the steelworks.

Meanwhile, Russia's defence ministry says the town of Lyman in the Donetsk region has fallen under the full control of Russian forces.

Street fights are taking place in Severodonetsk as Russian forces seek to take control of the city, the regional governor Serhiy Haidai says.

Russia has scrapped its age limit for professional soldiers, paving the way for more civilian experts to be recruited for the Ukraine conflict.
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Old 05-28-22, 12:55 PM   #4265
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Old 05-28-22, 12:57 PM   #4266
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Old 05-28-22, 01:09 PM   #4267
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Ukrainian strategy seems not only not to withdraw South Donetsk, but to reinforce the whole Donbas area Ukrainian high command, even reinforcing the far tip of the pocket. There are signs in the that the Ukrainians are going to attrit the Russians down by making them fight for the whole pocket including Severdonetsk. It seems to be that the Ukrainian command has determined that they can make the Russians fight for the whole pocket, and that the wastage they can inflict on the Russians is worth the risk. It is also interesting to see the irritation expressed at some who were arguing the pocket was collapsing.

US DOD spokesperson J Kirby said yesterday that a number of the howitzer systems the US has sent to Ukraine are fighting in the Donbas. And moreover, it seems that the Ukrainians want to fight for what they have there. Ukrainians will continue to resist there. This would be consistent with their strategy in the beginning, to hold onto cities and force the Russians to try and fight street to street and bleed them down.

The communiqué from the Ukrainian armed forces also is portraying the situation in the Donbas as relatively under control. Claims to have beaten back Russian attacks around Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut. Russian attempts to expand out again from the Popasna bulge and towards South Donetsk have been unsuccessful. Lots of reliance on artillery, though, wonder if the Russians are running out of the mass of front line armor and APC's needed to advance. It has been a noticeable decline in Ukrainian claims of Russian losses in the last week.
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Old 05-28-22, 01:10 PM   #4268
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Russia has scrapped its age limit for professional soldiers, paving the way for more civilian experts to be recruited for the Ukraine conflict.

President Vladimir Putin has signed a law enabling people over 40 to enlist for the armed forces. They are expected to be people of normal working age.

Previously the army had age limits of 18-40 years for Russians and 18-30 for foreigners.

Russia is presenting it as a move to recruit more technical specialists.

The new law says specialists are required to operate high-precision weapons and "experience shows that they become such by the age of 40-45". More medics, engineers and communications experts may also be recruited.

Ukrainian and Western military experts say Russia has suffered heavy losses in the war: about 30,000 killed, according to Ukraine, while the UK government estimates the toll at about 15,000. In comparison, Soviet losses in nine years of war in Afghanistan were about 15,000.

Russia gave a total of 1,351 dead on 25 March, which it has not updated.

President Putin has avoided large-scale conscription for what Russia calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

But in March Russia's defence ministry admitted that some conscripts were involved in the conflict and some had been taken prisoner by Ukrainian forces. The defence ministry stressed that it was not official policy to send conscripts into battle.

Later, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said that those conscripts drafted into the military this spring would not be sent to any hotspots.

Conscription, also known as the draft, is a centuries-old practice for states to require large numbers of men to serve in the military. Russia's conscription, dating back to tsarist times, obliges men aged 18 to 27 to serve one year in the military. But many get exemptions on medical grounds, or because they are students.

Russia now has more than 400,000 professional "contract" soldiers in its 900,000-strong active armed forces. It can also mobilise about two million reservists, military analysts say.

Ukraine's army is a lot smaller - it has an estimated 200,000 active troops and 900,000 reservists, though it has boosted those numbers through mass mobilisation since Russia invaded on 24 February.

Under its current martial law, Ukraine forbids men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country, demanding that they stay and fight. So women, children and the elderly form the vast majority of refugees fleeing to neighbouring countries.

Ukraine's military says it is not yet conscripting women, but some can be drafted exceptionally if their skills in medicine, IT or other areas are needed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61619638
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Old 05-28-22, 02:59 PM   #4269
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According to Ukrainian military forces the Danish RGM-84 or harpoon have arrived. The Danes expect they will mount the firing-thing on a truck.

