Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Reece]

I still say Ukraine should be given some tactical nukes as a gift!!

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

After all it is not Russian land the Russians destroy this way, but the land of their victim.


Thats why I think the Western calculation for not giving Ukraine long range weapons for so long time, was wrong. It should have been enabled to bring the war onto Russian soil from beginning on. And massively so. The nuclear threat counts as heavy or as light as it does with all the destruction done only inside Ukraine.



The pain must be felt by the aggressor, not by his victim.

[Jimbuna]

^ Agreed

[Skybird]

https://abcnews.go.com/International...onry-100004773

Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov notes that Moscow has maintained a numerical advantage in troops and weapons, despite any weaknesses.
While Russia has increasingly tapped its Cold-War arsenals, deploying tanks dating to the 1950s to replenish its massive, early losses, such old weapons can still perform well, Zhdanov said.
“It doesn’t matter what tanks they have; they have thousands of them,” Zhdanov told AP, noting Russia put many of them to use as stationary weapons in their defensive lines, including in the Zaporizhzhia region where they proved effective.

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I fear its right the other way around. The first line is the weakest, just to delay and pick away at the attackers a bit. Recruits, cannon fodder in those trenches. Same for the second line. The experienced troops are saved for the third line, it is here where the Ukrainians will bite into the toughest Russian fighters. And then Ukrainians already will have suffered then.

Thats how the theory works, and thats how they describe the Russians have set up their defense lines. Right to the textbook example.

Possible that the Ukrianains hold back half of their troops and let the first half wearing down the Russians and getting worn down by the first two defence lines, so that fresh Ukranian troops will be available to crush into the third dfence line then. These two lines are meant to delay and disrupt, not necessarily to stop the attacker.

If it is like this indeed on the ground, if this is how the Russian have set it up, then the Ukrainians currently are in the easiest part of their task ahead. The biggest problems they will face at the very end.

There is also the danger that the deeper they penetrate into a breach, the more likely it becomes that the Russians have reserves left and right of that breach encircling them with an pincing manouver and from behind. That could happen when they reach the third defence line.

They must reduce their losses. Simple math.


I do not say all is lost, hell no. But I say things run much more difficult than was anticipated. "Ein Selbstläufer ist diese Offensive nicht."

There is a big difference between starting an offensive, and the main attack or main effort of the operation. The offensive has clearly started, but not the main attack. When we see two or three brigades focused on a narrow front, it will then be possible to say that the main attack has probably started and where it’s happening. But even then, the Ukrainian General Staff will want to keep the Russians guessing about the location of the main attack for as long as possible. So far, it seems that the Ukrainians are still probing, pressing, looking for vulnerabilities to exploit, reinforcing local tactical success where they find or create it. That's one of the benefits of their adoption of Western-style tactical command and control, where lower-level leaders can make decisions on their own. And some of what we are seeing is intended, perhaps, to confuse the Russians as to where the main attack will eventually be delivered. To show a Leopard on the battlefield at such an early stage was probably, in my view, intended to draw a lot of attention to that area, perhaps as a decoy.

Even so, there are going to be losses the destruction of a single Leopard caused a lot of excitement, but it was actually recovered from the battlefield so that it could be repaired and put back in the fight. That's impressive. It's what the US Army practice, and it’s worth noting the Ukraine Armed force's achievement in doing the same. There is much uncertainty, but of one thing we can be sure, the Ukrainian General Staff has done a superb job protecting information in order to prevent the Russians from knowing what's happening and enabling them to prepare for the attack. The uncertainty in Russian minds may have been one reason for their sabotage of the Kakhovka Dam.

The flooding of low ground and widening of the Dnipro may have delayed Ukraine Armed forces offensive operations in that area for a time. But there are expert voices saying the floodwaters will subside within the next five to seven days, and the ground will rapidly begin to dry in the summer heat. So the likely intended effect hoped for by the Russian side of making crossings of the Dnipro harder, is probably going to be relatively short-lived.

[mapuc]

"The offensive has clearly started, but not the main attack. "

Then I heard right in news at 6.

As mentioned before I truly hope Ukraine manage to divide the Russians in two.

Maybe this could be the reason to why they are moving troops from Kherson to Donbass. Prevent them from being cut off

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Maybe this could be the reason to why they are moving troops from Kherson to Donbass. Prevent them from being cut off

Markus

Its clear to me that they more benefit than suffer from the flooding. A mechnized assault combined with an amphibious assault is practially not possible in that region anymore, so that frees Russian forces to be shifted to places where they are needed more. And there are so many more dams to blow up... And they all are in Ukraine, not in Russia - wonderful, from a Russian perspective.

