Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Madrid goes head-to-head with Berlin and says it mulls the training for and delivery of Leopard-2A4 tanks from its reserves. Training should take placee in Lithuania and Spain.

Now it counts! We will see whether or not Berlin dares to vetoe against this or not (usually selling arms to other countries includes clauses that the customer needs permission to use these weapons in certain ways or hand them on to other follow-on customers).

However, there are videos showing that the Russians bring in T-80s on trains, and in huge numbers. These so far were surprisingly absent, although the Russians have plenty of them in mothballed reserves. Probably because for the Russians they are a logistics nightmare due to their much higher fuel demands. Lets hope they end up like the King Tigers in the Ardennes.

[Rockstar]

Poland has gone above and beyond the call of duty and for good reasons. He also alludes to the idea Germany has provided more than what they're letting on

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel, refering also to a text by the Washington Post.


The Russian war of aggression has been raging in Ukraine for more than 100 days. Villages and towns are attacked daily, and on Sunday morning the capital Kiev was attacked again for the first time in several weeks. Many people are dying every day - on both sides. Every day people have to flee their homes. So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not been able to score any major military successes.

This is not least due to the support Ukraine receives from the West: Weapons, intelligence information as well as humanitarian aid and not to forget, of course: a lot of money. Only in this way has Ukraine, with its President Volodymyr Selenskyj, been able to keep the numerically clearly superior enemy in check so far, and even to drive him out of some already conquered territories.

No one can really estimate how long this war in Europe will last.

"It may drag on for another two to six months," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mychajlo Podolyak said Friday evening in an interview with the opposition Russian online portal "Medusa." There will be negotiations only when the situation on the battlefield changes and Russia no longer feels it can dictate terms, Podolyak said. In the end, he said, it would depend on how the mood in the societies of Europe, Ukraine and Russia changed.

Podoljak's statement alluded to a point that could indeed become decisive for the war - the question of how long the West will be willing to support Ukraine to the extent it has done so far - not least with the sanctions that have long since been adopted and are having an impact around the world. And if a report in the renowned "Washington Post" is to be believed, this is precisely the Russian dictator's new strategy.

According to the paper, Putin is preparing for a long war of attrition over Ukraine and will try to use economic weapons such as a blockade of Ukrainian grain exports to diminish the West's support for Kiev, according to members of the Russian business elite, the paper writes. Putin believes "that the West will be exhausted," the paper quotes an allegedly well-connected Russian billionaire who, the paper says, wished to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation.

Putin may not have expected the West's initially strong and unified response, "but now he is trying to reshape the situation, and he believes he will win in the long run," the billionaire said. Western leaders are prone to election cycles, he said, and Putin believes "that public opinion can change in a day."

Putin "is a very patient man. He can afford to wait six to nine months," the billionaire explained. "He can control Russian society much better than the West can control its society."

The paper also quotes a Russian official who, according to the report, is close to Moscow diplomatic circles and also wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.

The embargo on Russian seaborne oil exports announced by the European Union this week - hailed by European Council President Charles Michel as maximum "pressure on Russia to end the war" - would have "little impact in the short term," the official reportedly said. "The mood in the Kremlin is that we can't lose - no matter what the price."

And that attitude is reflected in official statements it Kremlin. "The West has made one mistake after another, which has led to growing crises, and to say that this is all due to what is happening in Ukraine and what Putin is doing is wrong," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Washington Post.

Former European Bank for Reconstruction and Development chief economist Sergei Guriev told the newspaper that Putin has little choice but to continue the war in the hope that Ukraine's grain blockade "will lead to instability in the Middle East and trigger a new wave of refugees."

The paper also cites interview statements by the head of Russia's Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, in this regard. According to the newspaper, Patrushev, who is considered a hardliner, is one of the few people who still have access to Putin.

In several interviews, the paper said, the actually publicity-shy former KGB companion of Putin's had stressed that Europe was on the brink of a "deep economic and political crisis," with rising inflation and falling living standards already affecting the mood of Europeans, and that a new migrant crisis would create new security threats.


"The world is gradually entering an unprecedented food crisis. Tens of millions of people in Africa or the Middle East will be on the brink of starvation - because of the West. To survive, they will flee to Europe. I am not sure if Europe will survive the crisis," Patrushev reportedly said in one of the interviews to the Russian state newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

According to the Washington Post report, the Kremlin is already seeing the first signs that the West's stance is beginning to crumble. For example, the weeks of diplomatic haggling over the terms of the EU oil embargo would be seen as a sign of the West's waning resolve, according to economic experts and the Russian official.

