Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Also confirmed, it seems: the US will deliver around 50 M-2 Bradleys.

[Skybird]

Germany mulls the delivery of up to 40 Marders. Of around 100 such verhciles that the industry had parked, 40 were given to othe rnatiosn that in their turn delivered Russian tanks to Ukraine. So in totla around 60 Marders are left. Some of the 40 Marders will come foirm the Bundeswehr itself, these will later be replaced with refurbished Marders from the industry pool. I estimate that more than 60 Marders in total cannot be delivered by Germany, even if it wanted to do so. The delivery, including training, should be finished within the first quarter.

Germany also negotiates with two other nations about their Gepards. It has delivered already 30 Gepards, and in Decembre announced to deliver 7 more. If the new dela also comes to life, another 23-30 Gepards could follow, including significant stocks of ammo for it. Details on the negotiations are secret.

All this is ncie and well, but what the A,meicna, frnech and German new donatioosn lack is: deidcated tank killer capacity. Neither the M2 nor the AMX-10 nor the Marder nor the Gepard are meant to duel it out with T-72s who lie in defensive ambush in the woods. TOWs and Milans hate forests and woods. The 105mm armed AMX-10 is fast on roads, but better has no T-72 setting its sights on it. All three can kill the occasional, lonely strolling MBT. But they better do not try to specialise in that role.

Also, Russian artillery mjust be supressed. The war shows that it was true what everybody said about the Russians: they are an artillery army, and once their coordinated artillery is on the loose, they ram the ukrainian advances into the ground. So, anti-tank and supressing artillery are the two homeworks the Ukrainians still need to solve. The Russians can afford high losses. The Ukrainians not so much, especially not in - material.


Rumours stobbornly claim the Ukrainians are developing their own new cruise missiles to strike deeper into Russia. I think this is believable and logical.

[Skybird]

FOCUS explains:
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Those who want to understand the tank decision must look at the timing

So now after all: Germany is supplying Ukraine with Marder tanks and a Patriot air defense system. But Olaf Scholz is once again last with this decision - can't it be better?

Let's start with a corny joke: If you order leadership from Olaf Scholz, you get it - from Emanuel Macron and from Joe Biden. The German chancellor is the last in the allied line of three. How that fits with his claim to Germany as a leading power will remain his secret.

Anyone who wants to understand the decision by France, the United States, and finally Germany to supply Ukraine with the next heavy weapons system, infantry fighting vehicles, must look at the "timing." Why are these light tanks, demanded by Ukraine for many months, only now being delivered?

Americans, French and Germans do not want to give Russia an excuse to escalate the war towards NATO. Now that Russia itself has been escalating the Ukraine war for weeks with its inhumane attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in violation of international law, there is no longer any reason for the main Western allies to hesitate in taking military aid to the victim to the next level in return.

It is a threefold signal: to the Russians, the Ukrainians and the people in their own countries. To the Russians that the West will not let up with its military aid to Ukraine. That Putin should therefore reconsider launching the next large-scale offensive against Ukraine in the spring. The same signal goes to the Ukrainians: solidarity stands. Without Western help, Ukraine would probably be lost militarily. And it is an indirect appeal to their own populations to stick to their guns.

The fact that Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz are now announcing their decision to supply Bradley and Marder tanks, respectively, just a few hours after Putin announced an Orthodox Christmas ceasefire is no coincidence. This ceasefire called for by Patriarch Kirill, one of Putin's closest allies and Ukraine's greatest enemy, ostensibly to allow people in the Donbass to attend church, is a stratagem of war. Psychological warfare, nothing else. Putin is doing what he has always done - he is trying to unsettle and divide the West through feints, while putting Ukraine in the wrong in front of the whole world. However, as the decisions for the new arms deliveries show, this has not worked for the West. Good thing.

As far as Germany's domestic policy is concerned, it can be noted that this decision by Scholz would probably not have been taken the way it was without the pressure exerted by his two coalition partners - the FDP in particular. Only recently, the Green Party Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock made a course correction.

By declaring in a fundamental foreign policy interview that Ukraine must win this war. Scholz, on the other hand, has still not changed his old formula, according to which Russia must not win and Ukraine must not lose. In doing so, Scholz is exposing himself - even to his partners in Europe - to the suspicion that at some point he will also seek to restore "normal" political and economic relations with Russia. The change-through-trade doctrine is particularly deep and entrenched in the SPD. [marking by Skybird]

As important and correct as the decision by Macron, Scholz and Biden is, it has a biting aftertaste. How many Ukrainian soldiers might still be alive if the Western Allies had made this decision earlier - it could have been made months ago.

Just how important German arms deliveries are in particular is shown by the decision to supply Ukraine with the "Cheetahs." They are taking Iranian drones out of the sky by the dozen. That is why it is also right that Germany is now finally supplying Ukraine with a Patriot defense missile system.