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Old 05-29-22, 05:50 AM   #4270
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From the Neue Zürcher Zeitung:


"Putin will not be satisfied with non-alignment. His goal is to bring Ukraine 'home to the empire'."

Leading German politicians have still not understood the extent of Russian revanchism, says Ralf Fücks. If Olaf Scholz gets his way with his hesitant stance, Kiev would have to accept a Russian dictatorial peace, believes the founder of the Berlin-based think tank Zentrum Liberale Moderne.

Mr. Fücks, you told me in the run-up to this interview that you had stumbled across an interview with Berlin political scientist Herfried Münkler that appeared in this newspaper. In it, Münkler called for a neutral Ukraine with European security guarantees. Is he a realist, while you are an idealist?

I think that is a false juxtaposition. At the beginning of the war, he was not a realist, but a defeatist: At that time, he predicted a rapid collapse of Ukraine because, like many supposed military experts, he underestimated its fighting power and overestimated the strength of the Russian army. But Münkler is also not a realist with regard to Russia's war aims: Vladimir Putin will not be satisfied with a non-aligned Ukraine. His goal is to bring Ukraine "home to the empire." What's more, he wants to revise NATO's eastward expansion and demands the withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from Europe. In fact, this would lead to Russian military dominance over Europe. Last but not least, Münkler reduces international politics to pure power politics without any normative dimension. But it is in our very own interest to defend a normative peace order in Europe and beyond.

Münkler also argues on the basis of geography: Ukraine is situated between Western Europe and Russia and therefore has only limited alliance potential.

This is an unhistorical view, since such spaces are constantly shifting. The Baltic states, as former Soviet republics, are now in NATO. The Russian attack triggered a new geopolitical dynamic: That Sweden and Finland would join the Western alliance seemed almost inconceivable a year ago; now it could happen at the speed of light. A similar acceleration could occur in the case of Ukraine, which, after all, has been on its way to the West at least since the Maidan protests of 2014. The idea that such a nation could be locked up in no-man's land against its will, which in reality would mean handing it over to Russian influence, is completely unrealistic.

Voices can also be heard, especially in Washington, saying that now is the opportunity to eliminate Russia as a major power and thus as a source of unrest for the foreseeable future. Is there a danger that Ukraine will be instrumentalized?

But Ukraine is the subject of this conflict! The decision to fight came from Ukraine, not from Washington and certainly not from the EU. Nobody has seriously in mind to attack Russia on its own territory. If Russia retreated today to the lines of February 23, the war would probably be over tomorrow. I doubt whether the West would then be willing to support a continuation of the war, especially since President Selensky has so far not formulated any offensive war aims. But more and more people in Ukraine are saying, "Now we're going to take back all of Donbass and Crimea, too." As far as I can see, however, that is not Selenski's position. He knows that the price in human lives would be very high for that.

What could be the outcome of the war?

I think two scenarios are the most likely: if the West throws its full weight behind it, Ukraine might succeed in pushing the Russians back to the February 23 line and perhaps a bit further toward the border. Then a cease-fire could be concluded, leading to negotiations. The second variant is that Russia does manage to conquer more territory in the south and east and cut Ukraine off from the sea. That would be the worst-case scenario. Whether it happens also depends on us. German politicians have not yet realized that modern wars are material battles in which weapons and ammunition have to be continuously replaced. If Olaf Scholz gets his way with his restrictive policy, we will force Ukraine into a ceasefire for lack of weapons. Then Kiev would have to accept that dictatorial peace on Russian terms, which Scholz says he does not want.

At the end of February, Scholz announced a turnaround, combined with significantly higher spending on the German military. Do you think he will stick to his announcements?

That is the big question. At the very least, major players in German politics have not yet understood the full extent of Russian revanchism. Ultimately, the illusion is still being nurtured that one could return to some form of cooperative arrangement. It has not yet dawned on everyone that we must pursue a strict policy of deterrence and containment toward this regime. Instead, we still see a lot of sympathy for the imperial reflex of Russia, which supposedly cannot be anything other than an empire that dominates other nations. Münkler, after all, also argues this way. But there can be no stable peace order in Europe until Russia takes the step that Germany, France, Britain and others have also had to take: from empire to modern nation-state.

