Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

An excursion: looking beyond the Ukraine crisis, to see how it is embedded in a greater context. The Ukraine crisis in reality is a crisis by Russia, and Russia poses a crisis for the West because the West itself is in crisis, named "Westlessness" and "learned helplessness" (a term from a psychological concept by Martin Seligman).

https://www.dw.com/en/munich-securit...ses/a-60765510


Meanwhile:
The head of the Rossiya Sevodnya state news agency, Dmitry Kiselyov, spoke in a TV program on Sunday (Feb. 13, 2022) of thousands of civilians being "tortured and cruelly killed" in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass. There is no evidence for his claims.

Following this statement by the Russian agency chief, the TV station showed an interview with a pro-Russian separatist fighter in combat fatigues and machine gun at the ready, standing in a foxhole. The latter claimed to the filming camera crew that Ukrainian nationalists had threatened to kill all people of Russian origin and "hang children from wires." "I won't let that happen, just like everyone else here won't," the militant says. One will lie in wait and the Ukrainian "enemy" will not get past them, he said.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Jeff-Groves

I belong to the one that says Russia pulls their Troops back to make the West look like fools.

And if I'm wrong? It was just a conspiracy theory after all!

"Russia says some troops returning from Ukraine border"
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-60372815

edit: whatever Russia does or does not in Ukraine, Russia will still execute its nuclear triad manouvres firing ballistic and cruise missiles from tomorrow, february 16th to 19th, in the Barents sea and pacific/Ochotsk region. No wonder they chased that sub away.



https://en.topwar.ru/190809-v-rossii...iady-grom.html

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/se...-high-tensions

[Platapus]

There are currently 30 nations in NATO. The Republic of North Macedonia became the latest country to join the Alliance on 27 March 2020.


In order for a country to join NATO, a unanimous acceptance decision from ALL existing NATO countries is necessary. One country can "black ball".



Would all 30 NATO countries agree to admit Ukraine, if doing so will increase tensions in the region?

[Skybird]

Ask the Bulgarians and call it game over. They are the most Russophile people in NATO. At least 50% of them are said to be pro Russia. As many were polled to be against NATO reinforcments to Bulgaria over the current crisis.

Greece, due to its orthodox Christian tradition, also is quite pro Russian.


LaoTse already mentioned that small countries (=weak countries) must adapt to the big blokes around their block: tyrants and powerful kingdoms at their borders that are superior in power to them. That is not fair, that might not be just, but that is how it is: practical life's necessities.

If this conflict should not boil up again and again in the future, a so-called Finlandization of the Ukraine probably would be the best - in the meaning of: the only realistic - option with a certain minimum chance to work (sure of that I am not). However, I think that different to Finland, Russia will never abstain from more or less meddling with Ukraine internal power balances and politics. For Russia accepts Fins to be different than Russians, but Putin denies that there is a separeate ethnic group and people like "Ukrainians", and sees them all as Russians (and Russia's ) anyway. Hiw this Finlandization would work in the very long run, is an open question, therefore. Possible that over the coming two, three, four decades the Ukraine nevertheless would fall to Russia due to internal erosion of resistence to that.



The reported partial withdrawle of trroops I would take wioth caution. They do not report the domejnsion of this withdrawel, and it falls together with Scholz' visit in Moscowe, so it could be a feint to take the wind out of his sails.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Platapus

There are currently 30 nations in NATO. The Republic of North Macedonia became the latest country to join the Alliance on 27 March 2020.


In order for a country to join NATO, a unanimous acceptance decision from ALL existing NATO countries is necessary. One country can "black ball".



Would all 30 NATO countries agree to admit Ukraine, if doing so will increase tensions in the region?

That's a big NO from me.

[Jimbuna]

Russia's defence ministry says some troops positioned on the border with Ukraine are returning to their bases after completing drills.

It raises hopes that tensions could ease but military exercises continue and it's unclear how many units are being withdrawn.

"When we see a withdrawal, we will believe in a de-escalation," Ukraine's foreign minister says.

The head of the Nato defence alliance says he hasn't seen de-escalation yet but that signals from Moscow give some cause for optimism.

The EU says it is willing to discuss Russia's security concerns but warns a key Russian gas pipeline to Germany would "not become operational" in the event of war.

Germany's leader Olaf Scholz is meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow as diplomacy continues.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is hosting an emergency Cobra meeting to discuss the UK's response.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

If this is a genuine withdrawal I think it will have come about from those people in dark corners who are the real controllers of Putin, realising their assets or a fair proportion of them would come under threat.

If the above is true then all that remains is a face-saving agreement to be worked out.

[sublynx]

I wonder if something was promised to Putin. Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO, or Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea given to Russia?

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.", wrote Sun Tzu. But was it the West or Russia that won?

[mapuc]

Russia withdraw troops from the border-De eskalation our news paper write-I say don't hold your breath-They will be substituted with fresh manpower.

A Soldier can be on alert for so many days then he must rest-Fatigue.

Markus

[Skybird]

In the short term, the West may have bought some time.

In the longer run Russia may have won on its strategic objectives.

Many overlook that North Stream 2 is already the second such pipeline, there already is one in place that runs almost parallel to it since many years, its open and its used, and of course Russia installed it as a weapon to bypass and isolate the Ukraine already back then - and probably to push Germany in dependency from Russia. Its clear to see who has the longer breath and perspectives here. Germany it is not - German life lies have been mercielssly exposed and thrown out of the window by Putin, giggling.

For the Russians, the red line was crossed at the latest when NATO invited Georgia and Ukraine to ask for membership talks. That was when the Russians minds went into battle mode. The Georgia war was the result, and a few years later the Crimean annexation was the result, and if the West still thinks it can just act naturally against formulated Russian strategic core interests, then the current situation still could easily lead to an overall war over the Ukraine.

Some things you just do not do. You do not send parachuting UN blue helmets into Tibet. You do not send Russian combat forces and missiles to Cuba or Mexico. You do not set NATO troops up in the Ukraine.

Thats the reality we have to live with, and reality is this way - and no other way at all. It might not be perfect or fair or moral, but its what there is, and there ain't no other reality than this.

[Skybird]

Russian Duma calls on Putin to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.


Or better: Putin told it to call him to do so.

[Jimbuna]

I suspect the latter.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Russian Duma calls on Putin to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.


Or better: Putin told it to call him to do so.

Please explain for me in plain English what this step mean for the ongoing Ukrainian crisis.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Jeff-Groves

I belong to the one that says Russia pulls their Troops back to make the West look like fools.

And if I'm wrong? It was just a conspiracy theory after all!

Our media would never allow a Russian withdrawal to be seen as anything less than a major victory for the west. Putin Blinks First will be the headline.

Also, let’s not forget he pulled the rug right out from under everyone with Crimea. But invading Ukraine? I don’t think there was any intent to invade the entire country. But he may have been testing the waters to see if he could have gotten away with occupying the Donbass.