Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Reuters: US sanctions force Lukoil refinery to cut production by 40%

Russian oil refineries are reeling under Ukrainian drone strikes and sanctions limiting access to repairs. Russian oil firms are struggling to repair their refineries, which were built with the help of US and European engineering companies, due to Western sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Reuters reported, citing sources.

This offers evidence that Western sanctions combined with Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to strike Russian oil facilities, having the aim of disrupting the Russian war machine, are reaping results. According to five sources familiar with the situation, Lukoil’s NORSI refinery, the fourth-largest in Russia, has been facing difficulties repairing a broken gasoline-producing unit since 4 January, Reuters wrote. The sources revealed that the only company capable of repairing the catalytic cracker, a crucial component for converting heavier hydrocarbons into gasoline, is the American firm UOP. However, UOP withdrew from Russia following the Ukraine invasion. “They (the engineers) rushed around to find spare parts and they couldn’t find anything,” a source close to Lukoil told Reuters. “Then the whole unit just stopped.”

As a result of the unresolved issue, the NORSI refinery has cut gasoline production by 40%, according to two sources. The refinery’s current outage is estimated to cost Lukoil nearly $100 million in lost revenues per month, based on Reuters’ calculations. The difficulties faced by Russian refineries have been further exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks, which have struck at least a dozen facilities this year, forcing them to shut down some 14% of capacity in the first quarter, industry sources said. “If the stream of drones continues at this rate and Russian air defenses don’t improve, Ukraine will be able to cut Russian refining runs quicker than Russian firms will be able to repair them,” Sergey Vakulenko, an expert on Russia’s energy industry, told Reuters.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated last week that the damaged NORSI facilities should resume operations within a month or two, as Russian firms are working to produce the necessary spare parts. However, Honeywell International Inc, the parent company of UOP, confirmed to Reuters that it had not provided any equipment, parts, products, or services to the Nizhny Novgorod refinery since February 2022. Reuters reports that Western companies such as UOP and Swiss engineering group ABB have supplied technology and software to all 40 of Russia’s largest refineries over the past two decades. Each refinery has a combination of Russian and foreign equipment, making repairs and maintenance challenging in the face of sanctions. Earlier, Reuters reported that western sanctions and a tanker shortage had forced Russia’s Arctic-2 LNG project to suspend operations, dealing a blow to its LNG ambitions. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/...duction-by-40/

[mapuc]

^
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep31046.6.pdf

Markus

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia-Ukraine war: Frontline update as of April 5

In the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 30 attacks. In the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attempted to break through our troops' defenses over 20 times. Rocket troops struck one area of concentration of personnel, weapons, and military equipment of the occupiers, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russian shelling

During the past day, there were 65 combat engagements.

Overall, the enemy conducted 4 missile and 80 aviation strikes, as well as 108 shelling attacks from reactive multiple-launch rocket systems on the positions of our troops and civilian areas. Unfortunately, due to Russian terrorist attacks, there are casualties among the civilian population. Several multi-story buildings and other objects of civilian infrastructure have been destroyed or damaged.
During the night, Russian occupiers again attacked Ukraine, using 13 UAVs of the Shahed type. All the attacking UAVs were destroyed by Air Defense Forces.

Aviation strikes targeted:

・Volfyne in the Sumy region;

・Ohirtseve in the Kharkiv region;

・Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region;

・Terni, Yamopilivka, Ivanivske, Druzhba, Zalizne, Andriivka, New York, Oleksandropil, Ocheretyne, Keramik, Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Umanske, Vodiane, Volodymyrivka, Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region;
・Mala Tokmachka, Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Approximately 120 populated areas in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions were under artillery fire.

Frontline situation

In the Volyn and Polissia directions, the operational situation remains largely unchanged.

In the Siversk and Slobozhanske directions, the enemy maintains a military presence in border areas, conducts sabotage activities to prevent the redeployment of our troops to threatened areas, and increases the density of mine-explosive barriers along the state border.

In the Kupiansk direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions during the past day.

In the Lyman direction, our troops repelled 4 enemy attacks in the area of the settlements of Teri and Yampolivka in the Donetsk region, where the enemy tried to break through our troops' defenses.

