Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Gorpet]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Total combat losses of Russia since beginning of war - about 62,500 people, 266 planes, 235 helicopters, 2,486 tanks, 1,477 artillery systems, 5,133 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

The Russian occupiers, who invaded the territory of Ukraine, continue to suffer losses. As of the morning of October 9, the loss of enemy personnel are approximately 62,500.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24/02 to 09/10 are approximately:

personnel - about 62,500 (+440) people were eliminated,
tanks - 2486 (+14) units,
armored combat vehicles - 5133 (+22) units,
artillery systems - 1477 (+18) units,
MLRS - 348 (+3) units,
air defense equipment - 180 (+0) units,
aircraft - 266 (+0) units,
helicopters - 235 (+1) units,
UAVs of operational-tactical level - 1086 (+7),
cruise missiles - 247 (+1),
ships/boats - 15 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 3890 (+15) units,
special equipment - 136 (+0). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3372445

Ya know Jim that's all propaganda, I think the professional politician and their advisers which are nothing but Ivey league ideologues. Will **** their pants soon.We're talkin about a country that would swallow up Britain and the USA.We will have to see if our politician's can win the gamble.
One damn things for sure they and their families will not want for nothing.

[Gorpet]

Originally Posted by Skybird

This analysis goes far beyond what the media usually say about the likelihood of nuclear war. Recommended read! Not just profane bluffing but psychological automatisms is the name of the game, and that is what makes it so dangerous. AdG writes:
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How likely is a nuclear war in Europe?

Putin has indirectly threatened to use nuclear weapons. How credible is this declaration of war? Let's play through the conceivable scenarios of a nuclear escalation.

Putin has indirectly threatened to use nuclear weapons and declared that he is not bluffing. But this is where things get complicated. Someone who is not bluffing cannot convince the other person who thinks he is bluffing that he is not bluffing by saying he is not bluffing, because that would probably be expected of someone who is bluffing. The only way Putin could safely prove to the West that his threat to use nuclear weapons is not a bluff would be to use nuclear weapons. The West's only way to find out whether it is a bluff or not is to call his bluff. If the military situation comes to a dramatic head, if there is a widespread collapse of the Russian Front, for example, the question of "bluff or no bluff" becomes a matter of fate.

The danger of nuclear escalation is not grasped by the broader public because of a misconception of how nuclear war might occur. The image of the red button possessed by the Russian and American presidents who, by pressing the same, would usher in the end of the world, is misleading. The scenario is different, namely that of gradual escalation, which is much more dangerous because it sets in motion a spiral in which each further turn is associated with greater risk, without either side feeling fully responsible for the escalation. The lines between bluff and actual intent become blurred, and what was meant to be a bluff can become reality.

What needs to be understood is this: The dynamic does not begin when the Kremlin deploys the first tactical nuclear weapons, but before that, when it deploys the delivery systems of those tactical nuclear weapons, because then the White House is under direct pressure to move. The U.S. knows, through satellites and spying, virtually in real time where these delivery systems are and where they are going. The Russians know that the Americans know, and the Americans know that the Russians know. That is, as soon as the delivery systems move, the Russians use that to send a signal to the United States. That message was: to influence the Ukrainians to call off their offensive because, on the other hand, Russia's tactical nuclear weapons are being used.

The question would be: Who will draw his colt first?

If this were a bluff and the U.S. put this pressure on the Ukrainians, this strategy would work and the U.S. would have to worry that the Kremlin would use this method again later. So instead, they could call their bluff and gamble that the Russians will not use the tactical nuclear weapons they have set in motion. If that's the case, Putin's bluff would be called and there would be no denying that he's left bare. This would have far-reaching consequences, because from now on every threat would come to naught and the Kremlin's nuclear armament would be exposed as a toothless tiger. As good as this may sound to Western ears, it comes with a serious problem. For this very reason, Putin would be under extreme pressure to actually use the weapons he has threatened to deploy.

