Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

The Rheinmetall defence group says it has received a billion-euro order from the German armed forces for the supply of tank ammunition. An existing framework contract for ammunition deliveries worth up to €556 million from 2020 has been increased to a volume of around €4 billion.

After 17 months into the war!

[Exocet25fr]

And now: US Fiona Scott Morton appointed Chief Economist of EU.....

https://cepr.org/about/news/fiona-sc...al-competition

[ET2SN]

I wish these experts that use the term "decimation" would use it in the proper context. It sounds scary but decimation means a 10% loss rate and we are talking about large battles that take place during an invasion.

Haven't these authors ever played World Of Tanks?

[August]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

I wish these experts that use the term "decimation" would use it in the proper context. It sounds scary but decimation means a 10% loss rate and we are talking about large battles that take place during an invasion.

Haven't these authors ever played World Of Tanks?

Well the word has come to mean more than just a punitive punishment inflicted upon 10% of a Roman military unit, which in any case would have not been called "decimation" but rather "decimatio" in Latin.

The modern definition of decimation is a more amorphous "significant number of something" than a particular percentage.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

We do not have first hand information, only what the media and the propaganda channels - if both are not the same... - are releasing.

Judging by these, I see the offensive in real danger of ultimately bogging down. It seesm as if territorial gains are anything but decisive, everywehre, and have come from a slow pace to a crawl. Modern mines, artillery delivered mines, top attack mines, Russian kamikaze drones, now apparent air superiority, intel drones, successful jamming by Russians and deliberate attacks on the small cleared pathways through minefields force the Ukrainains apparently to movement at snail speed, if anything in recent 7-10 days the speed of their advance seems to have dropped even further than to stay constant or become faster.

In other words, the planned attempt at aggressive manoeuvre warfare that would bring benefits to Ukraine is increasingly turning back into a stationary war of attrition again - and that favours the Russians. They have prepared their defence grounds, and they have prepared it well. Time enough they have had.

Things are not going well. Not even contact with the first Russian defence line while alrready having suffered substantial losses, that cannot be glossed over, even if you have to expect higher losses for the attacker.

And the Ukrainians have still not managed to penetrate even to the first line of defence (of three), let alone make a breakthrough in it. Anything they publicise in terms of successes doesn't really seem weighty to me. The victories that the Ukrainians have achieved are not decisive. The amount of the Ukrainian losses, on the other hand, is likely to be more significant and higher than Ukraine wants to make known.

No, I really don't think things are going well. Let's hope that the recently delivered cluster munitions for the artillery will make a difference. My scepticism has grown in the past 4 weeks.



In parts ther Germans have to be held repsonsible. Their endless hesitation caused delays in the equipping of the Ukrainian brigades that gave Russia the time to fortify and prepare its defences, more and more with every week and every month passing by.

[Jimbuna]

[Exocet25fr]

https://www.agoravox.fr/IMG/jpg/F0YA...lenskylost.jpg

[Dargo]

Large losses and a lack of reserve troops to replace tired soldiers at the front are likely to leave Russia's defences in Ukraine vulnerable, writes the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukraine is trying to exhaust the Russians with constant artillery shelling and small arms attacks. On the southern front, Russia's defences are further disrupted by the dismissal of General Ivan Popov, ISW expects. Popov was dismissed after criticising Russia's army leadership. The general commanded the 58th army, which is responsible for defending the front in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya province. Although the impact of his departure will be "marginal", according to the think tank, his criticism shows the fragility of Russia's defences. In the coming weeks, Ukraine will try to take advantage of unrest within the Russian army leadership and fatigue among frontline soldiers.

Lieutenant general Oleg Tsokov is not the first general to die since the Russian invasion began. It is estimated that there are six to nine. The exact number is difficult to determine because the Russian army does not usually make statements about their deaths. The confirmation was therefore striking, as was Tsokov's rank. Not before did Ukraine encounter a general of his rank. He was a lieutenant general; so far only major generals have died. The question is how Ukraine always manages to successfully hit such targets. It is striking that Tsokov was so close to the front, within range of the Ukrainian army You would expect such a person to be further back, say in Rostov-on-Don.

