The CHN/ China thread

[ET2SN]

Just some FYI:

Do not project your "norms", practical knowledge and quick solutions on China.
They have been around for a long, long time.

If Xi is willing to strangle the golden goose (trade) in order to get tough with the world, that will be his *** in the wringer. There's nothing like a global pandemic to bring nations together, and I've been pleasantly surprised in some of the united fronts who are willing to say, "Oh, no you don't".

Its one thing to have a powerful air force and navy. Its a whole different ball game in knowing how to use them.

Carry on.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/17/c...hnk/index.html

[Skybird]

The merchant ferries. The militia ships. Hear, hear...


https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/25/a...dst/index.html

Essentially, experts say, the Fujian might be China's biggest ship, but it's probably not the biggest problem on the minds of US naval commanders right now.
Here are four types of ship at China's disposal that arguably pose a far greater threat to US naval dominance.

[Jimbuna]

^ That was a good read

[Buddahaid]

More dope on number 003.

[Skybird]

In light of Russia's setbacks in the Ukraine war, China could adjust its strategy for a possible attack on Taiwan, according to the U.S. foreign intelligence agency CIA. The leadership in Beijing, however, is unlikely to back away from its plans to take violent action against Taiwan despite Russia's "strategic failure" in Ukraine, CIA chief William Burns said Wednesday at a security conference in Aspen. China's ambassador asserted that his country seeks "peaceful reunification."

China's leadership is "uneasy" about the setbacks to the Russian army in Ukraine, Burns said at the Aspen Security Forum. But he said this has less bearing on "whether" Chinese leaders might decide to "use force to control Taiwan" in a few years, and more on "how and when they would do it."

The determination of China's President Xi Jinping to gain control of Taiwan, however, "should not be underestimated," the CIA chief stressed. China is likely to learn the lesson that "quick, decisive victories" can be achieved only if "overwhelming forces" are assembled, the CIA chief said. In addition, he said, China has probably learned that it needs to hedge its economy against possible sanctions.

Der Spiegel

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

What a surprise - not!



https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/23/p...ear/index.html


Years ago I owned a Huawei P8. Good phone, thin and small and capable. But I will not buy Chinese tech stuff again, not even order - knowingly - from China again.


Once you stopped believing the stork bringing babies, and Santa Claus and the Easter bunny, you never can go back to those happy times of your early childhood. And once you identified an enemy, you can not go back to see in him your friend, you partner, your ally again.

[Jimbuna]

I'd give them (China) an A for trying though

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/01/p...sit/index.html

Chinese interceptors are scrambling to shoot her down.

It seems she wants to indeed force the US to clear its position over Taiwan. "Strategic ambiguity" is nonsense. Its nonsense when Bubble Olaf used it to explain his back-and-forth manouvering towards Putin before the war, and its nonsense with the US's stand regarding Taiwan. Strategic ambiguity signals only one thing: that one is weaseling and plays clever wordgames because one is scared out of one's pants.
Western dependency on Taiwan's chip production is more threatening than our dependency on Russian gas. Same goes for Europe's dependency on pharmaceuticals and medical supplies from Asia, namely India.

Der Tagesspiegel writes:

Is Europe and the U.S. threatening a two-front war against China and Russia - triggered by a dramatic clumsiness of U.S. policy? On August 1, of all days, tensions with Beijing are growing over plans by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan.

On the founding day of the People's Army, China celebrates its imperial ambition with nationalist rhetoric. It views democratic Taiwan as a renegade province with no right to its own foreign policy.

China threatens to intercept Pelosi's plane. "If you play with fire, you will get burned," President Xi warned Joe Biden by phone. Now China is holding live ammunition maneuvers opposite the island of Taiwan.

Viewed from Germany, Taiwan may seem far away. And the conflict over its status under international law and the future of its democracy may seem secondary.

An outbreak of war is likely to change that in a flash. It would ominously exacerbate Europe's precarious security situation and economic and political blackmail vulnerability, which the fighting in Ukraine has exposed.

