UK Politics Thread part II

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Tories heading to worst General Election result since 1997 with shock poll predicting Rishi Sunak would lose 200 seats if votes were cast TODAY losing 11 cabinet ministers including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt

Rishi Sunak is heading for a 1997-style election wipeout, a major poll warned last night.

The survey of 14,000 voters found the Tories are on course to lose nearly 200 seats at this year’s General Election, giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.

The projected result would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906, with an 11.5 per cent swing to Labour.

At least 11 Cabinet ministers would lose seats, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Mr Hunt's constituency, South West Surrey, would be lost to the Liberal Democrats, the poll suggests.

This would make him the first Chancellor to lose their seat at an election, with other Tory MPs including Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Sir Iain Duncan Smith, also at risk.

The YouGov study also suggests the Reform Party could hinder Tory fortunes. Although Reform is not forecast to win any seats, it could cost Mr Sunak 96 MPs – the difference between a Labour landslide and a hung parliament.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage yesterday said he was ‘seriously considering’ a return to frontline politics after a survey, by Survation, suggested he could well win a seat when Britain goes to the polls.

According to The Telegraph, every Red Wall seat won from Labour by Boris Johnson in 2019 will be lost and the Scottish National Party is predicted to lose almost half of its seat to Labour - keeping only 25.

The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, which is more than Sir John Major lost in 1997.

The YouGov pol will be looked at closely by Conservative MPs who believe that a change of leader might be the only way to avoid disaster at the general election.

It was commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance and carried out by YouGov.

If the poll is to be believed, the election result would be the biggest collapse in support of a governing party since 1906.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...1f3b73f9&ei=21

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

The Labour Party would need a record swing in votes at the next general election to win a majority in the House of Commons, according to analysis of the new electoral map.

The next election will be fought on new constituency boundaries, redrawn to reflect population changes and to try to even out voter numbers in each area.

An analysis of these changes for BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association suggests Labour needs a national swing of 12.7% to win with just a small majority.

That's considerably higher than the 10.2% achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and higher even than the 12% achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945.

The swing from the Conservatives to Labour would need to be uniform, to follow the same pattern everywhere, with other parties seeing no change in performance since 2019.

In practice, the picture will be more complicated, so this is a rough guide. But a uniform national swing has been a reliable model for general elections in the UK over a long period of time.

[Jimbuna]

MPs are continuing to debate the government's plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda - and deter Channel crossings - ahead of a crucial vote later.

Downing Street says it's "confident" the bill will pass at its third and final reading this evening, despite a major rebellion on Tuesday.

Two Conservative deputy chairmen quit their roles to join about 60 Tory MPs backing an amendment toughening the legislation.

If the bill does pass - as is expected - it will next go to the House of Lords which can suggest amendments.

Earlier, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer clashed over the bill at Prime Minister's Questions, with the Labour leader saying Tuesday's rebellion had left the PM "brutally exposed"

Meanwhile, the president of Rwanda tells the BBC he will return UK taxpayers' money if no asylum seekers arrive - but any challenges the bill faces are the "UK's problem"

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Meanwhile, the president of Rwanda tells the BBC he will return UK taxpayers' money if no asylum seekers arrive - but any challenges the bill faces are the "UK's problem"

So IRL he says I keep the money and if you in the UK have problems with that you have to pay more.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Dargo

So IRL he says I keep the money and if you in the UK have problems with that you have to pay more.

Nothing would surprise me where todays politicians are concerned

[Jimbuna]

Humza Yousaf: I've never been comfortable with 'national' in SNP name

SNP leader Humza Yousaf has said he has "never been comfortable" with having "national" in his party's name.

Appearing on the BBC's Political Thinking podcast, Yousaf was asked about the associations with the word 'nationalism'.

The first minister said the SNP's name could be "misinterpreted" by others.