Generals with this rank are not rare, believed to number hundreds in the Russian army. As a lieutenant general, Tsokov stood one rung higher than a major general. The number of Russian lieutenant generals is heading towards 60. Most casualties occurred early in the invasion, when generals had to move close to the front. The combat readiness of units was not always the same. Generals went to the front to encourage their troops. After that, no Russian generals died for months. Last month, that changed. Major General Sergei Gorkachev was presumably killed in a Ukrainian missile attack on a command centre on the southern front. Such attacks are part of the Ukrainian offensive, which began last month. Ukraine is really figuring out the patterns of key figures and how to target them. This is evident from the death of a commander in Krasnodar, Russia, who was shot dead while running. Ukraine traced his regular lap via the well-known sports app Strava.

In the place for which Lieutenant general Oleg Tsokov was responsible, the command temporarily falls away, which makes it difficult in the short term to get reserve troops in time to places where gaps threaten to fall in Russia's defences. You may assume he will be replaced quickly, but that does not happen overnight, a general gathers his own network around him, people he knows and trusts. Moreover, it is worse in Russia when a general falls away than in the West. A Russian general is personally responsible for the success of lower units. In the West, a sergeant can decide how to carry out an assignment, in the Russian army, orders are much more specific. In case of setbacks, they always have to report to their superiors for new orders. The loss of a general therefore hurts extra.

How Putin Cannibalizes the Russian Economy to Fund His War

Yale SOMÂ’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian write that the Russian leader is fueling battles in Ukraine by shaking down his own people and leveraging his country's future.

Nearly 18 months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine now, amidst last week’s failed coup attempt, battlefield setbacks, and global diplomatic condemnation, Putin is coming under increasing strain to finance his increasingly-expensive war—and there’s a history lesson for how this will all end.

Far from the prevailing narrative on how Putin funds his invasion, PutinÂ’s financial lifeline has his merciless cannibalization of Russian economic productivity. He has been burning the living room furniture to fuel his battles in Ukraine, but that is now starting to backfire amidst a deafening silence and dearth of public support. That is far from the prevailing narrative on how Putin funds his invasion. Ample western commentators posit that Putin is pulling in billions from trade to finance the invasion thanks to high commodity prices, weak western sanctions, and sanctions evasion.

But energy prices across both oil and natural gas are now cheaper today than before the invasion, as are grain, wheat, lumber, metals, and practically every commodity that Russia produces. Amidst lower commodity prices across the board, thanks in part to the effective G7 oil price cap, Russia is now barely breaking even on oil sales with unwanted Russian Urals oil trading at a persistent discount but continuing to flow in ample volumes – exactly as it was designed. In short, the world has now largely replaced Russian supplies so commodity exports are no boon to a desperate Russia right now.

It is often overlooked that Putin is funding his invasion of Ukraine not only through marginal commodity exports or trickles of sanctions evasion but through the cannibalization of RussiaÂ’s productive economy. As an extractive authoritarian dictator with state control over 70% of the economy, Putin will never really run out of money since he can always pull the authoritarian equivalent of finding money under the couch, or pull a schoolhouse bully act and shake down kids (i.e. oligarchs) for their lunch money at recess time.

Putin has levied draconian “windfall taxes” on basically anything that moves. Many thought last year’s record $1.25 trillion ruble windfall tax on Gazprom and certain other Russian state owned businesses was a one-time occurrence, but Putin has only doubled down and ordered more windfall taxes in the months since, raising trillions of rubles more from companies and oligarchs alike. Likewise, first Putin resorted to levying onerous taxes on both companies and people leaving Russia after the invasion before he dropped all pretense and just started indiscriminately seizing money and property instead.

