Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Macronman's rhetoric has changed in one maybe not irrelevant point. He now says "Ukraine must win." Whether he means it is something different. That formulation, not with a comma but a period at the end, in principle leaves no room for interpretations.

His verbal choice is more than what his German pendant so far dares to speak out. Bubble-Olaf so far (until this visit) did not dare to say more than "Ukraine must not lose and Russia must not win." Hoping for an Ukrainian victory, sounds differently.

The expectations confronting the German are high, since he boasted weeks ago that he would not go to Kyiv only for a photo shooting, but only would go there if something substantial is on the table. Problem is his view and the global public's perception of what qualifies as "substantial" may be lightyear apart. Maybe he sees Draghi's plan as "substantial". See at the end.

Thats scepticism is justified. Bubble-Olaf recently shone with claims that Germany sends more military contributions than anyone else except the US. A simple numerical analysis however shows easily how absolutely wrong that claim is both on material items, and even money.

The indiustry has readied 20+ Marders for being sent to Ukraine, immediately, and already since weeks. It did it by own initiative. Since then the chancelor's office rejects to make a decision of using them for anything, Ringtausch or delivery to Ukraine. It completely blocks everything. Also, the claim was made that there is a NATO policy to not send heavy armoured vehicles to Ukraine. Something that was not confirmed by a single other NATO country, and some of them, and the US, acting as if such an agreement were not in place anyway. The Ukraine has received dozens, up to 200 MBTs, without any problem by NATO. Why Germany is worried about heavy weapons like Leopard-1 tanks and Marders but not about heavy weapons like 3 MARS-II and some Gepard tanks, probably forever will remain its secret.

The Italian even brought a full plan for Ukrainian capitulation that he unveiled weeks ago to other Europeans. He wants the Ukrainians to see that their nation is not as important as is fighting inflation in the Eurozone and keeping Italy with its monumental national deficit afloat.



Just that inflation already had started to explode BEFORE the Russians invaded.

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung with a 8-point analysis of the absic determinants of the current war situation.

--------------


In Russia's war of attrition against Ukraine, individual territorial gains are not decisive

Ukraine has enough soldiers, but not enough weapons. With Russia, it's the other way around. Both states are playing for time - a calculation in which only one side can win.

Moscow's generals have already faced a hostile army in eastern Ukraine: In August 1943, the Soviet Union launched a major offensive that has gone down in history as the "Donbass Operation." The goal was to drive Hitler's German troops out of the Donets Basin, which was economically important because of its coal industry. The flashback reveals remarkable parallels with the present. Towns like Lisitschansk, Bachmut or Isjum, which today appear in the news about Russia's invasion, were already then the scenes of significant battles. The Donets River formed the frontline over a length of several hundred kilometers - almost exactly as it does today.

But the differences are also striking. Quite apart from the fact that today Moscow's forces act as invaders, it was a completely different battle. Russia and Ukraine are currently conducting their ground operations in the Donbass with less than 100,000 troops each. The Red Army and the German Army Group South deployed many times that number in 1943. Moreover, operations at that time proceeded at an astonishing pace: within just four weeks, Soviet troops conquered the entire Donbass.

By comparison, today's fronts are shifting only at a snail's pace. To be sure, Russia tends to have the upper hand and is steadily gaining terrain. This is threatening and frustrating for Ukraine, but at the same time it must be viewed in the right proportions. Before the war, the Kremlin controlled a third of the Donbass region with the help of puppet regimes in the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Thanks to the conquests since February 24, it is now a good three-quarters.

Over the past month, however, only about 1,000 square kilometers have been added. That is roughly equivalent to the area of the canton of Thurgau or slightly more than the city of Berlin. At this rate, Russia would have to continue fighting for another year to achieve its declared war goal, the complete capture of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Even then, it would be far from subduing Ukraine and establishing a pro-Russian government in Kiev.

However, it is not possible to make a serious forecast based on the developments of the past few weeks. Both an acceleration of the Russian advances and a freezing of the fronts are conceivable. For the time being, the scenario of large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensives seems less likely. Kiev's troops have tried this at various sections since May, but are now stuck.

Military experts have long said that the Russian campaign has turned into a war of attrition. This refers to the strategy of wearing down the enemy. The continuous loss of troops and material is intended to bring him to exhaustion. But which side has the better cards? Eight aspects deserve special mention:

1. The time factor plays a decisive role

In Tolstoy's epic War and Peace - a classic that should be familiar to both Russian and Ukrainian generals - the commander Kutuzov utters a famous phrase: "Patience and time, these are my two strongest fighters." This guiding principle is applied in the fight against Napoleon, whose Russian campaign fails not in great field battles but in a war of attrition lasting for months.