Putin is therefore also likely to have been pleased by French President Emmanuel Macron's recent statement. The latter had said in an interview on Saturday that Putin must not be humiliated so that a diplomatic solution could be found after an end to the fighting in Ukraine. "We must not humiliate Russia so that the day the fighting stops, we can use diplomatic means to build a launch pad," the president said. "I am convinced that France's role is to be a mediating power."


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


With the oil embargo already indicating clear rifts within the EU, and mounting economical costs, it indeed is the question whether the Europeans have the long breath needed here. And the US, the Democrats, are slipping and sliding towards to huge political defeats at the mid term elections and 2024. If things go according to announcements, then in early autumn the war may see a turning point in favour of the Ukraine, but in the longer time perspective beyond that the clock is definitely ticking against it.

Which is even more a concern that France and Germany may want to try forcing the Ukraine into accepting a deal of which they - I say: wrongly - assume it would appease Putin enough so that things can return a bit to business as before again. So that they can deal with the political agendas at gome again.

[Dargo]

The Russian military has confirmed the missile attack on the Ukrainian capital Kiev. The missiles were fired at targets in a suburb of the city. This, according to the Russians, included the destruction of T-72 tanks, which had been stored in a workshop for train cars. The Soviet-era tanks had been supplied to Ukraine by Eastern European countries.

Ukraine denies that tanks were destroyed, but does confirm that four missiles struck a railroad workshop. According to the top man of the Ukrainian railroads, no tanks were stored there.

This is the first time in weeks that missiles have been fired at the Ukrainian capital. According to Ukraine, the projectiles were fired from the Caspian Sea. One of the missiles was destroyed by the air defense system, according to the military. According to the Russians, the attack was carried out with "high-precision long-range missiles."

As far as is known, there were no deaths in the missile attack. One injured person was taken to the hospital.

A Russian missile that may have been on its way to Kiev flew "dangerously close" to a nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, says state energy company Energoatom. The plant in question was in Yuzhnoöekrajinsk, one of the country's largest nuclear power plants. If the missile had hit the plant, the consequences would have been catastrophic, according to Energoatom.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Der Tagesspiegel, refering also to a text by the Washington Post.


The Russian war of aggression has been raging in Ukraine for more than 100 days. Villages and towns are attacked daily, and on Sunday morning the capital Kiev was attacked again for the first time in several weeks. Many people are dying every day - on both sides. Every day people have to flee their homes. So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not been able to score any major military successes.

This is not least due to the support Ukraine receives from the West: Weapons, intelligence information as well as humanitarian aid and not to forget, of course: a lot of money. Only in this way has Ukraine, with its President Volodymyr Selenskyj, been able to keep the numerically clearly superior enemy in check so far, and even to drive him out of some already conquered territories.

No one can really estimate how long this war in Europe will last.

"It may drag on for another two to six months," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mychajlo Podolyak said Friday evening in an interview with the opposition Russian online portal "Medusa." There will be negotiations only when the situation on the battlefield changes and Russia no longer feels it can dictate terms, Podolyak said. In the end, he said, it would depend on how the mood in the societies of Europe, Ukraine and Russia changed.

Podoljak's statement alluded to a point that could indeed become decisive for the war - the question of how long the West will be willing to support Ukraine to the extent it has done so far - not least with the sanctions that have long since been adopted and are having an impact around the world. And if a report in the renowned "Washington Post" is to be believed, this is precisely the Russian dictator's new strategy.

According to the paper, Putin is preparing for a long war of attrition over Ukraine and will try to use economic weapons such as a blockade of Ukrainian grain exports to diminish the West's support for Kiev, according to members of the Russian business elite, the paper writes. Putin believes "that the West will be exhausted," the paper quotes an allegedly well-connected Russian billionaire who, the paper says, wished to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation.

Putin may not have expected the West's initially strong and unified response, "but now he is trying to reshape the situation, and he believes he will win in the long run," the billionaire said. Western leaders are prone to election cycles, he said, and Putin believes "that public opinion can change in a day."

Putin "is a very patient man. He can afford to wait six to nine months," the billionaire explained. "He can control Russian society much better than the West can control its society."

The paper also quotes a Russian official who, according to the report, is close to Moscow diplomatic circles and also wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.

The embargo on Russian seaborne oil exports announced by the European Union this week - hailed by European Council President Charles Michel as maximum "pressure on Russia to end the war" - would have "little impact in the short term," the official reportedly said. "The mood in the Kremlin is that we can't lose - no matter what the price."

And that attitude is reflected in official statements it Kremlin. "The West has made one mistake after another, which has led to growing crises, and to say that this is all due to what is happening in Ukraine and what Putin is doing is wrong," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Washington Post.