Similarly, Putin has abandoned all pretense of responsible fiscal policy, running record budget deficits, printing record amounts of money out of thin air, forcing Russian banks and individuals to buy near-worthless Russian debt, and drawing down RussiaÂ’s hundreds of billions in sovereign wealth funds, mortgaging away RussiaÂ’s future. No wonder disenchanted elites such as oligarch Oleg Deripaska are reduced to complaining to the press while across Russia, labor strikes are taking place with increasing frequency in a throwback to 1917 amidst already disastrous labor shortages.

Some, like Deripaska, even argue that Putin’s shakedowns are hurting the Russian economy even worse than western sanctions – which are already causing entire sectors of the Russian economy to implode, as we’ve shown before. And on top of sanctions, with over 1,000 western companies leaving Russia practically overnight, already Russian consumers are hard-pressed to find erstwhile staples, ranging from consumer electronics to automobiles.

Amidst such undisguised plundering of the Russian economy, stripping it down for war toys, it is perhaps no surprise that PrigozhinÂ’s failed putsch this past weekend revealed no lost love for Putin domestically from the Russian populace and elites. After all, not only did military leaders and civilians alike passively wave columns of Wagnerites through checkpoint after checkpoint on the road from Rostov to Moscow without a shred of resistance; even PutinÂ’s own regional governors were lethargic in their response, and even now, a whopping 21 of them have yet to express any support for Putin. Ironically, the only group of Russians who rushed to PutinÂ’s defense with any genuine enthusiasm prior to Belarusian President LukashenkoÂ’s diplomatic intervention were brigades of Chechens who sped to Moscow and Rostov, led by PutinÂ’s longtime ally and newly-minted selfie-pal Ramzan Kadyrov.

There is a historical pattern here. Of the two major Russian revolutions over the past century, both were undergirded by debilitating economic woes caused partially by military overreach and struggles on the battlefield. After all, wars are never cheap: economic analysts estimate that sustaining its military efforts costs Russia at least $1 billion a day, and it surely didnÂ’t help that Putin sunk billions in not only the Wagner Group but also PrigozhinÂ’s other companies. Likewise, World War I drained Tsar Nicholas IIÂ’s coffers prior to his abdication in 1917, when Russia was wracked by over 100 labor strikes amidst widespread famine, exacerbated by both forced conscription as well as returning military veterans. And prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the escalating costs of the Cold War combined with low oil prices and severe recession undermined the Soviet economy from within. Losing wars seems to go hand-in-hand with economic morass and regime change in Russia.

For over a year, we have been saying that the Russian economy was imploding despite claims of Russia’s economic resilience. That resilience is nothing but a Potemkin façade, sustained not through genuine economic productivity but rather through shaking down the entire country for pennies to direct towards war.. Putin can continue to sustain his invasion of Ukraine this way, but in doing so, continues to rip off his own people. In avoiding outright economic collapse by mortgaging Russia’s future, he grows more unloved by his people and is thus increasingly weakened. Economic decay is never the only cause of regime collapse; but nor should it be ignored as a demonstrated potent force in bringing down tyrannical regime after tyrannical regime, especially amidst military overreach.

Historian Daniel GoldhagenÂ’s 1996 book HitlerÂ’s Willing Executioners reminds us that the evil of the Third Reich triumphed through the complicity of average Germans through their complacency. We now see RussiansÂ’ willing complacency with the murderous, autocratic Putin. https://insights.som.yale.edu/insigh...o-fund-his-war

Originally Posted by Skybird

We do not have first hand information, only what the media and the propaganda channels - if both are not the same... - are releasing.

Judging by these, I see the offensive in real danger of ultimately bogging down. It seesm as if territorial gains are anything but decisive, everywehre, and have come from a slow pace to a crawl. Modern mines, artillery delivered mines, top attack mines, Russian kamikaze drones, now apparent air superiority, intel drones, successful jamming by Russians and deliberate attacks on the small cleared pathways through minefields force the Ukrainains apparently to movement at snail speed, if anything in recent 7-10 days the speed of their advance seems to have dropped even further than to stay constant or become faster.

