Here we go again-Ukraine once again - Page 42

mapuc · 02-15-22, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

No, the Northern theatre is too stable as if Russia currently could gain anything up there when stirring the pot, and the Swedes and Fins already are up in arms and have moved closer to joining NATO.

The South-Eastern region however promises tempting opportunities, still.

From the beginning of the 90'ies Sweden carried out a massive disarmament-Conscription was abolished in the year 2000. Many flotillas were closed down and today there are probably 3-4 airfields left. It was not until 2010 that Sweden began to arm itself again — though not at the same pace as they disarmed.

In the 80'ies Soviet would need 14 days to take control over Sweden-Today Russia can do it within a week.

Back to discuss the Ukrainian crisis.

Markus

Skybird · 02-15-22, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

From the beginning of the 90'ies Sweden carried out a massive disarmament-Conscription was abolished in the year 2000. Many flotillas were closed down and today there are probably 3-4 airfields left. It was not until 2010 that Sweden began to arm itself again — though not at the same pace as they disarmed.

In the 80'ies Soviet would need 14 days to take control over Sweden-Today Russia can do it within a week.

Yes, but the social and ethnic realities are very different with Norway, Sweden and Finland, than they are with the Ukraine, Bulgaria, Turkey with its own power ambitions. The playing field "Black Sea" is more unstable and thus dynamically alterable, than Scandinavia. Also, the threat level for Russia is smaller from Scandianvia, while the ukraine is of high stratgeic relevance for it. Finally, Scandinavia never was a Warsaw Pact vasall.

Skybird · 02-15-22, 04:13 PM

FOCUS writes:

Allegedly, parts of Russian troops are retreating from the Ukrainian border. Does this make an invasion less likely? Harald Kujat, ex-inspector general of the Bundeswehr, calls the maneuver a move by Putin to show up the United States.

Shortly before German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, a report caused a worldwide stir. According to Interfax, the first non-governmental news agency in Russia, a partial withdrawal of troops on the Ukrainian border has begun.

Is this the beginning of an easing of tensions in the conflict, after signs there had recently been increasingly pointing to war? Or is the danger of a Russian invasion still high?

It is still unclear how many troops Putin intends to withdraw from the border. But Harald Kujat, ex-inspector general of the Bundeswehr, has no doubt that this is a move coolly calculated by Putin. "He wants the Americans to be put in the wrong by this. After all, they had claimed a few days ago that the invasion would take place this Wednesday." So, with a partial troop withdrawal, Putin would be giving the U.S. the lie.

General Kujat is considered an expert on the relationship between NATO and Russia, which he himself helped shape for a long time - especially from 2002 to 2005 as chairman of the NATO Military Committee. As far as the possible danger of an invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops is concerned, however, he considers international fears to be unfounded. After all, two basic prerequisites would have to be in place for a war: the ability to wage it and win it, as well as the intention to do so.

Russia undoubtedly has the capability to wage such a war, Kujat tells FOCUS Online. "But does the country also have the intention to do so? No! And the troop presence on the Ukrainian border is by no means sufficient proof of this," Kujat says. Even U.S. President Joe Biden had confirmed that not long ago. "A capability without a simultaneous intention does not yet result in a threat militarily." That's why he doesn't think much of the "howls of war" on the international stage.

Kujat cites three reasons for this. "First, Russia would have to rebuild the country after an invasion that would leave great damage in its wake. Second, there is the danger of a guerrilla war that would drag on for years. And third, the painful losses in the war in Afghanistan are still very present in the Russian population." All of these, Kujat said, are serious reasons militarily, politically, financially and also socially to oppose military intervention.

Putin has a clear goal, Kujat says. With the soldiers on the Ukrainian border, he says, the Kremlin chief wants to prevent Ukraine from "becoming an aircraft carrier for NATO." In doing so, he says, the West repeatedly makes the mistake of claiming that each country is free to decide for itself whether it wants to become a member of NATO. "This is all nonsense. Because this decision depends not only on potential member states, but requires the consent of every single NATO state."

U.S. President Biden, however, has since made it clear on several occasions that he would never deploy troops to Ukraine, he said. "By doing so, NATO would be importing a potential war with Russia into the alliance states." Which could have disastrous consequences for the entire world - "including the risk of nuclear war." This, in turn, clearly contradicts the condition that new NATO membership must represent a "gain for alliance security," he said.