Former European Bank for Reconstruction and Development chief economist Sergei Guriev told the newspaper that Putin has little choice but to continue the war in the hope that Ukraine's grain blockade "will lead to instability in the Middle East and trigger a new wave of refugees."

The paper also cites interview statements by the head of Russia's Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, in this regard. According to the newspaper, Patrushev, who is considered a hardliner, is one of the few people who still have access to Putin.

In several interviews, the paper said, the actually publicity-shy former KGB companion of Putin's had stressed that Europe was on the brink of a "deep economic and political crisis," with rising inflation and falling living standards already affecting the mood of Europeans, and that a new migrant crisis would create new security threats.


"The world is gradually entering an unprecedented food crisis. Tens of millions of people in Africa or the Middle East will be on the brink of starvation - because of the West. To survive, they will flee to Europe. I am not sure if Europe will survive the crisis," Patrushev reportedly said in one of the interviews to the Russian state newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

According to the Washington Post report, the Kremlin is already seeing the first signs that the West's stance is beginning to crumble. For example, the weeks of diplomatic haggling over the terms of the EU oil embargo would be seen as a sign of the West's waning resolve, according to economic experts and the Russian official.

Putin is therefore also likely to have been pleased by French President Emmanuel Macron's recent statement. The latter had said in an interview on Saturday that Putin must not be humiliated so that a diplomatic solution could be found after an end to the fighting in Ukraine. "We must not humiliate Russia so that the day the fighting stops, we can use diplomatic means to build a launch pad," the president said. "I am convinced that France's role is to be a mediating power."


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


With the oil embargo already indicating clear rifts within the EU, and mounting economical costs, it indeed is the question whether the Europeans have the long breath needed here. And the US, the Democrats, are slipping and sliding towards to huge political defeats at the mid term elections and 2024. If things go according to announcements, then in early autumn the war may see a turning point in favour of the Ukraine, but in the longer time perspective beyond that the clock is definitely ticking against it.

Which is even more a concern that France and Germany may want to try forcing the Ukraine into accepting a deal of which they - I say: wrongly - assume it would appease Putin enough so that things can return a bit to business as before again. So that they can deal with the political agendas at gome again.

Think we give France and Germany too much power here, there are 25 other countries that also have a say in the EU.

[Jimbuna]

Russia will expand the list of targets it will attack in Ukraine if Western countries send them long-range weapons, President Vladimir Putin says.

The warning came as explosions shook parts of Kyiv on Sunday in the first assault on the capital city for weeks.

Russia says it hit tanks supplied by European countries. Ukraine says it was a railway repair plant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61697093

[Dargo]

Major General of the Russian army Roman Kutuzov died during a special operation in Ukraine, war correspondent Alexander Sladkov said. According to him, Kutuzov led the soldiers on the attack and died in battle.

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Russia will expand the list of targets it will attack in Ukraine if Western countries send them long-range weapons, President Vladimir Putin says.

The warning came as explosions shook parts of Kyiv on Sunday in the first assault on the capital city for weeks.

Russia says it hit tanks supplied by European countries. Ukraine says it was a railway repair plant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61697093

Says Russia's little scared bunker boy if it's so easy to strike targets... how come his planned 3 day invasion of Ukraine is now into its 102 day?

[Catfish]

One can see when he lies ..

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Catfish

One can see when he lies ..

It's easy to see, he begins lying as soon as his lips start moving. I listened to it, what a load of hogwash

[mapuc]

From Danish TV2News

Despite sanctions from the EU and US, 2022 looks likely to be the most profitable year ever for Russia's oil and gas industry.

The situation in Russia at this moment is giving us all a quick lesson in supply and demand.

When demand for a commodity is high, the price goes up.

This also applies to the oil and gas that is currently partly financing Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

US and EU sanctions have boosted demand and, according to new calculations by Bloomberg Economics, the Moscow regime now looks set to make around $800 million a day from oil and gas sales for the rest of the year.

Oil prices alone have risen by 50 percent this year, and while Russia may sell less oil and gas in 2022 than in 2021, total revenue is likely to reach $285 billion this year - 20 percent higher than in 2021, Bloomberg's calculations show.

And it is largely EU countries that have helped finance Russia's surplus in the first months of the year.

The think tank Breugel monitors Russian oil exports from ports in the west of the country, and its figures show that significantly more oil was shipped in the first 20 weeks of 2022 compared to the first 20 weeks of 2021.

