Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

The BBC has been allowed rare access to the military nerve centre where Western powers are coordinating efforts to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

In the attic of an austere US military barracks in the German city of Stuttgart, dozens of military personnel from 26 nations are working round the clock to deliver weapons to Ukraine.

From this room, Western allies have already helped deliver nearly $8bn (£6.6bn) worth of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine's armed forces. That's 66,000 tonnes - the equivalent of 5,000 London double-decker buses, as one British officer worked out.

Most of what happens at Patch Barracks is highly classified. We are asked to leave all electronic devices behind and we are not allowed to film or talk to the Ukrainians who are part of the International Donors Coordination Cell (IDCC).

Military personnel from dozens of countries bash the phones and pore over computer screens. They include a small team from Ukraine, led by a three-star general. At the start of each day he sets out what his country needs. The situation in the Donbas appears increasingly bleak, but here in Stuttgart there's more a sense of urgency than panic.

Around one set of desks a team is tasked with locating supplies. Sometimes they'll find a nation willing to provide weapons, but will then have to track another country for the right ammunition or the means to transport them. They've now developed a database where the Ukrainians can list their priorities. Donor nations can access that information and decide what they're willing and able to supply.

Brig Chris King, the senior British officer, says that military aid is being delivered by air, road, rail and sea and to multiple locations "in order to ensure we don't have any single points of failure".

He says that Russia has tried to step up its attacks on supply lines but there's been no "significant" interruption to their delivery.

I ask if any supplies have been hit.

"Yes, I presume so," he replies.

The task of moving the weapons and ammunition across the border is left to the Ukrainians themselves, says Rear Adm Duke Heinz, the senior US commander at the IDCC.

"In Poland and the other countries, the Ukrainians come and get it - so they're the ones who determine how it gets across the border." Once the weapons cross the border, they can arrive at the front line "within 48 hours".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61816337

[mapuc]

Putin to give big speech June 17, speak to media

President Vladimir Putin will give a major speech on Friday focusing on the international economic situation and Russia's tasks in the near future, Interfax news agency cited Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov as saying.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...te-2022-06-14/

Markus

[Rockstar]

Ukraine's victory over Russia will be ensured by two countries - American political scientist

https://apostrophe-ua.translate.goog..._x_tr_pto=wapp

As for the military aspect, the necessary weapons for your victory will be. At 300 km it will beat or at 70 - it does not matter. Today it is important for you to get 70 km to free your territory, you do not have the task of attacking Russia. As you become stronger, the nature of the support of the Western allies will also change.

- Regarding support, Scholz promised Ukraine equipment, and then it turned out that it was not on the balance sheet in the Ministry of Defense. Macron, on the other hand, constantly conducts telephone conversations with Putin, but there are no results from them. Is this policy of the leaders of Germany and France logical for you?

– Of course, it is logical. As they say, a cowardly friend is worse than an enemy. It was the French and Germans who forced you to sign the Minsk agreements in 2014. Bypassing the embargo, which they themselves adopted, they issued weapons worth 270 million euros to the same Russia, which is now working against you.

It's one thing what they say and what they do - that's how they are arranged. Another thing is that you should clearly know that you should not count on them. You know exactly who is on the train with you: the USA, Great Britain and New Europe - Poland, the Baltic countries. But they don't have those options. And the United States and Great Britain are two countries that can easily ensure your victory precisely in the military component. In principle, ** they are also very powerful in another area - diplomacy and information

** and according to the movie The Good Shepard the Brits taught us everything we know.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Putin to give big speech June 17, speak to media



https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...te-2022-06-14/

Markus

I hold my breath in excitement...

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Ukraine's victory over Russia will be ensured by two countries - American political scientist

https://apostrophe-ua.translate.goog..._x_tr_pto=wapp



** and according to the movie The Good Shepard the Brits taught us everything we know.

True. Me too says that you should not depend on the Germans and French, they both play a double game. And Italy. Thats why I said that the prospect that Macronman, Bubble-Olaf and Verbrecherdraghi visit Kyiv together looks like a threat and that they maybe better do not even let them in.

[Skybird]

Germany alters its committment (=reduces) to deliver HIMARS (MARS II) systems. Instead of delivering 4 it now only plans to send 3.

The UK said it will also send 3, the US 4.


While "several hundred missiles" also will be delivered (so say the germans for their three systems), these reserves will be eaten up fast.

[Skybird]

"Are you serious? Bicycle transport is possible, but heavy weapons are not...?"

Is Scholz going to Kyiv without luggage after all?

[Skybird]

The Russian energy company Gazprom is again reducing the volume of gas supplied to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 Baltic Sea pipeline. As of Thursday morning, only a maximum of 67 million cubic meters will be pumped through the pipeline each day, Gazprom announced on Wednesday afternoon.

Once again, the Russian state-owned company justified this step with delays in repair work. Therefore, it said, another gas compression plant had to be shut down. The gas wholesale price increased significantly.

On Tuesday, Gazprom had already announced the reduction of the previously planned daily volume of 167 million by about 40 percent to 100 million cubic meters of gas per day and referred to delays in the repair of gas compressors.

