Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Ostfriese]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russians abandon wartime Russia in historic exodus
As Russian troops stormed into Ukraine last February, sending millions of Ukrainians fleeing for their lives, thousands of Russians also raced to pack their bags and leave home, fearing the Kremlin would shut the borders and impose martial law.

Some had long opposed rising authoritarianism, and the invasion was a last straw. Others were driven by economic interest, to preserve livelihoods or escape the bite of sanctions. Then, last autumn, a military mobilization spurred hundreds of thousands of men to run.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has set off a historic exodus of his own people. Initial data shows that at least 500,000, and perhaps nearly 1 million, have left in the year since the invasion began — a tidal wave on scale with emigration following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...a-war-ukraine/

Most of those are men (like you already said), they are usually rather young (the vast majority in their early twenties) and usually with an above-average education.

A lot of them are, however, stuck in neighboring countries (especially Georgia), as their Russian passport doesn't leave them with many options.

[mapuc]

In the latest couple of days I have on some occasions read things like.

Ukraine is using chemical weapons against Russian troops.

I can't find any official on this matter.

I can however find things about Russians use of chemical weapons - phosphorus bombs.

Markus

[tonschk]

Very Very Good News Putin’s Army storms Bakhmut, Vuhledar; Russian Howitzers destroy Ukraine hideouts

[Skybird]

Know thy enemy.

This is on Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russian top military leader, written for the Neue Zürcher Zeitung by Sergej Gerasimov (no, they are not related, they only share a quite common name).


Of the war diaries written after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, those of Sergei Vladimirovich Gerasimov are among the most stirring and moving. They combine powers of observation and knowledge of human nature, empathy and imagination, a sense of the absurd and probing intelligence. Gerasimov was born in Kharkiv in 1964. He studied psychology and later wrote a psychology textbook for schools and scientific articles on cognitive activities. His literary ambitions have been for science fiction and poetry. Gerasimov and his wife live in the center of Kharkiv in an apartment on the third floor of a high-rise building. The NZZ published "Notes from the War" in the course of spring 71 and summer 69. The first part is now available in collected form under the title "Fire Panorama" as a book from DTV. The author certainly does not run out of material. - Here is the 117th contribution of the third part.
-------------------------------

Butchers who can hardly spell can be read like an open book. But General Gerasimov differs from them

Sergei Gerasimov holds out in Kharkiv. In his war diary, the Ukrainian writer reports on the terrible, even absurd everyday life in a city that is still being shelled.

Today is Friday the thirteenth, and it is not surprising that most of the news is bad. In our friend's family, an old woman fell and broke her hip. Our space heaters are cold again. Outside it reads five degrees below zero. Inside, the cold is gradually becoming an ordeal. I slept with a warm hat and four sweaters and dreamed of the fifth.

But it could have been much worse if the Russians had damaged the heat distribution system a week earlier, when the temperature had dropped to minus seventeen degrees at night, not to mention the strong wind that was going. Then the heating pipes would have burst, and we would have had to do without central heating until spring.

Another bad thing going on is that Putin has replaced one commander of his "special operation" with another. A butcher whose IQ was so low he could barely read had to make way for Valery Gerasimov, my namesake, of whom there are a couple of books on war theory and who invented hybrid war and much more.

Valery Saluzhni, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said in one of his interviews that he had read everything Gerasimov had written. That is, the Ukrainian general knows all the strategies and plans that the Russian general can ever invent. Since we know our enemy as well as we know ourselves, we will surely win.

On the other hand, it makes me feel a certain moral discomfort when a namesake of mine leads the campaign against my country. It's almost like if someone living in Ukraine had the last name Putin. He would have to explain all day long that he is not related to the notorious tyrant and well-known murderer. Some people would believe him, but others would not.

It is somewhat reassuring that Valery Gerasimov, the current commander of the united Russian forces in the military "special operation" against Ukraine, was born in Kazan, Tatarstan. Of my family, many generations lived in Ukraine, so there is no way Valery can be related to me.

Each of Putin's chief commanders invented his own dirty trick to better torture Ukrainians. One of them waited for the darkest hour of the night and then had heavy S-300 missiles fired at Kharkiv, hitting our street and leaving big craters with nice regularity. Another showered us with philanthropic "missiles of goodness" that deprived us of water, heating, telephone service and electricity.

All these guys were predictable. Butchers who can barely spell can be read like an open book. Valery Gerasimov, however, is different from them.

