Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ I know there isn't any F-16 or volunteers flying them.

From the article it also said that Zelenskyy only need to call and he, the American pilot, would come when they got these F-16.

2 years I thought it would take lesser then these 2 years

Markus

We do not have the planes ready as of now they need to be out of operational service than made ready to send them this can not be done in months this is not meant to be used in this offensive like a lot of Ukraine support that is promised this year. Like Russia, we have it but that not say it is operational at the moment, and we are not giving operational material in case of...

[ET2SN]

Marcus, it still takes 10-15 hours of ground maintenance for each hour in the air. Don't focus on the pilots, focus on the ground crews and the repair parts. The ground crews will need a lot of training while they are currently fighting a war.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Marcus, it still takes 10-15 hours of ground maintenance for each hour in the air. Don't focus on the pilots, focus on the ground crews and the repair parts. The ground crews will need a lot of training while they are currently fighting a war.

You're right I forgot all about the ground crew and the ammo that comes with these fighter jets.

Markus

[Skybird]

https://www-fr-de.translate.goog/pol..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Before the start of the Ukraine war, the U.S. was producing 14,500 artillery rounds per month, while EU production was at a roughly comparable level. U.S. production has already been increased to 20,000 rounds per month since the war began, and investments have also been made to expand capacity to reach 90,000 rounds per month, the report added. By comparison, the Ukrainian army fired 180,000 artillery rounds per month last year and currently consumes about 90,000 to 140,000 rounds per month, according to Watling, an expert.

Russia itself increased its defense spending by 282 percent in January and February of this year compared to the same period in 2021, according to its own data, and Moscow now produces 2.5 million artillery shells per year, up from 1.7 million before the war. "Russia has the ability to mobilize its own economy to support its armed forces and control its own destiny in a way that Ukraine cannot," former Gen. Barrons said. "The critical weakness" of Ukraine "is its dependence on Western goods and industry."
(...)
"You don't have to be much of a military analyst to realize that European countries that are making major investments in artillery production 13 months into the war are a little late to the game," Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, acknowledged to the U.S. newspaper.

So far the US, Norway, the UK and France have placed significant new orders for ammo and new material. Germany still has not (only very minor almost alibi orders), and is still busy with itself. Nor have the other NATO members. Bubble-Olaf recently said one should maintain the briodges to the "other Russia". Read between the lines and you know where he wants the journey to head.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Marcus, it still takes 10-15 hours of ground maintenance for each hour in the air. Don't focus on the pilots, focus on the ground crews and the repair parts. The ground crews will need a lot of training while they are currently fighting a war.

In 2013, the Dutch defense minister decided on further reductions: of the 68 remaining aircraft, only 61 would be counted as operational; the rest would henceforth count as logistics reserves. The aircraft would retain their registration and could be deployed, if necessary. One of the goals of this decision was to reduce the number of flight hours per F-16 aircraft that the aircraft would exhibit. Thus, it was hoped to reduce the maintenance costs of this aging aircraft. With 68 aircraft, the air force would perform the work of 61 aircraft. The F-16 was going to fly 'part-time'. These F-!6 planes are harder to maintain/fly than the Mig-29, also they will not be the game changer in this war.

[ET2SN]

Long-term, I think the F-16 is right for Ukraine.

The problem is that right now is a lot more important.

[Skybird]

A decisive factor will be how many Vipers Ukraine actually gets - not before end of this year. I already said last winter I could not imagine them to get fighters in 2023, not before very late in 2023 at least.


Training pilots on them might be the smaller problem. Training the maintenance crews and establishing the complex logistics network for them - that is the real challenge, me thinks. However, I am quite confident the Ukrainians will master this challenge, too. Thats why I, for a change, agree with the german government that the Germans will not deliver fighters, because we only have the Eurofighter (and not even in excessive numbers), and that would mean to double the logistics trouble for Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 202,430 people (+670 per day), 3,781 tanks, 3,229 artillery systems, 7,382 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

As of the morning of 20 May 2023, the losses of the Russian occupiers are approximately 202,430 people.

tanks - 3781 (+4) units,

armoured combat vehicles - 7382 (+5) units,

artillery systems - 3,229 (+19) units,

MLRS - 564 (+0) units,

air defence systems - 325 (+6) units,

aircraft - 308 (+0) units,

helicopters - 294 (+0) units,

Operational and tactical UAVs - 2801 (+32),

cruise missiles - 1011 (+0),

ships/boats - 18 (+0) units,

motor vehicles and tankers - 6103 (+20) units,

special equipment - 423 (+4). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3419592

[Skybird]

It gets reported that Russia moves "massive" reinforcements to Bakhmut.