If the war lasts longer, voices calling for a softer line toward Russia could again gain the upper hand in Germany.

That is also my fear: that then those will become louder who say that Ukraine should not make such a fuss and make the famous painful concessions. Henry Kissinger just said this in Davos. The concessions that would then be demanded from Ukraine would not only be of a territorial nature. The Kremlin has reverted to the old Brezhnev doctrine, which provides only limited sovereignty for states it counts as part of its sphere of influence. If we accept that, we will fall back into the division of Europe and the law of the strongest.

After the outbreak of the war, you said you still thought Putin was a coldly calculating power politician. Can there be peace with him, or do we first need regime change in Moscow?

In any case, it is not in our power to topple Putin; the Russians must do that themselves. But we must prevent Russia from starting new wars. And that will only succeed if this war ends with a Russian defeat. We must keep up the offer to Russia to return to the international community. But this is only possible if Moscow abides by the rules of international law and the European peace order.

What could come after Putin? Will chaos break out in Russia then?

Of course, this is possible, especially in the event of a devastating defeat of Russia. Already, some estimates speak of up to 25,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded. If the economic crisis in Russia worsens, centrifugal tendencies cannot be ruled out: National minorities could insist on their right to self-determination. Another possible scenario is a military dictatorship. But it could also be that moderate forces take the helm at some point. Among the economic elite, a majority is likely to support an understanding with the West, if only out of self-interest. There is opposition potential, especially in the large cities. Hundreds of thousands have left the country since February 24. Ultimately, it will take a split among Russia's power elites to initiate change.

They are in favor of giving Ukraine EU candidate status; Chancellor Scholz is opposed. Given the current state of affairs in Ukraine, could such a step have any more than symbolic significance?

I think so. Among all the non-EU countries in Europe, Ukraine is the one with the strongest European will. There is a strong civil society that has driven many changes in recent years. The pro-European dynamic there is much greater than in Serbia, for example. Ukraine would not be a ballast for Europe, but an asset. There is enormous economic potential there: in digitalization, Ukraine is further ahead than Germany in many areas, and there are also great opportunities for close cooperation in renewable energies and agriculture. Agriculture also plays a role in the war: Russia is trying to get its hands on the breadbasket for the Middle East and use it as a strategic lever. Here, too, I think our policy is far too lax: Letting Moscow get away with blockading Ukrainian ports is exacerbating the hunger crisis in Africa and parts of Asia and may trigger new refugee movements that could destabilize Europe.

If the West did anything about the blockade of the ports, it would have to risk the direct conflict with Russia that many fear.


But what would Russia do if a coalition of states that could go beyond NATO sent a military convoy to secure grain ships? Would Putin really dare to start a war against this coalition? I don't think he could use any more military adversaries.

Do you understand that some in Germany are afraid of an escalation, at the end of which there could be a nuclear war in the worst case?

No one can rule out such a development with certainty. But Russia would risk its own destruction by doing so, and I don't believe that a gang of suicide bombers is sitting in the Kremlin. If we let fear of nuclear war dictate our policy, we give Putin a completely free hand to escalate the war. Then the Baltic States and Poland will also be in danger. Russian state television is already calling for a land bridge to Kaliningrad and the annexation of Moldova, Georgia and Kazakhstan.

There is now a lot of talk about the mistakes that Germany has made in its Russian policy in recent decades. Is it enough for German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, for example, to admit that he was wrong about Putin, or would a more in-depth reappraisal be necessary?

I'm not interested in pillorying anyone. But we do need to take a closer look at what went wrong in the past in order to avoid making the same mistakes in the future. Simply saying, "sorry, we were wrong about Putin," and leaving it at that, avoids the necessary break. We need to account for how it was possible that we made our energy supply visibly dependent on Russia. There was a network of politics and business that systematically worked in this direction, and not only among the Social Democrats. The CSU also liked to adorn itself with its good relations with the Kremlin.

How do you see the SPD's dealings with Gerhard Schröder, who is considered a personal friend of Putin's and has earned a lot of money through his work for Russian energy companies?