The situation becomes even more complicated. We are dealing with escalation stages where assumptions about later stages influence earlier stages. Because the U.S. is also aware of this dilemma, it is reasonable to think that Putin may feel compelled to actually use the tactical nuclear weapons. This puts pressure on the U.S. to prevent Ukraine from such a strike and not wait for the first nuclear warhead to strike Ukrainian soil. Former U.K. and NATO biological, chemical and nuclear weapons defense force commander Hamish Bretton Gordon told CNN that he assumed Biden had made it clear to Putin: "If you move your tactical nukes, NATO will destroy them with precision-guided long-range missiles."

The United States would be able to use a conventional preemptive strike to knock out the delivery systems of tactical nuclear weapons and make the Kremlin's nuclear strike impossible. The question would be: Who will draw his Colt first? Even if we assume that the Biden administration would not choose to do so, the sheer possibility has repercussions for the Russians' course of action. Since they would have to reckon with such a conventional strike against their tactical nuclear weapons, they would have to strike as quickly and as massively as possible because they only have one opportunity to shoot down their tactical arsenal. In turn, the Americans know this as well, which also puts them under severe pressure to quickly eliminate tactical nuclear weapons.

How would Biden respond?

There is something to be said for the Ukrainians' assumption that the U.S. will protect them in this way against attacks with tactical nuclear weapons and can therefore act in such a cold-blooded manner. Putin, in turn, could now aim to call the U.S. guarantees as a bluff by targeting his tactical nuclear weapons. If he does that, but the U.S. makes no move to do anything about it, that may increase nervousness on the Ukrainian side and thus Moscow's threat potential against Ukraine. That will increase Ukrainian pressure on Biden to take the Russians' tactical nuclear weapons out of play with a preemptive strike. However, that may be a trap and exactly what the Kremlin wants to achieve. The U.S. would look like the aggressor in one fell swoop, the Russian people would rally behind its leadership, and large segments of the world community would condemn the United States.

In other words, once the Russian launchers start moving, the 79-year-old Biden will have a very short period of time to decide whether to take the risk that the Russians are not bluffing and carry out the nuclear decapitation strike against Ukraine or to strike conventionally against the launchers himself. The pressure on him will be enormous, and what the old man decides to do in this situation is an open question. If he chooses to take out the Russian delivery systems with conventional weapons, that would effectively be the U.S. declaring war on Russia. The problem with a preemptive strike is that you end up having difficulty proving that you actually preempted the attacker.

By attacking Russian territory, Putin would have a free hand politically, but would face the problem of not being able to hold a candle to NATO conventionally. The only arsenal of weapons the Russians would have left to counterattack after destroying tactical nuclear weapons would be strategic nuclear weapons, which are widely believed to be impossible to disable. The Kremlin would probably not attack the United States directly, but would go to the next higher level of escalation. That would be an attack with strategic nuclear weapons on military bases in NATO countries that do not have nuclear weapons themselves, i.e., countries like Germany, Poland, or Italy. In Germany, this would probably affect southern Germany and the Rhine-Main region.

Nuclear powers: suicide out of loyalty to the alliance?

NATO would then be faced with the question of whether to respond with a nuclear strike on Russian territory. In this case, however, the nuclear powers USA, France and the United Kingdom would have to reckon with the fact that they themselves would be the target of Russian nuclear weapons as a further counterattack. The question is whether Biden, Macron and Truss would launch their nuclear weapons at Russian targets, even though they would in turn be directing Putin's missiles at them. Then, at the latest, all decision-makers would reach the point where they would have to decide whether to commit suicide in solidarity with their NATO allies. This would be the last chance to stop the escalation and to settle the conflict, admittedly over a destroyed Central Europe, but at least without the downfall of mankind and of their own nation.

