Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Its remarkable that since qzuite some time the media tell us Russia is runnignm out fo ammo. But they do not lose a wor don how thin the ammo supplies for missiles throwers and artillery on Ukrainian side are.



Also, plenty of ammo, very epensive sorts of ammo are being used to shoot down decoy and low cost drones costing just a fraction of the defensive counter missiles taking them out.


I suspect since some time already that the Russians keep Ukrianian enaged at Bachmut only to have them wastring their sparse ammo and chewing on their units there, no matter ther Russian cost. Sort of preparation for a planned Russian offensive with fresh forces.


Europe should not have allowed the ukrainian offensive to sort of bogging down by not delivering them the mechanised armoured transportation means and tanks needed for pushing that attack. Some armoure dtrcuks and border control rovers are not the same like capable IFVs.



I hope I am wrong. But if it turns out the way I thiunk possible, I and the ukrainians will never forgive Babble-Olaf.

-----------------

Sicne today Germany "leads" the NATO spearhead group of 14500. This does not mean the Germans are ready to send those 8500 troops contirbuted as they announced. It only means there is a plan and intention to be capable to do so if they get called up. It certainly does not mean that troops are being sent already now to the Eastern border. As I see it the Germans announced the plan, stay at home and hope that history passes by without challenging their resilience. It has been the same way with their engagement in the Baltic states. Most troops they said would be set up for that theatre - are only existing on paper, witoout intention to change that. Strange way to deter Russia from challenging Baltic borders. I thought deterrance and border control would mean to have forces available, and in place.

[Catfish]

"Thank you for coming to Ukraine. We hope you enjoyed your visit"



They really care for their dead
At least Putin does not have to pay them anymore.

[mapuc]

"Its remarkable that since qzuite some time the media tell us Russia is runnignm out fo ammo. But they do not lose a wor don how thin the ammo supplies for missiles throwers and artillery on Ukrainian side are."

Can't remember if it was in this thread here or somewhere else.

The logistic from USA and Europe can barely keep up with the amount used on daily basis. They get a lot of weapon and weapon system from the Russian army who have left them while running away.

However it seems like they are saving ammo, material and manpower to conduct a third offensive in the near future.

Edit
I found this page, when searching for Ukrainian losses day by day

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ualties-daily/
End edit

Markus

[Rockstar]

Europe’s big question: What a diminished Russia will do next

Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh, International Security Editor, CNN
Updated 6:33 PM EST, Sun January 1, 2023

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/01/europ...cmd/index.html

CNN
—
Russia’s war in Ukraine has proven almost every assumption wrong, with Europe now wondering what left is safe to assume.

Its invasion in February managed to startle in every way. To those who thought Moscow was sane enough to not attempt such a massive and foolhardy undertaking. To those who felt the Russian military would waltz across a land of 40 million people and switch to clean-up operations within 10 days. And to those who felt they had the technical and intelligence prowess to do more than just randomly bombard civilian areas with ageing artillery; that the Kremlin’s military had evolved from the 90s levelling of Grozny in Chechnya.

And finally, to those who felt nuclear saber-rattling was an oxymoron in 2022 – that you could not casually threaten people with nukes as the destruction they brought was complete, for everyone on the planet.

Still, as 2022 closes, Europe is left dealing with a set of known unknowns, unimaginable as recently as in January. To recap: a military once considered the world’s third most formidable has invaded its smaller neighbor, which a year ago excelled mostly in IT and agriculture.

Russia spent billions of dollars apparently modernizing its military, but it turns out that it was, to a large extent, a sham. It has discovered its supply chains don’t function a few dozen miles from its own borders; that its assessment of Ukraine as desperate to be freed from its own “Nazism” is the distorted product of nodding yes-men, feeding a president – Vladimir Putin – what he wanted to hear in the isolation of the pandemic.

Russia has also met a West that, far from being divided and reticent, was instead happy to send some of its munitions to its eastern border. Western officials might also be surprised that Russia’s red lines appear to shift constantly, as Moscow realizes how limited its non-nuclear options are. None of this was supposed to happen. So, what does Europe do and prepare for, now that it has?