The SPD has swept this problem under the carpet for far too long. After all, it's not just Schröder alone. As recently as February 2021, the Minister President of Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil, said that we should not make ourselves dependent on Ukraine for our energy supply and that we therefore needed the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. So he fully grasped the geopolitical dimension of the project, and that is precisely why he supported it!

Your own party, the Greens, now stand in the public perception as the ones who did everything right. In fact, by rejecting nuclear energy, they have also contributed to Germany's energy dependence on Russia.

The growing dependence on Russian gas was the blind spot of the nuclear phase-out and also of the accelerated phase-out of coal power, which is to come by 2030. There is nothing to shake about the coal phase-out for climate policy reasons, but the sequence "first nuclear, then coal" dates from a different time. We have not sufficiently addressed the conflicting goals associated with this.

Should Germany now think about phasing out nuclear power?

For me, this is no longer a question of principle; I see it pragmatically: How much would have to be invested to bring the remaining power plants back up to the latest safety standards? Can the supply of fuel rods be secured? Do we still have enough engineers who are familiar with the technology? If this assessment is positive, there is a lot to be said for keeping the operational nuclear power plants on the grid for longer.

About the person
Ralf Fücks
The 70-year-old German is managing partner of the Center for Liberal Modernity, a Berlin-based think tank he founded in 2017 with his wife, Marieluise Beck. Beck and Fücks are both members of the Green Party, where they are categorized as belonging to the realpolitik wing. From 1991 to 1995, Fücks was a member of the Bremen state government as senator for urban development and environmental protection; from 1997 to 2017, he was a board member at the Heinrich Böll Foundation, which is close to his party. The declared goal of the Center for Liberal Modernity is to defend "the rule of law, personal freedom, political pluralism and cultural diversity.



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Old 05-29-22, 05:56 AM   #4271
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Deutsche Welle:


Not all lost territory will be retaken by military means, Zelenskyy says

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the situation was "indescribably difficult" in the country's east, where Russian forces are making gains.
"The situation is very complicated, especially in those areas in the Donbas and Kharkiv region, where the Russian army is trying to squeeze at least some result for themselves," Zelenskyy said in his Saturday video address.
Russian forces stepped up their assault on Severodonetsk on Saturday after claiming to have captured the nearby rail hub of Lyman.
"But our defenses are holding up. It's indescribably difficult there," Zelenskyy said
The Ukrainian leader also said he didn't believe all the land seized by Russia since 2014, which includes Crimea, could be recaptured by force.
"I do not believe that we can restore all of our territory by military means. If we decide to go that way, we will lose hundreds of thousands of people," he said.
He was, however, adamant that "Ukraine will get everything back. Everything."
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Old 05-29-22, 07:00 AM   #4272
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The Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai says civilians have been killed in Severodonetsk, with buildings destroyed in the key eastern city.

President Zelensky has admitted the situation on the front line in Donbas and parts of Kharkiv region is "indescribably difficult" for the Ukrainian army.

Russia’s ambassador to the UK has told the BBC he does not believe his country will use tactical nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine.

Andrei Kelin also denied Russian forces were shelling civilians, and said allegations of war crimes in the town of Bucha were a "fabrication"

Meanwhile, heavy fighting is continuing near Severodonetsk in Luhansk Region, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed forces said.

The update also claims hospitals in annexed Crimea are suspending the admission of civilians to free up beds for wounded Russian soldiers.
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Old 05-29-22, 07:01 AM   #4273
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Russia claims to have killed 300 Ukrainian soldiers in last 24 hours
As we reported earlier, Russia's defence ministry says its missiles have destroyed a large arsenal of Ukrainian army weapons in Kryvyi Rih - the home city of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Now we can bring you more details. Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claims in the last 24 hours more than 300 "nationalists" [Ukrainian soldiers] have been killed.

He also claims a number of other Ukrainian military targets were hit in the offensive, including a Russian defence systems shooting down a Ukrainian SU-25 fighter jet in Dnipro.

He says: "In total, as a result of Russian air strikes, more than 300 nationalists and up to 50 units of military and special equipment of the armed forces of Ukraine were destroyed."
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Old 05-29-22, 07:53 AM   #4274
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Old 05-29-22, 01:01 PM   #4275
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