The very fact that it is not certain which of the two variants would occur makes the variants before it more likely. For both sides, the Western nuclear powers and Russia, a last lifeboat remains until the end. It is precisely this lifeboat that makes the scenario more likely. This is an old dilemma from the Cold War era. The interests of nuclear weapons states are different from those of countries that do not have nuclear weapons. NATO's deterrence is based on the promise that the nuclear powers are prepared to go down together with the non-nuclear-weapon states. If there are serious doubts about this solidarity to the death, i.e., Moscow considers it a "bluff," the nuclear umbrella for the non-nuclear states no longer works.


One might ask why it is worthwhile to even bother with such horror scenarios, which represent the unlikely worst-case scenario. Because these escalation scenarios make it understandable why actors currently behave the way they do. The worry that caused German chancellors from Konrad Adenauer to Helmut Schmidt and Helmut Kohl to our present day sleepless nights was the gloomy vision that, in the event of conflict, Washington and Moscow would only be able to come to an agreement over the ruins of a destroyed Germany. Early enough not to destroy themselves and the whole world, but too late to prevent nuclear escalation on the European continent. This may explain why Scholz is not exactly overenthusiastic in his support for the Ukrainian offensive in the east.

https://www.achgut.com/artikel/wie_w...rieg_in_europa

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That's why I think since long more European nations need nuclear weapons.

Yes. Including Germany. (And Japan, Australia and South Korea).

Everything you have stated is Hypothetical.Your a smart man Bird. But you don't know.And i agree with you Europe needs and they already have their own nuclear weapons.Get out from under the United States control of them.Yes if European Nations had their own nuclear weapons. We here in the USA could support so many more immigrant's and if we can all breed up, here in America. 200 hundred years from now the asians will not have a chance. And i know your going to say what the hell are you talking about.Let me know when the planet or any country on this planet is having a caucasian history month or 1 day ok.

[Skybird]

I have not stated anythign there, I just quoted the text form the german original source, via DeepL translator.



What is true about the US maybe being hesitent to go into suicide mode over Europe, is also true for France and Britain. Their nuclear weapons are not "Europe's weapons", they are exclusively France's and Britain's weapons - and that is the reason why Germany and Italy and Poland also should have their own nukes, because their density in military and US bases are likely to make them primary Russian targets in case of a war.



"Europe" has no nuclear weapons - France and Britain have. That is a very very big difference. France already made clear that they will never put their nukes under NATO or European command - a foolish daydream of the Germans they voiced last year or the year before. And I assume London in principle ticks the same way, they just sugarcoat it more nicely in words.

[Skybird]

Train traffic on the bridge is running according to plan again, according to Russian sources. Ukrainians have not confirmed it so far.



So believe what you want. I fear it could be true.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Gorpet

Ya know Jim that's all propaganda, I think the professional politician and their advisers which are nothing but Ivey league ideologues. Will **** their pants soon.We're talkin about a country that would swallow up Britain and the USA.We will have to see if our politician's can win the gamble.
One damn things for sure they and their families will not want for nothing.

If Russians can't even defend a bridge how can they win a war!

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Ukrainian special services are authors, perpetrators, and customers of Crimean bridge explosion - Putin

On the evening of October 9, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, said that the attack on the Kerch bridge was organized and carried out by the special services of Ukraine.

As reports Censor.NЕТ, this is stated by social networks.

The Russian president stated that the authors, executors and customers of the Crimean bridge bombing are the special services of Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3372548

[mapuc]

Some innocent civilians in Ukraine will lose their life now..Putin will revenge this by some massive attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine.

I heard that 3 people lost their life in the bridge explosion.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

"We want to arm assault battalion": Poroshenko bought batch of Spartan armored vehicles from Britain. VIDEO&PHOTOS

Petro Poroshenko announced the purchase of a batch of Spartan armored vehicles for the needs of the Armed Forces. The fifth President in Great Britain visited the military warehouses from where the equipment will be delivered to Ukraine.

"This is a combat vehicle, it is called a Spartan. They perform a reconnaissance, surveillance and combat function. Today, we jointly buy and send this armored vehicle to Ukraine for a counteroffensive," Poroshenko shows, writes рress service of "ES", reports Censor.NЕТ.

