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Old 05-06-22, 09:09 AM   #3736
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The Russian war of aggression on Ukraine has been going on for two and a half months now, and there is no end in sight. On the contrary, the merciless shelling of the port city of Mariupol by Putin's army just 50 kilometers west of the Russian border shows that the horror knows no bounds. And there are also growing concerns that the war could spread.

Against this backdrop, the debate over the supply of heavy weapons such as howitzers and battle tanks to Ukraine to fight the Kremlin warmonger's troops is gaining momentum, especially in Germany. Two different groups of artists and intellectuals have sent open letters to Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). The first spoke out against the deliveries , the second in favor.

According to a May 4 Forsa poll, 57 percent of Germans believe that the risk of expanding war has increased as a result of the Bundestag's decision to supply heavy weapons. 586 deputies had voted in favor on April 27, only 100 against, and seven abstained.

The delivery of seven heavy, state-of-the-art artillery pieces from Germany to Ukraine - the "Panzerhaubitzen 2000" - is not without controversy even in military circles. Unlike in the population, however, the concern behind this is not the expansion of a war. Rather, it is feared that this would weaken the Bundeswehr too much and that it would not be able to fulfill its alliance obligations.

The problem: since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the security situation on NATO's eastern flank has suddenly deteriorated dramatically. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, both EU and NATO members, border Russia directly. And Poland, with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, has a thorn in its flesh from which the Kremlin could fire Iskander missiles with nuclear warheads as far as Berlin in a matter of minutes.

More than three decades after the end of the Cold War, however, NATO's conventional combat power in Europe has declined dramatically - despite the alliance's eastward expansion. Therefore, it is "especially now more important than ever" that Germany fulfills its NATO obligations, warned Heinrich Brauß, until 2018 NATO's Assistant Secretary General for Defense Policy and Force Planning, now in an interview with FOCUS Online . The Bundeswehr will take over the leadership of the Rapid Reaction Force, also called the "spearhead of NATO," next year. This force of up to 20,000 soldiers can be deployed wherever it is needed in a maximum of 72 hours.

What Germany does not need at the moment, however, is "the fanning of fear in the population through ill-considered statements by politicians," says a high-ranking ex-NATO general in an interview with FOCUS Online. However, he does not want to see his name published on this sensitive issue. "I think it's really stupid talk to link the supply of heavy weapons with the threat of a third world war or even nuclear war. Just as Chancellor Scholz implied in his recent interview with 'Der Spiegel,'" the former top officer said.

Above all, "you don't talk about a nuclear war in public," the military expert adds. Scholz had said in "Der Spiegel" in connection with the deliveries of heavy weapons that a "military confrontation" between NATO and the "nuclear power Russia" must be avoided at all costs. "I am doing everything to prevent an escalation that would lead to a third world war. There must be no nuclear war."

The ex-Nato general said that the chancellor achieves nothing with such statements other than "carrying uncertainty into the population." In addition, Scholz is making himself susceptible to blackmail by the Russian side. Putin's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov immediately returned Scholz's advantage.

Lavrov now actually speaks of a "proxy war" between NATO and Russia via Ukraine. One day before the vote on further German arms deliveries in the Bundestag, Lavrov warned of the danger of a world war including the use of nuclear weapons. "I wonder what kind of advisers Olaf Scholz has there," the military expert wondered.


dpa graphic Example of the presumed range of the Russian cruise missile 9M729, starting from the Kaliningrad oblast.

But not all military experts see it that way. "The question of whether the war in Ukraine could turn into a war over Ukraine has been on my mind for quite a while," says another senior retired German NATO general in an interview with FOCUS Online. The officer also prefers to remain anonymous on the subject.
His main concern is not the debate over the likelihood of nuclear war. "I think the nuclear balance is still stable. The red phones between Moscow and Washington have all been reactivated. But below that level, in conventional weapons, that balance has not existed in Europe for a long time," says the retired general.

Until the end of the Cold War, the Bundeswehr had forces of just under half a million men plus three times as many reservists at its disposal, the expert says. Today, however, there are only 295,000 servicemen and women. And they are plagued by chronic material and weapons problems. At that time, the Bundeswehr had 4600 battle tanks at its disposal. The Bundeswehr is now miles away from being able to defend its own country," says the ex-military officer.

