Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

My greatest concern should Russia and NATO clash and NATO almost certainly getting the upper hand would be Russia turning to tactical nukes.

If NATO does not invade Russia maybe it could be avoided, but we shall see if it even comes to this conflict outside the proxies my guess is if there is a conflict Russia vs NATO it will be in Syria.

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The context is key here gentlemen "the fact they think they have a chance" would be sufficient to tempt them to act.

Whether that would be successful or otherwise I was not referring to.

Having seen Western weapons used against them by third parties, meaning the Ukrainians, and how deadly effective they are, I really don't think they want to see NATO countries in combat against them. If I am reading it right, I think American forces are salivating at the thought and chance to mix it up with Russia.

Tactical nukes are always a danger but Russia also knows the U.S has moved their tactical nuclear weapons into Europe as well. Russia knows that using tactical nukes would certainly lead to an exchange of much larger nuclear weapons. I think those in the military forces in Russia know the U.S means business. I doubt those in Russia's upper military echelon would allow Putin to use them and most likely would result in a coup there. I think Putin knows that too.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Commander Wallace

Having seen Western weapons used against them by third parties, meaning the Ukrainians, and how deadly effective they are, I really don't think they want to see NATO countries in combat against them. If I am reading it right, I think American forces are salivating at the thought and chance to mix it up with Russia.



Tactical nukes are always a danger but Russia also knows the U.S has moved their tactical nuclear weapons into Europe as well. Russia knows that using tactical nukes would certainly lead to an exchange of much larger nuclear weapons. I think those in the military forces in Russia know the U.S means business. I doubt they would allow Putin to use them and most likely would result in a coup there. I think Putin knows that too.

Agree, we have seen in former nuclear crisis the hawks back down after period leader is replaced.

[mapuc]

^ ^^
We have to remember that Putin lives in his own fairytale
And no of his inner circle dare to speak straight.

(This has been said by some among them an expert in psychoanalyst-I think he was)

Markus

[Skybird]

You guys must not be that afraid of nuclear baddaboom NATO vs. Russia.



Again, from the link I already posted earlier today:
https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-folly-of-off-ramps

Putin's power is coterminous with his ability to change the subject on Russian television. He does this all the time. Think about how the war began. Until late February of this year, the entire Russian media was clamoring that an invasion of Ukraine was unthinkable and that all the evidence was just warmongering by the CIA. Russians believed that, or pretended to. Then, once Russia did in fact invade Ukraine, war was presented as inevitable and righteous. Now Russians believe this, or pretend to. In 2015, when Russia's last invasion of Ukraine failed to meet all of its objectives, the Russian media changed the subject from one day to the next from Ukraine to Syria. This is simply how Russia is ruled: invasions and storytelling about invasions. If the invasion doesn't work out, the story changes.
If defeated in reality, Putin will declare victory on television, and Russians will believe him, or pretend that they believe him. He will find a new subject on which to fasten their attention. This is the Kremlin's problem, not ours. These are internal Russian mechanisms in which outside actors are essentially irrelevant. It makes no sense to create an "off-ramp" in the real world, when all Putin needs is an "off-ramp" in his virtual world. It will be built by propagandists from pixels, and we are not needed for that. Indeed, there is something more than a little humiliating in Western leaders offering themselves as unpaid and unneeded interns for Russian television channels.
The odd thing is that Western leaders know all of this, or should. Given plenty of time to reflect after Russia's last invasion of Ukraine in 2014, we have become aware of the primary role that political fiction plays in Russian life. Everyone who matters in public discussions ought to be aware that Putin governs in media rather than reality. Just three months ago, we all just watched as Putin changed the story from "war unthinkable" to "war inevitable." And yet, for some reason, some Western leaders ignore this basic structural fact of Russian politics when they advocate appeasement.

[mapuc]

^ I am worried for what may come if the Russians invasion becomes a fiasco
What Putin may do or not do.

I have decided to listen to the part of me who says no nuke/chemical or biological will be used in the war-not ever.

Markus

[Skybird]

Same link.