"An assault is always accompanied by heavy casualties, not only in the enemy, but also in the Ukrainian army. In this war, a war of artillery, the number and severity of injuries depends on the equipment on which the assault or evacuation takes place. During my trips to the East and South, the military strongly advised me to look toward Spartan vehicles, several dozen of which have already been delivered to Ukraine from the United Kingdom," Poroshenko explained.

"When we came to Britain, we agreed with the Ministry of Defense to show us this equipment. And if it's ready, we will process it for our Armed Forces. This equipment is in perfect condition. All these machines are of the same type but designed for different functions. One is designed for assault and reconnaissance, the other for transporting the wounded, but they are united by armor that protects against debris and death, not only saving the lives of our soldiers, but also crushing the Russian.
This equipment is fast, tracked, it can drive through trenches up to 2 meters wide, move over obstacles and submerge in water up to 1 meter," notes the fifth President.

"We have already purchased six of these vehicles and they are ready for shipment to Ukraine. And in 8 more we have to replace the batteries and prepare them for shipment to the assault battalion," Poroshenko said.

"These six Spartan will go through Poland to Ukraine the other day. So soon our Armed Forces will receive these armored vehicles," Poroshenko said.

"I want to thank you all because you were the ones who helped raise some of the money for these armored vehicles. Together with you we have saved more than one life with armor, and every hryvnia of yours and mine has already played a huge role in the counterattack. And it will play again. Until the end. Until victory. To all the liberated territories of our country," Poroshenko appealed to Ukrainians who help the army.

The Spartan belongs to the CVR (Combat Vehicle Reconnaissance) family of armored fighting vehicles. In the British Army, this APC was designed to transport small specialized groups of reconnaissance personnel, anti-aircraft gunners, mortars, engineers, etc. The Spartan has high mobility and compact dimensions, and can carry up to seven men, three of which are crew members. It can overcome water obstacles.

As is known, the Poroshenko Foundation and Public Association "Delo Gromad" purchased and handed over to the Airborne Assault Troops 11 Italian armored vehicles MLS Shield. The Poroshenko Foundation traditionally doubles the amount of funds raised for the AFU by volunteers.

Six months after the start of the large-scale invasion by the Russian army, the Poroshenko Foundation, the Roshen company, and volunteers of the Delo Gromad public association transferred nearly $46 million worth of aid to the AFU.
These funds were used to purchase thousands of body armor and Kevlar helmets, weapons, hundreds of vehicles for the front, including armored cars, trucks and pickup trucks, thermal imagers, hundreds of drones, power generators, digital radios, starliners, military clothing, turnstiles, NATO first-aid kits, water purification systems, construction supplies. Source: https://censor.net/en/v3372543

[Jimbuna]

Russia is looking for additional resources for waging war, negotiations are underway with third countries regarding purchase of shells, - General Staff

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine published information that the leadership of Russia is looking for additional resources for waging war by all means.

As Censor.NET informs, this was reported on the official Facebook page of the General Staff.

The message states: "The leadership of the Russian Federation is taking measures to find additional resources for waging war. At this time, negotiations are underway with third countries regarding the purchase of artillery shells, mortar mines, and components for rocket launcher systems.

Military warehouses and arsenals of the Republic of Belarus remain another source of supplies. In the near future, it is planned to transfer 13 more echelons with ammunition and material and technical means to the territory of Russia." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3372539

[Dargo]

53% of Russians still thought the war is proceeding successfully when polled by Levada in September, down from 73% in May. Most frequent reasons for disappointment:
- No end in sight: 27%
- Mobilization: 23%
- We retreat: 22%

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/st...73054504394753
The reasons in more detail:


Despite Russian pollsters' claims to the contrary (including the opinion of the management of independent Levada), I don't believe you can do telephone polling in a draconian, repressed country. Thus questions like "do you support the war" are meaningless. But still:

[Jimbuna]

Crimean bridge is guarded from ground, from sky, from sea and from space, - Russian media

The Crimean bridge, on which the explosion occurred the day before, is one of the most protected places in the world - it is guarded from the ground, from the sky, from the sea, underwater and even from space.