In principle, NATO is capable of defending itself against an aggressor like Russia with conventional weapons, the expert emphasizes. The problem, however, is that neither the French nor the British nor the Germans currently have contingents on NATO's eastern flank that could seriously counter a possible Russian expansion of the war.

More seriously, he said, the U.S. has significantly downsized its military presence in Europe since 1990. "It would take months for the U.S. to have its equipment shipped back across the Atlantic and carted to NATO's eastern flank ready for deployment," he said. Putin, on the other hand, if he wanted to get serious, could be on the German border in four to six weeks." To be sure, the media in this country often convey a desolate picture of the state of Russia's armed forces when reporting on the Ukraine war. "But Putin's troops still have reserves that should not be forgotten." The other ex-Nato general also sees the danger of escalation on NATO's eastern flank rising significantly.

Against this backdrop, the military expert, who was once also a member of the Bundeswehr's top command, believes it is simply "the duty of the German chancellor to inform the citizens about this risk. "This risk is not abstract, it is real."

At the same time, he urged that Western states keep a close eye on what Ukraine is doing with the weapons it supplies. Their purpose, he said, was a defense against the Russian army's attack, which is against international law. If, on the other hand, Ukraine were to become so strong through military support that it set its sights on retaking annexed Crimea and the Donbass regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, this could significantly increase tensions between Russia and NATO, the ex-general said.

Meanwhile, a new legal opinion by the German parliament's Scientific Service concludes that arms deliveries to Ukraine cannot be considered an act of war - regardless of the type of weapons involved. However, according to "Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland" (RND), the paper also warns that the West would be "leaving the safe area of non-warfare" if it instructed or trained the party to the conflict - in this case Ukraine - on these weapons.

The U.S. has also already expanded the strategic focus of its support, the ex-general continued. "We want to see Russia weakened to the point where it will no longer be able to do things like this, which it did with the invasion of Ukraine," U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyi in person in Kiev in late April. Such an expansion of military assistance to Ukraine would go well beyond countering the attack. According to the ex-general, "That's where the point looms where Russia could say, 'We're under attack.'"
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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Old 05-06-22, 09:14 AM   #3737
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Hungary vetoes an EU gas embargo - [EDIT: correction: its even just an oil embargo they are against] -, saying it would be like dropping a nuclear bomb on the Hungarian economy. They also reject any delayed timetables, but vetoe it on principle reasons. Slovenia joins Hungary.



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There is a threat of problems with the delivery of tanks to Ukraine. The ring swap announced on April 21, in which Slovenia is to supply tanks to Ukraine and Germany to Slovenia, is stalling. The problem: The Slovenians do not want to be fobbed off by Germany with ancient tanks. Der Spiegel" reports on this.

The Leopard 2 main battle tanks and Puma infantry fighting vehicles promised by Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht are not available, Lambrecht's department head told the political director in Slovenia's defense ministry. Instead, according to a protocol obtained by "Der Spiegel," Germany offered the obsolete "Marder" and "Fuchs" models.

However, Slovenia did not agree to this deal. According to the memo, the Slovenian politician replied that "the sale of battle tanks can only be compensated for by other battle tanks. Anything else would not be acceptable in Slovenia. He is more flexible when it comes to infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine.

However, Slovenia does not want to have a model like the Marder, as it is planning to modernize its armed forces. In principle, Slovenia is prepared to hand over 30 T-72 main battle tanks and 35 modernized Soviet BMP1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. The prerequisite is "adequate" compensation from Germany.

The problem in Germany: The stock of "Leopard 2" tanks "is not sufficient to cover the structural requirements", a transfer "would hit the army hard". The same would apply to "Puma" tanks. The confidential paper lists several proposed solutions, none of which has been implemented to date.
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Old 05-06-22, 09:47 AM   #3738
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Hungary vetoes an EU gas embargo - [EDIT: correction: its even just an oil embargo they are against] -, saying it would be like dropping a nuclear bomb on the Hungarian economy. They also reject any delayed timetables, but vetoe it on principle reasons. Slovenia joins Hungary.



FOCUS:
There is a threat of problems with the delivery of tanks to Ukraine. The ring swap announced on April 21, in which Slovenia is to supply tanks to Ukraine and Germany to Slovenia, is stalling. The problem: The Slovenians do not want to be fobbed off by Germany with ancient tanks. Der Spiegel" reports on this.