Key is just how unexpectedly unified the West has been. Despite being split over Iraq, fractured over Syria, and partially unwilling to spend the 2% of GDP on security the United States long demanded of NATO members, Europe and the US have been speaking from the same script on Ukraine. At times, Washington may have seemed warier, and there have been autocratic outliers like Hungary. But the shift is towards unity, not disparity. That’s quite a surprise.

Declarations that Russia has already lost the war remain premature. There are variables which could still lead to a stalemate in its favor, or even a reversal of fortune. NATO could lose patience or nerve over weapons shipments, and seek economic expediency over long-term security, pushing for a peace unfavorable to Kyiv. But that does, at this moment, seem unlikely.

Russia is digging in on the eastern side of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, and has the advantage that the Donetsk and Luhansk frontlines in Ukraine’s east are nearer its border. Yet its challenges are immense: poorly trained, forcibly conscripted personnel make up 77,000 of its frontline troops – and that’s according to the glossy assessment voiced by Putin. It is struggling for munitions, and seeing regular open, internal criticism of its winter supply chain.

Ukraine is on home territory, with morale still high, and Western weapons still arriving. Since the collapse of Moscow’s patchwork of forces around the northeastern city of Kharkiv in September – where their supply lines were cut by a smarter Ukrainian force – the dynamic has all been against Moscow.

The prospect of a Russian defeat is in the broader picture: that it did not win quickly against an inferior adversary. Mouthpieces on state TV talked about the need to “take the gloves off” after Kharkiv, as if they would not be exposing a fist that had already withered. Revealed almost as a paper-tiger, the Russian military will struggle for decades to regain even a semblance of peer status with NATO. That is perhaps the wider damage for the Kremlin: the years of effort spent rebuilding Moscow’s reputation as a smart, asymmetrical foe with conventional forces to back it up have evaporated in about six months of mismanagement.

The question of nuclear force lingers still, chiefly because Putin likes regularly to invoke it. But even here Russia’s menace has been diminished. Firstly, NATO has been sending unequivocal signals of the conventional devastation its forces would mete out were any form of nuclear device used. Secondly, Russia’s fairweather allies, India and China, have quickly assessed its losing streak and publicly admonished Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric. (Their private messaging has likely been fiercer.)

And finally, Moscow is left with a question nobody ever wants to learn the answer to: if its supply chains for diesel fuel for tanks 40 miles from its border do not function, then how can they be sure The Button will work, if Putin reaches madly to press it? There is no greater danger for a nuclear power than to reveal its strategic missiles and retaliatory capability do not function.

Despite this palpable Russian decline, Europe is not welcoming in an era of greater security. Calls for greater defense spending are louder, and heeded, even if they come at a time when Russia, for decades the defining issue of European security, is revealing itself to be less threatening.

Europe is realizing it cannot depend on the United States – and its wild swings between political poles – solely for its security.

Meanwhile thousands of innocent Ukrainians have died in Putin’s egotistical and misguided bid to revive a Tsarist empire. More broadly, authoritarianism has been exposed as a disastrous system with which to wage wars of choice.

Yet some good has come from this debacle. Europe knows it must get off its dependence on Russian gas immediately, and hydrocarbons in general in the longer term, as economic dependence on the fossil fuels of dictators cannot bring longer-term stability.

So, how does the West deal with a Russia that has experienced this colossal loss of face in Ukraine and is slowly withering economically because of sanctions? Is a weak Russia something to fear, or just weak? This is the known unknown the West must wrestle with. But it is no longer such a terrifying question.

For over 70 years, the Russians and West held the world in the grip of mutually assured destruction. It was a peace based on fear. But fear of Moscow should be ebbing slowly, and with that comes the risk of miscalculation. It also raises a less chilling prospect: that Russia – like many autocracies before it – may be fading, undermined by its own clumsy dependence on fear domestically.