As Censor.NET informs, this was reported on Sunday, October 9, by the Russian publication Meduza.

It is noted that the entrances to the Crimean Bridge on both sides are guarded by special units of the Russian Guard (they were supposed to inspect cars entering the crossing for explosives and illegal cargo, but the inspections were selective).

According to the statements of the Russian Ministry of Transport, vans and trucks are illuminated with the help of special systems that can allegedly "detect even a nut in the interior of the car or consider what the driver took with him for lunch."

Observation posts were set up on the bridge itself.

It is reported that in the event of an emergency, a special rapid response team must arrive on the scene within minutes to clear the accident and understand what happened.

The Russian Guard is allegedly assisted by special border control forces of the FSB and anti-sabotage groups on land and on water.

According to the publication, small mobile boats of several projects protect the city on the water: anti-sabotage boats of the Grachonok type (equipped with machine guns, grenade launchers or even Igla missile systems), boats of the Mangust project (equipped with machine guns and missiles, but they are mainly used for intercepting ships and inspection) .

In addition, it is reported that BK-16 amphibious boats (the same missiles, machine guns and 19 paratroopers on board), motor boats Afalina and Sargan can be used if necessary.

In order to protect the bridge from a battering ram in front of its piers, special cylindrical concrete fortifications were built to prevent ships from approaching the piers of the crossing.

From land, the ships are supported by the Bal coastal missile complex, equipped with anti-ship missiles with a range of up to 260 kilometers, and the modern Bastion complex with Onyx cruise missiles.

Also, according to the publication, the bridge is guarded underwater - to prevent mining or undermining of the bridge supports, military divers and special groups of the Black Sea Fleet are constantly in the water. And the Plavnyk water area control system supposedly allows you to detect a person with a distance of 2 km, and a ship - with a distance of 3 km.

Special sound traps are also used to protect the bridge - the Amulet-P system.

In addition to divers and traps, specially trained dolphins are allegedly involved in the protection of the Crimean Bridge.

Russia is also allegedly monitoring the bridge from a special Kosmos-K satellite. And the sky above the crossing is regularly patrolled by Russian Su-27 fighter jets and Il-38 anti-submarine reconnaissance aircraft.

On the ground, the city is protected by anti-aircraft systems of different ranges: the S-400 Triumf missile complex and the Pantsyr-S1 anti-aircraft gun.

It is also reported that radar systems are involved in the protection of the bridge: Podsolnukh (it is located in the Crimea and can detect targets at a distance of 450 km) and the Voronezh-DM station (covers a distance of 6 thousand km).

The publication notes that, according to the BBC's calculations, 700 million rubles were spent in 2022, plus another 618 million - on various technical security systems.

According to the Russian edition, the guarding of the railway part of the bridge cost approximately that much.

It will be recalled that the bridge across the Kerch Strait was opened by the occupiers in May 2018. In December 2019, Russia launched a railway connection with it, after which the USA introduced additional sanctions.

Also remind, that on the morning of October 8, a fire broke out on the Crimean bridge as a result of an explosion. According to the Russians, the detonation of the truck led to the ignition of 7 fuel tanks and the partial collapse of two spans of the bridge. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3372528

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Some innocent civilians in Ukraine will lose their life now..Putin will revenge this by some massive attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine.

I heard that 3 people lost their life in the bridge explosion.

Markus

Zaporizhzhia has been hit by Russian missiles, dozens of civilians have been killed in their sleep. More horrendous attacks in Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine and its population.

[Jimbuna]

At least 13 people have been killed by Russian missile strikes on the south-eastern city of Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian officials say.

Dozens more were wounded, and several residential buildings destroyed.

The city is under Ukrainian control, but it is part of a region that Russia says it annexed last month.

Zaporizhzhia has been hit repeatedly in recent weeks, as Russia hits back at urban areas after suffering defeats in the south and north-east of Ukraine.