Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

While all this was happening, I sas wandering 35km in the Teutoburger Forest region, everything hurts and I feel more dead than alive.

[Skybird]

I told you 2 day ago, he looked isolated to me. Why he held back, you ask? First supplies, Wagner is not selfsustaining, but depends on the Russian army. Second, air power. The moment his troops sit still, the air force will and did take the invitation. That they shot down a few machines, may mean that the air force had not already adapted to the new situation. That would not stay forever so.
The regular army nlw is allowed to plunder itself prisons for recruits.
For Putin its in the main a loss of face. I am certain he is now after Prigozhins life.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I told you 2 day ago, he looked isolated to me. Why he held back, you ask? First supplies, Wagner is not selfsustaining, but depends on the Russian army. Second, air power. The moment his troops sit still, the air force will and did take the invitation. That they shot down a few machines, may mean that the air force had not already adapted to the new situation. That would not stay forever so.

He made a mistake yes but if you can travel with all kind of arms and nobody stops you can make deals he will have its African colonies full of gold and diamonds. Putin has a problem, a lot of his mafia boss's have seen him in a weak position and those sharks gone plan now to be Godfather. As far as the army and air force, are they just going to forget the humiliation of this day, guess not. Today was a shock to the system, nobody will trust each other again.

[Jimbuna]

I see Lukashenko is taking the credit for Prigozhin to agree to stop his operation. In exchange, Russian authorities dropped all charges against the mercenaries.

Several media clarified that Putin endorsed his intervention.



Then the band played 'Believe it if you like'

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Is Progozhin going to Belarus on,ly with is perosnal escort, or are all Wagners (=3 regiments, plus some) with him? If the latter, then his presence there might be a concern for Ukraine.


However, in the end whatever Prigozhin planned and hoped to acchieve, he failed. And he has now at the latest his head at the top of Putin's to-get-killed list.

[Moonlight]

If the main Wagner forces have left the front lines why haven't the Ukrainians taken advantage of that fact?, anybody got any idea of just what the hell is going on down there?.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Is Progozhin going to Belarus on,ly with is perosnal escort, or are all Wagners (=3 regiments, plus some) with him? If the latter, then his presence there might be a concern for Ukraine.


However, in the end whatever Prigozhin planned and hoped to acchieve, he failed. And he has now at the latest his head at the top of Putin's to-get-killed list.

For now it looks only with his personal guard, the regiment(s) said to be back in Ukraine or near the border of. It’s not clear what exactly he will do in Belarus, or how long he will remain there. Prigozhin also appears to have some powerful figures invested in him, including Yury Kovalchuk, a close friend of Putin and billionaire considered one of the most influential figures in Russia. The independent outlet Meduza cited a source close to the Kremlin last November who described Prigozhin as a “tool” of Yury Kovalchuk and his brother Mikhail. The Kovalchuk brothers were said to have partnered with Prigozhin on launching a “patriotic” and “anti-elitist” political movement that could eventually grow into a party. If he meets window or tea, it will not be now or in a short time may be that Moscow recognized the potential for Prigozhin being turned into a martyr if he were to go out in a blaze of glory in the midst of his or right after this rebellion.

Prigozhin’s rebellion — or insurrection — is a watershed moment for Russia and Putin. It is an unprecedented challenge to Putin’s rule and, of far greater consequence, to Putinism — Putin’s personal system of semi-totalitarian state control. The repercussions of recent days’ events will reverberate throughout Russia for months and years to come, regardless of their outcome.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...ine-war-a81623

It is too late for Putin and his system, the damage is already done.

[Skybird]

Speculative idea from the dark back corner of my mind: its was all staged to get Wagner forces unsuspiciously into Belarus - and then using them to start a coup to overthrow the Lukashenko regime.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Moonlight

If the main Wagner forces have left the front lines why haven't the Ukrainians taken advantage of that fact?, anybody got any idea of just what the hell is going on down there?.

Ukrainian forces went on the attack along two parts of the front yesterday, reportedly gaining ground. Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maljar claimed that Ukrainian attacks north and southwest of Bakhmut were successful. On the night from Friday to Saturday, the Ukrainians made some ground gains south of Orichiv, according to the US think tank Institute for the Study of War based on Russian bloggers.

But seeing how easy it is to drive to Moscow because Russia has only a few reserves in Russia, Ukraine could outflank the Russian defense lines via Russia to attack the main supply lines and the Russian defense lines from behind. Ukraine’s victory will be through that factions in Russia will go to war with themselves, rather than a straight battlefield victory. Ukraine’s task is to make it look like Russia will lose in such a way creates power imbalances between different factions, this is what they did with Bahkmut.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Speculative idea from the dark back corner of my mind: its was all staged to get Wagner forces unsuspiciously into Belarus - and then using them to start a coup to overthrow the Lukashenko regime.

Putin was so impressed of "Operation Moscow in 1 day" that he send him to Belarus to start "Operation Kyiv in 1 hour"!

To summarize: Prigozhin, Lukashenko and nuclear weapons in Belarus, what could possible go wrong?

[Jimbuna]

Can't decide if this is a coincidence or not but the two people Prigozhin was insistent on seeing personally, defence minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov neither of whom have been seen since yesterday.

Jumped before being thrown overboard perhaps?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Putin was so impressed of "Operation Moscow in 1 day" that he send him to Belarus to start "Operation Kijv in 1 hour"!

No, the speculative idea of mine is that Prigozhin acted on order by Putin. Putin wanted to get Wagner into Belarus, without raising Lukashenko's supsicion.

Just a speculation.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Can't decide if this is a coincidence or not but the two people Prigozhin was insistent on seeing personally, defence minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov neither of whom have been seen since yesterday.

Jumped before being thrown overboard perhaps?

Moscow's Red Square still closed on Sunday, it's like the regime is scared of the Russian people.

[Jimbuna]

For any 'revolution' to have any chance of success it would need the broad support of the civilian population.