Valery Gerasimov is neither a thief nor a corrupt official, for his real estate has only a tenth of the value of the estates of the families of other leading officials of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Unlike his fellow generals, he enjoyed reading as a child. His favorite author was Konstantin Simonov, a talented Russian writer who wrote exclusively about war. I, too, have six heavy black volumes by Simonov on my bookshelf, but have never opened them. Simonov is too Soviet for my taste.

"Information warfare opens up far-reaching asymmetric possibilities for reducing the enemy's combat potential," Gerasimov says. "Frontal clashes of large armies," it continues, "are a thing of the past and are being replaced by noncontact long-range impact on the enemy, the use of special operations forces as well as internal opposition, and informational influence."

So Gerasimov remains predictable, too. Because that is what we will see in the next phase of the war: Special operations, espionage activities, diversionary tactics, and manipulation of our minds and hearts. Of course, General Gerasimov will continue to shower Kharkiv with S-300s, Uragan and "missiles of goodness." Useful traditions must be cherished.

Another bad thing happened today: The Russians took control of the salt mining town of Soledar. They did it with great losses, bodies of killed and frozen Russian soldiers piled up, but they did it. Soledar no longer exists as a town, and almost all the territory around it is occupied.

Some of the salt mines in Soledar used to be tourist attractions. There was an underground salt church with a forty-meter-high dome and a miraculous salt Madonna that appeared on the wall by itself, a salt recreation park with a soccer field and a volleyball court, and a huge salt sandbox for children with plastic toys in it.

On the walls were "salt boobs," round shapes left over when the salt mining machines finished their work. They actually resemble doorknobs, but the male eye naturally recognizes female breasts in them. Furthermore, there was a 270 million year old tree, preserved in salt. And then there was the salt on which the wide world fed for 45 years and whose stock ensured Ukraine 8000 years of supply.

In 2014, Russia was not able to conquer Soledar with its 200 kilometers of widely branching underground salt passages. But if the maps do not lie, the Russian army managed to do so today, Friday the thirteenth.
----------------------------------------

[tonschk]

We Are Being Lied To About The War In Ukraine

https://londonreal.tv/james-rickards...lobal-economy/

[Skybird]

According to a report in Die Welt, Denmark and the Netherlands do not want to supply Leopard-2 tanks after all. Meanwhile, Germany is accusing Poland of also putting the brakes on the delivery of Leopard-2 tanks. German Defense Minister Pistorius complains that planning with the Poles "is not going smoothly." Previously, Spain had already withdrawn from its former delivery plans months ago. One wanted to train 55 Ukrainians on the Leopard-2, however. But deliver nothing.
After all, Norway has agreed to deliver 8 tanks. It is clear to me that they can't deliver that much, they are a small army.

But with all due respect, these are not the total numbers that are needed. These numbers are just an alibi.
--------------------------------


Tagesspiegel:
The head of the Russian mercenary force Wagner has admitted for the first time to founding a notorious "troll factory." He "created and led for a long time" the Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg, Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin told the online service Telegram on Tuesday. The agency's task, he said, was to protect Russia from the "aggressive propaganda of the West's anti-Russian theses."


Well, the forum seems to have such a troll on board.
---------------------------------


Unpleasant but to be expected after the American Congress election:
According to the "Washington Post," the U.S. is increasing pressure on Ukraine to show success. U.S. officials have told the Ukrainian government that it is facing a critical point in the war against Russia, the newspaper writes.

Despite promises to support Ukraine "for as long as necessary," the latest aid package from Congress and U.S. allies represented Kiev's best chance to turn events on the battlefield in its favor.

In a recent package, the U.S. had pledged more than $2 billion in military aid to Ukraine.

"We will continue to try to make them understand that we cannot do everything forever," a senior administration official, referring to the Ukrainian leadership, told WP.

The U.S. official added that there is a "very strong view" from the administration that it will be difficult to continue to get the same level of security and economic assistance from Congress. Republicans have held the majority in the U.S. Congress since the midterms last November.

There have already been frequent reports that there is growing resistance among Republican lawmakers to provide unrestricted military and financial support to Ukraine.

The statement "for as long as it takes" refers to the scope of the conflict," the U.S. official is further quoted as saying in the "WP." "It does not refer to the scope of the support."(Tagesspiegel)

[August]

I hope the noble Ukrainian defenders keep breaking that record until they kill every last one of those fascist russian occupier thugs.