Host Nick Robinson said: "Here in Scotland, the idea of being a nationalist is not a phrase that often people in the SNP like, but it's something of pride. It's pride in identity and pride in country. It's a belief in self-government, escaping from being ruled from outside. And yet in most of the parts of the world nationalism is often seen in a very different way as kind of hostile to others, aggressive."

Yousaf responded: "I've never really been comfortable with the fact that we have national in our party's name, not because I think the founding members of the SNP had any far-right inclination - they certainly didn't - or a nationalist inclination, the way that you express it there, but because it can be misinterpreted.

"But we are the Scottish National Party - we have a very strong brand, a very strong identity.

"We've worked really hard to make it really clear. It is now well understood that we're a civic national party, we're a party that believes it doesn't matter really where you come from, what's important is where are we going together, and there's no doubt about our politics being very rooted in the left and the centre left of our political discourse."
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,h...al-in-snp-name

[Moonlight]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Humza Yousaf: I've never been comfortable with 'national' in SNP name

It's a much better word than "Terrorist", isn't it Yousaf.

[Jimbuna]

I suspect this woman is wasting her breath. Rishi simply isn't interested.

Woman challenges Rishi Sunak over state of the NHS

Rishi Sunak has been challenged about the state of the NHS in an awkward encounter with a woman during a visit to Winchester in the south of England.

In a clip filmed by Sky News, a member of the public urged Mr Sunak to take the NHS "back to how it used to be".

He began to walk away as she told him her daughter spent "seven hours waiting".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it showed the PM didn't "understand what so many people are going through".

In the exchange, Mr Sunak said he was "sorry to hear" about the woman's problems and defended his government's actions on the NHS.

He said waiting lists had fallen in October and November of last year - two months when there were "virtually no strikes".

"It just shows when there aren't strikes we really can make progress. We didn't last year because of all the strikes."

The disgruntled woman - reported by Sky News to be a former NHS worker - replied that Mr Sunak could "stop it all". She also pleaded with him not to relocate Winchester's accident and emergency department to Basingstoke.

Under plans announced last year, the accident and emergency department in Winchester is set to be closed, with a new acute specialist hospital, costing £900m, to be built in Basingstoke.

At one point Mr Sunak laughs at a comment from the crowd and the exchange ends with the pair shaking hands.

Mr Sunak continues his tour of Winchester, a seat the Conservatives hold, but with a tiny majority over the Lib Dems.

Responding to the clip, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it "further reinforces I think what many people across the country think - that this prime minister doesn't talk to people, doesn't engage, doesn't understand, what so many people are going through".

He added: "We have a terrible problem with our waiting lists and that is why we have been really clear that we would get rid of the non-dom tax status where the super-rich don't pay their tax in this country and use that to bring down those waiting lists.

"We have got a plan, we engage with people over our plan, we don't laugh and walk away."

Liberal Democrat MP Christine Jardine said: "Out of touch does not even begin to describe Rishi Sunak's attitude to the NHS".

At the start of 2023, Mr Sunak made cutting NHS waiting lists in England one of his five key priorities.

The overall number of waits for non-emergency treatment in England was 7.6 million in November. This represented a fall from October of about 96,000, but around 400,000 higher than it was at the start of 2023.

Mr Sunak has previously argued that he could have met his target if NHS workers had not gone on strike.

The Health Foundation think tank has said that industrial action by consultants and junior doctors only lengthened the waiting list by around 210,000.

Last week, the BBC reported that most key NHS had been missed for at least seven years across the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68032002

[Otto Harkaman]

Britain must prepare for war. America won’t save us this time

The first important premise to understand about these warnings, and Admiral Bauer’s in particular, is that the threat to Nato is no longer a shared threat independent of geography. As the centre of gravity within Washington decision-making shifts decisively eastward to counter China in a longer-term struggle in the Indo-Pacific, the mood music coming out of Washington is that Europe should be able to look after its own security affairs, with minimal assistance from the US. Given the scale difference between Russia and China, and that the collective economies of European Nato are well in excess of four times that of Russia’s, this is not an unreasonable position to take.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-us-this-time/

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

I appreciate the increase is minimal but the principal in itself reeks of Tory favouritism.