Maybe that means that things are working the way Ukraine planned them to be. These troops obviously must come for somewhre - somewhere where they now are missing.



Russia floods fields in the vicinity of Saporischschja.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

A decisive factor will be how many Vipers Ukraine actually gets - not before end of this year. I already said last winter I could not imagine them to get fighters in 2023, not before very late in 2023 at least.


Training pilots on them might be the smaller problem. Training the maintenance crews and establishing the complex logistics network for them - that is the real challenge, me thinks. However, I am quite confident the Ukrainians will master this challenge, too. Thats why I, for a change, agree with the german government that the Germans will not deliver fighters, because we only have the Eurofighter (and not even in excessive numbers), and that would mean to double the logistics trouble for Ukraine.

In March, two Ukrainian pilots were tested at a US airbase in Arizona for three weeks to see how the retraining to use fighter aircraft unknown to them would go. From this, the conclusion would have been that they should be able to fly an F-16 within six months AND use it in war situations, Ukrainian air force commander Serhii Holubtsov said in late March. Although several countries have already offered to train Ukrainian pilots for the F-16, including the Netherlands, Poland and Belgium, as far as we know those trainings have not yet started anywhere. Initially, the Pentagon assumed that such training could take a year and a half.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

It gets reported that Russia moves "massive" reinforcements to Bakhmut.


Maybe that means that things are working the way Ukraine planned them to be. These troops obviously must come for somewhre - somewhere where they now are missing.



Russia floods fields in the vicinity of Saporischschja.

The British Armed Forces believe Russia has sent reinforcements to Bakhmut. The Ministry of Defense says the country has "most likely sent several battalions" over the past four days. A battalion consists of hundreds to a thousand soldiers.

According to the UK, reinforcements were sent after the Ukrainian military made some progress around Bakhmut. Moreover, there would be doubts whether the Wagner Group mercenaries would continue to fight. Wagner's boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has said in recent days that there is heavy fighting, and it is difficult to take control of the town. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar also spoke of heavy fighting on Friday.

If Russia has indeed sent reinforcements to the city, the British say this shows that Bakhmut is still very important to Moscow. Indeed, just about all Russian military personnel in Ukraine would be needed elsewhere. The capture of Bakhmut would, according to the UK, "allow the Russians to speak of some degree of success in this conflict".

Ukraine's 46th Air Mobile Brigade writes on Telegram that the fall of Bakhmut is imminent. "Today or tomorrow (in principle, the moment is not important) they (the Russians, ed.) will occupy the territory of the city, or rather its ruins." The army unit stresses that that is not the end of the war. "Immediately afterward, they will have to deal with new defenses outside the city and problems on their flanks."

The 46th Air Mobile Brigade is one of the last units defending Ukrainian territory in the town of Bakhmut. The Russian army has been trying to take the town for almost a year, and has now almost completely taken control of it. Over the past week, Ukraine has carried out several successful counterattacks in the Bakhmut area. In response, Russia reportedly sent several battalions to the town for a quick victory.

However, how long it will take for Bakhmut to fall is hard to say. Military bloggers on the hand of mercenary army Wagner, which plays a major role in the Russian side's offensive, claimed yesterday that the city had been taken. The mercenaries' official Telegram account claimed that the Ukrainians still control only 600 square meters of the city

But according to the authoritative think tank Institute for the Study of War, there are "no indications that Ukrainian forces are carrying out a controlled withdrawal from their remaining positions in the city, or that Wagner's attacks threaten to take all remaining Ukrainian positions in the short term."

[mapuc]

What's even more important:

Bakhmut is not of any strategic value-Said by a military expert on Swedish tv some month ago.

When He said those words I recalled what Tom Clancy wrote in his war thriller "Red Storm Rising"

(From memory)
When a war starts none of the combatant knows where the main battle will be.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

What's even more important:

Bakhmut is not of any strategic value-Said by a military expert on Swedish tv some month ago.

When He said those words I recalled what Tom Clancy wrote in his war thriller "Red Storm Rising"

(From memory)
When a war starts none of the combatant knows where the main battle will be.