Now let's think of what we are asking of the Ukrainians when we speak of conceding Ukrainian territory for the sake of giving Putin an "off-ramp." We are asking the people who are the victims of a genocidal war to comfort the perpetrator. We are expecting Ukrainians, who know that Russian politics is all about fiction, to make sacrifices in the world where their families and friends live and die. We are asking Ukrainians to sentence their own people to ethnic cleansing in order to make life slightly easier for Russian television producers whose genocidal hate speech is one cause of the atrocities. As Ukrainians keep trying to tell us, clichés of "cornering" and "off-ramps" will make the war last longer, by distracting from the simple necessity of Russian defeat.
When we start the story from Putin's psychic needs and run it through our own misunderstanding of Russian politics, we push Ukrainian democracy to the side. Rather than acting like allied democracies, we behave like amateur therapists for a dictator. We are no good at that. We are directing our empathy towards a dictator who will only exploit it to continue a war, and away from a people who must win that war to end it.
Appeasement of Russia distracts us from the people who really are cornered: the Ukrainians. They are facing extermination as a people, and that is why they fight. President Volodymyr Zelens’kyi actually does need a way to end this war, because he does not govern by fiction, because he is an elected leader, and because he feels responsible for his people. Unlike Putin, Zelensky cannot simply change the subject. He has to bring his people along. At this point, Ukrainians by huge majorities believe that the war has to be won, and are unwilling to concede territory. Unlike Putin, Zelens’kyi will have to make a case, referring to what is actually happening on the ground. He therefore really does need help, both to win the war as quickly as possible, and in giving Ukrainians a sense of a post-war future.
All reasonable people want this war to end. That means thinking more about the Ukrainian people, and worrying less about problems that Putin does not in fact have.

Same link.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ I am worried for what may come if the Russians invasion becomes a fiasco
What Putin may do or not do.

I have decided to listen to the part of me who says no nuke/chemical or biological will be used in the war-not ever.

Markus

Putin will declare victory always this kinda dictators always survive it will be like with Stalin when Germany invaded he was away for weeks Russia was without a leader because Stalin feared for his own life but after weeks he was back and took control like nothing was happened, and whole of Russia believed the Great Helmsman, exceptional, glorious chairman Stalin and followed him blindly into dead, their dead Stalin life was never in any danger.

[Dargo]

What we see on the ground Ukrainians resistance is fierce Russian advances spasmodic doesn’t fit the public statements were done for effect and maybe overdone, the intended effect by these statements was on NATO governments to get more aid and on Putin. Would imagine the Ukrainians want him to bleed his army white in the Donbas. Remember, the Ukrainians have talked for a while about draining Russian resource's til Aug. The idea of the Ukrainians suffering the massive casualties people are claiming in the Donbas is hard to square with the fact that they are the ones pressing the Russians back around Kherson.

For instance, say we take the smallest of the large estimates of Ukrainians casualties, 200 dead and 500 wounded a day (700 total). That would have meant since the Popasna faux-breakthrough the Ukrainians should have lost, 21000 killed and wounded. So we are to believe that they have suffered such extreme losses, while all the while rebuffing almost every other Russian attack in the Donbas, and at the same time built up the forces needed to attack Kherson. Reliable sources from yesterday have the Ukrainians making regular advances in this theater, which is of vital importance as well. Basically, the Ukrainians are fewer than 15kms from Kherson. Find it hard to imagine that the Ukrainian army in the Donbas has been battered into submission in the way that the media has portrayed, and yet has beaten back almost all Russian attacks and built up the force to attack Kherson.

[mapuc]

Have you ever seen an oil depot being hit by a missile ?

Some hours ago an oil depot in Dnipro was hit by some missiles.

For a fraction of a second the cam became white

Edit
Soldiers of the Belarusian Regiment named after Kastus Kalinouski are on the front line in Severodonetsk. In particular, the Volat battalion is taking part in the operation.

They are fighting together with the Ukrainians.

End edit

Markus

[Dargo]

Romania restarting now mass production of 152 mm shells (Soviet caliber) & artillery barrels to support Ukraine defense.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Romania restarting now mass production of 152 mm shells (Soviet caliber) & artillery barrels to support Ukraine defense.

Even Bulgaria has done this restartet their production of these 152 mm

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Even Bulgaria has done this restartet their production of these 152 mm

Markus

The United States asked Bulgaria and Romania to restart production Bulgaria and Romania agreed Romania already sends ammo 152 and 122 to Ukraine for some time, but just doesn't make it public.

[Dargo]

The war in Ukraine could last for years, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said in the German weekly Bild am Sonntag. He added that when modern weapons are delivered to Ukrainian troops, the chances of liberating the Donbas region from the Russians are increased.

"We should prepare ourselves that it may take years. We must not give up our support to Ukraine," he says. "Not even when the costs are rising, not only the costs of military support, but also with rising food and energy prices." A NATO summit later this month in Madrid is expected to agree on a package of support to help Ukraine transition from using old Soviet-era weapons to standard NATO equipment, Stoltenberg said earlier this week.

[Gerald]

This brutal invasion into Ukraina was a careful step right in time for Putin. I believe he never have done that "if" Trump has his hands on the helm. Biden administration will not use nuke me think", and on the other side we have Stoltenberg who act like a puppet.