Europe’s challenge now is to deal with Russia in a state of chaotic denial, while hoping it evolves into a state of managed decline. One abiding comfort may be that, after underestimating Moscow’s potential for malice, the risk for Europe would be to overstate its potential as a threat.

[Skybird]

Der Spiegel:
-------------------
If you wish to surrender, please dial the...

Ukraine is using a hotline and drones to try to persuade Russian soldiers to surrender. Apparently, the unusual method is succeeding - which says a lot about morale in Putin's army.

Under heavy fire, a fighter from the Wagner Group wanders through trenches in the Donbass. Realizing that his situation is hopeless, he looks up and sees a drone in the sky. He signals the unmanned aerial vehicle to surrender and is escorted into captivity.

If the Ukrainian armed forces have their way, the video of this surrender, which probably only came about by chance, should not remain an isolated case. They are trying to convince Russian soldiers to lay down their arms, sometimes with unusual concepts. In doing so, they are apparently mainly targeting new recruits who have been sent to the front in the course of mobilization - and are often poorly motivated anyway.

In a new promotional video, the Ukrainian military now shows how it envisages surrender with the help of drones. It is designed like an instruction manual. The method could also help the Ukrainians themselves to take prisoners of war comparatively easily and risk-free - they run less risk of being ambushed themselves. In addition to the use of drones, there are other offerings that are apparently intended to weaken the fighting capabilities of the Russian attackers.

Under the name "I want to live," the Ukrainian government has now also set up a hotline, a website
as well as a Telegram channel, which are supposed to be available around the clock. They promise Russian soldiers treatment under the Geneva Convention, three meals a day and medical care if they surrender. In addition, the website also provides information on how potential recruits can best avoid mobilization. However, the site has since been blocked in Russia .

Nevertheless, the unusual concept seems to be reaching its target audience. According to the Russian investigative portal Meduza, there were between 50 and 100 calls a day via the hotline and the site at the beginning. In the meantime, there are said to be more than a hundred calls a day. These are probably mainly young men and their families who first want to find out about the consequences of giving up. Statistics from the Russian search engine Yandex support the interest; since mid-November, there have been 10,000 inquiries there a week with the phrase "How to surrender?" Ukraine speaks of 4,300 concrete interested parties, some of whom would soon be ready to surrender.

The interest is probably due in part to the shortcomings of the Russian military. Since the beginning of the war, the army has been suffering from logistical problems, supplies have been slow to arrive and some soldiers have been suffering from a lack of food. The winter is likely to exacerbate the problems, and experts believe Moscow's troops are ill-prepared for the cold. In addition, new recruits and former prisoners are being burned up on the front lines. More experienced fighters use them as cannon fodder to spy out enemy positions.

According to the New York Times, Russia responded to the "I want to live" program by sending SMS messages to Ukrainian numbers asking them to surrender. So far, however, the messages do not appear to have had a major effect. With the project, the Ukrainians are once again demonstrating that they can cause problems for Russia with a mixture of ingenuity and modern technologies.
----------------------------

[Jimbuna]

Putin ally turns screw on Russian leader as he pins blame on Kremlin for Ukraine success

Vladimir Putin is under increasing political pressure at the start of 2023 after a senior ally appeared to point the finger at the Kremlin for Russia's lacklustre military campaign. Igor Girkin did not hold back in a blunt Telegram message following Ukrainian missile attacks on military facilities. Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea in 2014, posted: "Unfortunately, in some places their strikes on our military facilities turned out to be both targeted and successful. "Due to the ongoing excessive profligacy of the command of units and formations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation it is an impression that our command is unteachable in principle."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...d82cbc653a0f2a

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine demands heavy tanks: „It will depend on Germany“

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, appeals to Germany again. The reason for this is the demand for heavy weapons in the fight against Russia.