The Leopard 2 main battle tanks and Puma infantry fighting vehicles promised by Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht are not available, Lambrecht's department head told the political director in Slovenia's defense ministry. Instead, according to a protocol obtained by "Der Spiegel," Germany offered the obsolete "Marder" and "Fuchs" models.

However, Slovenia did not agree to this deal. According to the memo, the Slovenian politician replied that "the sale of battle tanks can only be compensated for by other battle tanks. Anything else would not be acceptable in Slovenia. He is more flexible when it comes to infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine.

However, Slovenia does not want to have a model like the Marder, as it is planning to modernize its armed forces. In principle, Slovenia is prepared to hand over 30 T-72 main battle tanks and 35 modernized Soviet BMP1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. The prerequisite is "adequate" compensation from Germany.

The problem in Germany: The stock of "Leopard 2" tanks "is not sufficient to cover the structural requirements", a transfer "would hit the army hard". The same would apply to "Puma" tanks. The confidential paper lists several proposed solutions, none of which has been implemented to date.
i hadn't been playing much attention in eu but not surprise that Hungary veto it seem like they and putin is butt buddies if i remember right
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Old 05-06-22, 10:53 AM   #3739
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Even if this was true, does this justify an invasion?
The Oligarch? No, just good information to have, I heard it mentioned a few weeks ago and just remembered to look it up. This guy has stolen billions from Ukraine and billions from Russian oligarchs! Fair to say as long as we are sending him billions of dollars in aid there will be an effect on peace negotiations or even the strategy of the war. Maybe when I write my monthly check on some federal taxes I owe I'll write memo: "for Ihor K."

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Old 05-06-22, 11:12 AM   #3740
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There was a report a few days ago on the TV, 2 hours, about Zelensky's life, what he did before, how he became president, and how much money he earned, has, and earns.
Zelensky had founded a company Kvartal 95 Studio (Ukrainian: Сту́дія «Кварта́л-95»; Russian: Сту́дия «Кварта́л-95») and is a publicly held television entertainment production company, operating in Ukraine since 2003.
What this report clearly showed was that Ukraine was not a third world underdeveloped sh!thole, b ut a country on the way to become an international partner
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kvartal_95_Studio)
His current wealth or net worth is about 2-8 million dollars before he transferred or sold the company after becoming president.
All i read afterwards supports this, just not some conspiracy theories. Oligarchs have nothing to do with it.
Also Zelensky does not seem to be a billionaire, as it is stated in some russian videos, certainly to discredit him. https://www.reuters.com/article/fact...-idUSL2N2WI1ES
https://time.com/6171277/volodymyr-z...w-ukraine-war/
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Old 05-06-22, 11:22 AM   #3741
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re Skybird as i heard today via DLF Germany will instantly deliver 7 of PzH 2000 mobile tanks just coming out of repair and maintenance, together with the Cobra and Adler system. Ukrainian soldiers will have to learn how the system works, but it is not that complicated.
Gepard tanks will also be delivered, however this system seems more complicated than the newer ones.

"Heard today" does not mean it has to be true of course.

edit: transport starts "next week"
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Old 05-06-22, 11:51 AM   #3742
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Seems another russian warship sank in the Black sea.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-...rship-26889015



Russia is the first navy to lose a sea war against a nation without a navy.
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Old 05-06-22, 12:03 PM   #3743
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^ You video link made me think of this article from BBC

Quote:
The US provided intelligence that helped Ukraine sink the Moskva, Russia's flagship Black Sea missile cruiser, several US media report.

Unnamed officials said Ukraine had asked the US about a ship sailing to the south of Odesa.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61343044

If it's true and they(USA)even helped Ukraine with this one I don't know what Russia is going to do about it

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Old 05-06-22, 12:16 PM   #3744
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If it's true and they(USA)even helped Ukraine with this one I don't know what Russia is going to do about it Markus
Well i don't know either. But I doubt Russia does.
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Old 05-06-22, 12:26 PM   #3745
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Old 05-06-22, 12:29 PM   #3746
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Catfish, by all what the BW says the PZH2000 is a VERY complex system if to be sued to its full potential, one speaker a few deays backl said it were the most complex combat platform ever being used by the BW. The training of the 20 (!) Ukrianain soldiers will take 43 days, 6 weeks. When they return and - maybe! - the hardware with them, they will spend more time with then distzrubuting their traning and learned knoweldge to other ukrianain sol,diers manning those howitzers. There are 12 systems form NL and D, so they need 120 crew members for full crew strength - and that is just one "shift" so to speak, and doe snto allow any losses and leaves due to illness (even in war soldiuers can suffer serious illness that indeed take them out fo action. So you need to train even mroe than just 20 now and 100 later.


