Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Otto Harkaman

^ Pretty much sums it up, I see it much the same way. ^


The onyl trhing that will make those few MBTs surviving is their networking capability that outclasses evertyhign the Russians so far have. Every single tank's crew sees and knows exactly the same what all others see and know.



However, thse tanks dleivered will suffer casulaties, we must be realistic here. Its too few, even when combinign them with those Bradleys. And when the British and European tanks have been thinned out a bit, the American tanks come next winter or so, and again will only be a drop on the hot stone.



Europe, this way it will not work. Too small numbers of evertyhing, too much time wasted. Damn the Germans, especially them, They are like a Russian brake that got stuck while it was on. Imagine that 18 months ago or so Europe would have started to move a tenth or 15% of its MBT fleet in Europe to Ukraine. That would have been 200-350 Leopard-2s. And that does not count in mothballed reserves, and Leopard-1s. Also, the US has hiuge stockpiles of mothballed M-60s and early M1s. Imagine it had begun preparing them for action 18 motnhs ago! The biggest IFV forc eion Europe, by model, is enitgehr the Warrior nor the CV-90s nor the Marders - its the Bradley, AFAIK. A huge forc eof ckmbioned arms, 300 MBTs, 400-500 IFVs, all digitally networkign and interlinked int heri units. Russia would have thought twice before attacking, you can bet on that. Now the good stuff comes - too late I fear, in way too small numbers, and drop by drop, allowing to wipe it off the map drop by drop as well. It seems that the politicians are determined to screw this thing up as much as humanly possible and conceivable.
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Russia sens more ATGMs and a first batch of war robots with AT wepaoins into9 the war zone. The latter are only few and they are experimental, their military value is not really clear. but a small groudn drone on tracks, with a low mprofile, and one of those potent Russian ifnantry ATGMs can be a reald danger for those Western tanks.



If Ukraine is clever, it does not throw these precious tnaks to the front, but keeps them in the rear, as scanning platforms and observers mostly. Or as the vidoe above pouts it: it is u nlkikely that there will be many tnak-on-tank duels, I wrote soem days agao that tnak-on-tank over logn dsistance in the open plain alreraey now happens almost not at all iont eh war, and trhat the MBTs fall victim to closeest range combats and shots from a,mbsuh int heir flanks, drones, and artillery roudns finding them, also RPGs. At these combat distances the Western tanks loose most of their advantages and are as vulnerable as the T-72s. And they are too few anyway, way too few. Scholz must be dancing in his office. Maybe he gets a Russian order of merit once the war is over: for always being too late, always delaying to the max, always doing too little, always not acting until pressure becomes unbearable, andf then only doing what looks impressive and costs lots of money - but cannot be of decisive relevance for the going of the war. I read the Poles now have a name for this kind of underhanded behaviour, they call it "scholzing". I know exactly what they mean by that.
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Most of the warships in the Blacksea have returned to bases. According to Ukraine thius is what they do when they prepare a new major attack: the fuel up and arm up with long range missiles. Russian artillery is trying to force Ukrainian forces into certain fixed positions where they are where the Russians want them in an upcoming offensive. Currently the Russian artillery fires 5-6 times as many shells as the Ukrainian artillery. That is remarkable, considering that weeks ago it was predicted that by now the Russians should aleady be low on artillery ammo. Obviosuly they are not. And their offensive has not even begun.



Its alarming what seems to be ahead later this month.

[Jimbuna]

Russian tank commander accidentally kills five of his own men in humiliation for Putin

Five Russian soldiers have accidentally been killed by one of their commanders, and the Ukrainian defence ministry has shared the footage of the shocking incident. The clip shows the Russian tank swerve past another vehicle that looks to be on fire.

It then moves past another tank, which is surrounded by troops. The turret of the moving vehicle accidentally sweeps five soldiers from where they are sitting.

Some manages to escape unharmed, but other Russian soldiers were not so lucky.