„It will depend decisively on Germany that Leopard 2 tanks are finally delivered,“ said Klitschko in a guest article in the „Bild am Sonntag“. „Without this type of tank, it will be difficult to retake more territory in Ukraine.“

The Leopard 2 is a main battle tank made in Germany and is particularly popular because of its great precision.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...c262c7eecca395

'Hundreds' killed as Ukrainian Himars flatten Russian barracks in one of war's deadliest strikes

AUkrainian Himars attack on a town in Russia-held eastern Ukraine flattened completely destroyed a vast building holding several hundred Russian mobilised men inside.

Early estimates from Kyiv and from pro-Russian sources suggest the New Year’s Eve attack on the barracks in Makiivka could be Russia’s single biggest loss of life since the start of the invasion last February.

The Ukrainian military on Monday mocked Russia over the attack on a former school building in Makiivka, a suburb of Donetsk, attributing it to “smoking in inappropriate places” and claiming that it killed “about 400” people.

A former Ukrainian separatist commander put the death toll at “hundreds” of killed and injured.

A video from the Ukrainian army’s communications department showed what was once a huge building turned into rubble, with just one two-storey wall left standing among the smouldering debris on the ground.

A Russia-appointed official in Donetsk on Sunday told the Tass news agency of 15 injured men in the attack in Makiivka but Russian officials have not commented on the cause of the attack or a possible death toll.

Daniil Bezsonov, a separatist official in Donetsk, confirmed on Monday that the school in Makiivka came under attack from Ukraine’s Himars multiple-rocket system.

Shortly before they reported the death toll, the Ukrainian military posted a video online, captioned “Surprise!”, showing what appears to be a Himars system launching a strike in the dark.

Ukrainian media reported that the school housed almost 300 soldiers, most of them mobilised men from one Russian region who were doing their training.

Russia’s ultra-nationalist politicians and staunch war supporters on Monday spoke of a “tragedy in Makiivka” and blamed the Russian military for being too careless, inviting large casualties by housing so many soldiers in one place so close to the frontline.

Igor Girkin, a retired Russian official and former Ukrainian separatist commander who has been increasingly critical of the Kremlin’s handling of the war, on Monday accused the Russian military of negligence.

The entire building reportedly collapsed after ammunition stored inside detonated. Armoured vehicles parked nearby were also destroyed.

The number of casualties in Makiivka are “in several hundreds”, he said on his Telegram channel, adding that a great number of people were missing as they were trapped under the debris.

He said he received repeated complaints that Russia troops in eastern Ukraine can be under a deadly attack “at any moment” as they were stationed precariously close to the front line and well within the range of the Himars missile systems.

Andrei Medvedev, a pro-Kremlin Moscow lawmaker who has links to the Donetsk separatists, said on Monday the decision to house troops “in a house rather than in a well-hidden place is direct help for the enemy”.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...a3b9698a7d2d64

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 107,440 people (+720 per day), 3,031 tanks, 2,027 artillery systems, 6,093 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

The losses of the Russian occupiers as of the morning of January 2, 2023 are approximately 107,440 people.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 01.02.23 are approximately:

personnel - about 107,440 (+720) people were eliminated,
tanks - 3031 (+0) units,
armored combat vehicles - 6093 (+9) units,
artillery systems - 2027 (+6) units,
MLRS - 423 (+0) units,
air defense equipment - 213 (+0) units,
aircraft - 283 (+0) units,
helicopters - 269 (+0) units,
UAVs of operational-tactical level - 1836 (+44),
cruise missiles - 723 (+0),
warships/boats - 16 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 4725 (+5) units,
special equipment - 181 (+0). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3390756

[Jimbuna]

Situation in power system is under control, limits for evening period have been brought to regions, emergency shutdowns in Kyiv, - "Ukrenergo"

On the night of January 2, the Russians again attacked the energy infrastructure with drones. Unfortunately, there is damage.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of "Ukrenergo".

As noted, at the same time, as of 11:00 a.m. on January 2, the situation in the power system is fully under control.