In other words, the planned attempt at aggressive manoeuvre warfare that would bring benefits to Ukraine is increasingly turning back into a stationary war of attrition again - and that favours the Russians. They have prepared their defence grounds, and they have prepared it well. Time enough they have had.

Things are not going well. Not even contact with the first Russian defence line while alrready having suffered substantial losses, that cannot be glossed over, even if you have to expect higher losses for the attacker.

And the Ukrainians have still not managed to penetrate even to the first line of defence (of three), let alone make a breakthrough in it. Anything they publicise in terms of successes doesn't really seem weighty to me. The victories that the Ukrainians have achieved are not decisive. The amount of the Ukrainian losses, on the other hand, is likely to be more significant and higher than Ukraine wants to make known.

No, I really don't think things are going well. Let's hope that the recently delivered cluster munitions for the artillery will make a difference. My scepticism has grown in the past 4 weeks.



In parts ther Germans have to be held repsonsible. Their endless hesitation caused delays in the equipping of the Ukrainian brigades that gave Russia the time to fortify and prepare its defences, more and more with every week and every month passing by.

If the Ukrainians aren't recapturing large parcels of territory now, it is because that is not their main aim. They are trying to weaken Russian forces first, to give a subsequent forward movement the best chance for success.

Bulgaria openly sends arms to Ukraine for first time

Bulgaria is to send Ukraine 100 armoured vehicles. This is the first time the country has openly offered arms support to Ukraine. Before this, Bulgarian arms supplies - consisting solely of ammunition - were delivered to Ukraine through third countries. The turn comes after a new government took office last month. Bulgarian politics experienced a turbulent period in recent years, with five elections in two years. About half of Bulgaria's population opposes military aid to Ukraine. In no EU country is that group as large as in Bulgaria.

New Defence Minister Todor Tagarev is worried about Russian influence in the country, he tells Politico. "The Russian ambassador (in Bulgaria) speaks with the same voice as some political parties and influential politicians - and that is not the voice of our allies," Tagarev said. It is therefore a big step today for Bulgaria to join the European Defence Agency (EDA), which helps countries procure munitions as efficiently and cheaply as possible. On neutral Ireland, all EU member states are members of the EDA. In Ukraine, the Bulgarian weapons are also very welcome, as the country has a large amount of Soviet-made weapons and ammunition

[Jimbuna]

The words 'Putin' and 'Negotiate' do not sit well together.

[mapuc]

I guess it hasn't so much to do with strategy and fighting skills but also the mood the soldiers are in.

Here the Ukrainian soldiers are in a better mood than the Russian soldiers

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I guess it hasn't so much to do with strategy and fighting skills but also the mood the soldiers are in.

Here the Ukrainian soldiers are in a better mood than the Russian soldiers

Markus

The Ukrainian soldiers have something to fight for their freedom the Russians (most are not even from the region of Russia) have nothing payment is bad if they want leave they have to bribe their commander basically they have to bribe him for all food, ammo, protection gear they are stuck at the front in miserable conditions. This is the normal in the Russian army, always was.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Exocet25fr

https://www.agoravox.fr/IMG/jpg/F0YA...lenskylost.jpg

Found this at political forum, by a uk citizen (it seems)

"The Liberals have said that Putin is the new Hitler. That Russia is the new Nazi Germany. That Russia must be destroyed. I've got be honest with you the Liberals don't really seem to be taking this seriously. In World War 2 We had conscription of men, food rationing, over 40% of our GDP was spent on war. In Britain people seem far more interested in getting huge inflation fueling pay rises and going on strike than in supporting Ukraine.

Ukraine is conscripting her men. In the West, the Liberals have declared this impossible. We simply don't have the numbers of scientific specialists, qualified to tell what the difference between a man and a woman is."

[Skybird]

What people do not seem to see is that the time window for Ukraines offensive already is closing again. We are in mid july.