It would be even better if Germany were to start training Ukrainian soldiers on Leopard main battle tanks now. To ensure that valuable time is not lost again, the next step should be to decide to supply Ukraine with this weapon, which is probably the most important one for it - without which it would probably be impossible to recapture the territories occupied by the Russians. This morning, SPD party leader Saskia Esken said in an interview that the delivery of Leopard tanks is already being discussed among the partners. So the current move is unlikely to have been the last.

Conclusion: Germany's, France's and America's decision in favor of the light battle tanks and further air defense systems is the right one. The help comes late, fallen earlier, many lives could have been saved. But it is also not too late; in terms of war tactics, it may even have come at the right time.

But Scholz should do more to finally get "in front of the situation" instead of constantly running anxiously after others. Otherwise, Germany's leadership role will come to nothing.

----------------------------------

[Dargo]

Regarding Putin's "unilateral ceasefire":

Russia has always violated ceasefires, dozens of various ceasefires were agreed upon during the first eight years of war, most meant just less but never zero military activity, and many of them didn't hold even a day. Usually, Russia's "ceasefires" mean that Russia needs to regroup its troops, replenish the losses, and pull in supplies. Some Russian Telegram channels claimed that Putin was going to replace Russia's military leadership and the defense minister - if so, Russia needs a break for the new leadership to rethink their strategy. Chief Wagner clown Prigozhin failed to capture Bakhmut before the new year and whined that his cannon fodder lacks vehicles, etc. - the Bakhmut area is the only sector of the front where Russia continues relatively large-scale offensive operations.

Many Russian Telegram channels complained that there are large-scale artillery ammunition shortages. Ukraine continues its campaign to destroy the Russian rear troop accommodation facilities, often full of freshly mobilized soldiers (it's not only about Makiivka). Looks like Russia not only needs to deliver more ammunition to the front, but also start the second wave of mobilization, and take a break to come up with a new general strategy of what else they may try to do to achieve at least something.

They are desperate. There's the so-called "old New Year's Day" later on after the Orthodox X-mas, and later if they are lucky for some reason to have Ukraine lured into their "ceasefire", they can extend it on and on In previous years, such "holiday ceasefires" were meant to last indefinitely. Of course, the fact that Ukraine doesn't care about Russia's ceasefire ideas will be used for propaganda ("look, you see, we're peaceful, white, and fluffy, and Ukraine is an aggressor!") Even though no one but its regular consumers care about it. https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1611126263640477700

[Reece]

[Skybird]

I think the french offer is half-hearted. The AMX-10RC is a wheeled light tank, and wheels are what in the coming mud of spring is inferior to tracks. It more or less will stick to roads. The French are phasing these tanks out anyway, are in the midst of the process. And the tank once may have been meant, in the early 70s, at the times of T-55 and T-64 and Leopard-1s and M-60s, to be a tank hunter (RC in this case stands not for recce, but for roue, canon: wheels, canon), but today it is not en par with modern MBTs, even T-72, if it meets them: no chance to withstand a shot from a T-72. The vehicles it likely should hunt, are APCs and IFVs. Maybe infantry support via HE rounds.

Mud will be an issue for it. remember how the columns of Russian APCs with wheels in the first days of the war last February - MTLBs, sticking to the road although they turned into turkeys that way? They could not negotiate the terrain off the road with those things.

[Skybird]

Its rumoured since a few days already that Germany silently mulls the delivery of Leopard-2s alreay since mid-Decembre. If true, the decision time will depend on the weather, I think. Which only makes sense if tank crews are being trained since earlier.



These rumours so far are not substantially confirmed, but they dont go away, and refer to "informed sources".



Scholz said he wanted Germany to play a leading role. If that's what he means, he can't always wait for Biden and Macronman to pick him up and carry him to a decision.

[Jimbuna]

Race to overthrow Putin and take crown has begun, says former loyalist

Vladimir Putin may claim to lead an army, but he stands alone as he conducts what he calls a special military operation, but to everyone else is the illegal invasion of Ukraine. He had hoped, when the war began in February, to finish it quickly and force Ukraine to surrender. Instead, 10-months on, his forces are suffering losses and he has resorted to commandeering civilian hospitals to cope with injured coming back from the front. In the face of such failings, questions about his future have already begun to be asked says on former loyalist.
This former loyalist is former Russian defence minister Igor Strelkov, a man who played a key role in Putin's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea in 2014.

In a video statement he said that the fight for the "political olympus" has already begun.

The political olympus Strelkov talks of us Vladimir Putin's job.

Among those fighting for this position, says Strelkov is head of the Wagner private army Yevgeny Prigozhin.

He alleges that Prigozhin is going head to head with allies of current defence minister, Sergein Shoigu.

Other potential candidates include ex-head of the FSB Nikolai Patrushev who currently sits as secretary of the security council, it is these men who Strelkov believes could move to remove Putin.

On Prigozhin, Strelkov said he is aiming to become a political force of his own and has started securing coverage in the state media amid speculation he would like the job of defence minister.

Strelkov also had words to say on the current situation in Ukraine and how Putin could salvage the situation by mobilising an extra half a million men.