In the Bakhmut direction, our troops repelled 30 attacks in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka and Verkhniokamianka in the Luhansk region; Spirne, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Stupochky, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka in the Donetsk region, where the enemy, supported by aviation, tried to improve their tactical position.

In the Avdiivka direction, our defenders repelled 2 attacks in the areas of the settlements of Pervomaiske and Nevelske in the Donetsk region, where the enemy tried to dislodge our units from their positions.

In the Novopavlivka direction, the Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of the settlements of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostiantynivka, Novomykhailivka, Velyka Novosilka, and Urozhaine, where the enemy, supported by aviation, tried more than 20 times to break through our troops' defenses.

In the Orikhiv direction, during the past day, the enemy, supported by aviation, made 4 unsuccessful attempts to attack the positions of our troops in the areas of the settlements of Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region and northwest of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy persists in its intention to dislodge our units from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro. During the past day, the enemy launched 5 unsuccessful attacks on our troops' positions.

At the same time, our soldiers continue to actively inflict losses on the occupying forces in personnel and equipment, wearing down the enemy along the entire line of contact.

Enemy losses

During the past day, the Defense Forces aviation conducted strikes on 7 areas where the enemy's personnel, weaponry, and military equipment were concentrated, as well as on 2 enemy air defense missile systems.

Missile troops units inflicted hits on 1 area of concentration of personnel, weaponry, and military equipment, 2 artillery systems, 1 radar station, 1 electronic warfare station, and 2 enemy air defense systems.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...108a15cc&ei=17

[Skybird]

Russia now has 500,000 troops engaged in Ukraine, and could possibly send in another 300,000 this year. I think this would give them decisive advantages at places of their choice. We expect the mud period any time soon, but when the soil has dried again I think we will see a huge Russian offensive, possibly at Kupjansk where reports say the Russians have started to amass ever more forces. At the same time the ammunition situation has become desperate for Ukraine, there are indicationsn that at some parts of the front they just sit in their trenches and try to hold out wihtout any ammo at all. Artillery superiority is said to be beyond 6:1 along all the front of 1200km, so it is safe to assume that in some regions it is not as huge - for the benfit of front sectors of Russia's choice where their artillery ratio is even more advantageous. Ukraine also begs for Patriot missiles, their air defence has severely suffered due to lacking missile reserves, and so the damage done by Russia increases with every day and week, at growing pace as well.

Ukraine will not hold out over this year if things continue to move like this. They will need to give up very signficant amounts of ground, not just tactical withdrawels to stabilize the front. I fear we will see severe operational breakthroughs by Russia this summer and autumn. I think a breakdown of Ukrainian energy grid later this year is possible. This will almost kill their and some Europeans' ambitions to build defence factories on their own ground. Personally I think it is stupid by Europe to want to rebuild civilian structures and build factories while the air defences are growing weaker and weaker and the war still is raging. Lets build these factories for ammo and weapons near Ukraine but on NATO's side of the border so that Russia cannot take them out without opening war with NATO. But maybe that is right what NATO states do not want: raising the risk of a Russian attack or even just accident that would force them to stand by their treaty's words.

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine lowers combat call-up age to boost numbers

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed into law a bill lowering the military mobilisation age by two years from 27 to 25.

Kyiv and Moscow have both faced heavy losses on the battlefield after two years of war, but Russia has benefited from a sizeable advantage in manpower.

The move will allow Ukraine to call up more people to replenish its reserves, after volunteer numbers dropped.

Mr Zelensky said in December 500,000 more soldiers needed to be mobilised.

But on Wednesday, he said: "We don't need half-a-million." Last week, Ukraine's top general said the required number of mobilised soldiers had been "significantly reduced" following a review of available resources.

Ukraine's parliament approved the bill in May 2023, but it did not come into force because Mr Zelensky did not sign it.

In a separate move, Nato foreign ministers in Brussels were discussing plans for a €100bn (£86bn) five-year fund to provide long-term military support for Ukraine.

Asked if the figure was correct, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the framework was yet to be decided but Nato allies agreed that Ukraine needed more money and for many years.

"Make no mistake, Ukraine can rely on Nato support now and for the long haul."

Russia was "pushing" on the battlefield in Ukraine and trying to win the war by "waiting us out", Mr Stoltenberg said.

It was not immediately clear what prompted President Zelensky to sign the bill and how many additional soldiers Ukraine could now get, although he has previously warned of plans Russia may have to launch a spring or summer offensive.