And there is another reason that would speak against Ukraine's NATO membership: the democratic state of the candidate country. After all, the "internal constitution" of each candidate country must be in line with the basic democratic principles of the NATO member states. And this is not the case in Ukraine. Because for years the country should have granted greater rights to Russian minorities, Kujat says.

In recent days, it has become apparent that an announcement by NATO that it will refrain from allowing Ukraine to join for the foreseeable future could bring a peaceful solution to the conflict. In 2014, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that Ukraine should not become an "outpost" for either Russia or the West. Kujat: "Ukraine should adopt a consolidated neutrality and grant more autonomy to Russian minorities."

But what steps is Putin taking now? Foreign policy expert Thomas Jäger of the University of Cologne is very skeptical in view of the withdrawal announcement. He knows that Putin is probably the most experienced political poker player on the international stage - and considers the information about the alleged withdrawal to be "thin." "We don't know which troop units are involved, where they are withdrawing to, and whether it might be just another tactical maneuver."

For Jäger, it is obvious that Putin still wants to keep the pressure up. After all, he says, open warfare is not actually in Putin's interest. The Kremlin chief, he says, wants to tie Ukraine as closely as possible to Russia, to win over the population, perhaps even to install a pro-Russian government. "You can't achieve that with open war. That's why I think the most likely scenario is that Putin will rely on hybrid warfare, sabotaging energy supplies, for example, and using propaganda to create sentiment against the government in Kiev."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

mapuc · 02-15-22, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yes, but the social and ethnic realities are very different with Norway, Sweden and Finland, than they are with the Ukraine, Bulgaria, Turkey with its own power ambitions. The playing field "Black Sea" is more unstable and thus dynamically alterable, than Scandinavia. Also, the threat level for Russia is smaller from Scandianvia, while the ukraine is of high stratgeic relevance for it. Finally, Scandinavia never was a Warsaw Pact vasall.

I tried to speculate in which areas Putin could take without NATO activate their article 5. Gotland and part of Sweden, Southern part of Finland is areas he can take-Not saying will. Sweden and Finland is very close to a NATO membership-Not a member yet and as I said earlier NATO will do anything to prevent a war with Russia.

But I think he will invade and occupy part of Ukraine-These two region you mentioned earlier-and he will settle with this

Markus

Catfish · 02-16-22, 05:31 AM

"Russian ambassador to the EU told Die Welt, “As far as Russia is concerned, I can assure you that there will be no attack this Wednesday."

“There will be no escalation in the coming week either, or in the week after that, or in the coming month...Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday," Chizhov added, according to DW.

Russia will wait for a proper answer from the US to the russian proposal, which has not yet been delivered. When i read what Liz Truss has said (whatever she thinks she has to do with the situation) and this also is the US position, i take it there will be a bit of tension.

Catfish · 02-16-22, 05:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

How do you fight Russian propaganda like this ?
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...73389971173382
Markus

When Navalny was imprisoned, after he had been poisoned and fell in a coma, the whole world protested.
After the russian narrative that he was a 'fascist' a lot of people (including here at the forum) suddenly changed their mind, as if there was truth in it. If they had written that he raped women and burned babies alive some would have also believed that. Propaganda works worldwide, you cannot "fight" the gullible.

Catfish · 02-16-22, 06:07 AM

What a load of hysteria this has been. And what it is probably about:

The oft-quoted number of 100,000 troops near to Ukraine may give people the impression that tanks are ready to roll over the border, but this number includes those normally stationed in Russia's many bases in the south of the country, according to the BBC.

Why American media was reporting Ukrainian expectations of war for February 16
A translation from American news media seemed to suggest Ukraine was bracing for war on Wednesday, despite weeks of attempts to calm tensions by President Zelensky's government.
A sarcastic quip from the former comedian-turned-politician appeared to be the first acceptance from Ukraine that war was imminent.

The translation in English was: We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack.

His spokesperson later clarified that he had been merely referencing other media reports, but not before the story was ran by numerous news outlets, such as CNN in the US.

In reality, the Ukrainian president was joking that Ukraine would hold a national day of celebration to ease fears from an invasion. The Ukrainian economy has been under pressure since western media has continuously ratcheted up the likelihood of conflict.

Some US media misreported his comments, losing them in translation. Zelenskyy himself was clear in the speech. The whole address was dedicated to calming panic, not warning people Russia will attack on Wednesday.

Others write that fresh russian troops are advancing to the ukrainian border.