However, he added that political infighting rather than the actual fighting may now be taking precedence: "The grouping of Yevgeny Prigozhin stands against groupings which includes Sergei Shoigu. They have already started the fight.

"They are not fighting over the number of shells... Now we are speaking about what comes after Putin. Will it happen in one year or two? We don't know."

Strelkov said of Prigozhin he "stands against the grouping which Shoigu either heads or belongs to".

He said: "They have already started to fight. It was like a 'feudal' battle. The military crisis led to a power crisis.

"In turn the power crisis will deepen the military crisis.

"And it'll keep going down the spiral, unless urgent measures I mentioned earlier are taken."

On future mobilisations he said: "They will be forced to have it - a second and then perhaps a third wave.

"To win in Ukraine we would need about half a million more soldiers."

However, men alone will not win Putin's war. Sending in untrained troops is just more cannon fodder for Ukraine's well trained army and more lost sons, fathers, nephews, uncles, and brother's for Russia's civilian population.

Nevertheless, Putin seeks to mobilise at least two million more men this year either to go to the front or to military linked industries.

First to be called up will be in debt to their ex-wives, a move potentially set to come into action next month.

Whether this has an impact is not yet known, what is certain is that Ukraine's morale and desire to push Russia off every inch of sovereign territory is undimmed.

As the first anniversary of the beginning of the war draws nearer and the mercury continues to remain glued below zero, what is certain is the war continues to remain as hot as ever.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...a9205b477e1974

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 110,250 people (+530 per day), 3,064 tanks, 285 planes, 272 helicopters, 2,059 artillery systems, 6,124 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

The losses of the Russian occupiers as of the morning of January 6, 2023, are approximately 110,250 people.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 06.01.23 are estimated to be:

personnel - about 110,250 (+530) people were eliminated,
tanks - 3064 (+23) units,
armored combat vehicles - 6124 (+16) units,
artillery systems - 2059 (+8) units,
MLRS - 431 (+5) units,
air defense equipment - 215 (+0) units,
aircraft - 285 (+1) units,
helicopters - 272 (+1) units,
UAV of operational-tactical level - 1844 (+0),
cruise missiles - 723 (+0),
warships/boats - 16 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 4797 (+38) units,
special equipment - 182 (+0). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3391585

[Jimbuna]

Another echelon with Russian equipment has arrived in Belarus. PHOTOS

On January 6, another echelon of Russian military equipment arrived in Belarus. It has "Z" markings.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the Ministry of Defense of Belarus.

"The equipment arrives "within the framework of ensuring the military security of the Union State," the message reads.

According to the monitoring group "Belarusian Gajun", at least 50 pieces of equipment were transferred to Belarus. It is noteworthy that many trucks have the symbol "Z".

"The echelon consists of about 43 KamAZs and Urals, BAZ-6306, 5 fuel tankers, 2 ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, field kitchens, and water barrels. On one of the cars, we noticed license plates with the 44th region of the Russian Federation - this is Western military district," the monitoring group notes. Source: https://censor.net/en/p3391636

Currently, there is no strike group on territory of Belarus for repeated invasion, - State Border Guard Service

On the border with Belarus, there are currently no recorded movements of equipment or personnel by the enemy. The situation remains under control.

This was announced by the spokesman of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Andrii Demchenko on the air of the telethon, Censor.NET informs with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

"The situation on the border with Belarus remains controlled and stable. We do not see any threats that are currently near the border.
We do not record the movement of military equipment near our border, nor the movement of personnel either of the units of the Russian Federation or of Belarus, which would carry out any demonstration actions," Demchenko said.

According to him, units of Belarus are still strengthening the border with our country, calling it a "threat from Ukraine", and not the other way around.

"In addition, at this moment there is no necessary strike group on the territory of Belarus that could carry out a repeated invasion of Ukraine," Demchenko emphasized.

He said that there are now a little more than 10,000 soldiers from the units of the Russian army in Belarus who are involved in the exercises.

"It is not excluded that some of them will be transferred to the east of Ukraine to replenish the units of the Russian Federation. Instead, several Russians may enter the territory of the Republic of Belarus to continue their training," Demchenko admitted.

However, as the spokesman of the SBS emphasized, despite everything, the enemy should not be underestimated, since at any moment he can also use the direction from Belarus. But it can continue to accumulate forces for a full-scale invasion. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3391631

[vanjast]

I wouldn't get too excited about any 'Invasion of Russia' plans.

A new figure of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries announced: more than 400 thousand.

https://en.topcor.ru/28886-ozvuchena...l9tk9470823657

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by vanjast

I wouldn't get too excited about any 'Invasion of Russia' plans.

A new figure of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries announced: more than 400 thousand.

https://en.topcor.ru/28886-ozvuchena...l9tk9470823657

If the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries announced: more than 400 thousand is true they are still kicking Russia out of Ukraine. Nice try posting old news (October 24, 2022) do not care for the numbers. Russia is losing terrain and can not win this, but who am I sitting in the sun in mid-winter at 12 degrees, lol

[Dargo]

Only hot winter Russia understands Слава партизанам