The Ukrainian defence ministry posted the video on Twitter with the caption: "The biggest threat to mobilised Russian infantry are mobilised Russian tankmen."

The video has been viewed more than 1.5million times.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...c9dbcef5b29571

[Jimbuna]

Macron faces wrath of Putin after he fails to rule out sending fighter jets to Ukraine

Emmanuel Macron has infuriated Russia over his reluctance to rule out sending fighter jets to Ukraine. The French President said France does not exclude sending fighter jets but set out conditions before such a step is taken, including not leading to an escalation of tensions or using the aircraft "to touch Russian soil," and not resulting in weakening "the capacities of the French army."

The comments sparked fury in Moscow where Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, said: "Forgive me, but this is absurd.

"Is the president of France really certain that if arms, heavy weapons and aircraft are supplied to the Kyiv regime to conduct combat operations, this will not lead to an escalation of the situation?"

Referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ms Zakharova added: "Such statements only increase the already irrepressible appetite of the Zelensky regime."

French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, speaking with Reznikov, also said there are "no taboos" on sending fighter jets. He also confirmed France is sending 12 more Caesar cannons in the coming weeks.

Ukraine won support on Tuesday from Baltic nations and Poland in its quest to obtain Western fighter jets, but there were no signs that larger nations like the US and Britain have changed their stance of refusing to provide warplanes to Kyiv after almost a year of battling Russia's invading forces.

Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said in the Latvian capital of Riga at a news conference with his Baltic and Polish colleagues: "Ukraine needs fighter jets ... missiles, tanks. We need to act."

Those countries, which lie on NATO's eastern flank, feel especially threatened by Russia and have been the leading advocates for providing military aid.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov held talks with his French counterpart, saying they did not discuss specific fighter jets, but they did talk about aviation "platforms" to help Ukraine's ground-to-air defence.

Reznikov spoke about Kyiv's requests for fighter jets, saying: "I don't know how quick it will be, this response from Western allies.

"I'm optimistic and I think it will be as soon as possible."

He also listed weapons Ukraine has sought in the past year, starting with Stingers, and said the first response was always, "impossible," adding that eventually "it became possible."

Reznikov's trip came a week after Western nations pledged to send Kyiv sophisticated modern tanks.

Several Western leaders have expressed concern that providing warplanes could escalate the conflict and draw them in deeper.

The UK government, among Kyiv's staunchest supporters and military suppliers, said sending its fighter jets is "not practical."

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's spokesman, Max Blain, said Tuesday that "the UK's Typhoon and F-35 fighter jets are extremely sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly," although he didn't say London was opposed to other nations sending planes.

Asked on Monday if his administration was considering sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, US President Joe Biden responded simply by saying: "No."

On Tuesday, Reznikov was asked if Biden's ''no" to F-16s was the final word.

He said: "All types of help first passed through the 'no' stage.

"Which only means 'no' at today's given moment. The second stage is, 'Let's talk and study technical possibilities.' The third stage is, 'Let's get your personnel trained.' And the fourth stage is the transfer (of equipment)."

Kyiv has repeatedly urged allies to send jets, calling them essential to challenging Russia's air superiority and to ensure the success of future counteroffensives spearheaded by Western tanks.

The West also has ruled out providing Kyiv with long-range missiles able to hit Russian territory, citing potential escalation.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...0c2f7416713be3

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Russian tank commander accidentally kills five of his own men in humiliation for Putin

Probably a retaliation for two German Puma IFVs colliding at high speed two days ago in an exercise, leaving 12 injured, some seriously.

[Jimbuna]

Russian army officer admits: 'Our troops tortured Ukrainians'

Allegations of brutal interrogations, where Ukrainian men were shot and threatened with rape, have been made by a former Russian military officer.

Konstantin Yefremov, the most senior officer to speak openly, told the BBC in an exclusive interview Russia now sees him as a traitor and defector.

