Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

German paper Die Welt claims it got access to a media file showing footage from ESA satellite "Sentinel 1", showing two ships at exactly the site where only two days later three of the four explosions dispruting the two Nordstream pipelines would take place.


The full article is hidden behind the paywall. The visible intro indicates that the pixelation is substantial, giving me the impression that there is not enough detail to identify the two ships. But timing and position are suspicious.


paywalled:

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschl...-entdeckt.html

[Catfish]

^ Some months ago I read there had been two russian ships near the position at the time of completing NordStream II, to finish the work on the pipeline.

[Jimbuna]

European Parliament will consider recognizing Russia as state sponsor of terrorism on November 23

The European Parliament decided on the date of voting for the resolution, in which Russia will be recognized as a state sponsor of terrorism.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to the European Parliament, this was reported by the deputy spokesperson of the European Parliament, Delphine Collard.

"On Wednesday, members of the European Parliament will vote for a resolution in which Russia is named a state sponsor of terrorism, taking into account the increase in attacks by the Russian Federation on the civilian population and civilian targets in Ukraine. The members will also call for Russia to be held accountable in an international tribunal," she said.

In addition, the representative of the European Parliament announced a vote on the decision to approve macro-financial assistance to Ukraine for 2023 in the amount of 18 billion euros, announced by the European Commission.

A preliminary vote on the matter is expected to take place on Tuesday, November 22, and after consultations with the European Commission and the Council of the European Union, a final decision in the European Parliament will be taken on November 23-24. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3381575

Lavrov was not allowed to attend OSCE meeting in Poland, - Jozviak

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was banned from entering Poland, where the session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly will be held.

This was reported by the Brussels correspondent of Radio Liberty Rikard Jozvyak, Censor.NET informs.

"Warsaw has decided to ban the entry of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Poland for the OSCE ministerial meeting in Lodz on December 1-2. Russia responded with an angry letter to the OSCE," the message reads. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3381599

[Jimbuna]

If Russia does not leave Ukraine, negotiations are needed, but US relies on Zelensky - White House

The White House said that "if Russia does not leave, negotiations will be the right way to end the war," but the United States will rely on President Volodymyr Zelensky.

This was stated by the representative of the White House National Security Council John Kirby, quoted by Newsy correspondent Sasha Ingber, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to LigaBusinessInform.

According to him, if Russia does not leave Ukraine, negotiations are "the right way to end the war".

At the same time, he said that Washington will rely on Zelensky to "determine whether he is ready to negotiate".

Kirby said that everyone in the administration of US President Joe Biden agrees that the war can end today if Russian dictator Vladimir Putin "does the right thing".

"Clearly he has shown no inclination to withdraw his troops, so we also all agree that a negotiated diplomatic settlement is the next best thing," he concluded. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3381634

There will be more aid to Ukraine, - White House

President Joe Biden’s administration is working to increase aid funding for Ukraine.

This was noted in the statement of White House National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

"There will be more help," Kirby said at the briefing.

He added that work is underway with Congress on additional funding in the future. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3381628

G7 to announce Russian oil price ceiling on November 23 - Bloomberg

The Group of Seven (G7) countries intend to announce the level at which they will set the maximum price for Russian crude oil next Wednesday, November 23.

This is stated by Bloomberg, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to Ukrinform.

According to the interlocutors, it is expected that the administration of US President Joe Biden will privately announce the proposed price before the meeting of European Union ambassadors scheduled for November 23.

The interlocutors add that if the EU ambassadors support the American proposal, it is planned to announce it officially that evening.

The price cap on Russian oil, which is supported by the G7 and the EU, would prohibit companies from providing shipping and services such as insurance, brokerage and financial assistance needed to transport Russian oil anywhere in the world unless the oil is sold below the agreed price. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3381629

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

^ Some months ago I read there had been two russian ships near the position at the time of completing NordStream II, to finish the work on the pipeline.

The footage they talk of here is from two days before the explosions occured. The material was leaked to the editors.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

If Russia does not leave Ukraine, negotiations are needed, but US relies on Zelensky - White House

The White House said that "if Russia does not leave, negotiations will be the right way to end the war," but the United States will rely on President Volodymyr Zelensky.