Both warring parties currently believe that time is on their side. Russia has radically changed its tactics compared to the first phase of the war. Whereas the Kremlin initially embraced the idea of a blitzkrieg and some officers even packed their parade uniforms in order to be appropriately dressed for the expected triumphal march through Kiev, the Russians are now proceeding with more deliberation. They no longer launch uncoordinated infantry advances as in the Battle of Kiev, where they all too often bounced off ambush counterattacks.

Rather, they seek to use artillery to systematically destroy Ukrainian positions before advancing. President Putin recently compared this method to cracking nuts; in his public appearances, he gives the appearance of being under no time pressure.

But the Ukrainians also attach great importance to the time factor. Since they have fewer resources, every week they hold off the invaders is a gain for them. Their calculation is to resist long enough for military losses, international sanctions and increasing arms supplies from the West to force the Kremlin to relent.

2. Each side seeks attrition in its own way

Russia is refraining from large-scale operations in the Donbass due to a lack of combat troops. Instead, it is trying to flank the Ukrainians with smaller advances or to force them to retreat by threatening encirclement. The most important such operation at present is the targeted encirclement of the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk conurbation. Encirclement would result in the destruction of four to five Ukrainian brigades. However, the defenders can still keep open a corridor 20 kilometers wide.

The weaker-armed Ukrainians rely on a different method to wear down the enemy. They can make up for their inferiority most easily in densely populated areas. In urban combat, according to a rough rule of thumb, an attacker is forced to use at least five times his strength in relation to the defenders.

This explains why the Ukrainians have not yet abandoned the city of Severodonetsk. It is no longer strategically important, and on this side of the Donets, in the higher-lying Lisichansk, they could retreat to more tenable positions in the longer term. But the Ukrainian leadership obviously wants to force the attackers in Severodonetsk to engage in a battle of attrition. The area of the fertilizer factory there, where several hundred Ukrainians have entrenched themselves, offers ideal conditions for this. In order to make it more difficult for them to obtain supplies, the Russians have now destroyed the last bridge over the river. However, this also impedes a later Russian advance to the west.
Artillery duels dominate the fighting

3. Artillery duels dominate the battlefield

The most important weapon in the Donbass operation is artillery. Russian self-propelled howitzers and especially Grad, Uragan and Smerch multiple rocket launchers enable the attackers to rain down enormous amounts of shells and rockets on Ukrainian positions. Prorussian channels regularly publish video footage of the use of such weapons.

The images of the green fields in the Donbass, littered with countless bullet holes like pockmarks, also testify to the destructive power of artillery. The Ukrainians, for their part, counter these attacks with artillery, with what is known as counter-battery fire. This is because they no longer have a significant air force that could bombard Russia's guns from the air.

However, it is an unequal fight: according to the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, General Valery Saluzhni, Russia has a tenfold superiority in artillery in the Lisichansk area. This information cannot be verified, but it is certain that since the transition to a war of position in the Donbass, the Ukrainians have suffered significantly more casualties than at the beginning of the war.

4. Both sides suffer high losses

Kiev has been complaining about a high blood toll in a strikingly clear way lately. President Selensky spoke in early June of 60 to 100 casualties per day and about 500 wounded; some of his advisers cite even higher figures. The range of Russian casualties is unknown. By all appearances, they are also serious. This is indicated by reports from participants in the war and the fact that Russia itself is throwing forcibly recruited residents of the occupied territories into the fight.

Unlike Moscow, the separatist republic of Donetsk regularly publishes casualty figures. According to them, more than 2000 Donetsk military personnel have been killed and 8500 wounded in the war so far. Of the armed forces of this separatist republic, estimated at 20,000 men, this would mean that half would have been lost. Their commander, Russian-born Major General Roman Kutuzov, was also killed recently while visiting the front.

Both sides' losses of war materiel are also substantial. The Oryx analysis group, for example, has documented the loss of 774 Russian tanks, 180 since early May alone. The latter number would be enough to equip 18 tactical battalion groups, of which Russia reportedly still has about 100 in service in Ukraine. Astonishment was recently caused by the fact that the Russian military, in its material shortage, took vintage T-62 tanks out of its depots and moved them to Ukraine. They date back to the 1960s and are extremely vulnerable to enemy anti-tank missiles.

5. The battle of attrition has a demoralizing effect

Combat morale is considered much higher on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian, but several factors seem to be causing frustration. To Western war reporters, Ukrainian infantrymen complain that they are powerless in ranged artillery battles and hardly ever get to see the enemy. The lack of weapons is also an oft-heard complaint.

On both sides, there are reports of criticism of the military leadership, up to and including open mutiny. For example, a video of a group of Ukrainian soldiers who feel abused as cannon fodder and refuse to return to the front with the words "We don't want to die" is circulating on the Internet.