And on Wednesday, the Ukrainian leader said Russia was ready to mobilise additional 300,000 troops in June.

Russia's military has not commented on the claim.

Ukrainian forces had hoped to take back swathes of territory gained by Russia as well as cutting off Russian supply lines to Crimea - Ukraine's southern peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

But lacking air superiority and faced with formidable Russian defences, Kyiv's counter-offensive ground to a halt at the start of winter and there are fears that Russian forces could outgun Ukraine.

In the past few months, Kyiv has been actively building defence fortifications amid steady Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, including the capture of the strategic town of Avdiivka.

Last year, Ukrainian Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskyi warned troops had already been forced to downsize some military operations because of a drop-off in foreign aid.

Ukraine has relied heavily on Western supplies, particularly on deliveries of long-range missiles and air defence systems. However, billions of pounds of US and EU aid have been held up amid political wrangles.

In January 2024, Mr Zelensky said Ukraine's armed forces numbered 880,000, without specifying how many were actually fighting on the more than 1,200km-long (745 miles) frontline in the country's south-east.

In February, he said 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, but US officials have put the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed as at least 70,000 and as many as 120,000 injured.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said more than 600,000 of his troops are fighting in Ukraine, but has not revealed how many have lost their lives there.

A classified US intelligence report released in December estimated that 315,000 Russian soldiers had been either killed or wounded since the war began - which it said was almost 90% of Russia's military personnel at the start of the invasion.

On Wednesday, Russia's defence ministry said more than 100,000 people had signed up to serve in the country's armed forces since the start of the year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68719473

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Scandals blight Denmark’s buildup of its armed forces as it eyes possible threats from Russia

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — A series of scandals has blighted Denmark’s Armed Forces at a time when the Scandinavian country and member of the NATO alliance is building up its defenses, chiefly as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The events have so far led to the dismissal this week of Denmark’s top military chief, Gen. Flemming Lentfer, who failed to inform the defense minister about an incident on the frigate HDMS Iver Huitfeldt last month while deployed to the Red Sea, where it was part of a U.S.-led operation to defend commercial shipping against Houthi militants.

On Thursday, a technical error onboard its sister ship, the frigate HDMS Niels Juel that was docked in a Danish harbor, led to the air space and maritime route being briefly closed due to fears a navy missile might launch unintentionally — but not explode — and send fragments falling into the busy shipping lane between the islands of Zeeland, where Copenhagen sits, and Funen.

The Iver Huitfeldt, which returned from its Red Sea mission on Thursday, ahead of schedule, reportedly experienced a half-hour long malfunction of its missile and radar systems during a drone attack on March 9, according to the specialist defense news website Olfi.

“I have lost trust in the chief of defense,” the defense minister said briefly without elaborating why he fired Lentfer on Wednesday. Maj. Gen Michael Hyldgaard was appointed as his replacement.

The firing of Lentner was “the culmination of so many years of deep crisis,” Martin Krasnik, the editor-in-chief of the weekly Weekendavisen wrote Friday. “The pitiful state of defense management, the unclear division of roles and, to a particular extent, political irresponsibility have led to the fact that Denmark has no defense today. We cannot defend a meager frigate, and we cannot contribute meaningfully to NATO’s defense.”

Peter Viggo Jakobsen, an associate professor with the Royal Danish Defense College, agreed with Krasnik that “there are many problems” in Danish defense, chiefly because spending was reduced in 2012 and Denmark has been “very slow at coming up again.”

“It starts to show now. We will see breakdowns more and more often,” Jakobsen told The Associated Press.

Olfi cited a leaked document written by the commander of the Iver Huitfeldt that the problem with the missile and radar systems had been known for years. The frigate eventually fended off the attack by the Iran-backed Houthis, shooting down four drones with guns.

Danish media have reported that Denmark’s military intelligence service was asked to investigate the leak to the press of confidential information in the case of the Iver Huitfeldt.

In addition, staff have been leaving the Danish Armed Forces more quickly than they can be replaced, some for poor pay, while military facilities in a shabby and dilapidated state, soldiers and their unions have said for years.

In August, the defense minister at the time dismissed his top aide after criticism over the handling of the purchase of artillery from Israel. The equipment was to replace much of Denmark’s own weapon systems that had been donated to Ukraine.