This was stated by the representative of the White House National Security Council John Kirby, quoted by Newsy correspondent Sasha Ingber, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to LigaBusinessInform.

According to him, if Russia does not leave Ukraine, negotiations are "the right way to end the war".

At the same time, he said that Washington will rely on Zelensky to "determine whether he is ready to negotiate".

Kirby said that everyone in the administration of US President Joe Biden agrees that the war can end today if Russian dictator Vladimir Putin "does the right thing".

"Clearly he has shown no inclination to withdraw his troops, so we also all agree that a negotiated diplomatic settlement is the next best thing," he concluded. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3381634

There will be more aid to Ukraine, - White House

President Joe Biden’s administration is working to increase aid funding for Ukraine.

This was noted in the statement of White House National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

"There will be more help," Kirby said at the briefing.

He added that work is underway with Congress on additional funding in the future. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3381628

They apply candies and the whip. And not to Putin. Zelensky must relaise that his time is running out. Not immediately. But they have started the clock.


And no, Putin will not leave the Ukraine. Why the hell should he do that...?


The split signals the Us sends now, are n ot really any split at all. They are quite clear. Maybe Biden adapts to the new reality in Congress - but I dont know to what degree he needs ocngress for ever new military aid packages to Ukraine. I leave answering that to others. Maybe he also has already started to prepare for elections 2024. The war costs money, and continuing it is not popular for many Trumpists amongst the Republicans.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I dont know to what degree he needs ocngress for ever new military aid packages to Ukraine. I leave answering that to others.

First I’d suggest stop with thought that one party is 100% for and the other 100% against supporting Ukraine. That’s the headlines talking. The thing to keep in mind too is there was a Gallup poll conducted in 2009 that found a higher percentage of military people who are active duty or veteran were of the Republican Party persuasion. It may be their answers to the below poll might reflect percentages in certain categories of how tired they are of war or hearing about war and just want to have a life of their own.

As for U.S, foreign policy it’s a divided power, with the major share falling usually to the president. Though congress does hold the ‘purse strings’ and has the power to regulate or even stop the funding.

Below the most recent poll I can find is from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft www.quincyinst.org regarding support for or against Ukraine. Contrary to popular belief it’s not as black and white or bipolar as we might think it is. Also notice too no where in the line of questioning is Trump ever mentioned, that’s the thing with polls, first people are surveyed THEN politicians start running their mouth.

https://www.filesforprogress.org/dat...e_toplines.pdf

Samples from above linked poll

In your view, do you think the Biden Administration and Congress need to do more diplomatically to help end the war in Ukraine — that is, to engage in diplomatic talks and negotiations — or do you think they have done enough?

Democrat Need to do more 50%. Has done enough 39%
Independent Need to do more 50%. Has done enough 35%
Republican Need to do more 47%. Has done enough 38%

Would you support or oppose the United States pursuing diplomatic negotiations as soon as possible to end the war in Ukraine,even if it means Ukraine making some compromises with Russia?

Democrat Strongly support 13%. Somewhat support 49%
Independent Strongly support 16%. Somewhat support 40%
Republican Strongly support 12%. Somewhat support 42%

Unbeknownst to many us here in the U.S. we seem to have common ground and think a lot alike . But sometimes I think that’s exactly what the headlines and politicians don’t want us to realize.

[Rockstar]

Reports coming out of Ukraine the German Panzerhaubitze 2000s are no longer operational due to the lack of spare parts to fix them. Let me guess “ya, but what about Trump?”

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Reports coming out of Ukraine the German Panzerhaubitze 2000s are no longer operational due to the lack of spare parts to fix them. Let me guess “ya, but what about Trump?”

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...postcount=8309

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine war will be over by end of spring, country's deputy defence minister predicts

Ukrainian forces could be back in Crimea by the end of December and the entire war with Russia will be over by the spring, a Ukrainian deputy defence minister has predicted.

Volodymyr Havrylov, a retired major general, said his country would never stop fighting until victory and had even factored in the potential of a Russian nuclear strike.

The minister, in an interview with Sky News, said he believed the probability of an atomic attack by Russia to be low, but said: "Yeah, it would be drama.

"For everybody it will be just - God knows what scenario - but it [a tactical nuclear strike] is not [a] threat which will stop us from... continuing our war."