Oh no. Anyway.

Skybird · 02-16-22, 07:02 AM

A cluster of 100,000 armed men is a mob.

A setup with 100 Russian-doctrine battle batallion is an army.

The Americans wanted to not lose the info and media war again like in 2014, so they warned early and said Wednesday might be the day. That was a mistake, it almost invited the Russiand to score easily at the Americans cost by staging a claimed withdrawel just before Wednesday to make Washington look stupid.

NATO says there is no pullback visible so far, and that Russian units are just moving back and then forward again. Also, that the Russians continue to build field hospitals along the border.

Rockstar · 02-16-22, 08:37 AM

A couple of reasons IMO why U.S. media is harping on Russia. I think because COVID is over we need a new boogie man. Second, it also gears up the public towards a confrontation. It’s harder for an adversary to overcome or just walk across a border occupy a land when he’s been demonized and a whole nation is ready for a war.

Further I don’t recall anyone here thinking Navalny was a fascist. I don’t think he or anyone here can define what that means anyways. I know I called him a useful idiot and hoped like hell if we were going to do this we could find someone with better credentials than that moron. And I also called out the media narrative the poison could only be made by Putin. When in fact you could buy the book State Secrets from Amazon and get the ingredients.

mapuc · 02-16-22, 09:01 AM

What I hope is the truth, is not the same as reality.

I hope they withdraw the troops all 150000 of them within the next 14 to 21 days.

Markus

Jimbuna · 02-16-22, 09:15 AM

Russian officials have been mocking the West over warnings that Moscow could launch an invasion of Ukraine on 16 February - that's today, if you've not looked at your calendar.

Ukraine declared a "day of unity" after the date was suggested by US officials and widely reported.

"I'd like to ask if US and British sources of disinformation... could publish the schedule of our upcoming invasions for the year. I'd like to plan my holidays," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote in a Facebook post.

Russia's envoy to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, meanwhile said wars in Europe "rarely start on Wednesdays".

"This may not be a strong enough guarantee, but I can assure you that, as far as Russia is concerned, there will be no attack this coming Wednesday," he added. "Nor will there be any escalation next week or the week after, or next month."

Russia's deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyanskiy, is reported to have quipped that Western leaders should see a doctor for their "paranoia".

Russia has announced that it is pulling troops back from Ukraine's border but Nato - the western military alliance - says it doesn't see any "de-escalation" on the ground, and that in fact, Russia is continuing its military build-up.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60399710

Catfish · 02-16-22, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rockstar

[...] Further I don’t recall anyone here thinking Navalny was a fascist. I don’t think he or anyone here can define what that means anyways. I know I called him a useful idiot [...]

Yes you did, quoting RT media, and you also called Navalny a fascist and a Nazi, just use advanced search and enter Rockstar for author and Navalny for keyword

But let's not split hairs, as you wrote back then Navalny has some skeletons in his closet, which may be true. If this justifies what Russia did and does to him .. well it's ~~Russia~~ Putin after all.

Back on topic re Ukraine there's a lot going on under the bonnet, and we will be the last to know.

Jimbuna · 02-16-22, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

Back on topic re Ukraine there's a lot going on under the bonnet, and we will be the last to know.

Most definitely

Jeff-Groves · 02-16-22, 10:18 AM

Anyone checked what the Las Vegas odds are for Invasion?

Skybird · 02-16-22, 10:49 AM

Stoltenberg and Blinken said today not only has Russia not withdrawn troops, but it has increased the troop levels at the border.

The meeting between Scholz and Putin should have been very cold, it was to be seen, heard and felt during their press conference as well. Both the talks and the lunch lasted shorter than was expected and are typical for Putin's standards, observers said. It seems things went not the way any of the two hoped they would.