Markus

Bakhmut has become important, it has only for Ukraine it could destroy Russian offensive, usable reserves and gave Ukraine the time to buildup 20 brigades. The troops are outfitted with some of the best gear Ukraine has been provided. Kyiv has been holding some 20 brigades back from the fighting and training them to break through Russian lines and hold any ground taken. The hope in Kyiv is that when its offensive begins, Russian forces will be depleted from their assault on Bakhmut, while tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops will be fresh and well-equipped with Western battle tanks and other material. https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine..._copyURL_share

[Dargo]

Five questions on what Ukraine wants to do with Western F-16s

The West's delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine seems imminent. The United States has already given the green light to train the pilots, and several European countries want to supply the aircraft. According to Russia, this puts the West at "colossal risk". How should these words be interpreted, and what does this mean for the course of the war?

What about the deliveries?
US security adviser Jake Sullivan said today that the US is consulting with its allies on when F-16s will be delivered to Ukraine. At a press briefing following a consultation between G7 countries in Japan, he responded to questions from journalists about President Biden's decision to allow Ukrainian pilots to train with US fighter jets. "As the training unfolds in the coming months, we will work with our allies to determine when aircraft will be delivered, who will deliver them and how many," Sullivan said.

The US approval of F-16 training weighs heavily within the debate over the delivery of the aircraft to Ukraine. A growing group of European countries, including the Netherlands and the UK, are sympathetic to such deliveries, but it cannot happen without US permission. With the training of Ukrainian pilots, that permission seems very close. "Otherwise, this training also makes little sense," says professor of war studies Frans Osinga. "Ukraine is also said to have already earmarked pilots to form two to four squadrons." This would then involve dozens of aircraft.

If it really comes to delivery, when can the devices be deployed?
Training a pilot does still take time, Osinga said. "The Pentagon released a report earlier that a pilot should be able to deploy an F-16 meaningfully within four months. That is, the aircraft can be piloted and deployed as a weapon system." In addition, training is needed for logistics and maintenance, Osinga says. "A lot of time goes into that, too. Estimates range from four to six months, but Ukraine has shown itself to master new systems quickly." So the F-16s cannot be used for a quick Ukrainian offensive. "This is a long-term addition to the armory," says Osinga. "But then again, the war is not over in the coming months."

How important are the planes to Ukraine?
The aircraft are especially important to provide support to ground troops, says former Netherlands Army Commander Mart de Kruif. "You have to give the troops on the ground the freedom to act. So that they can move forward without being afraid of attacks from Russian aircraft." Osinga says the same. "The F-16s should therefore also be seen as an additional weapon for air defense. If Ukraine has F-16s, it is not a game changer. The F-16 has better radar and longer range than the Sukhoi and MiG aircraft Ukraine has now. Another nice touch is that there are plenty of spare parts available, and manufacturer Lockheed Martin is still making new aircraft."

If the F-16s are equipped with air missiles, they could potentially shoot down Russian aircraft and keep them away from the front, Osinga said. Russia is bombarding Ukraine with cruise missiles and drones. While these are often intercepted, Ukraine does fear running out of its stock of anti-aircraft artillery. "F-16s can play a role in that," the professor explained. "Zelensky also said earlier: 'Give me wings for freedom'."

How many aircraft does the Netherlands have, and can we just do without them?
Of the 213 F-16s the Netherlands had in the early 1990s, 42 remain today. Of those 42, the Netherlands has 24 in active service. The remaining 18 are in hangars. According to De Kruif, it remains to be seen how many of those 18 aircraft are good enough to be used. "It may be that parts are missing or that they need to be repaired. That also takes time, so the aircraft cannot be delivered in the short term anyway."

In addition, the number of aircraft to be delivered also depends on how many more F-35 aircraft the Netherlands receives in the coming years. The intention is that these Joint Strike Fighters will all replace the current F-16s. And the possible delivery of F-16 is done in a coalition with Denmark, Belgium and the UK. In total, those countries together with the Netherlands could supply dozens of aircraft, according to De Kruijf. But how many will be for the Netherlands' account is not clear.

How does Russia respond?
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Groeshko called the possible delivery of the fighter jets "a colossal risk" for Western countries, Russian state news agency Tass reported. "We see that Western countries are still clinging to the escalation scenario. This leads to huge risks," Groeshko said. "In any case, this is taken into account in all our plans, and we have all the means at our disposal to achieve the set goals."

According to Osinga, those words need not instill fear. "Every time a delivery of a weapon system has been announced, Russia has played this rhetorical card. But every time it has led to no escalation. What could Russia escalate now? The country deliberately avoids direct confrontation with NATO, it already has enough problems with Ukraine itself."

https://nos.nl/artikel/2475795-vijf-...-16-s-wil-doen