Ukraine killing nearly 1,000 Russian troops every day, eliminates 5,000 in single battle

https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrain...-single-battle

[Skybird]

No one wants to talk about it. Die Welt does anyway:
----------------------

Russia's nuclear giant ROSATOM has a firm grip on Europe

Despite the war in Ukraine, Russian nuclear companies continue to do business in Europe. They don't even show up in the latest sanctions package. Their customers often have no choice. Whether France or Eastern Europe: without supplies from Russia, reactors would have to shut down.
Rosatom seems untouchable. In Brussels, the EU states are negotiating the tenth package of sanctions against Russia. But even a year after Russian troops invaded Ukraine, EU states dare not ban business with the Russian nuclear industry.

Unlike past sanctions packages, this time they are not even discussing it. "It's clear to everyone that it can't work at the moment for good reasons," says the diplomat of a country whose government would like to see the sanctions in place. "But as long as it's clear that sanctions have no chance, it's pointless to actively propose them."

Yet critics see good reasons to sanction Rosatom. The state-owned nuclear company is a foreign exchange earner and has military significance: according to the Austrian government, 90,000 Rosatom employees work on nuclear weapons.

Without Rosatom, the occupation of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant would not have been possible. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assumes that specialists from the group ensured that the plant was taken off the Ukrainian power grid and now supplies, for example, the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia. The new operating company is then also part of Rosatom.

The fact that Sergei Kirijenko, the former CEO of Rosatom, has repeatedly visited the plant is no coincidence: Kirijenko is now both chairman of Rosatom's supervisory board and deputy head of the Russian presidential administration. He is Putin's man there for the occupied territories in Ukraine. After all, he - unlike the corporation he oversees - is on Western sanctions lists.

Nevertheless, nuclear sanctions will play no role in the tenth sanctions package, according to EU diplomats. Too many states oppose banning business with Rosatom. Hungary is openly resisting, while France, which is far more influential, is doing so in the background. And no sanctions package can be put together against France's veto.

The maneuvering sheds light on a dependency that EU states are reluctant to talk about. Without cooperation with Putin's nuclear group, many nuclear power plants in the EU could not continue to operate. Everything nuclear from a single source, Rosatom could win customers all over the world with it. The company directly or indirectly operates or supplies numerous power plants around the globe and also in the EU.

The group and its more than 300 subsidiaries have a monopoly on the entire nuclear value chain in Russia. They mine uranium ore, enrich it and manufacture fuel rods. They design, build and operate nuclear power plants, reprocessing plants and spent fuel reenrichment facilities. About half of the uranium enriched by Rosatom is supplied to EU countries and the UK.

Traditionally, the relationship with customers operating reactors of Russian and Soviet VVER technology, respectively, has been particularly close. Two of them operate in Bulgaria, six in the Czech Republic, four in Hungary, four in Slovakia and two in Finland. "Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are 100 percent dependent on fuel elements from Rosatom," the Austrian Federal Environmental Agency warned in a study at the end of the year. In all, Rosatom supplies 21 power plants in the EU, it said.

Operators in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Finland and Bulgaria are working to find alternative suppliers. But that's not easy. To be sure, European and American manufacturers can also supply some of the necessary fuel rods. But to do so, they must create capacity for the additional production and adjust production. In addition, time-consuming approval procedures are necessary.

Meanwhile, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is becoming even more dependent on Russia's President Putin. Rosatom is building two nuclear power plants there. PAKS 2 and PAKS 3 are scheduled for completion in a good ten years. Not only is Rosatom building there; Russia is also financing the construction with a loan worth billions.

France's nuclear industry is also dependent on cooperation with Rosatom. State-owned nuclear companies EDF and Orano depend on Rosatom to take over spent fuel rods from French nuclear power plants. Russia's uranium processing plants are among the best in the world.

There, the uranium is re-enriched and delivered to French power plants. In France itself, there are no facilities for re-enrichment and the French interim storage facilities are overflowing. Without the Russia rotation, the operation of French power plants would be at risk.

The entanglements with Rosatom extend into Germany. The company Nukem, for example, which is involved in dismantling Germany's nuclear power plants, is owned by Rosatom. And last Tuesday, an alliance of NGOs demanded that the board of Siemens Energy not be discharged at the annual shareholders' meeting because the company continues to do business with Rosatom. Siemens and Framatom, for example, supply control technology for power plants that Rosatom is currently building.
---------------------------

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by tonschk

We Are Being Lied To About The War In Ukraine

No, you are being lied to and perpetuating those lies. if you insist on believing those lies, don't spread them here. None of us wants to hear about Putrid and Russia or you, for that matter.