Conversely, Ukrainian intelligence presented the alleged recording of an intercepted telephone conversation in which a Russian soldier told his wife about the mutiny of his unit. Since only one-third of his battalion group was still operational, all of them had refused to continue fighting. In response, a general had threatened them and fired shots in the air, but to no avail. At last, the commander had to leave the place in flight. There is no confirmation of this incident from an independent source.

6. Propaganda also counts as weaponry

Because the high number of casualties can weaken fighting morale and fuel doubts about military strategy, it is not only the respective arsenals that matter in a war of attrition. Both sides are also active on the information front. President Selensky visited the frontline city of Lisichansk last week, signaling that he does not consider it lost. It was his first trip this far east of the country since the war began, and it came with risks. In doing so, he countered the criticism voiced in some units that the politicians in Kiev live in a world of their own.

Shortly thereafter, Putin, the Kremlin's ruler, also set a new propagandistic tone: he compared the military intervention in Ukraine to the Great Northern War waged by Peter the Great beginning in 1700. In doing so, he emphasized that Tsar Peter "rightfully" reclaimed Russian land and took 21 years to do so. It was a clear indication to his own people of the historical scope of the ongoing "special operation" and the need to have staying power.

7. Stalling the enemy's economy

No country can wage war in the longer term without a sufficient economic base. Accordingly, part of the attritional struggle is to weaken the enemy's economy. Russia is doing this very deliberately by destroying industrial plants and cutting off Ukrainian ports, which are vital for exports.

Ukraine's hands are tied in this regard. Its few cross-border attacks do little damage. Russia's economy can only be weakened by foreign sanctions. So far, this has not succeeded to any decisive degree. To be sure, the fact that Moscow has declared parts of its financial statistics secret points to upheavals in the state budget. But at least revenues from oil and gas exports continue to bubble up thanks to higher prices: in May, they amounted to about $840 million per day, which is even slightly higher than at the beginning of the year.

8. The West plays a key role

Ukraine is thus crucially dependent on foreign aid. The West has it in its hands to press Russia with economic sanctions and to supply Kiev with the necessary weapons for its defensive struggle. Provided these two conditions are met, Ukraine has a good chance of military success. After all, it has a large reservoir of motivated servicemen and women.

But the future of foreign aid remains uncertain, as the West is also in a kind of attrition battle. Putin calculates with good reason that solidarity with Ukraine will erode and priorities in capitals from Berlin to Washington will change. Record high inflation and fears of an imminent recession are wearing on the nerves of responsible politicians. The popularity of U.S. President Biden has reached a low point - one consequence of the dramatic boom in gasoline prices, among others.

In Western Europe, on the other hand, the temptation to avoid a confrontation with Russia and to horse-trade with Putin over the heads of the Ukrainians has never disappeared. France's President Macron is sending signals in this direction with his admonition that Putin should not be humiliated. He and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz continue to put the brakes on the supply of heavy weapons. It is foreseeable that the longer the war lasts, the louder the calls for territorial concessions from Kiev will become.


No wonder, the Ukrainians' requests are becoming more and more insistent. Presidential advisor Mikhailo Podolyak, for example, put the need for multiple rocket launchers at 300 - but only eleven of these modern Western systems have been pledged. The Ukrainian military also recently sounded the alarm, saying it was running out of ammunition for the Soviet-origin artillery weapons that have been used primarily up to now. The course of the war will depend crucially on the willingness of the West to help Ukraine convert to NATO weapons systems and to supply it with ammunition.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Rockstar]

I skimmed this from the comments section on censor.net.

https://censor-net.translate.goog/ua..._x_tr_pto=wapp

“Not so. I have schnapps and I PROMISE I'll pour it for you soon”

“In about 2-3 weeks.”

“If the partners provide the appropriate glasses from which to drink schnapps”

“And certified according to EU standards.”

(Hat tip: Mykola Trofimenko, Vladimir Kindrat, Vitaliy Glushko )

[Skybird]

The fascist ambassador to the EU threatens with stopping all gas delivery via Nordstream 1.

Has anyone really assumed that Russia would endlessly not react to the Europeans dancing on its nose with their sanction attempts? They can strike back. And they do it. And they earn more money with it than before the prices went up.

These European sanction attempts will never work. Too little, too weak, too indifferent, too leate. Europe is weak because it depends on Russia, still, and that is not to change any time soon.

And when you allow to slip into such a huge dependency, then you end up sitting shivering between a rock and a hard place. Don't complain, we voluntarily sought that place and settled down there, nobody forced us. And now we are impotent to do needed actions.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I hold my breath in excitement...

Me too...it wouldn't surprise me if the event is cancelled.

[Jimbuna]

France's President Macron says European leaders - who are visiting Kyiv - are supportive of Ukraine gaining "immediate" candidate status to join the EU

Macron, Germany's Olaf Scholz and Italy's Mario Draghi were earlier welcomed to the Presidential Palace in Kyiv by President Zelensky.

