Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Crucial to Ukraine's spring offensive is supplies - and they are fragile

Ukraine claims preparations for its major spring offensive are almost complete. But how do you get large quantities of shells and bullets, as well as toilet paper and food, to an army of tens of thousands of soldiers?

The latest US arms package for Kyiv, presented on Wednesday, shows how, on the eve of the long-awaited offensive, the US is still trying to quickly beef up the Ukrainian army. Cost: $300 million, bringing the tally of US arms support since the invasion to almost $36 billion. Besides thousands of artillery shells, anti-tank weapons and mortars, the list also includes trucks and trailers to transport heavy military equipment. Spare parts to keep tanks and armored cars running are also going to Ukraine, as are explosives to blow up Russian obstacles on the front line later. All weapons, equipment and parts will soon have to find their way to the 12 combat brigades being readied. And if the Ukrainians advance with their Leopard tanks and Bradley armored vehicles and manage to penetrate a weak spot in the Russian defense line, the attack must also be able to continue uninterrupted. Supply is then crucial: after all, without shells capable of piercing armor, the high-tech Leopards, which must destroy the Russian T-72s from miles away, will soon be of no value.

'The logistical plan behind an attack plan is just as important,' emphasizes Lieutenant General b.d. Hans van Griensven, 2007 commander of the Dutch military in the Afghan province of Uruzgan. 'Without good logistics, you can't fight. So that has to be tightly organized and planned, from the supply of fuel and weapons to food for the soldiers. What does a unit need per day? And how do you make sure they get it while the war goes on?' The 12 combat brigades arming Ukraine and the West for the offensive total some 50 thousand soldiers strong. While supplying such a large army force is normally already a tough job, it is extra difficult for the Ukrainian generals. Because before the invasion, the army's armament consisted mainly of Soviet-made weaponry. Then Kyiv had to integrate a stream of Western weapons into the armed forces. Artillery units that had the Russian Pion howitzer, for example, also had to shoot with the various howitzers supplied by the West: from the American M777 and the Polish Crab to the French Caesar. To make matters worse, the Western and Russian guns also used grenades of a different caliber.

As a result, logistics specialists have to get both 152mm and 155mm shells to artillerymen. The same logistical nightmare applies to another commonly used weapon: anti-tank weapons. Ukraine received tens of thousands of anti-tank weapons of US, British, French and Swedish manufacture, among others. Later during the offensive, how do you manage to ensure that soldiers shooting with the US Javelin are supplied in time with the advanced HEAT missile? 'A combat unit is basically independent for 24 to 48 hours,' says Van Griensven. 'After that, they will have to be resupplied. Behind the lines, trucks have to transport the weapons to a certain point, after which armored vehicles take over transport to the front line. So you have to plan that well. And it has to be done in secret. It is obvious that the Russians are trying to hit those logistical lines of Ukraine.'

One problem for Ukraine is that they cannot supply combat troops by air with helicopters, for example, because of the danger of Russian air defenses. Van Griensven experienced in Uruzgan that the supply of Dutch troops was frustrated by the Taliban. Fighters stopped large convoys, which meant fuel in particular had to be rationed. Water supplies were also endangered. Van Griensven: 'By air, with helicopters, we had to try to solve the supply problems. But that was also dangerous in Afghanistan, because helicopters were vulnerable to attacks from the ground. For a commander, supply is always a big concern. It is an ongoing process that is very fragile.' Conversely, the Russians also have to worry about the vulnerability of their supplies. Van Griensven points out that by choosing to launch an offensive in the south, the Ukrainians could hit the invasion force hard. Closing off Crimea, used to supply Russian units, could cut off the supply of weapons and fuel, among other things.

He also points out the importance of deception. Van Griensven: "Where the Ukrainian brigades are located is also important. You can mislead the Russians about this and then strike somewhere else. The trick is to find a place where you can break through their lines. Then you can pace quickly. Then you get into the enemy's back. No army wants that.' https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-ach...baar~b79f2d2f/

[Skybird]

Kremlin gang tries to boost Russification in occupied territories.

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-forces-...hip/a-65522524


Five Russian warships and two supply ships have entered British coastal waters to "attend" coronation festivities.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/222443...able-missiles/

[Skybird]

Himars' teeth are not as sharp anymore as last year.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/p...ine/index.html

Before the war Russia was traditionally seen to be extremely strong in electronic jamming and communication intercepting. Some days ago I red that Ukrainoan front troops therefore now use WW1-style field telephones with direct cable connection and a crank.