In terms of the prospect for peace talks with the Kremlin, Mr Havrylov said they would only happen once Russian troops are ready to leave every inch of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula that President Vladimir Putin seized in 2014 and swathes of the east of Ukraine that have been held by Russian-backed separatists for the past eight years.

"There is a decision inside the society in Ukraine that we are going up to the end," he said in London during a trip to the UK this week.

"It doesn't matter what kind of scenario is on the table.

"People paid a lot of blood, a lot of efforts to what we have already achieved.

"And everybody knows that any delay or frozen conflict is only the continuation of this war against the existence of Ukraine as a nation."

Ukraine's troops, backed by Western weapons, achieved a hugely significant win earlier this month with the recapture of the southern city of Kherson, forcing Russian troops to retreat back to the eastern side of the Dnipro River.

It had been the only regional capital taken by Russia.

Asked if the success made other goals feel more likely, such as retaking Crimea, Mr Havrylov said: "It's only a matter of time and, of course, we would like to make it sooner than later."

He said this could be helped by what is known as a "black swan" event - something unpredictable - happening in Russia, such as the sudden collapse of the Putin regime.

"I think Russia can face a black swan in their country, inside Russia and it can contribute to the success of us with Crimea," the minister said, speaking in fluent English.

There was "also a military option as well with some kind of combination of forces, resources and something else".

"We can step in Crimea, for example, by the end of December. Possible, possible. Not excluded that it be so," he added.

Mr Havrylov believed Ukrainian troops would continue to fight through the winter, exploiting their momentum, despite the harsh conditions, with freezing temperatures and exhaustion.

He said that they did not have a choice because any pause in operations would give the Russian side a greater chance to replenish their stocks and bring in reinforcements.

"They're interested in just making a pause in this war to regroup, to bring more people from the motherland... that's the dream.

"That's why... we have no right to stop. We have to advance," he said.

As to when the war will end, Mr Havrylov said as a military it was important to be prepared for a long fight if Russia is able to reinforce.

"Of course, in this case, the war will take some time. But my feeling is that by the end of the spring, this war will be over."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...20f8b0c35ad108

[Jimbuna]

Russia ‘borrows $13.6bn in largest ever debt issuance in a single day’ to continue faltering war

Russia has borrowed its largest amount of cash ever in a single day to raise funds for the Ukraine war, British defence chiefs have said.

On Wednesday, Russia’s finance ministry borrowed $13.6billion (£11.4billion) as it conducted its biggest ever debt issuance in a single day in order to continue Vladimir Putin’s faltering invasion.

In its latest intelligence report, the British Ministry of Defence (MoD) warned that the money raised is a “key mechanism to sustain defence spending”.

While the amount raised suggests confidence in the current fiscal climate, the ministry is likely “anticipating an increasingly uncertain fiscal environment over the next year”, the MoD said.

The ministry added: “On November 16 2022, Russia conducted its largest ever debt issuance in a single day, raising RUB 820 (USD $13.6billion).

“This is important for Russia as debt issuance is a key mechanism to sustain defence spending, which has increased significantly since the invasion of Ukraine.

“Russia’s declared ‘national defence’ spending for 2023 is planned at approximately RUB 5 trillion (USD $84billion), a more than 40 per cent increase on the preliminary 2023 budget announced in 2021.”

They added: “Debt issuance is expensive during periods of uncertainty.

“The size of this auction highly likely indicates the Russian Ministry of Finance perceives current conditions as relatively favourable but is anticipating an increasingly uncertain fiscal environment over the next year.”

It comes as Russia claimed to have “successfully” carried out flight tests of its giant Satan-2 hypersonic missile.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsl...78ab63a8af4a5b

[Jimbuna]

Leave if you can to save energy - Ukraine power boss

By Catherine Byaruhanga in Kyiv
BBC News

The head of Ukraine's biggest private energy firm says people should consider leaving the country to reduce demand on the country's power network.

"If they can find an alternative place to stay for another three or four months, it will be very helpful to the system," DTEK chief executive Maxim Timchenko told the BBC.

Russian attacks have damaged almost half of Ukraine's energy system.

Millions of people are without power as temperatures drop for winter.

Blackouts - both scheduled and unscheduled - have become common in many parts of Ukraine, as Russia aims regular waves of missile attacks at parts of the energy infrastructure.