"Due to network restrictions caused by significant damage to main networks as a result of 11 missile and 14 drone attacks by the enemy, to prevent additional accidents, consumption limits for the evening period have been brought to the regions. As a result of the night attack, the situation with the electricity supply in Kyiv has become more complicated, which is why emergency shutdowns are being used. Restoration work is already underway," the message reads.

"Ukrenergo", electricity producers and operators of distribution systems continue to restore damaged facilities to ensure power supply to consumers and increase its reliability. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3390788

Belarus has continued joint military exercises with Russia at least until January 8, - Belarussian Gajun

The Ministry of Defense of Belarus continued joint exercises with the Russian army. They will last at least until January 8.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the "Belarusian Gajun" monitoring group.

As noted, this is evidenced by the schedule of exercises at Belarusian training grounds. December 31 and January 1 became days off for some landfills. Also, some training grounds where the Russian Armed Forces are concentrated were closed without days off "Osypovichsky" and "Domanovo".

In general, the schedule of military exercises at Belarusian training grounds looks like this:

227 combined military training ground "Borysovsky" (Borysovsky district) until 07.01;
Training ground "Gozky" 6 SMB. (Hrodna district) until 06.01;
"Brestsky" training ground 38 AAB (Brest district) until 06.01;
"Osypovichsky" training ground 51 SAB (Osypovych district) until 08.01;
212th aviation range "Neman" (Novogrudsky district) until 06.01;
230 combined military training ground "Obuz-Lisnivskyi" (Baranovichi district) until 07.01;
174 training ground of the Air Force and air defense forces "Domanovo" (Ivatsevichi district) until 08.01;
"Lepelskyi" training ground 19 SMB (Lepel district) until 08.01.
The monitoring group emphasizes that military exercises on the territory of Belarus have been ongoing since April 29, that is, for 36 weeks already.

"The Belarusian army has become more prepared for defensive operations, but it is still not prepared for a large-scale offensive due to the lack of real combat experience," the message reads. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3390805

85% of Ukrainians consider territorial concessions unacceptable, - KMIIS survey. INFOGRAPHICS

In all regions of Ukraine, the absolute majority of the population is against any territorial concessions.

As Censor.NET reports, this is evidenced by the KIIS survey.

So, according to sociologists, for 85% of respondents, no territorial concessions are acceptable. Only 8% believe that to achieve peace and preserve independence, it is possible to give up some territories.

"In September, 87% considered the concessions unacceptable, but the difference with the current indicator is within the statistical margin of error, that is, in fact, no changes have occurred. Also, in September, the same number as now (8%) were in favor of negotiations and were ready to give up certain territories. At the same time, now the share of those who do not support territorial concessions is slightly, but higher than the indicator as of May 2022," the message reads.

In all regions of Ukraine, the absolute majority of the population is against any territorial concessions.

"As you can see, among Ukrainian-speaking, bilingual, and Russian-speaking Ukrainians (respondents who consider themselves Ukrainians by nationality) the absolute majority is against any concessions," the sociologists added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3390818

[Jimbuna]

Von der Leyen and Zelensky held first telephone conversation of new year: "EU will support you as long as it is needed"

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and President Volodymyr Zelensky held a telephone conversation.

She announced this on Twitter, Censor.NET reports.

"In the first phone conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the new year, I expressed my sincere support and best wishes for the Ukrainian people in 2023. The EU will support you as long as it takes. We support your heroic struggle. The struggle for freedom and against brutal aggression," - she emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3390824

We expect first tranche of macro-finance already in January, - Zelensky

Already in January of this year, Ukraine is expecting the first tranche of macrofinance from the EU.

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, announced this following a telephone conversation with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, Censor.NET informs.

"I am glad to start the year with a conversation with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. He thanked for the unwavering support from the EU. We are waiting for the first tranche of the macro-finance already in January, the first batch of energy-saving lamps, school buses, generators, and modular houses. Coordinated steps regarding the Ukraine Summit - EU. We feel supported and are heading towards victory together," Zelensky said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3390845

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Russia's war drains Ukraine's rich list of power

By Vitaly Shevchenko
BBC Monitoring

For decades, Ukraine's super-rich businessmen have wielded enormous economic and political power within their home country. However, since the Russian invasion, Ukraine's most infamous oligarchs have lost billions in revenue.