[Catfish]

re Skybird earlier I know you are just keeping up reports versus reports to get independent of the propaganda, but we know western propaganda as well as how russian propaganda works.
That said the unbelievable depths to which this Solokhov (i give a sh!t how his exact name is) and even Medjedjev sink, are slowly heating up even the most peaceloving beatniks here (maybe not Alice Schwarzer and Sarah Wagenknecht lol) and generate real hate and fury. Regardless how this war tuns out, Russia will suffer for decades thanks to Putin's craziness. Trade and exchange are and will remain dead.

Yes, Ukraine had (and continues to suffer) heavy losses against an invasion Ukraine itself thought never would happen, but Russia (not Putin!) pays dearly for it. I honestly think Russia will not be able to keep up with this meat grinder. A city or some village for a thousand dead daily? At that rate Russia will not get far.
Of course, most mobiks come from the far east in Russia and Moscow and Petersburg citizens do not feel any losses (while far east babushkas are not being heard or listened to), but this will not go on forever. Wagner cannot recruit much anymore, and until Putin does not order a general mobilization (which will be his, and Russia's downfall) there is no chance for them to go on like this.
All former allies of Moscow have turned away, and it may be just of all even Chechenia will declare its independency, even with Kadyrov at the helm – or because of him.

Yes, Ukraine needs more weapons, ammunition and soldiers to repel fascist Putin. I hope no one steps back or cuts the support. If this happens we have Russia as an aggresor again in a decade.
Make no mistake, Ukraine is fighting Europe's fight. Every flinch now will only worsen the situation.
You cannot appease Putin, the only thing he understands is a direct punch in the face.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

According to a report in Die Welt, Denmark and the Netherlands do not want to supply Leopard-2 tanks after all. Meanwhile, Germany is accusing Poland of also putting the brakes on the delivery of Leopard-2 tanks. German Defense Minister Pistorius complains that planning with the Poles "is not going smoothly." Previously, Spain had already withdrawn from its former delivery plans months ago. One wanted to train 55 Ukrainians on the Leopard-2, however. But deliver nothing.
After all, Norway has agreed to deliver 8 tanks. It is clear to me that they can't deliver that much, they are a small army.

But with all due respect, these are not the total numbers that are needed. These numbers are just an alibi.
--------------------------------


Tagesspiegel:
The head of the Russian mercenary force Wagner has admitted for the first time to founding a notorious "troll factory." He "created and led for a long time" the Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg, Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin told the online service Telegram on Tuesday. The agency's task, he said, was to protect Russia from the "aggressive propaganda of the West's anti-Russian theses."


Well, the forum seems to have such a troll on board.
---------------------------------


Unpleasant but to be expected after the American Congress election:
According to the "Washington Post," the U.S. is increasing pressure on Ukraine to show success. U.S. officials have told the Ukrainian government that it is facing a critical point in the war against Russia, the newspaper writes.

Despite promises to support Ukraine "for as long as necessary," the latest aid package from Congress and U.S. allies represented Kiev's best chance to turn events on the battlefield in its favor.

In a recent package, the U.S. had pledged more than $2 billion in military aid to Ukraine.

"We will continue to try to make them understand that we cannot do everything forever," a senior administration official, referring to the Ukrainian leadership, told WP.

The U.S. official added that there is a "very strong view" from the administration that it will be difficult to continue to get the same level of security and economic assistance from Congress. Republicans have held the majority in the U.S. Congress since the midterms last November.

There have already been frequent reports that there is growing resistance among Republican lawmakers to provide unrestricted military and financial support to Ukraine.

The statement "for as long as it takes" refers to the scope of the conflict," the U.S. official is further quoted as saying in the "WP." "It does not refer to the scope of the support."(Tagesspiegel)

The Netherlands does not own leopards Germany does we lease them it is Germany that made the decision not to allow the Netherlands to give them to Ukraine like we gave the patriots.

Some Western leaders have harbored reservations about sending certain types of heavy weaponry to Ukraine, worried about a direct confrontation with Russia, especially after Putin signaled a willingness to use nuclear weapons. But loud public lobbying by Zelensky, followed by quiet behind-the-scenes dealmaking by U.S. officials, has changed the dynamic. Biden and Blinken spent much of December and January working to convince allies to help provide Ukraine with the tanks and missiles that his administration had resisted sending for months.