Specifically, week on week, about 20 percent more oil was shipped in 2022 than in 2021 in the first 12 weeks after the invasion, and according to Breugel's figures, the EU bought about half of the oil.

Profits keep growing
Economist Robin Brooks, an expert at the Institute for International Finance, analysed in late May how Russia's economy is affected by the war and rising oil prices.

According to his calculations, Russia's trade surplus for the first months of the year is already almost at the level of the amount for the whole of 2021.

Part of the picture in Robin Brooks' tweet, however, is that Russia is importing significantly fewer goods than before the invasion because of the sanctions.

Then the other day oil was hit by sanctions, which Robin Brooks says were necessary to hit Russia's growing surplus.

In a tweet from before the EU adopted its sanctions package, he shows how Russia has run week-on-week trade surpluses through 2022.

How much the EU sanctions will affect oil prices and the Russian economy is still uncertain, but Russia's oil sales are expected to fall sharply once the EU's ban on oil imports via tankers takes effect in earnest.

In Russia, too, there are concerns about what the sanctions will mean.

Yury Rykov, head of the energy department at the Russian think-tank Institute of Energy and Finance, for example, tells state-controlled media Sputnik that the sanctions could potentially lead to a big loss for Russia if it fails to find ways around them

Although Russia has started to sell more oil to India and China, it is unlikely to be able to send significantly more oil that way because of transport capacity constraints.

- If it succeeds (for the EU, ed.), we won't get the same benefit from the price because of the smaller supply, he says.

According to Bloomberg Economics, it's not just rising oil prices that look set to benefit Russia's economy.

Several raw materials have also risen in price, including nickel, platinum and palladium, which Russia also produces a lot of.

In total, Bloomberg Economics expects Russia's total earnings from sales of raw materials, oil and gas to reach more than the $300 billion frozen by the US and other Western countries after the invasion.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Think we give France and Germany too much power here, there are 25 other countries that also have a say in the EU.

Decisions on many issues must be made unanimously. Remember Hungary and the 6th sanction packet?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

From Danish TV2News

Despite sanctions from the EU and US, 2022 looks likely to be the most profitable year ever for Russia's oil and gas industry.

The situation in Russia at this moment is giving us all a quick lesson in supply and demand.
(...)
Several raw materials have also risen in price, including nickel, platinum and palladium, which Russia also produces a lot of.

In total, Bloomberg Economics expects Russia's total earnings from sales of raw materials, oil and gas to reach more than the $300 billion frozen by the US and other Western countries after the invasion.

Markus

Yep, since weeks already it becomes more and more obvious that the sanctions more or less backfire, at least in parts: gas, oil, and certain ores and industrial commodities. We stumble over our own dependency on these.

And we get openly blackmailed over our moral values: hunger in the world, grain deliveries interrupted by force, and hundreds of millions of people taken hostage by the Kremlin. From that direction, the global mood will soon start to swing against the ukrainians.

Regarding Russia, the baby is dead, we threw it out with the bath water, but regarding China - well, China is in control of relevant and indispensable ammounts of commodities we need for our precious energy turnaround. Rare earths, solar panels, windmills, you name it - without China our wonderful idea must collapse. And if it succeeds we find ourselves depending on China. Not to mention that China economically struggles and maybe cannot fulfill the epxcetations we put into it, even if it wants to play nice.

It sucks. Welcome in the 22nd century. Think its gonna get even much worse and even more brutal. Cannot see Europe having the muscle - the real muscle, not just some word-enriched hogwash - to make it. In a certain, grim way, that's comforting. I never was a friend of the European illusions. Maybe this is the age of hard lessons in Realpolitik. And maybe not just in what Bubble-Olaf thinks Realpolitik is. My understanding of Realpolitik includes being taught by pain and failure how illusive ones own daydreams are. So far the Europeans, especially the Germans, desperately try to save them. They will lose.



For Germany amiognst the Europeans nations it is especially bitter. Decades of foreign politlical paradigms of theirs, half a century of self-betrayal: ALL FAILED and exploded them into their faces.

The body still twitches. But these are only reflexes.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yep, since weeks already it becomes more and more obvious that the sanctions more or less backfire, at leats in parts: gas, oil, and certain ores and industrial commodities.
We stumble over our own dependency on these.

Regarding Russia, the baby is dead, we threw it out with the bath water, but regarding China - well, China is in control of relevant and indispensable ammounts of commodities we need for our precious energy turnaround. Rare earths, solar panels, windmills, you name it - without China our wonderful idea must collapse. And if it succeeds we find ourselves depending on China.

It sucks.

I was one of those who laughed at Trump when he accused us the European to be to independent on Russia gas and oil.

Markus