Has the reign of the Ukrainian oligarchs finally come to an end?

Ukraine's richest man - 56-year-old Rinat Akhmetov - is for many the epitome of an oligarch.

The son of a coal miner turned self-made billionaire, he is known across Ukraine as "the King of Donbas."

As well as owning huge swathes of the steel and coal industry in the east, including the Azovstal steelworks which now lies in ruins, he also owns Shakhtar Donetsk FC, one of the country's best football teams, and until recently one of the country's main TV channels.

But beyond their extraordinary wealth, Ukraine's oligarchs are also renowned for wielding political power.

In 2017, London-based think tank Chatham House said they posed "the greatest danger to Ukraine".

Through a vast network of allies and loyal MPs, Ukraine's oligarchs have repeatedly influenced the passing of laws for the benefit of their own business empires.

President Volodymyr Zelensky called them "a group of people who think they are more important than lawmakers, government officials or judges".

But like so many ordinary civilians, since the beginning of the Russian invasion in the east of Ukraine back in 2014, they have had their businesses blown apart by missiles and their properties lost to the Russian occupation.

Many felt that as Ukraine's richest man Mr Akhmetov should have done more from the very beginning to stamp out separatism fuelled by Russia in his home region.

As Russia's influence backed by military power spread in Donbas, he told his factories to sound their sirens in protest. He also issued statements critical of the separatists.

But as far as funding and supporting the resistance, he was criticised for taking too little action. Especially when compared to another Ukrainian tycoon, billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky.

In March 2014, he was appointed governor of Dnipropetrovsk Region, south-east Ukraine.

As the conflict escalated, Mr Kolomoisky pumped millions into Ukraine's volunteer battalions. He offered bounties for capturing Russian-backed militants and supplied the Ukrainian army with fuel.

But then, in 2019, he found himself at loggerheads with President Zelensky's predecessor, Petro Poroshenko.

Parliament had recently passed a law which resulted in Mr Kolomoisky losing control over an oil company. His response? Turning up at the oil company's headquarters with men allegedly wielding machine guns.

But as the war ground on in the east, and with the loss of yet more factories, mines and fertile farmland, the demise of Ukraine's oligarchs was well under way.

The next blow came in late 2021, when Ukraine passed what was known as the "de-oligarchisation bill".

President Zelensky's new law defined an oligarch as someone who met three of the following four conditions:

Holding influence over the media or politics
Owning a monopoly
Making millions of dollars a year.
All those who qualified were exposed to extra checks and banned from funding political parties.

To avoid being put on the Zelensky list, Rinat Akhmetov immediately sold all his media assets.

But then came Russia's dramatic escalation of the conflict - the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The war has only intensified the loss of earnings for Ukraine's super-rich. But will their demise strengthen Ukraine's democracy?

"Absolutely," says Sevgil Musayeva, editor-in-chief of popular news website Ukrainska Pravda. "This war is the beginning of the end for oligarchs in Ukraine."

"The de-oligarchisation law was one of the first major triggers of their demise," says Serhiy Leshchenko, formerly one of Ukraine's most prominent investigative journalists and now adviser to President Zelensky's chief-of-staff.

"But as the war escalated, it made the oligarchs' life even more difficult," he tells the BBC. "They have been forced to focus on survival rather than domestic politics."

Now, says Ms Musayeva, it is up to Ukraine's civil society and anti-corruption institutions to prevent the emergence of new oligarchs. And, of course, the very survival of democracy in Ukraine depends on the outcome of the war with Russia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64075087

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Catfish]

If the west does not give more military attack hardware to Ukraine this war will not end in 2023.

Ukraine should have sent one missile to Moscow, just as a reminder.
The fact that Russia thinks they can attack a country but can't be attacked on their homeland is baffling.