The dependence on strategically important goods from Asia, from semiconductors for the auto industry to pharmaceuticals, is even higher than that on Russian gas. And how will Europe stand up to Russia militarily when the United States is focusing its forces on the conflict in the Pacific? The success of the Ukrainian counterforce owes more to U.S. assistance than to Europe.

The escalation in Taiwan is a double alarm signal for Germany and the EU: In the short term, the threat of war must be averted. In the medium term, they must review all areas of their relations with China to see where existential dependencies threaten and reduce them. Experts have long been warning of a war over Taiwan.

The current situation can be eased. The future is uncertain.

Europe has little influence on the current escalation. It is reassuring that Biden and Xi spoke on the phone for more than two hours. Their goal is détente. Domestic crises are putting so much pressure on both that they must avoid a war over Taiwan at all costs.

Here as there, the economy is the biggest concern. The US faces the twin threats of inflation and recession. China's zero-covid strategy has failed. In the absence of growth, there is no money to combat the many structural problems and keep citizens happy with prosperity gains.

The residual risk of escalation comes from Xi and his nationalist zeal. Biden's popularity would not grow through another war. Xi wants to stay at the top for longer than ten years, contrary to the usual limits on power, and needs the party's blessing to do so.
Pelosi made a mistake, but the real danger comes from Xi

The danger of war over Taiwan will not diminish in the next few years. China bears most of the blame.

Pelosi cannot be blamed for wanting to visit Taiwan. Predecessors have done so, and so have European politicians. Democracies must stand together and show that.

Pelosi's mistake was her insensitive choice of date after the original trip was canceled in the spring because of Covid. Her visit may be postponed again. It must not be cancelled, certainly not after the unacceptable threats to shoot down her plane.

Germany and Europe must now do everything to ensure that their ability to act in the event of a Taiwan war does not suffer from economic dependencies as in the case of Ukraine. Taiwan is a front-runner in semiconductor production, but so far has not met Europe's requests to move some of its manufacturing to the EU.
Deal: Assistance for Taiwan in exchange for building a chip factory in Europe

Why not counter deals that benefit everyone, along the lines of Taiwan getting more political and military support from Europe and the U.S. if it builds chip factories here.

This also serves peace. China could then not speculate that the West would not stand by Taiwan in the event of an attack because it fears for the supply of vital goods from Asia.

[mapuc]

Thank you Skybird for providing an interesting article. Since I read about Pelosi's plan on paying Taiwan a one day visit. I have been wondering how they would react to this.

They don't take it easy they are angry.
Is there anything they can do about it-Of course there is a lot they can do-
The question is: Are they interested in losing what they have archieved until now

Markus

[Jimbuna]

'Just thinking out loud Sky'

If China moves militarily against Taiwan, what in all practical honesty can the USA do?

I'm of the opinion China fear trade sanctions more than Putin does and truly believe Xi is more level headed than Putin....but in the back of my head I keep hearing the voices saying "expect the unexpected"

I seriously doubt Taiwan would hold out as long as Ukraine have.

[Skybird]

Me too thinks the US is not really capable or determined to defend Taiwan, I say since years that I would take an American naval victory not for granted even if the war would take place, and the balances are shifting constantly in China'S favour, militarily. I admit already now I would pout my money on China. They still run an incredible arms boosting program, whereas the US struggles to keep its goals for ship and submarine numbers on the levels projected for the coming 20 years. The Ukraine war teaches China that they must strike the first attack much tougher than they probably previously assumed. The war is delayed, but when it then comes, imo inevitably, it will be starting even "louder", much more devastating and destructive. The task to get troops acroiss the strait, take the beaches and then take the diffiocult gegraphy of Taiwan, is huge, but I think if you have the willingness to use the ammounts of destruction and brute forces needed to simply wipe out what is there, they can do it. With horrendous losses, "but that is no problem".


