The CHN/ China thread

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

The Chinese-Taiwanese issue is a Gordian knot

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The Chinese-Taiwanese issue is a Gordian knot

Markus

Then only the Alexander manouver helps.

[Jimbuna]

I much prefer the Heimlich Maneuver myself.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Quite confused.

He referred to the past when Taiwan was no issue and the US-China relation was strong.

Well, China simply lacked the military strength to make Taiwan a hot topic. Like China also played nicier in the South Chinese Sea, and then form some point on no longer did. Because it got strogn enpiugh to no longe rneeding to.

Stop living with your head stuck in the past. He sounds a bit like many Europeans sounded regarding Russia, not to provoke it and respecting its red lines. See where it got us.

[mapuc]

The big question here is.

Would China put everything at stake and invade Taiwan..?

I doubt it to be honest. They have manage to become the second biggest power

Put all this at risc for taking Taiwan.

Well then I'm not the Chinese leader, so I don't know what makes him go(understanding their mentality)

My former post about the problem being a Gordian knot
Shall be seen in as the factor to satisfy both part in this infected issue.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

China will eventually decide if it is worth risking trade with the west.

[Skybird]

I dont bet a dime anymore on that trade with the West still is China's priority. It was so, in the past. That is over. I think they have moved away from that position. Taiwan. Recently Xi has clearly indicated that he is accpeting economic turmoils with the West if that is the price to go after Taiwan.



Taiwan ist the priority for Xi. Taiwan, and then Taiwan again.

[Jimbuna]

Fair enough, that's tor viewpoint but only time will tell.

[Catfish]

The Daimler-Benz boss has just announced that the company will not severe ties with China since the business connections are too much interwoven by now.
If, on the other hand, the trade numbers with "the west" fall below a certain margin, China may decide that invading The Republic of China (Taiwan) is more worth than the trade with foreigners.

[Jimbuna]

^ Yep, pretty much what I'm thinking

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Quite confused.

Don't be.

You're just watching a vid from a pro-PRC troll.

The PRC have been building up their military for the last 20 years because....reasons??

Check out a map of Taiwan and you'll see a bunch of islands fairly close to the shore of the PRC. Guess who owns them? Here's a hint, they aren't owned by China or the PRC.

Back in the 1940's, Chang kia-skek ran the Chinese Army while Mao was busy being a communist insurgent while keeping his head down.

Chang was a tyrant, but Chang wasn't a dummy. Mao allied with Chang's forces to defeat their common enemy. Once the Japanese Army was gone, Mao quickly turned on Chang and drove him and his loyal forces to Formosa/Taiwan. There, Chang and his loyalists built Taiwan into what it is today.

Meanwhile, Mao had "people power" but not much else. While Chang stayed as a loyal ally of the US, Mao became a strong ally of the Soviet Union- until he wasn't. In the 1960's, Mao denounced the Soviets as "not being as communist as us". To put this in perspective, write a note that says you own all of the land in your town and deliver it to the clerk in your town hall. The odds are good you'll get tossed out by the county sheriff and your ### will land on a street, which is basically what happened. This was why their aircraft and military hardware still look like throwbacks to 1950's. As it turned out, "people power" could copy and build a LOT of stuff- they just couldn't design it.

Please pay attention to that last paragraph. It carries over to today.

Speaking of Today, what the heck is going on?
Well, the PRC were the bastion of communism and socialism- until they weren't. Kind of. Its complicated.

In the 1970's the US and President Nixon wanted to cool things down with the PRC. The PRC kept turning up in other wars, and always on the opposite lines. Maybe if the US could sweeten the pot, the PRC might chill out?

Again, the PRC still had "people power" and US companies wanted stuff manufactured for cheap. No strikes, no cost of living wage hikes, just build stuff and we'll buy it (cheap). By the 1990's, the PRC had a policy towards the US and Europe of "Tell us how big you want the factory to be and we'll have it built by next month". It was an offer too good to refuse.

By the 2000's, this arrangement began to sour and by 2010 things went down like this- China would build that new factory and the day shift would build and ship stuff to the US and Europe. While the other two shifts would build the same thing with different labels for the local population and the Asian market as a whole. Except, the company who green lit the factory in the first place would make nada on the stuff that wasn't shipped to them.
"Hey, that's OUR factory!!"
"Not really, its on OUR land and WE built it."
"But those are OUR plans and copyrights!"
"Yes, good luck with that".

These firms started to grumble, so the PRC would quickly round up all of the Execs and foreign trainers/workers and bus them off to the airport for deportation. If the company wanted to sue, fine. Bring a case in your country and we'll get around to it, someday. Or maybe not, you wanted it cheap- you GOT it cheap.

So, why does the PRC insist on biting the hands that feed it? I have no frikken clue.

[Skybird]

I meant the guy in that video was confused. He trains a lot to successfully run from reality.

So, why does the PRC insist on biting the hands that feed it? I have no frikken clue.

Why is Putin so obsessed with Crimea and Ukraine?


Does it even matter?



Taiwan means chips. Taiwan produces even in continental China. Destroying that means getting strong oneself by weakening the rest of the world eocnomically. Controlling Taiwain means to sell chips atr Chiense conditions and put a knife at the world's throat. Its also about unrestriocted, undetected access of China'sa navy to the blue water pacific. The chain of islanmds held by its opponents, curently prevents such undeteced passages. Nexct, ther eis the Chinese self-perpceiton of being the best of the human race, the cradle of human civilization, the centre of the Earth, and the navel of th universe. And finally there is Xi's belief that it is his role to be the new god-emperor thatr brigns the Chinese era to the globe and makes all others, including the US, kneeling at China's feet. The past centuries of Wester cultural dominance were just a historic mishap, an accident, and that is now over, so China reasons. Reestablishing Chinese allmight and centralist role is just the reestablishing of the natural, nature-wanted order.


China does not tick by the rules of Western reason. Heck, not even Western politics tick by Western reason most of the time.

[ET2SN]

Like I said, he's a pro-PRC troll.
The idea isn't to re-imagine a new reality. Just stir up as much doubts and questions as he can.


Meanwhile, I think we're missing the ball on Taiwan.
If you want to understand what the PRC wants, look at Hong Kong, or what's left of it.

This is another case of roasting the goose who laid the golden eggs.
Will China and the PRC learn anything from Hong Kong? I doubt it.