The power engineering group Siemens Energy had then announced that a gas turbine that had been overhauled in Canada could not currently be shipped back from Montréal due to the Russian sanctions. The new reduction to 67 million cubic meters means a throttling by around 60 percent within two days.

According to the assessment of German Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), Russia wants to stir up trouble with the supply cuts. "The Russian side's justification is simply pretextual. It is obviously a strategy to unsettle people and drive up prices," said the Green politician in Berlin.

Westfälische Nachrichten

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Dargo]

The Defense Commander of Severodonetsk takes into account that Russian forces are bad at street fighting, they decided to allow Russian forces to enter the city. Russian forces have bigger numbers of people, artillery, and the opportunity to use aviation in that direction. So, the Ukrainian commander decided to draw Russian troops into the city and drag them into heavy street combat. Ukrainian Armed Forces in Severodonetsk has an advantage in knowledge of the terrain, prepared positions, and also prepared stocks of everything needed for a good and long fight. Thanks to that decision, the Ukrainian Armed Forces leveled the Russian superiority in artillery and aircraft. The situation is similar to Friedrich Paulus' troops in Stalingrad. Paulus's troops were not ready for heavy street fighting and were unable to gain an advantage in artillery and aircraft.

What will happen if Russia starts to gather maximum forces to complete the capture of the Severodonetsk city and the Luhansk region accordingly? Such a scenario will weaken other parts of the Russian front and will lead to local counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Currently, Russia moved its best forces to Severodonetsk and eliminating most of them will be great pros for the future Ukrainian offensive. Notice how the situation on all front lines changes with every new day of the fight for Severodonetsk(East of Ukraine). 11 days ago, a lot of "experts" predicted that Ukraine's army will just retreat from Severodonetsk after Russian forces entered the city. Russian forces still fighting in the city and loses on other fronts terrain in a couple of weeks they can forget Odessa and water supply to Crimea is than in danger again.

[Dargo]

Putin: “We are driven by destiny to re-conquer our own territory in Ukraine”

Medvedev: “Ukraine will not be on the map in 2 years”

Pope: “It is possible Ukraine provoked Russia & could’ve avoided this”

What the frell is wrong with leaders?

[August]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I read three widely ranging military assessment by a German and an american and an Australian general.

These the same ones that told you Russia would take Ukraine in 3 days?

[ET2SN]

It feels like a good time to post this.

When you believe nothing, its easy to believe anything.

[Skybird]

The trio infernale is on its way to Kyiv, media report.

These three, France, germany, Italy, are the dionant Wetsenr powers tryint to push Ukriane to again give land for "peace". Because all three of them refuse to wake up to reality.

Those pushing Ukraine to concede territory need to listen to Putin’s recent words. The Russian president's naked ambition is now clear to see, even if some in the West want to remain blind to it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinio...cary-rcna33344


Even worse are the hate-dripping tirades of Medwedev. As bad as Goebbels.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

It feels like a good time to post this.

When you believe nothing, its easy to believe anything.

Just Believe.

[Skybird]

Currently, evertyhing turns against the Ukraine. As things stand today, this day, it looses. And a reconquering of the whole Donbass imo is completely unrealistic with current wepaon deöliveries, so is the reconquering of the Crimea. The Russians cna affor dhigh losses. And they are superior in number. Putin moved forkm attemtpoed Blitzkrieg as a tactic to patient war of attrotion: and Ukraione, depsite cuasing the Russians higher losses, bleeds out. Not nicely played by the the Russians - but very clever. They play not really good but brutal- but still good enough

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FOCUS writes:

The focus of attention has shifted from the war in Ukraine to the consequences of the war: inflation, rising food prices, fuel profiteering. Germany is now experiencing the "moment of fatigue" that Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck warned about - much to Vladimir Putin's delight.

It's bad news for Ukraine: three-quarters of Germans don't believe Ukraine will win militarily. Two-thirds think that only a negotiated solution can end the Ukraine war. And four-fifths even think it is right to continue talking to the aggressor Vladimir Putin. In other words, according to the Forsa pollsters, a clear majority of Germans support Chancellor Olaf Scholz's hesitant course in the Ukraine war.

The scenario that top Greens Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck warned about is now happening - Germans are growing tired of this war. Saying "tired of war" is politically difficult because Germany is not at war, something the chancellor also wanted to avoid from day one.
Putin's Ukraine war: Now Germany is experiencing the "moment of fatigue"

The foreign minister had recently warned - in English - of a "moment of fatigue. The Minister of Economics of a "dramatic increase in heating costs" and the consequences for the mood in the country in the fall. In eastern Germany, the mood is once again significantly more critical of Ukraine than in the west.

According to Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk radio, more than half of the population there believe Germany is interfering too much in the Ukraine war, and 70 percent are against the delivery of heavy weapons. Figures that were confirmed by the Allensbach Institute.