I do not trust the US capability anymore to effectively use its carriers in the to be expected combat theatres. The Chinese will start the war not as long as they cannot guarantee to keep the carriers too far away - or destroy them.



Xi is obsessed with nationalism as so many autocratic leaders of his kind are, including Putin, and wants reunfication, no matter in which way, until 2049, some historic thing that is for him and China. He also has given orders for readjusting the economic orientation towards becoming much less dependent from foreign investors and cooperations, and become more autark, that is a lesson he probably learns also from the current war, from Russia'S example. When China one day starts to the war, we can assume, I think, it will be far less vulnerable for sanctions than Russia. And even Russia now does not see its war fighting affected by the sanctions.



The Taiwanese morale and support for its armed forces I ealrier this year red to have substantially suffered in recent years, they have equipmment of thi quality and that quanitty, but the willingness of volunteer d to dinate themsekves to the cause was describe din that analysis to be questionable. Hard to preidct what comes of that when China gets real, but the needed training and experience gathering in the years before that boiling point obviously will be missing then.



China wants Taiwan, and they will prefer to completely destroy it and all its industrial assets to letting it live independently. This is what the West must understand: the Chinese ambition has little to do with conquering industrial assets and economic gains, its about subjugation alone - and if the slave refuses to kneel: his execution.



We need to become far more independent from Taiwan in high tech production like we need to become in dependent from the pharmaceutical production in India. Currently, we beg everybody to blackmail us.



We should work with maximum urgency to turn Taiwan into a place that is over and over pickled with ASMs and SAMs. Much more than there are now.



And Europe? Cannot handle the Russians alone, so when America is bound in Asia, its currenty problems will even widen fundamentally. The only thing that can prevcent this is a Russia that weklanes itseldf due to inner collapse. They all wish for that to happen. They all try to conjure exaclty this scenario. So far I do not see it happening, so far its wishful thinking.



The EU wanst to play at the boig table, but it cannot and never will be. Europe's historic cycle in world history is in decline, and steeply so now. Its a secondary, minor player only.

[August]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I seriously doubt Taiwan would hold out as long as Ukraine have.

You might be right although from what I read the island nation has terrain that is much more suitable for defense and could really give the ChiComs a bloody nose if set up and conducted with some competence.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Thank you Skybird for providing an interesting article. Since I read about Pelosi's plan on paying Taiwan a one day visit. I have been wondering how they would react to this.

They don't take it easy they are angry.
Is there anything they can do about it-Of course there is a lot they can do-
The question is: Are they interested in losing what they have archieved until now

Who says they see that they are loosing something? In the recent years they showed ostentatious self-confidence and intimidated riparian states ever more brutally and ruthlessly.


If the approach vector of Pelosi's plane allows it, its very realistic that they would send fighters and "escort"it close to Taiwan, maybe even try to force it to alter its course. Anything must be expected.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Who says they see that they are loosing something? In the recent years they showed ostentatious self-confidence and intimidated riparian states ever more brutally and ruthlessly.


If the approach vector of Pelosi's plane allows it, its very realistic that they would send fighters and "escort"it close to Taiwan, maybe even try to force it to alter its course. Anything must be expected.

I hope you're right Skybird ´cause I don't like the alternative.

Oh forgot what you wrote as an answer to Jim so there seems to be no alternative-

I could very well imagine following:
China try to intercept maybe fire some shots some meters in front of the plane Pelosi is on, trying to get it to alter course.

In USA there will be rage-Politicians and citizens demands action..which wouldn't come..as you wrote "the US is not really capable or determined to defend Taiwan, I say since years that I would take an American naval victory not for granted even if the war would take place"

Top leaders and top politician in USA know this too.

Then I could be wrong and USA does send a huge bunch of JASSM towards China's military and infrastructure.

Lets hope it stay with big words from China and do not escalate.

Edit
The question is who's going to blink first.
I say it will be USA-Biden will call Pelosi ask her to skip Taiwan.
End edit

Markus