Zelensky is urging the European leaders to hit Russia with more sanctions - and says more weapons will mean quicker liberation of territory.

Earlier, the EU leaders inspected war damage on a visit to the town of Irpin which Russian troops occupied at the war's start.

Dmitry Medvedev, a senior Kremlin figure, mocks the visit, saying "fans of frogs, liverwurst and spaghetti" love going to Kyiv with "zero use"

Meanwhile, 10,000 civilians are trapped in the embattled eastern city of Severodonetsk, a reginal governor says.

[Jimbuna]

We've been hearing from Ukraine's president and the leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Romania who've been in Kyiv for talks.

Here's what we learned from their joint press conference:

The leaders said they support Ukraine's bid to join the European Union, and the country should be given immediate candidate status.

Chancellor Scholz of Germany said Ukraine and Moldova belonged in the European family - but would still have to meet the criteria for accession.

Scholz also promised that Germany would continue to support Kyiv financially and militarily as long as it needed.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that in their fight against Russia's invasion, the Ukrainian people were defending the values of democracy and freedom that underpin the European project.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Ukraine could count on its allies for support. He also said some sort of communication channel was needed with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia's invasion was an attack on all of Europe - and only united action could stop it. He also said the leaders' visit showed Ukraine was not alone in its struggle.

The leaders also said more weapons were being sent to Ukraine, including six more long-range Ceasar guns from France.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Gazprom cuts supply to Germany even further, 'possibly shutting down completely'

The Russian gas company Gazprom today further reduced the gas supply to Germany, so that now only 40 percent of the normal amount is coming in through the important pipeline Nord Stream 1. Yesterday, the supply had already been reduced to around 60 percent. As a result, the Dutch market price for gas, which is considered standard in Europe, rose by 25 percent. Gazprom tells the Russian news agency RIA that the pipeline may close down completely, without mentioning a deadline.

Gazprom attributes the scaling back of the supply to the absence of essential equipment from Siemens, which was supposed to return from a maintenance job in Canada. Due to sanctions, that is not possible now. According to the German government, this is an occasional argument, and Russia wants to scare European countries with this action and further push up the price of gas. Energy companies from Italy, the Czech Republic and Austria also say they are getting less gas from Russia today than agreed.

The head of Germany's Bundesnetzagentur, the national organization responsible for managing energy flows, says he is concerned about the Russian actions. "This could make our situation considerably worse. We will get through the summer, now that the heating season is over. But it's very important that we completely fill up the stocks now."

[Dargo]

French diplomat: 'Territory of Ukraine must be restored, Crimea must also be returned'

The French government wants Ukraine to achieve a victory over Russia, with the country's "territorial integrity" restored. That includes Crimea, a French diplomatic source tells Reuters news agency. That Ukrainian peninsula was taken by Russia in 2014. According to the source, it is up to Ukrainian President Zelensky to determine what he sees as a military victory, and France will help.

French President Macron arrived in Kiev this morning to meet with Zelensky. "This is an important moment, it is a message of unity addressed to the Ukrainians," Macron said as he left the train. Macron has sometimes evoked angry reactions in Kiev in recent months, such as with his claim that Russia should not be "humiliated" and his emphasis on continued diplomacy with Russia.

[Dargo]

Two U.S. veterans who fought along in Ukraine are missing. They are both from the state of Alabama.

Relatives of Andy Tai Ngoc Huynh (27) have not heard from him since June 8. At that time he was in the region of Kharkov, not far from the Russian border. Alexander Drueke (39) was in his company. His relatives are also no longer getting in touch with him.

The U.S. State Department is investigating reports that Russian troops or pro-Russian rebels have taken two Americans as prisoners of war. If so, these are the first Americans captured since the war began in late February.

[Dargo]

Germany and France are ready to admit Ukraine to the European Union as a candidate member. Chancellor Scholz and President Macron said this after a meeting with President Zelensky in Kiev, which was also attended by Italian Prime Minister Draghi and Romanian President Iohannis.

"My colleagues and I came to Kiev today with a clear message: Ukraine belongs to the European family," Scholz said. Macron said all four countries favored granting Ukraine candidate membership "immediately." Draghi said that Zelensky understood that candidate membership is a pathway; a route that will require major reforms in Ukrainian society.

The European Commission is expected to propose tomorrow that Ukraine be granted candidate status. EU government leaders will then discuss it next week.

Scholz made no concrete commitments on arms deliveries, something Ukraine has repeatedly and insistently called for. He only wanted to say that Germany is supplying weapons and will continue to do so as long as Ukraine needs them. Zelensky said that Germany is also supplying the weapons desired by Ukraine.