Nuclear Iran

[Jimbuna]

Enemy drone that killed US troops in Jordan was mistaken for a US drone, preliminary report suggests

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. forces may have mistaken an enemy drone for an American one and let it pass unchallenged into a desert base in Jordan where it killed three U.S. troops and wounded dozens more, officials said Monday.

Details of the Sunday attack emerged as President Joe Biden faced a difficult balancing act, blaming Iran and looking to strike back in a forceful way without causing any further escalation of the Gaza conflict.

As the enemy drone was flying in at a low altitude, a U.S. drone was returning to the small installation known as Tower 22, according to a preliminary report cited by two officials, who were not authorized to comment and insisted on anonymity.

As a result, there was no effort to shoot down the enemy drone that hit the outpost. One of the trailers where troops sleep sustained the brunt of the strike, while surrounding trailers got limited damage from the blast and flying debris. While there are no large air defense systems at Tower 22, the base does have counter-drone systems, such as Coyote drone interceptors.

Aside from the soldiers killed, the Pentagon said more than 40 troops were wounded in the attack, most with cuts, bruises, brain injuries and similar wounds. Eight were medically evacuated, including three who were going to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany. The other five, who suffered “minor traumatic brain injuries,” were expected to return to duty.

Asked if the failure to shoot down the enemy drone was “human error,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh responded that the U.S. Central Command was still assessing the matter.

The Pentagon identified those killed in the attack as Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46, of Carrollton, Georgia; Spc. Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, of Waycross, Georgia; and Spc. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23, of Savannah, Georgia.

The three U.S. Army Reserve soldiers were assigned to the 718th Engineer Company, 926th Engineer Battalion, 926th Engineer Brigade in Fort Moore, Georgia.

The explanation for how the enemy drone evaded U.S. air defenses came as the White House said Monday it’s not looking for war with Iran even as Biden vows retaliatory action. The Democratic administration believes Tehran was behind the strike.
https://apnews.com/article/jordan-dr...8303faf248d8e6

[Jimbuna]

Iran's economy crumbling under the pressure as fears of conflict with US grow

Iran's currency has fallen 17 percent against the US dollar over the past four months. The Rial crisis comes as Tehran grapples with an out-of-control inflation rate that exceeds 40 percent.

The Middle Eastern country's economy is suffering as a direct military confrontation between the US and Iran becomes increasingly likely.

The Iranian Rial has suffered a consistent decline in value compared with the US dollar.

The trend has been linked to the upsurge in attacks by Iranian-backed militias on US positions in the Middle East.

On October 6, a day before the Hamas attack on Israel, the dollar was worth 498,000 rials on Tehran's open currency market.

However, following the Iran-backed Houthis' deadly attack on a US military base in Jordan on January 29, the exchange rate rose to 582,500 rials, the lowest level in the previous 11 months.
Analysts attribute the rial's 17 percent depreciation over the last few months to concerns about a possible direct military confrontation between Iran and the United States.

With inflation slightly above 40 percent in December 2023, Iranian households are attempting to preserve their savings by purchasing dollars. It's worth noting that inflation in Iran hasn't fallen below 10 percent since 2018.

The conflict erupted when hundreds of militants led by Hamas entered Israel, killing approximately 1,200 people, the majority of whom were civilians, and kidnapping approximately 250 others.

In response, Israel launched a massive air, sea, and ground offensive in Gaza, killing over 26,700 people, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-controlled territory.

The ministry's tally does not distinguish between combatants and noncombatants, but it does state that approximately two-thirds of the casualties are women and children.

Gabriel Noronha, fellow at The Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), told Express.co.uk: "The increasing collapse in Iran's currency is a reflection of two worries: inflation and the general worry that the regime is inviting attacks from America.

"Iran's central bankers and economists had been trying to hype up the rial and reassure the public that there were sufficient currency reserves to fend off inflation in the coming months - now the public is increasingly realizing that the currency reserves are not there and that inflation will soar."

The former US State Department Advisor on Iran added: "Iranians are seeing the regime attack America and ramp up the rhetoric - they understand that invites the possibility of an American response which could inhibit their oil exports and damage the Iranian economy.

"The regime and its economy are far more insecure than the Biden Administration appears to believe, and they are particularly fragile against American attacks against their petrochemical industries that form around 40 percent of government revenue."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...b2f73170&ei=14

[Jeff-Groves]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Enemy drone that killed US troops in Jordan was mistaken for a US drone, preliminary report suggests

Thought We learned a lesson from Pearl Harbor!!!

[Jimbuna]

Iran pulls senior officers out of Syria

Iran is removing its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) senior officers from Syria, reported Israeli broadcaster Kan on Thursday, relying more on local Shiite militias rather than its own military.

The move comes in the wake of a series of assassinations of IRGC officers attributed to Israel.

