The CHN/ China thread

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Evergrande files for bankruptcy.



https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/17/b...tcy/index.html

[Jimbuna]

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[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

I agree. What with satellites and listening devices on our rusty but trusty LST Santa Maria, permanently aground in the South China Sea we should ensure and let S.Korea, Phillipines, Japan, and VietNam deal with it (with our 'proxy-style assistance')...with complete understanding that the narrow Bering Strait and the chinkadero concept of "right of innocent passge" is now equally cut off to Sino-intrusion in the Artic Ocean, the demense of US, Canada and Russia. The chinese are of course at liberty to approach by Hudson's Bay! I doubt Bejing will like a page from their own hegemony-playbook being used in return; thus exposing their double standard. I would bet that their 'eternal friendship' Russian partner would not object to one less competitor in its Artic 'backyard'.

I spoke too soon:

Originally Posted by ysterdaze WSJ

A World War II-era ship rusting atop a tiny, teardrop-shaped reef in the South China Sea has become the center of a new round of tensions between the Philippines, a U.S. ally, and China.
The Philippines ran the ship aground 2½ decades ago to assert its claim to the reef, known as Second Thomas Shoal. It keeps a small detachment of marines garrisoned aboard.
China also claims the reef—along with much of the highly contested South China Sea—and considers the grounding illegal. In recent years, its coast guard and fishing militia have built up a strong presence around the reef, shadowing and disrupting vessels supplying the dilapidated ship, called BRP Sierra Madre.
Now the dispute is flaring up. On Aug. 5, a Chinese coast-guard ship blasted a water cannon at a resupply convoy, forcing one of two supply boats to turn around and abandon its mission. Manila says the convoy was carrying food, water, fuel and other supplies for the nine marines currently aboard, and has pledged to try again soon.
Any accident or skirmish could escalate into conflict, with the potential to involve the U.S. After the Aug. 5 incident, the U.S. State Department reaffirmed that an “armed attack” on Philippine vessels would invoke its commitments under the two countries’ mutual-defense treaty.
Beijing says the Philippines is repairing and reinforcing the Sierra Madre to permanently occupy the reef, and objects to any such activities. Philippine officials say they have a right to maintain and repair the ship, which is still a commissioned navy vessel that they say serves as a permanent station for a constant rotation of active troops.
“Whatever we do with it is within our rights and jurisdiction,” said Col. Medel Aguilar, a spokesman for the Philippines armed forces, adding that China doesn’t have the right to tell the Philippines what it can take to the Sierra Madre.
When China’s foreign ministry claimed last week that Manila had promised in the past to remove the Sierra Madre from the reef, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he wasn’t aware of it.
“And let me go further,” he said. “If there does exist such an agreement, I rescind that agreement as of now.”
The fate of Second Thomas Shoal, which the Philippines calls Ayungin and China calls Ren’ai, has implications for the rest of the South China Sea, where Beijing’s claims overlap with those of half a dozen other governments. In 2016, a landmark ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague dismissed China’s claims as baseless. Beijing rejected the ruling.
China has rapidly expanded its presence across the waterway, through which trillions of dollars in trade transits each year. In the Spratly Islands, site of Second Thomas Shoal, it has built outposts and militarized them with missiles, radar systems and runways. In 2012, China seized a feature called Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines.
Manila grounded the Sierra Madre in 1999—responding to China’s 1995 occupation of nearby Mischief Reef, where Beijing had begun building small structures—and has kept a dozen or so people stationed aboard at any given time.

Since then, China has vastly grown its power in the South China Sea. Mischief Reef is now a military base.
Chinese boats are ever-present around Second Thomas Shoal, routinely intimidating and harassing resupply missions, said Commodore Jay Tarriela, a spokesman for the Philippine coast guard. Sometimes Chinese boats sail dangerously close, or blast warnings through loudspeakers, he said. Occasionally, Chinese interference is more aggressive, forcing the Filipinos to turn back.

“The Chinese coast guard are not really fond of keeping to themselves,” Tarriela said. “They have to make us feel their presence, every single time.”

To avoid escalating tensions, the Philippines makes the supply deliveries—typically monthly—with civilian craft it calls “indigenous boats,” which are made of wood and look like fishing vessels. Chartered and manned by the Philippine navy and escorted by two coast-guard vessels, they are too small to carry large cargo or equipment.

The most recent incident was a David-versus-Goliath face-off.
A video clip shot by a crew member aboard one of the supply boats and shared with The Wall Street Journal by the Philippine armed forces shows a Chinese coast-guard vessel blasting a stream of water toward the convoy. The water hits the boat with a loud thud, causing it to rock.

Another clip, released by the Philippine coast guard, shows a Philippine supply boat bobbing along, dwarfed by a Chinese vessel several times its length tailing closely behind. The camera pans across the horizon to reveal at least four other vessels—two belonging to the Chinese coast guard and two that the Philippine coast guard said belonged to Chinese maritime militia.
Resupply missions have been sporadically disrupted since at least 2014. This year, it has happened twice already. In February, China used what the Philippines said was a military-grade laser that temporarily blinded crew.
A video clip shot by a crew member aboard one of the supply boats and shared with The Wall Street Journal by the Philippine armed forces shows a Chinese coast-guard vessel blasting a stream of water toward the convoy. The water hits the boat with a loud thud, causing it to rock.
Another clip, released by the Philippine coast guard, shows a Philippine supply boat bobbing along, dwarfed by a Chinese vessel several times its length tailing closely behind. The camera pans across the horizon to reveal at least four other vessels—two belonging to the Chinese coast guard and two that the Philippine coast guard said belonged to Chinese maritime militia.
Resupply missions have been sporadically disrupted since at least 2014. This year, it has happened twice already. In February, China used what the Philippines said was a military-grade laser that temporarily blinded crew.
Since taking office last year, Marcos has steered the country decisively toward the U.S., a sharp departure from the pro-China policies of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.