Biden aides encouraged the Netherlands, for example, to help the United States provide critical air defense systems. On Dec. 20, officials at the National Security Council met with senior Dutch officials and stressed the importance the United States was placing on air defense, according to a senior administration official familiar with the meeting, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reveal details of private discussions.

What the Dutch officials did not know was that the United States was working to bring Zelensky to Washington the next day, where Biden would announce that he was approving a Patriot Missile battery, Zelensky’s top request to help defend against Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure.

The battery needed a launcher — ideally one already in Europe — so Dutch officials worked through the holidays to see how they could assist the United States, the official said. In January, Biden invited the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, to visit the White House, and the Dutch came up with a solution. When Rutte visited on Jan. 17, he said the Netherlands would provide two Patriot Missile launchers and missiles to Ukraine. https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...itical-moment/

The Dutch are willing to support Ukraine as long as it is needed we do not have much, but we are willing to pay for it.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Dargo

The Netherlands does not own leopards Germany does
we lease them it is Germany that made the decision not to allow the Netherlands to give them to Ukraine like we gave the patriots.

The Dutch are willing to support Ukraine as long as it is needed we do not have much, but we are willing to pay for it.

All i can say is I'd really like to see Scholz being removed from office.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

The Netherlands does not own leopards Germany does we lease them it is Germany that made the decision not to allow the Netherlands to give them to Ukraine like we gave the patriots.

No longer valid, that was before then German policy changed. Berlin no longer blocks at all anyone from anything, regarding Leopard-2 and Leopard-1. The original plan was to buy the leased tanks and then give them to Ukraine, and AFAIK this would be perfectly possible to do now.
Its strange that first Germany was attacked for beign the biggest brake, and now that it wills to dleiver and allow delivcery of Leo-2s many previous statements on that oklther would be wuilling to send Leopard-2 have been answered with sudden silence now that the calls are made. The only explanation I can imagine is that many boasted with their "willignbess" as long as they assumed they owuld not be called by name since the Germans would nti allow dleivery Leopard-2 deliveries anyway, so one could collect the applause for that"willingess" while leaving the blame to Germany. Now things have changed, and bluffing is no more possible and the players are called to show their cards.

However, in this way the MBTs going to Ukraine now or in one year will play no role. They simply always will be way too few. They are no omni-potent miracle weapons that will win no matter the circumstances and against any numerical odds. And different from HIMARS laucnhers, a tank is not able to be hidden from the enemy if he should have an effect. The Leopards will attract unwelcomed attention - and pay a price for that.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Catfish

All i can say is I'd really like to see Scholz being removed from office.

And we gone to deliver F-16's if the US gives the go ahead.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

No longer valid, that was before then German policy changed. Berlin no longer blocks at all anyone from anything, regarding Leopard-2 and Leopard-1. The original plan was to buy the leased tanks and then give them to Ukraine, and AFAIK this would be perfectly possible to do now.
Its strange that first Germany was attacked for beign the biggest brake, and now that it wills to dleiver and allow delivcery of Leo-2s many previous statements on that oklther would be wuilling to send Leopard-2 have been answered with sudden silence now that the calls are made. The only explanation I can imagine is that many boasted with their "willignbess" as long as they assumed they owuld not be called by name since the Germans would nti allow dleivery Leopard-2 deliveries anyway, so one could collect the applause for that"willingess" while leaving the blame to Germany. Now things have changed, and bluffing is no more possible and the players are called to show their cards.

However, in this way the MBTs going to Ukraine now or in one year will play no role. They simply always will be way too few. They are no omni-potent miracle weapons that will win no matter the circumstances and against any numerical odds. And different from HIMARS laucnhers, a tank is not able to be hidden from the enemy if he should have an effect. The Leopards will attract unwelcomed attention - and pay a price for that.

We can not give what we do not own by contract with Germany. Dutch Defence Minister Ollongren told the House of Representatives that the Netherlands will not give the 18 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. That is what the German government has decided, according to Ollongren. If she lied, the Dutch government will likely fall.

The German government chose not to give these tanks to the government in Kiev, Ollongren said. "That has been a military consideration," she said. If Berlin had chosen to send these tanks anyway, "we would have send these tanks". Prime Minister Mark Rutte said earlier that the Netherlands was considering buying the leased tanks from Germany to give them to the Ukrainians. The cabinet has also offered to train Ukrainian military personnel, so they can handle the Leopard 2A6.