[Skybird]

https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/es-ist...&_x_tr_sl=auto


Alexandra Prokopenko has frequent articles at "The Bell", I knew these aleady before the interview in the NZZ. I recommend the read, she knows the stuff and has the perspective of a former insider. No Western wishful thinking, but sober assessment.



https://en.thebell.io/author/alexandra/

Alexandra Prokopenko's weekly newsletters from the online medium The Bell have become essential reading for people who want to be kept up to date on the Russian economy. One notices that the 37-year-old Prokopenko was a journalist in her previous life, for the news agency Tass and the former leading business newspaper "Vedomosti". From 2017 to 2022 she worked as a consultant at the Central Bank of Russia and the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. Prokopenko, a Russian citizen with Ukrainian roots, left Russia after the major invasion. Since then she has been in demand as a Russia expert in the West. In February she became a visiting fellow at the German Society for Foreign Relations.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

https://www.ft.com/content/404af8ef-...5-384442864342

[Reece]

Have to be a member to view it sky!!

[Skybird]

Really? I am no member there, and got access to the site via a link a German newspaper article.


It says that Bill Clinto was approached by Putin in 2011 and that Putin said he did not like the deal done "security guarantees for Ukraine for giving up the nukies", and that Putin clealry told Clinton that he felt not bound by the deal signed by Yeltzin. Clinton said that from that conversation with Putin on it was clear to him that a Russian attack on Ukraine only were a question of time. The meeting took place three years before the Russians went after Crimea.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Reece

Have to be a member to view it sky!!

Use https://archive.ph/ and paste the FT url post

[Jimbuna]

Pick your friends and who you support wisely.

Akey Putin war ideologist was "seriously wounded" today by a suspected car bomb. Writer Zakhar Prilepin, 47, was left fighting for his life after his driver was killed, say reports. The incident involving his Audi Q7 car took place near the city of Nizhny Novgorod in Russia. Unconfirmed reports have suggested his leg was blown off in the explosion.

He was described as "conscious" and receiving medical assistance at the scene.

Prilepen, a pro-Kremlin novelist turned politician who joined fighters in the war, was evidently attacked after a visit to the Donbas - Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.

There are suggestions his car was tailed. The explosion was just 100 metres from where his daughter had been dropped off with relatives, said one report.

‌The dead driver was said to be a Ukrainian citizen.

An explosive device had been fixed under the vehicle, said reports. He is a strong supporter of the Z-slogan used by Putin's war backers.

‌Shot media reported: "Zakhar Prilepin is conscious. He says he doesn't understand what happened. Now the victim is being loaded into an ambulance, our source reports.

‌"The Audi exploded near the town of Bor. The wreckage from the car scattered over 50 metres."

‌A helicopter was on standby to fly him to hospital. A day earlier he had offered his support to the Wagner private army.

The Russian foreign ministry immediately blamed the West for the attack. "The direct responsibility of the United States and Britain. We pray for Zakhar," said spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

‌The attack resembles a car bombing which killed pro-Putin activist Darya Dugina, 29, in August last year.

There was speculation the bomb was aimed at her father Alexander Dugin, an ultranationalist philosopher known as 'Putin's Rasputin'.

The ATESH movement has been hunting for Prilepin since the beginning of the year, according to reports.‌
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...1f145054&ei=20

[Catfish]

Sone explicit content bx Wagner boss Prigozhin. I wonder what he is up to.
Concern for his own men dying? Hardly. Playing som role to make himself liked by the people maybe.
Should stay away from windows.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1654268174018260992

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Sone explicit content bx Wagner boss Prigozhin. I wonder what he is up to.
Concern for his own men dying? Hardly. Playing som role to make himself liked by the people maybe.
Should stay away from windows.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1654268174018260992

It's should not be the first time he has come up with similar threats about withdraw his troops from Bakhmut and not doing it after all.

It has to be seen before I believe it.

Markus

[Catfish]

It is said Kadyrov will replace the Wagner mercenaries, may well be. Or both will continue to fight. Or whatever. Of course nothing is certain if posted by any of those.
Whatever, Prigozhin and Kadyrov seem to suffer from post traumatic stress disorder.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1654552680101031940

[Skybird]

Its written in some media that Prigoshin overstepped a red line by becoming quite explict und perosonal in his last rant. Possible that there is no way back now. Its said he fights a personal feud with Shoigu, and Shoigu using his power to starve this one rival for power to death so to speak.

Thats the charm with the Russians. Many factions, and none of them really work together but all work against each other. A game of thrones.