On May 30, Denmark’s centrist government said it wants to invest some 143 billion kroner ($20.6 billion) in the country’s defense over the next decade, citing a “serious threat picture,” and an ambition to reach NATO’s target of spending 2% of gross domestic product on military budgets by 2030. Last month, the government announced it wants to increase the number of young people doing military service by extending conscription to women and increasing the time of service from 4 months to 11 months for both genders.

Denmark, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, has donated a total of 33.3 billion kroner (nearly $5 billion) in military aid to Kyiv since Russia’s invasion in 2022. The Danish donations include part of its fleet of aging F-16 jets.

Danish lawmakers have “strongly prioritized Ukraine and not the Danish defense,” Jakobsen said.
https://apnews.com/article/denmark-a...466184f69e7d79

[Jimbuna]

Russia-Ukraine war: Frontline update as of April 6

On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian soldiers repelled over 16 attacks by Russian occupiers. Defense aviation struck targets in 11 personnel concentration areas and 1 enemy anti-aircraft missile complex, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russian shelling

During the past day, there were 80 military clashes.

Overall, the enemy launched 14 missile and 107 aviation strikes, as well as conducted 137 rocket artillery barrages targeting our troops' positions and civilian settlements. Unfortunately, there are casualties among the civilian population. Numerous multi-story buildings and other objects of civilian infrastructure have been destroyed or damaged.

During the night, Russian occupiers once again attacked Ukraine, using 32 UAVs of the Shahed type. 28 of these strike UAVs were destroyed by anti-aircraft defense forces. Towards morning, the enemy launched cruise missiles of various types. Data is currently being clarified.
The following areas suffered aviation strikes:

・Kostobobriv in the Chernihiv region;

・Oleksandrivka, Popivka, Krasnopillia, Novodmytrivka, Svesa, Pokrovka, Seredyna-Buda in the Sumy region;

・Kruhle, Berestove, Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region;

・Terny, Chasiv Yar, Zalizne, New York, Pivnichne, Berdychi, Umanske, Pervomaiske, Netailove, Novobakhmutivka, Ocheretyne, Yasnobrodivka, Kalynove, Krasnohorivka, Urozhaine, Vodiane, Vuhledar, Kostiantynivka, Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka in the Donetsk region;

・Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Approximately 110 settlements in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions were under artillery fire.

Frontline situation

In the Volyn and Polissia directions, the operational situation remains largely unchanged.

In the Siversk and Slobozhanske directions, the enemy maintains a military presence in border areas, conducts sabotage activities to prevent the redeployment of our troops to threatened areas, and increases the density of mine-explosive barriers along the state border.

In the Kupiansk direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions during the past day.

In the Lyman direction, our troops repelled 3 enemy attacks near settlement Terny in the Donetsk region, where the enemy tried to break through our troops' defenses.

In the Bakhmut direction, our troops repelled 16 attacks in the areas of the settlements of Andriivka, Zelenopillia, Klishchiivka, Novyi, Spirne, and Ivanivske in the Donetsk region, where the enemy, with air support, attempted to improve their tactical position.

In the Avdiivka direction, our defenders repelled 22 attacks in the areas near the settlements of Berdychi, Umanske, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Yasnobrodivka, and Semenivka in the Donetsk region, where the enemy, with air support, attempted to dislodge our units from their occupied positions.

In the Novopavlivka direction, the Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of the settlements of Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Heorhiivka, Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, where the enemy, supported by aviation, tried 20 times to break through our troops' defenses.

In the Orikhiv direction, during the past day, the enemy, supported by aviation, made 1 unsuccessful attempt to attack the positions of our troops in the areas of the settlement of Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy persists in its intention to dislodge our units from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro. During the past day, the enemy launched 16 unsuccessful attacks on our troops' positions.

At the same time, our soldiers continue to actively inflict losses on the occupying forces in personnel and equipment, wearing down the enemy along the entire line of contact.

Enemy losses

During the past day, the Defense aviation struck targets in 11 personnel concentration areas and 1 enemy anti-aircraft missile complex.