Rishi Sunak's hike on flights will impact Brits' holidays - but not private jets

Average Brits who can't afford private jet travel will fork out more to go away on holidays under new tax plans.

Known chartered jet enthusiast Rishi Sunak will oversee a rise in domestic Air Passenger Duty which will impact the price of plane tickets for those jetting away on normal airlines. At the same time, the Government will freeze tax paid on private jet flights.

Passengers travelling by economy will see the tax added to the cost of their fare raised from £6.50 to £7 under plans announced in last year's Budget due to come into effect from April. Travellers using premium economy or business class flights will see the duty increase from £13 to £14. Tax for private jets remains frozen at £78.
A Treasury document setting out the policy said: "This measure will impact on some individuals who travel by air, who may see an increase in air fares."

Given how slim the margins are when it comes to air fares - with Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary admitting that some of his airline's flights cost less than the tax levied on them - even a small rate change is likely to be felt by customers.

If all of the duty change is passed on to passengers, then a family of four will pay £56 in tax on a return domestic plane trip. The increase this year comes after the government slashed domestic air duty in half in a bid to get more Brits flying domestically, despite the fact the form of transport is as much as 14 times more polluting than going by train.

The freezing of duty for private jets will make life just that little bit easier for those who use the mode of transport, which is one of if not the most environmentally damaging ways to travel. Inflation has been as high as 8% annually during 2023, meaning the well-heeled private jet users are several pounds better off than they would be if tax kept up with inflation.

The Prime Minister has faced scrutiny over his private jet use since he started running the Government. Mr Sunak took £500,000 worth of private jet trips in less than a fortnight in 2022, official data show.

He has also come under fire from climate campaigners and opposition MPs for taking a trip by helicopter to Dover, which would have taken just over an hour by train, and another helicopter ride to Southampton, which would come in at one hour 14 minutes by rail. Helicopter rates were also frozen in the latest tax plans.

An HM Treasury spokesperson said: "We are absolutely committed to delivering on our net-zero commitments. That’s why private jets will be excluded from the domestic Air Passenger duty (APD) cut and a new ultra-long haul is being introduced to ensure that those who fly furthest contribute the most. Charging APD on helicopters runs the risk of incentivising the use of lighter aircraft that wouldn’t be as safe in harsh environments and some use aviation gasoline, which already incurs fuel duty.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/new...42ca2ad4&ei=15

[Jimbuna]

This worries me because I'm fresh out of new ideas and I've exhausted current financial allowances.

What to do now to shield your money from Labour

With a general election pencilled in for the autumn, Labour’s charm offensive on tax has cranked into overdrive.

Speaking in Davos this week, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves hinted at tax cuts for top earners as she tried to recast Labour as the party of growth.

Lowering taxes on “working people” remains a priority, she said, including those paying the highest 45p rate.

A multi-year campaign of Tory stealth taxes means Britons are buckling under the heaviest tax burden since the 1940s.

Yet despite Ms Reeves comforting words the pain could be about to get worse.

Labour insists it has “no plans” to increase rates of income tax, or to introduce a wealth tax. But plans change, and the party’s proposals to add levies to private schools, reimpose limits on pension savings and scrap “non-dom” status are fueling fears of wider tax hikes.
Many middle-class Britons are worried about what a Labour government would mean for their money and are rearranging their financial affairs accordingly.

Sitting back and banking on an electoral upset is becoming a worse idea by the day. The most extensive YouGov polling for half a decade predicts a Tory wipeout in the Commons, cut down to just 169 seats to Labour’s 385.

“The question isn’t whether Labour will get in, but what they’re going to change when they do,” says David Lesperance, founder and head of international tax advice firm Lesperance & Associates.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...3af27faf&ei=14