Iran is likely to continue its Syria operations from a distance through its involvement with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...d572a074&ei=28

[Dargo]

CENTCOM Statement on U.S. Stikes in Iraq and Syria

At 4:00 p.m. (EST) Feb. 02, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups. U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from United States. The airstrikes employed more than 125 precision munitions. The facilities that were struck included command and control operations, centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aired vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces. https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1753533250146824348

[mapuc]

^ With this massive attacks on several targets in Syria and Iraq I say USA have sent a clear message to Iran.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Iran has a clear choice....call off the dogs or face the potential consequences.

I suspect the latter choice will be taken.

[Jimbuna]

US refuses to rule out Iran targets after hitting sites in Yemen, Syria and Iraq

The United States has refused to rule out airstrikes inside Iran, saying the US is determined to respond forcefully to attacks on troops.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that he wouldn’t get into what’s “on and off the table” when it came to striking inside Iran but that President Joe Biden “is determined to respond forcefully to attacks on our people.”

However, the administration official played down fears that the situation is escalating. Iraqi officials warned this weekend that the region was on the "brink of the abyss" after the airstrikes.

“The president also is not looking for a wider war in the Middle East,” Mr Sullivan added.

His words come after the US and UK, supported by six allied countries, struck at least 36 Houthi targets in Yemen just hours after the US conducted retaliatory airstrikes on more than 85 sites in Iraq and Syria due to the killing of three American soldiers in Jordan.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2490252.html

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Houthis claim fresh attacks on British and US ships in Red Sea

The Houthis say they have successfully targeted a British and a US ship in the Red Sea, casting doubt on the effectiveness of three waves of US-UK strikes on missile sites belonging to the group in Yemen.

Neither of the two ships were badly damaged but the incident will underscore the need for commercial ships either to pay higher insurance premiums or take longer, more expensive routes to avoid the threat of Houthi attacks.

The US military undertook a daylight raid on the port of Hodeidah on Monday without UK support.

A Houthi spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said in a statement on Tuesday: “We carried out two military operations, the first targeted an American ship (Star Nasia), and the other targeted a British ship (Morning Tide).”

The Greek-owned Star Nasia, managed by Star Bulk Carrier, was damaged by an explosion at 11.15 GMT, a Greek shipping ministry official said, adding that its crew were not injured. It is unclear whether the explosion was caused by a sea mine or a rocket, the official added.

The security company Ambrey reported earlier on Tuesday that a British ship flying the Barbados flag “suffered minor damage to its port” 57 nautical miles from the coast of Hodeidah, without any casualties. The ship continued on its way.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said just after midnight GMT on Tuesday that it had received a report of a projectile fired at the port side of a ship west of Hodeidah and that a small craft was seen nearby.

The projectile passed over the deck and caused slight damage to the bridge windows, but the vessel and crew were safe and proceeded on the planned passage, it added.

The leader of Yemen’s Houthis, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, said on Tuesday that the group “will further escalate” if the Israeli attack on Gaza does not stop.

On Monday the UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, told MPs there had been a change in the cadence of Houthi strikes. “The clock is running down for the Houthis, in as much as their ability is being degraded,” Shapps said. “They do not have the eyes and ears from the radar stations; they are more reliant still on Iran.”

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, is on his fifth trip to the Middle East since the 7 October Hamas attacks on Israel. He travelled to Egypt after meeting Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, in Riyadh to discuss how to achieve “an enduring end to the crisis in Gaza”.

Blinken is also due to travel to Qatar, Israel and the West Bank. His efforts will largely turn on the response Hamas finally gives to a framework for a ceasefire deal, which would involve the exchange of more than 100 Israeli hostages held in Gaza in return for a lengthy pause in fighting and the release of Palestinians detained in Israeli jails. Hamas has said it wants a permanent ceasefire and the removal of all Israeli troops from Gaza, something the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is not prepared to offer.

The price for the US not securing a lengthy ceasefire is rising as it finds itself embroiled in fighting directly against Iranian-backed forces in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. It is not clear how US strategic interests in any of these three countries are being advanced by the military confrontation. In Iraq, political forces calling for US bases to be closed down have grown stronger as a result of US strikes on Iranian-backed militia inside the country. In Syria, the US-backed Kurdish forces that have formed the linchpin of the US drive against Islamic State suffered a serious blow on Monday when they lost six fighters to a drone strike.

In Yemen, the UN-recognised government in Aden has sacked its prime minister, replacing him with the hardline anti-Houthi foreign minister Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak. Hugely experienced, Mubarak is sceptical of plans by Saudi Arabia to strike a peace deal with the Houthis to formally bring Yemen’s civil war to a close. Last Thursday he said Iran’s al-Quds force operatives had been deployed to Yemen’s coastline.