02-15-22, 04:13 PM	#618
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,655 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	FOCUS writes: Allegedly, parts of Russian troops are retreating from the Ukrainian border. Does this make an invasion less likely? Harald Kujat, ex-inspector general of the Bundeswehr, calls the maneuver a move by Putin to show up the United States. Shortly before German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, a report caused a worldwide stir. According to Interfax, the first non-governmental news agency in Russia, a partial withdrawal of troops on the Ukrainian border has begun. Is this the beginning of an easing of tensions in the conflict, after signs there had recently been increasingly pointing to war? Or is the danger of a Russian invasion still high? It is still unclear how many troops Putin intends to withdraw from the border. But Harald Kujat, ex-inspector general of the Bundeswehr, has no doubt that this is a move coolly calculated by Putin. "He wants the Americans to be put in the wrong by this. After all, they had claimed a few days ago that the invasion would take place this Wednesday." So, with a partial troop withdrawal, Putin would be giving the U.S. the lie. General Kujat is considered an expert on the relationship between NATO and Russia, which he himself helped shape for a long time - especially from 2002 to 2005 as chairman of the NATO Military Committee. As far as the possible danger of an invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops is concerned, however, he considers international fears to be unfounded. After all, two basic prerequisites would have to be in place for a war: the ability to wage it and win it, as well as the intention to do so. Russia undoubtedly has the capability to wage such a war, Kujat tells FOCUS Online. "But does the country also have the intention to do so? No! And the troop presence on the Ukrainian border is by no means sufficient proof of this," Kujat says. Even U.S. President Joe Biden had confirmed that not long ago. "A capability without a simultaneous intention does not yet result in a threat militarily." That's why he doesn't think much of the "howls of war" on the international stage. Kujat cites three reasons for this. "First, Russia would have to rebuild the country after an invasion that would leave great damage in its wake. Second, there is the danger of a guerrilla war that would drag on for years. And third, the painful losses in the war in Afghanistan are still very present in the Russian population." All of these, Kujat said, are serious reasons militarily, politically, financially and also socially to oppose military intervention. Putin has a clear goal, Kujat says. With the soldiers on the Ukrainian border, he says, the Kremlin chief wants to prevent Ukraine from "becoming an aircraft carrier for NATO." In doing so, he says, the West repeatedly makes the mistake of claiming that each country is free to decide for itself whether it wants to become a member of NATO. "This is all nonsense. Because this decision depends not only on potential member states, but requires the consent of every single NATO state." U.S. President Biden, however, has since made it clear on several occasions that he would never deploy troops to Ukraine, he said. "By doing so, NATO would be importing a potential war with Russia into the alliance states." Which could have disastrous consequences for the entire world - "including the risk of nuclear war." This, in turn, clearly contradicts the condition that new NATO membership must represent a "gain for alliance security," he said. And there is another reason that would speak against Ukraine's NATO membership: the democratic state of the candidate country. After all, the "internal constitution" of each candidate country must be in line with the basic democratic principles of the NATO member states. And this is not the case in Ukraine. Because for years the country should have granted greater rights to Russian minorities, Kujat says. In recent days, it has become apparent that an announcement by NATO that it will refrain from allowing Ukraine to join for the foreseeable future could bring a peaceful solution to the conflict. In 2014, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that Ukraine should not become an "outpost" for either Russia or the West. Kujat: "Ukraine should adopt a consolidated neutrality and grant more autonomy to Russian minorities." But what steps is Putin taking now? Foreign policy expert Thomas Jäger of the University of Cologne is very skeptical in view of the withdrawal announcement. He knows that Putin is probably the most experienced political poker player on the international stage - and considers the information about the alleged withdrawal to be "thin." "We don't know which troop units are involved, where they are withdrawing to, and whether it might be just another tactical maneuver." For Jäger, it is obvious that Putin still wants to keep the pressure up. After all, he says, open warfare is not actually in Putin's interest. The Kremlin chief, he says, wants to tie Ukraine as closely as possible to Russia, to win over the population, perhaps even to install a pro-Russian government. "You can't achieve that with open war. That's why I think the most likely scenario is that Putin will rely on hybrid warfare, sabotaging energy supplies, for example, and using propaganda to create sentiment against the government in Kiev." Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

02-16-22, 05:31 AM	#620
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,905 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	"Russian ambassador to the EU told Die Welt, “As far as Russia is concerned, I can assure you that there will be no attack this Wednesday." “There will be no escalation in the coming week either, or in the week after that, or in the coming month...Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday," Chizhov added, according to DW. Russia will wait for a proper answer from the US to the russian proposal, which has not yet been delivered. When i read what Liz Truss has said (whatever she thinks she has to do with the situation) and this also is the US position, i take it there will be a bit of tension. __________________ >^..^<)))>{ All generalizations are wrong. Last edited by Catfish; 02-16-22 at 06:01 AM.*