While Duterte threatened to rescind Manila-Washington military pacts, such as a visiting-forces agreement that allows American troops and equipment to rotate through the archipelago, Marcos has doubled down on the alliance. In February, the two countries unveiled a major expansion of an Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, effectively extending U.S. access to nine Philippine military bases, from a previous five.

“Of course China notices the change in tone and policy orientation of the new administration,” said Aries Arugay, professor and chair of the department of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman. “They’re testing Marcos.” <The Philippines grounded BRP Sierra Madre on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999.

Bottom Line China simply ''wants it all'' and has a double-standard worthy of any tyrannical dictatorship: It would not tolerate the US sealing off the Bering Straight route to the mineral rich Arctic Ocean it craves; no doubt citing Western "containment of China" that, after the recent deployment of a combined Russian/Chinese flotilla performing tactics off the Aleutian Islands. https://www.newsweek.com/aleutian-is...alaska-1817900

Russian state-owned news agency Tass reported on July 28 that "the warships of Russia and China" were involved in joint patrol in the Pacific Ocean aimed at "strengthening the naval cooperation between Russia and China, maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, monitoring of offshore zones and guarding Russia and China's objects of maritime economic activities."

Tass reported that the Chinese Defense Ministry also confirmed the joint operation, saying it was not "directed against third parties and have nothing to do with the current international and regional situation."

[Skybird]

Six facts show that the “China crash” is wishful thinking. The swan song for the Chinese economy is definitely premature:
1. China is growing twice as fast as the US
2. Falling imports are a sign of strength
3. China's innovative power is increasing
4. China's footprint in Europe is growing
5. China is sitting on a mountain of raw materials
6. China's currency reserves are like an ammunition depot

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

Drastically worsening youth unemployment numbers in China have caused the government to temporarily — or perhaps permanently — stop their publication.

[Aktungbby]

Front page of today's WSJ: China's 40-Year Boom Is Over, Rising Fears of Extended Slump

The conomic model that took counyry from poverty to great power status is broken. The country is drowning in debt and running out of things to build. Parts of China are saddled with under-used bridges and airports. Millionsof aparfments are unoccupied. Returns on investment have sharply declined...

All that, and the Russian unmanned moon rocket, Luna -25 crashed into the moon's South Pole...in a race with India??...it's a good Monday!

[Skybird]

Dont be too early.
From the above link:


1. China grows twice as fast as the U.S.

The IMF forecasts real GDP growth of 5.2 percent in 2023 and 4.5 percent in 2024, making China's GDP equivalent to nearly eight percent of the global economy. Even if China grew by only three percent in 2023, that would be more than half a trillion dollars.

2 Falling imports are a sign of strength

In July 2023, Chinese imports fell 12.4 percent year-on-year, but falling imports are not necessarily bad news for China. According to Jürgen Matthes, "China's government is deliberately going for more and more self-sufficiency to reduce its dependence on the West."

Take the auto industry, for example: the CP Politburo has launched its own electric car offensive. In the Middle Kingdom, people drive a BYD and not a Volkswagen. In the first five months, the Chinese market leader sold three times as many electric cars in its home country as all Western car brands combined. This is reflected in falling import figures.

3 China's innovative strength on the rise

The inventiveness of the Chinese is increasing, as shown by the number of patent applications at the European Patent Office. In 2022, 19,041 Chinese patents were registered there - an increase of 15 percent compared to the previous year and fourth place in a global country comparison.

4. China's footprint in Europe is growing stronger


In a recent study, the Institute of German Business concludes that Chinese goods are becoming increasingly important for the EU market. While in 2000 the share of EU imports from China was still 2.6 percent, the share grew to 8.8 percent last year.

Europeans mainly buy computers and other electrical and optical equipment from Chinese production. Here, the share grew from 4.5 percent (2000) to 27.4 percent (2022) in the same period.

5 China sits on a mountain of raw materials

The so-called rare earths play a crucial role in the manufacture of all kinds of electronic products. With a market share of nearly 70 percent, China is the leading producer of these raw materials. Of all rare earths on the world market, 34 percent come directly from imports from China.

6 China's currency reserves resemble an ammunition depot

The Chinese currency, the yuan, has depreciated six percent against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year. According to media reports, Chinese authorities have now instructed state-owned banks to intervene more in the foreign exchange market this week to prevent a rise in the yuan's volatility.

China can afford such interventions. Its currency reserves are an expression of strength - and they are significantly higher than those of the other industrialized nations. Beijing has $3.3 trillion stashed away for times of crisis. Japan, in second place, has only 1.3 trillion US dollars. At the end of 2022, Germany was hoarding just under 300 billion US dollars.

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[em2nought]

Maybe related to that missing submarine?