Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

For once I was right on spot

'cause I remember having said that Ukrainian could lure them by indicating an offensive in Kherson area but make the main attack elsewhere. Well I said something with they could do a Schwarzkopf maneuver


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ation-campaign

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Can't say I believe this when looking back on the German track record so far.

Berbok on Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine: Situation has changed by 180 degrees. We will help as much as necessary

Germany made a 180-degree change in its position on military aid to Ukraine after the Russian full-scale invasion. Berlin will provide the Ukrainians with weapons as long as necessary.

This was stated by the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Annalena Berbok, at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) forum, Censor.NET informs with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

"We are 150% on the side of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. And we will be with them as long as Ukraine and the Ukrainian people need us," Berbok said.

According to her, until February 24, Germany did not supply weapons to Ukraine, as this could become the basis of an invasion for Russia, but now the situation has changed by 180 degrees.

"We will supply weapons to Ukraine as long as it is necessary," said the head of the German Foreign Ministry. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3366403

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Russia does not give up negotiations with Ukraine, but longer process is delayed, more difficult it will be to reach agreement - Lavrov. VIDEO

The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Serhiy Lavrov, said that Russia is not giving up negotiations with Ukraine.

"The Russian Federation does not abandon negotiations with Ukraine, but the longer the process is delayed, the more difficult it will be to reach an agreement," the Russian minister said. Source: https://censor.net/en/v3366409

[mapuc]

Danish Radio writes:

The events of the past few days in Ukraine are the most significant in the war since Russia withdrew from northern Ukraine on 26 March.

The assessment comes from military analyst at the Defence Academy Anders Puck Nielsen, after Ukrainian forces reportedly recaptured a number of Ukrainian towns in the northeastern Kharkiv region.

Towns which until a few days ago were in Russian hands.

- It is a huge area that the Ukrainians have won back in a matter of days. It seems that the Ukrainians have gained momentum and that the Russians are experiencing some kind of collapse, he says.

And while Anders Puck Nielsen points out that much can change, the latest developments present Russian President Vladimir Putin with big choices if the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues.

In his assessment, Putin has four distinct options:

1. Mobilisation
According to Anders Puck Nielsen, Russia started its "special military operation", as it is called in Russia, on the assumption that it would be easy for Russia to invade Ukraine.

However, it turned out quite quickly that it would not go as expected.

- This means that you are not at all equipped to fight a war like the one we are fighting right now," he says.

That is why Anders Puck Nielsen sees Putin's options for mobilising troops as a logical military step.

- In other words, the mobilisation that perhaps should have been made a long time ago. Then they should start calling up young Russian men for military training and subsequent service in Ukraine.

But even if that might be the most logical thing for Putin to do from a military point of view, it leaves him with a problem of explanation.

- The Russian people are not at all prepared for this to happen. When you have been saying for the last seven months that things are going excellently and according to plan and then suddenly say that you have launched a mobilisation, that will be an admission that you have been wrong," he says

2. Nuclear weapons
As Anders Puck Nielsen sees it, Russia has only one weapon left in its arsenal that it has not yet used.

- That is the nuclear bomb. What makes it a really bad option is that, first of all, it is not at all certain that it will work.

According to the military analyst, this also presents Putin with a number of additional dilemmas.

- It can be hard to know who to throw it at. It could be on the Ukrainian forces, or you could use it as a scare weapon and drop it on some cities. You could also drop it on NATO, says Anders Puck Nielsen.

But again, he points out that this option could have far-reaching consequences for Russia.

- It's pretty unlikely to happen. Putin must expect some kind of response, primarily from the US, because they will react in a way that gives Putin even greater dilemmas to deal with, he says.

3. Reducing the goal
A third option for the Russian President, according to Anders Puck Nielsen, is to reduce the success criteria for a successful "military special operation".

Because if he won't recruit more soldiers from the street, he'll have to make do with the ones he has.

This can be done by reducing the target.

- That would initially be something like giving up some of the areas you are fighting over right now and then focusing on the ones you think are the most important. That could be a military way forward, says Anders Puck Nielsen.

It would be the easiest option for Putin, he says.

- Because the other options would largely threaten Putin's own power in Russia, says Anders Puck Nielsen.

4. Belarus
The last opportunity Anders Puck Nielsen sees is hiding north of Ukraine.

- One could well imagine that Putin could pressure Belarus to open a new front and enter the war, it is also not entirely unthinkable. They've been doing military border exercises for about five months now. You could imagine that something like that could come up," he says.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

My own:

5. Full withdrawal

Putin knows he has lost the war and to save what he has he gives the order to withdraw from entire Ukraine, including Crimea.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Dang, Jim beat me to it.

Still,

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Dang, Jim beat me to it.

Still,

Yeah and I've just deleted my response to you

[ET2SN]

Well, moving forward it begs the question:

How does Russia wiggle out of this debacle?
Can Russia wiggle out of it?

I doubt Putin and Lavrov could hold a press conference saying, "You don't understand, all of this was a practical joke on our Ukrainian brothers..".

Even if Russia foots the bill to clean up everything that was damaged and make a full restitution, why should anyone ever trust them again?

[ET2SN]

One thing about Nukes, you DON'T drop them just outside your own border.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Well, moving forward it begs the question:

How does Russia wiggle out of this debacle?
Can Russia wiggle out of it?

I doubt Putin and Lavrov could hold a press conference saying, "You don't understand, all of this was a practical joke on our Ukrainian brothers..".

Even if Russia foots the bill to clean up everything that was damaged and make a full restitution, why should anyone ever trust them again?

I doubt anyone can answer with an air of confidence. Any answer woold be speculation and guesswork at best.

Originally Posted by ET2SN

One thing about Nukes, you DON'T drop them just outside your own border.

I'm hoping there is a strong enough presence by the military in the background to prevent that happening but honestly can't say tactical nukes and/or chemical weapons won't be used under any circumstances.

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

One thing about Nukes, you DON'T drop them just outside your own border.

Didn't the US detonate several WITHIN their borders?

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Schroeder

Didn't the US detonate several WITHIN their borders?

A long time ago when we had a lot of empty land and a poor understanding of fallout.