02-16-22, 06:07 AM	#622
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,905 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	What a load of hysteria this has been. And what it is probably about: The oft-quoted number of 100,000 troops near to Ukraine may give people the impression that tanks are ready to roll over the border, but this number includes those normally stationed in Russia's many bases in the south of the country, according to the BBC. Why American media was reporting Ukrainian expectations of war for February 16 A translation from American news media seemed to suggest Ukraine was bracing for war on Wednesday, despite weeks of attempts to calm tensions by President Zelensky's government. A sarcastic quip from the former comedian-turned-politician appeared to be the first acceptance from Ukraine that war was imminent. The translation in English was: We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack. His spokesperson later clarified that he had been merely referencing other media reports, but not before the story was ran by numerous news outlets, such as CNN in the US. In reality, the Ukrainian president was joking that Ukraine would hold a national day of celebration to ease fears from an invasion. The Ukrainian economy has been under pressure since western media has continuously ratcheted up the likelihood of conflict. Some US media misreported his comments, losing them in translation. Zelenskyy himself was clear in the speech. The whole address was dedicated to calming panic, not warning people Russia will attack on Wednesday. *Others write that fresh russian troops are advancing to the ukrainian border.* Oh no. Anyway. __________________ >^..^<)))>{ All generalizations are wrong. Last edited by Catfish; 02-16-22 at 09:13 AM.*

02-16-22, 07:02 AM	#623
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,655 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	A cluster of 100,000 armed men is a mob. A setup with 100 Russian-doctrine battle batallion is an army. The Americans wanted to not lose the info and media war again like in 2014, so they warned early and said Wednesday might be the day. That was a mistake, it almost invited the Russiand to score easily at the Americans cost by staging a claimed withdrawel just before Wednesday to make Washington look stupid. NATO says there is no pullback visible so far, and that Russian units are just moving back and then forward again. Also, that the Russians continue to build field hospitals along the border. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 02-16-22 at 07:28 AM.

02-16-22, 08:37 AM	#624
Rockstar Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 11,957 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	A couple of reasons IMO why U.S. media is harping on Russia. I think because COVID is over we need a new boogie man. Second, it also gears up the public towards a confrontation. It’s harder for an adversary to overcome or just walk across a border occupy a land when he’s been demonized and a whole nation is ready for a war. Further I don’t recall anyone here thinking Navalny was a fascist. I don’t think he or anyone here can define what that means anyways. I know I called him a useful idiot and hoped like hell if we were going to do this we could find someone with better credentials than that moron. And I also called out the media narrative the poison could only be made by Putin. When in fact you could buy the book State Secrets from Amazon and get the ingredients. __________________ Guardian of the honey and nuts Let's assume I'm right, it'll save time. Last edited by Rockstar; 02-16-22 at 09:03 AM.

02-16-22, 09:01 AM	#625
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 18,122 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	What I hope is the truth, is not the same as reality. I hope they withdraw the troops all 150000 of them within the next 14 to 21 days. Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

02-16-22, 09:15 AM	#626
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,386 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	Russian officials have been mocking the West over warnings that Moscow could launch an invasion of Ukraine on 16 February - that's today, if you've not looked at your calendar. Ukraine declared a "day of unity" after the date was suggested by US officials and widely reported. "I'd like to ask if US and British sources of disinformation... could publish the schedule of our upcoming invasions for the year. I'd like to plan my holidays," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote in a Facebook post. Russia's envoy to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, meanwhile said wars in Europe "rarely start on Wednesdays". "This may not be a strong enough guarantee, but I can assure you that, as far as Russia is concerned, there will be no attack this coming Wednesday," he added. "Nor will there be any escalation next week or the week after, or next month." Russia's deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyanskiy, is reported to have quipped that Western leaders should see a doctor for their "paranoia". Russia has announced that it is pulling troops back from Ukraine's border but Nato - the western military alliance - says it doesn't see any "de-escalation" on the ground, and that in fact, Russia is continuing its military build-up. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60399710 __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

02-16-22, 10:18 AM	#629
Jeff-Groves Village Idiot Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 5,385 Downloads: 131 Uploads: 0	Anyone checked what the Las Vegas odds are for Invasion?

02-16-22, 10:49 AM	#630
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,655 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	Stoltenberg and Blinken said today not only has Russia not withdrawn troops, but it has increased the troop levels at the border. The meeting between Scholz and Putin should have been very cold, it was to be seen, heard and felt during their press conference as well. Both the talks and the lunch lasted shorter than was expected and are typical for Putin's standards, observers said. It seems things went not the way any of the two hoped they would. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.