At one site in southern Ukraine, he said "the interrogations, the torture, continued for about a week".

"Every day, at night, sometimes twice a day."

Mr Yefremov tried to resign from the army numerous times - but he ended up being dismissed for refusing to return to Ukraine. He has now fled Russia.

Using photographs and military documents supplied by Mr Yefremov, the BBC has verified he was in Ukraine early in the war - in the Zaporizhzhia region, including the city of Melitopol.

This article contains graphic descriptions of torture.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64470092

[tonschk]

NAZIS TERRORISTS CRIMINALS AZOV PSYCHOPATS are NAZIS CRIMINAL TERRORISTS and PSYCHOPATS NAZIS

[Rockstar]

The soft chimes of a song Ukraine doesn’t want to hear

Whether the West wants or expects Ukraine to recapture Crimea — or win the war militarily — appears up for debate in Washington.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/20...-want-to-hear/

Written by Ted Snider
1 Feb 2023

Though not being spoken loudly nor amplified by the media, a quiet and tentative consensus may be emerging on some key issues regarding ending the war in Ukraine.

On January 21, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said that “for this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all — every inch — of . . . Russian-occupied Ukraine.”

Milley’s surprisingly public assessment that Ukraine was unlikely to recapture all of its territory, including Crimea, was echoed more quietly by anonymous U.S. officials. Toward the bottom of a lengthy New York Times article on the Biden administration’s increasing openness to providing Ukraine with “the power to strike” Crimea, the newspaper of record conceded that “the Biden administration does not think that Ukraine can take Crimea militarily.”

And that may not just be the assessment of the U.S. military; it may be a perspective shared by Ukraine as well. On January 24, David Ignatius reported in The Washington Post that “There is a widespread view in Washington and Kyiv that regaining Crimea by military force may be impossible.”

That assessment is also reflected in a just-published paper written for the RAND corporation by Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe. The paper, entitled “Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” makes the point a number of times.

It begins by critiquing analysts who suggest that Russia could be “forced out of Ukraine” and that it would “leave its neighbor in peace.” Such an “optimistic scenario,” the RAND paper suggests, “is improbable.” “An end to the war that leaves Ukraine in full control over all of its internationally recognized territory,” according to the authors, “remains a highly unlikely outcome.”

Later in the paper, they repeat that Ukraine retaking “all of its territory, including Crimea . . . seems equally improbable at the present stage of the conflict.” It even notes that “continued conflict also leaves open the possibility that Russia will reverse Ukrainian battlefield gains made in fall 2022.”

But retaking Crimea is not only unnecessary, it may also be detrimental for three reasons. First, as “Kyiv has retaken more territory since September, Russia has imposed far greater economic costs on the country as a whole through its strikes on critical infrastructure.” Second, Russia “perceives this war to be near existential,” and “Ukraine has long been in a category of its own in Russian foreign policy priorities.”

It should be added that, if Russia prioritizes Ukraine, Crimea — which most Russians and Crimeans see as part of Russia — is the highest priority in Ukraine. If Ukraine attempts to retake the region, “the risks of escalation—either nuclear use” or the war expanding to NATO — “will spike.”

Finally, “given the slowing pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensives,” combined with Russia’s “substantial defensive fortifications along the line of control, and its military mobilization. . . restoring the pre-February 2022 line of control— let alone the pre-2014 territorial status quo — will take months and perhaps years to achieve.”

Attempting to retake Crimea would lengthen the war, and a longer war will lead to greater Ukrainian loss-of-life, the possibility of greater Russian territorial gains, greater devastation of Ukrainian infrastructure, and more disruption of the global economy. It will also prevent the U.S. from focusing on “other global priorities.”

The authors of the RAND report say that attempting the recapture of Crimea would increase the duration of the war and that “duration is the most important” dimension for the U.S. to consider after the risks of nuclear weapons use, and a Russia-NATO conflict. They also say that longer duration increases both of those risks.