Missile troops units inflicted damage on 2 anti-aircraft defense systems, 5 artillery units, 1 command post, 1 UAV control post, 3 areas of armament and military equipment concentration, and 1 other important enemy object.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...22c1adcb&ei=25

[Dargo]

Russian warplanes destroyed after drone attack Ukraine

Ukraine has hit a fighter jet base in a drone attack on Russia, Reuters news agency reported, based on Ukrainian sources. This reportedly destroyed six Russian aircraft and severely damaged another eight. Russia has not confirmed the attack and the attack cannot be independently verified. Russian state news agency RIA reports only that 53 Ukrainian drones were downed near the air base. The Morozovsk air base where the fighter jets are located is in the Rostov region that borders Ukraine. Ukrainian sources told the BBC that the fighter jets, the Su-27 and the Su-24, are being used on the front lines. Up to 20 soldiers could have been killed in the attack, the sources said.

[Jimbuna]

F-16 for Ukraine. Netherlands tells when and how many planes Ukraine will receive

The Netherlands plans to provide Ukraine with more than 20 F-16 fighter jets. The first deliveries are to begin this year, states Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren.

"In total, we are going to transfer 24 F-16 fighters. They will be handed over to Ukraine as soon as everything is ready. This moment depends on the training of Ukrainian pilots and technical staff, as well as, of course, on the infrastructure," the Dutch minister said.

According to her, the transfer of fighter jets to the Ukrainian military is a joint effort with Denmark, the United States, Ukraine and other countries.

"It is difficult, it is complicated, but it will happen. Our coalition hopes that this summer we will be able to start delivering F-16s, first Danish and then Dutch," Ollongren added.
In addition, the Dutch minister commented on rumors that she and Prime Minister Mark Rutte had personally asked the United States to help Ukraine with F-16s.

"Let's just say we have discussed all the possibilities with our partners and friends. I think it is important that we, together with the United States and Denmark, were able to make this decision. Since then, we have been working very hard to ensure its implementation," she summarized.

Last year, Denmark and the Netherlands promised to provide Ukraine with several dozen F-16 fighters. However, in order to receive the fighter jets, Ukraine had to first train pilots and maintenance personnel, as well as prepare the necessary infrastructure on Ukrainian territory.

According to the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, Illia Yevlash, the arrival of F-16s in Ukraine will be a surprise for the enemy. Today, two groups of Ukrainian pilots are in the final stages of training.

At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that F-16s, like any weapon, would not be a "silver bullet" in Ukraine's war with Russia. But, according to him, these fighters will be important on the battlefield.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...52a373e2&ei=28

[August]

[Jimbuna]

Russia's losses in Ukraine as of April 7: 820 invaders and over 50 artillery systems

Russia's losses in the war in Ukraine as of Sunday morning, April 7, amount to 820 occupants, bringing the total number of Russian army losses since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine to 447,510. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 17 tanks, 54 armored combat vehicles and 54 artillery systems, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The total combat Russian losses from 24.02.22 to 07.04.24 are estimated to be:

・personnel - about 447,510 (+820) Russian invaders were killed;

・tanks - 7,074 (+17) units;

・armored combat vehicles - 13,551 (+54) units;

・artillery systems - 11,316 (+54) units;

・MLRS - 1,036 (+4) units;

・air defense systems - 749 units;
・airplanes - 347 units;

・helicopters - 325 units;

・UAVs of operational and tactical level - 8,956 (+61) units;

・cruise missiles - 2,064 (+4) units;

・ships/boats - 26 units;

・submarines - 1 unit;

・motor vehicles and tankers - 15,071 (+79) units;

・special equipment - 1,864 (+10) units.

Situation at the front

Earlier in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine evening briefing on April 6, it was reported that during the last day, there were 50 combat clashes along the front lines.

It was also noted that the largest number of enemy attacks was recorded on the Novopavlivka direction, where the occupiers attempted to breach the defense of Ukrainian defenders 16 times.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...f94c97d6&ei=23

[mapuc]

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Markus

It’s not a Ukraine aid bill.


It’s H.R. 815 National Defense Authorization Act Supplemental which adds a little over 71 billion dollars to the $966,000,000,000 Defense budget signed into law last December. In the supplemental is 7 billion in economic aid for Ukraine disbursed by the U.S. as needed on a case by case basis. The rest goes to U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Intel weenies

Biden & Co already has presidential draw down authority and 6 billion available but Jake is afraid to offer it because he’s in way over his head.