Then there is the logistics issue, for ammunition and spareparts.



I do not expect the PZH to see combat action before 2-3 months from now on.


Spcial stress is ont eh driver,s for they are also those who will fave major burden from maintaining the mechanical needfs of thre hardware, and repair any damages to tracks, wheels, mechanical things.



No word to what degree Ukrainian army is capable to integrate the digital systems of the PZH into thei command and communication structure. This is necessary, however, without that the PZH looses its major advantage. It spossibloe the Ukrianaisn cna do that due to their trainign by US and UK trainers over years and teir doctirne beign chnaged to reflkect and beign compatabile with NATO standards, but certain and confirmed this is not. Currently its a hope they can do it, not more.



Here is praying that the facists do not discover a newly awakend appetite for adventures in the Suvalki gap. The BW is just about to give up 20% of its already extremely limited pool of operational self propelled artillery.


Euroipean natiosn, even the Wetsenr and Slouthern ones like France, Spain, Britain, need to start shuffling forces to NATO's eastern flank. What use is in NAOT forces in princpel beign able to take on the rsusians, if their forces are mostly scattered around the whole continent and being placed far, far awar from the focus of action? Currently the allianc eprjects only a fraciton of its forces into the hoitspot where forces are needed. Thats is a terribly huge mistake. Combat power must be amassed and focussed. Ours/NATO's is distracted, kept away, out of reach.


And I wonder what has come fo that US nuclear unti thast was ertatcivated meanwzile i Germany, some weeks ago. Have they already gotten tactical missiles back in Germany? It snot about me wantign to bstart a nukie party, but about believable deterrance to prevent the fascists doing something mad in Kaliningrad.
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Old 05-06-22, 01:33 PM   #3747
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The Pope? How many divisions as he got?
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Old 05-06-22, 01:36 PM   #3748
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^ You video link made me think of this article from BBC



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61343044

If it's true and they(USA)even helped Ukraine with this one I don't know what Russia is going to do about it

Markus
A lot of intelligent services in the west help Ukraine this made public will have a reason.
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Old 05-06-22, 02:00 PM   #3749
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Well i don't know either. But I doubt Russia does.

This really is a rather old game. When the U.S was involved in the Korean War and Vietnam, Russia did far worse. U.S pilots in both wars encountered not only Russian weapons but also Russian military personnel, Including Russian pilots.

Downed Russian aircraft were recovered along with their pilots, many of which were Russian pilots. This was a proving ground for Russia and very much a proxy war, just as Russia sees U.S " interference " in the Ukraine.

The reality is, Russia expected the U.S to oppose them and furnish weapons to the Ukrainians or any other party opposing them.

Russia can't do anything to stop the shipment of weapons unless the shipments are attacked in the Ukraine. If Russia attacks weapon shipments in a NATO country, they know full well they will face the U.S and it's allies up close and personal. In light of the logistical issues Russia has had and the Incompetence of the Russian forces and difficulties it faces with the Ukrainian military forces, this would be a rather stupid move. However, no one ever accused Putin and his forces of being smart though.


https://www.rbth.com/history/332396-...inst-americans



https://www.rbth.com/blogs/2015/04/3..._weapons_42917


https://www.airforcemag.com/article/0291russians/


http://www.koreanwaronline.com/arms/RussianPilots.htm
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Old 05-06-22, 02:59 PM   #3750
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White House: role of US in attack on Moskva is overstated

The White House says the role played by U.S. intelligence agencies in the war in Ukraine is overstated. Anonymous sources within the U.S. government tell The New York Times that Ukraine was able to take out Russian generals and attack the flagship Moskva with help from U.S. intelligence.

"These reports are not accurate," said White House spokesperson Jen Psaki. "We did not give Ukraine specific targeting information on the Moskva. We were not involved in the decision to attack the ship. The Ukrainians have their own capabilities to track down Russian naval vessels and take them under fire. They did so in this case."

According to the White House, the role of Ukrainian intelligence is underestimated. "They have more information and better access to information than we do."
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