So, despite the January 18 New York Times report quoting U.S. officials saying the Biden Administration was warming to the idea that Ukraine should strike Crimea, there may be a quietly emerging consensus encouraging the opposite. And there may be other signals of restraint if one reads the tea leaves a certain way.

On January 19, The Washington Post reported that CIA Director William Burns secretly met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. Though the Post headline frames the meeting as an opportunity for Burns to share intelligence, “top of mind for Zelensky and his senior intelligence officials during the meeting was how long Ukraine could expect U.S. and Western assistance to continue.”

Burns reportedly hinted that there was a limit. “People familiar with the meeting” told the Post that “(Burns) acknowledged that at some point assistance would be harder to come by.” Zelensky left the meeting “with the impression that the Biden administration’s support for Kyiv remains strong and the $45 billion in emergency funding for Ukraine passed by Congress in December would last at least through July or August.” But he “is less certain about the prospects of Congress passing another multibillion-dollar supplemental assistance package as it did last spring.”

The RAND report offers similar hints. As the war goes on, “The intensity of the military assistance effort could become unsustainable.” It points out that some European and U.S. stocks of weapons “are reportedly running low.”

The report even suggests that Ukraine’s “belief that Western aid will continue indefinitely” may be discouraging negotiations and prolonging the war. The report entertains the idea of “conditioning future military aid on a Ukrainian commitment to negotiations.”

And then there is this from Washington’s foreign policy elite: In that aforementioned Washington Post column, Ignatius says that the Biden administration “has begun planning for an eventual postwar military balance that will help Kyiv deter any repetition of Russia’s brutal invasion.” But he adds that the Biden administration has moved away from the earlier idea of “security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5.” Instead, “U.S. officials increasingly believe the key is to give Ukraine the tools it needs to defend itself. Security will be ensured by potent weapons systems.” Ignatius says one interesting formula would be for the now well-equipped Ukraine to effect “a demilitarized status.”

The RAND report hints at the same change. Ukraine’s proposal of a security commitment by the U.S. and other countries to use military force if Ukraine was attacked was met by “lukewarm” reaction “at best” in the West, according to the report. It then suggests that the U.S. could “promise more aid for the postwar period to address Ukraine’s fears about the durability of peace.” It also recalls that the “tentatively agreed” upon settlement negotiated in Istanbul in April 2022 that balanced security guarantees with a commitment not to seek NATO membership, a point also noted by Ignatius.

On all of these issues there may be a very quiet, but emerging, shape of a consensus that Crimea cannot be recaptured militarily, that there may be a time limit on the West supplying weapons, and that a peace could be maintained after a negotiated end to the war without Ukraine entering NATO. Day-to-day developments could, of course, change the trajectory at any moment. As of this writing, the Ukrainians are asking for assistance beyond the tanks that were pledged last week. It is yet to be seen if Kyiv’s ambitions, and the West’s commitments to a long war, diverge in the months to come.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

OOPS!

[tonschk]

Putin winning another Ukraine battle, Russian army gains foothold in Donetsk's Ugledar

NATO MERCENARIES TERRORISTS NATO are CRIMINAL NAZIS PSYCHOPATS TERRORISTS

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by tonschk

NATO MERCENARIES TERRORISTS NATO are CRIMINAL NAZIS PSYCHOPATS TERRORISTS

The doctor subscribes ye a triple dose of understanding this:


LINK 1

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[tonschk]

NATO NAZIS TERRORISTS CRIMINALS AZOV PSYCHOPATS are NAZIS CRIMINAL TERRORISTS and PSYCHOPATS NAZIS

Russia-Belarus military drills spook Ukraine; DICTATOR zelensky tells troops to 'be ready'

[Catfish]

Tonsch is right, even Lavrov says "Russian soldiers are "securing the interests of Russian culture""

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...00969227587584

As usual the comments are golden