[ChristopherTarana]

I think over all this war in Ukraine was started by the Biden Administration's too NATO-centric Policies! Biden said he would support NATO better than Trump! Ukraine is not a NATO Member! My reading of Russian and Ukrainian history suggests closer ties between Russia and Ukraine! Trump was right when he says if Biden hadn't been elected there would be no war in Ukraine!


Christopher Tarana

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ChristopherTarana

My reading of Russian and Ukrainian history suggests closer ties between Russia and Ukraine!

Too bad the ukrainians have red another book than yours.

[mapuc]

To understand the Ukrainians I think we have go further back then to the year where the Maidan revolution toke place. That's not enough we have to go even further back before 1991 referendum.

What I have learned is that Ukraine since they voted for independens was their wish to be West European a member of EU and later NATO.

If I remember correctly it wasn't so far in time from the People in Kyiv manage to throw the elected leader out of office, until groups in Donbass and Luhansk claimed independens from Ukraine.

It was around this time Russia came to their aid and occupied Crimea

Darth Putin put it very well

"So it *is* a war, not a “special military operation” and it *has* been going on for 9 years and we still haven’t won yet…??"
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/st...42229629538304

Markus

[August]

Originally Posted by ChristopherTarana

My reading of Russian and Ukrainian history suggests closer ties between Russia and Ukraine!

Closer ties as in that between a rapist and his victim you mean.

The Russians have forcibly conquered Ukraine twice in the past and now they are attempting to do so again.

First it was the corrupt Tsarists, then the dirty Commies, and now the nasty Putinists, and each time given the opportunity the Ukrainians quickly declared their independence from those despots and fought for their freedom. They deserve to win their liberty this time and I for one am darn glad to see that my country is helping them achieve it.

Trump was right when he says if Biden hadn't been elected there would be no war in Ukraine!

No he would have just stood by and let Putin's tanks roll over Ukraine and enslave 50 million people.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

To understand the Ukrainians I think we have go further back then to the year where the Maidan revolution toke place. That's not enough we have to go even further back before 1991 referendum.

What I have learned is that Ukraine since they voted for independens was their wish to be West European a member of EU and later NATO.

If I remember correctly it wasn't so far in time from the People in Kyiv manage to throw the elected leader out of office, until groups in Donbass and Luhansk claimed independens from Ukraine.

Yanukovich told them he would lead Ukaine further to the West, but when he had been elected, he suddenly let his mask fall and tried to shift Ukraine towards russia. That was not what the peope, the vast majority of the total population, had elected him for. He betrayed them. No wonder they kicked him out.

Even the oblasten Donetzk and Luhansk had a minority only of Russia-friendly people durign last known census in Ukraine from early in the 00-years. I posted that data over one year ago, it is somewhere. I remember that the numbers were in the range of 30-35% I think. The only oblast where they really had a majority was Crimea, only here more than 50% of the people wanted a stronger association to Russia, 56% is on my mind, but dont call me out for it. How many of these still want to turn to Russia in all three oblasten now that they have seen what Russia is doing to them as well, can only be estimated. I assume it is less, but the remaining one have become even more detemrined and bitter. Odessa was before the war very Russia-friendly, but the Russian deeds have turned even the pro-Russians very anti-Russian, they said in a docu on Odessa form last year. 90% they said in that film of those who were pro-Russian, now willingly fight against Russia.

It was around this time Russia came to their aid and occupied Crimea

Russia did not come to their help. Russia came to plunder what it had always wanted in the first : Crimea, and Ukraine becoming Russian prey. Clinton told media that Putin once told him he did not accept the treaties and guarantees for Ukraine and that he did not felt bound by them and would not respect them. Clinton said that since then it was clear to him that the Russians sooner or later would come down on Ukraine.


If you want to know why the Ukrainians are so resolute to defend their freedom and independence, you have to go back into the medieval. While in Europe the feudal system prevailed and the farmers/peasants "an die Scholle gebunden waren" (sorry, I fail to find a correct English translation here), and also in Russia the peasants were serfs (Leibeigene), the Ukrainian farmers/peasants were independent and willing to fight in defence, they were so-called "Wehrbauern". This bad habit of not wanting to be enslaved has brought them several times into the pleasure of Russian subjugation attempts - and now also. Its probably also explains why many ukrainians feel a so deep connection to their land, less the political dimension I mean, but the love for the farmland, the landscape, the natural, real ground.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by August

Closer ties as in that between a rapist and his victim you mean.

The Russians have forcibly conquered Ukraine twice in the past and now they are attempting to do so again.

First it was the corrupt Tsarists, then the dirty Commies, and now the nasty Putinists, and each time given the opportunity the Ukrainians quickly declared their independence from those despots and fought for their freedom. They deserve to win their liberty this time and I for one am darn glad to see that my country is helping them achieve it.




No he would have just stood by and let Putin's tanks roll over Ukraine and enslave 50 million people.

Very well put Dave

[Jimbuna]