Earlier this week, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov suggested that the strikes were a "consequence" of Ukraine's refusal to negotiate with Russia.

Several Western leaders have said that targeting civilian infrastructure is a war crime.

Mr Timchenko, whose company supplies more than a quarter of Ukraine's power, says the system becomes less reliable with each Russian attack, and reducing electricity consumption is the key to keeping it running.

The government has urged people to limit their use of domestic appliances such as ovens and washing machines.

But the damaged energy system is still unable to produce enough electricity to meet current needs, so any way of reducing usage - including leaving the country - should be seen as helping Ukraine to win the war against Russia, Mr Timchenko explained.

"If you consume less, then hospitals with injured soldiers will have guaranteed power supply. This is how it can be explained that by consuming less or leaving, they also contribute to other people."

Russia's attacks on infrastructure increased after a series of setbacks on the battlefield, including a major Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region and territorial gains in the south of the country, which eventually led to the recapture of the city of Kherson.

With temperatures in some parts of Ukraine already below freezing, there is concern that millions of people will be left without power and heating throughout the winter.

Until now, blackouts have generally been limited to a few hours, but more Russian attacks could lead to longer periods without power. Fixing the damaged infrastructure is also becoming more difficult.

"Unfortunately we are have run out of equipment and spare parts... That's why we appeal to our partners, government officials, companies and equipment producers to help us with the immediate supply of available equipment," Mr Timchenko said.

Russia's historical ties with Ukraine - including in developing its energy system - are also proving a problem.

"They were colleagues, now they are enemies," Mr Timchenko said. "They bring all this knowledge to Russian military forces, educate them, make very concrete targets, know big parts of our grid or power stations."

Despite the difficulties though, Ukrainian engineers continue to work in some of the most dangerous parts of the country, risking their lives to reconnect towns and cities to the grid.

Early on Saturday, the Ukrainian defence ministry announced that the railway station in Kherson was the first building in the city to have electricity.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63687037

[Skybird]

Die Zeit writes:
-------------------
Russia is apparently preparing for the next major mobilization of soldiers

- although the previous partial mobilization officially ended on October 28. At that time, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had announced that the required 300,000 soldiers had been drafted and that no further measures were planned. In the future, only volunteers and contract soldiers would be used for the "special military operation," as Russia calls its war in the neighboring country. According to the report, the millions of reservists in Russia should be spared a call-up.

It does not look like that will happen now, as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes in its daily situation report. In St. Petersburg, one citizen received a draft notice despite the official conclusion of mobilization - with the military commissar telling him to report for duty in January. At the same time, ultranationalist military bloggers and propagandists have begun talking about a general mobilization in December or January, but without providing concrete evidence.

The independent Russian media outlet Polygon reported that the partial mobilization may never have ended in reality. For example, state institutions had sent their employees to "mobilization courses" only a few days after the announced end.

Another indication of the ongoing partial mobilization was provided by a Russian court of all places. Pravo magazine, which specializes in legal issues, reported on a trial in which a mobilized soldier was accused of beating a superior. The military court cited as an aggravating circumstance that the act occurred during the period of mobilization - although the incident occurred about two weeks after the officially announced end of mobilization.

President Vladimir Putin left a back door open on the confiscation by never signing a decree that would have legally ended the mobilization. This was not necessary, Putin explained. In ISW's estimation, the unofficial mobilization efforts and potential preparations for a next wave will do Russia more harm than good. ISW suspects that October 28 was not a randomly chosen date for the end of the partial mobilization.

After all, November 1 marked the beginning of the second of the six-month conscription cycles, which requires enormous bureaucratic effort and trainers. Putin had thus tried to avoid placing a double burden on the authorities. Now that apparently mobilized people will have to be trained after all, in addition to regular conscripts, the two groups will have to share the already very limited training capacity. According to ISW, this means that Russia will have even more poorly trained soldiers in the future. Another wave of mobilization will only worsen the situation and reduce Russia's overall combat capability, he said.

-----------------------------

[Eichhörnchen]

European Parliament will consider recognizing Russia as state sponsor of terrorism on November 23 /QUOTE]

You see - it won't happen. Does anyone have a veto on this (i.e. Hungary)?