The reshuffle will reflect concerns in the US about the quality of the anti-Houthi alliance in the country. The prime minister is overseen by a disparate eight-strong presidential leadership council, some of whom are backed by Saudi Arabia and others by the United Arab Emirates.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-ships-red-sea

[Jimbuna]

Could the Houthis sabotage undersea cables?

Revenge takes many forms. The Houthis in Yemen have made no secret of their determination to retaliate against the West for the US-led airstrikes that have been targeting their missile and drone launch sites.

These in turn have been in response to more than 30 Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, which they say is in support of the Palestinians in Gaza.

The stakes have now been raised.

Yemen's legitimate, UN-recognised government in Aden has warned that the Houthis, who seized much of Yemen in 2014, are now threatening to sabotage the crucial undersea communication cables, including internet lines, which run under the Red Sea - connecting Asia to Europe.

The warning came after a channel linked to the Houthis on the Telegram messaging app posted a map showing undersea cable routes in the Red Sea.

Could the Houthis sabotage these lines? They almost certainly would if they could.

The group has reportedly claimed that they have easily accessed maps showing the confluence of undersea communications cables running past their coastline, as they pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait which, at its narrowest, is just 20 miles (32km) wide.

But the fibre cables, which carry 17% of the world's internet traffic, lie on the seabed mostly hundreds of metres below the surface - well beyond the reach of divers.

The US and Russia are both thought to have the naval capability to cut them. This involves deploying a deep-sea submersible from a mothership and then using what are, in effect, a giant pair of scissors for severing the cables on the ocean floor.

However, it would be more difficult for the Houthis to do.

"I assess it's a bluff, unless it's an attack on a terminal," former Royal Navy submarine commander Rear Adm John Gower says of the claims the group is threatening to sabotage the cables.

"It would need an ally with the capability, [someone with] a submersible plus the ability to locate [the cables]".

The Houthis do have an ally - Iran. With help from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah of Lebanon, the Houthis have built up a formidable arsenal of missiles and drones.

Over the past eight years they have fired these at Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, US and British warships - as well as any vessel they suspect of links to Israel, the US or UK.

So, could Iran enable the Houthis to cut the undersea cables?

"There is nothing I've seen in the Iranian orbat (Order of Battle) that could touch these cables, certainly not their submarines," says former Royal Navy Cdr Tom Sharpe.

"Diving is an option but it's deep and busy so I think it would be pushing it," he says. Concurring with Rear Adm Gower, Cdr Sharpe says: "I think this is a bluff."

For Iran to enable an ally to sabotage the world's undersea internet cables would also be a risky move on Tehran's part.

Neither Iran nor the US want to get into a full-scale war with each other and they have made that clear.

The current conflict between the US and Iran's proxies and allies around the Middle East is calibrated to a degree. The US gave several days' warning before hitting Iran-backed militia bases in Iraq and Syria, allowing key personnel to evacuate.

Cutting global communications cables would be a major escalation that could even result in retaliatory strikes on Iran itself.

"Iran would be nervous about expanding their global disruption campaign [to shipping]," says Edmund Fitton-Brown, who was the UK ambassador to Yemen from 2015-2017.

"The Iranians might resort to cyber options sooner than sabotage of infrastructure," he adds.

In conclusion, the threat made recently by the Houthis on their Telegram channel would be hard to carry out.

It would be both technically challenging and politically risky for Iran, whose hand the West sees in all the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

But the Houthis have surprised their adversaries before - firing missiles at a Saudi oil depot in Jeddah just before a Formula 1 Grand Prix in 2022.

They have also survived nearly eight years of intensive air strikes by a Saudi-led coalition that has failed to reverse their illegal takeover.

And today, despite repeated US-led air strikes on their missile and drone bases, they are showing no signs of backing down in their standoff with the West.

The Houthis, who are loathed and feared by many Yemenis in the areas outside their control, have become a force to be reckoned with.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68231945

[mapuc]

None of the two parties are interested in a Showdown-Well the way both is acting they sure is en route to an open full scale war.

Mostly it is Irans acting who pave the way.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

I'm wondering if and when either China, Russia or both get involved on the side of Iran.

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I'm wondering if and when either China, Russia or both get involved on the side of Iran.

Russia is going to send what, exactly? Tanks built in the 1960's? They may need them closer to home.

China and Iran don't pair well as allies. Both of them want the same dominance, but both of them want to wind up on top and both of them understand that.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Russia is going to sent what, exactly? Tanks built in the 1960's? They may need them closer to home.

China and Iran don't pair well as allies. Both of them want the same dominance, but both of them want to wind up on top and both of them understand that.

They don't have to. It's enough for Russia to place boots and war material in Iran to prevent USA from attacking them.

Markus