It is no wonder if the parties Die Linke and the AfD, which are strong in the east, are stirring up sentiment against Germany's support for Ukraine - they represent what a majority in eastern Germany thinks. For weeks, Johannes Varwick, a historian from Halle, Germany, has been making a public appearance with assessments critical of Ukraine. Now the professor said on Maischberger that for Ukraine this war is "lost anyway."
The focus of attention has shifted from the war to the consequences of the war - to Putin's delight.

Moods change - and that is precisely why they are a weapon of war. The focus of attention in the West, including in Germany, has long since shifted from the war to the consequences of the war - record fuel and food prices and the impending utility bills in the fall that will make housing drastically more expensive.

And the latest news is likely to darken the mood further - to the delight of Vladimir Putin, the aggressor. There is still not enough gas for the winter, the Ministry of Economy knows. Which means two things: there is a threat of shortages with potentially drastic economic dislocations. German industry warns of this pretty much every day. And prices for the increasingly scarce commodity will continue to rise.

In addition, Putin has adjusted his war strategy. Not only is his soldiery now concentrating on the east, conquering the Donbass region city by city. Most importantly, he has turned the initial "blitzkrieg" into a war of position or attrition.

Putin has slowed the war, so much so that it would take him 100 years from now to completely conquer Ukraine. That's the figure Potsdam military historian Sönke Neitzel put out there Wednesday.

So in terms of sentiment, it looks like this: Because of the war-related inflation, Germans are worried about their money, not only about their prosperity, but also about whether they will have enough at the end of the month. Because of the start of the Corona summer (the next wave was not expected until the fall), Germans are increasingly worried about their health - whereby the worries and the simultaneous apparent carelessness relate to each other like communicating tubes.

And finally: Fewer and fewer people still want to know exactly what is happening in Ukraine - which is understandable in view of the war atrocities inflicted by the Russians. But exactly the psychological effect that Baerbock and Habeck warned about has set in - exhaustion is preparing to set in.

Then there is the communication of the Ukrainian government, which wants to make the West, Germany in particular, feel guilty in order to achieve more and faster arms deliveries. One can understand Selenskyj, especially if one looks at the photos on social media of the young men between 18 and 25, so hopeful and thirsty for life just a short time ago, who are now being slaughtered like flies.

And yet: The constant exhortations reinforce the exhaustion in the West. Combined with the war aims that Selenskyj has since announced, such as the reconquest of Crimea, the increasingly distanced mood toward Ukraine is likely to intensify once again.

Selenskyj finds himself in an almost unresolvable dilemma: If he remains silent, the war in his country will disappear from the public eye. If he talks, there is the threat of the exhaustion effect that Ukraine's president himself described worryingly (at the World Economic Forum in Davos) as "nose full."

As if all this were not enough, the sanctions have so far not caused Putin to back down from his war. This is also due to the inconsistency of the West. In the first 100 days of the war, Russia collected a total of 93 billion euros for raw materials exports - 57 billion of which came from European countries, writes Christian Neef, a longtime expert on Eastern Europe, on Twitter.

Germany's unilateral dependence on Russian gas, due to a large coalition of industrial companies and German chancellors, is still indirectly financing Russia's war. It will continue to do so for a while.

At any rate, that is the mood in which Olaf Scholz is leaving for Ukraine - probably on Thursday. For obvious security reasons, the date and itinerary are not confirmed. Scholz's travel partner, French President Emmanuel Macron, is in any case already in the region.

From Romania, the latter recommended a negotiated settlement to his Ukrainian presidential counterpart, something that Selenskyj flatly rejects and will probably continue to reject because Ukraine's situation is currently deteriorating militarily.

A peace that is not a Russian "dictatorial peace," as Selenskyj knows only too well, will only be possible when Russia is on the brink of military defeat. And that is not what it looks like - especially since conquests, or more precisely: reconquests, are something completely different from "merely" defending a territory. Historian Neitzel, who is anything but a Russia expert, calls the reconquest of the Donbass alone "completely unrealistic.

Conclusion: Just at the moment when Ukraine is suffering the greatest casualties, the mood in the West is turning toward "nose to the grindstone." Ukraine must be glad that there are no presidential or parliamentary elections in the West, especially in Germany and France.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


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The war of material and attririuton the ukraine, I fear, cannot win on the long run, and this is supported by the fact that the Russians make small, slow, but constant progreess and adcvanes since four weeks now.

If there ever were a chance to win on the long run, then only by really huge material support by the West, and the US is the one who tried this. But the Western and Central Europeans are wavering from beginning on, are hesitent, fearful, undetermined. They wasted precious time - time that the Ukraine did not have.

I think it is now up to the Ukrainians to reinvent the way they fight, like the Russians have adapted, so must the Ukrianian army now. It must become an army of guerillas, becasue a war of attrition the Russians can hold out longer than the Ukrainians. Ukrainians must fight a years-long fight of guerilla warfare to exhaust Russia like Russia has exhausted the mood and willingness of the Europeans. They cannot recapture the Donbass, so they must form a long breath and make possession of it so unpleasant for the occupiers over the years that one day it is the occupiers who are exhausted, and give up this occupation that was so very unpleasant for them.

Europeans will not like this, because it means the war will drag on FOR YEARS to come. And that means Russia and Europe will not exchange kisses again any time soon.