Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

Danish TV2News Wrote:

Phase three of the war has begun - and it's with Ukraine on the offensive

ANALYSIS: The war is at a very crucial stage. As things stand, the most likely scenario is that Russia ends up getting the shaft.

As readers of these analyses will be aware, the war in Ukraine has so far proceeded in two phases.

The first phase was the Russian attempt to conquer all of Ukraine, capture Kyiv and depose the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. That phase ended with the stinging Russian defeats around Kyiv and in the strategically important towns of Chernihiv and Sumy in early April.

Phase two, which I called Plan B in last week's analysis, was the Russian attempt to "liberate" the entire Donbas, hold on to the conquests in southern Ukraine between Mariupol and Kherson, and probably gradually strangle Ukraine as a viable state over a number of years.

That phase has almost lasted four weeks, and it has not come close to delivering on the Russian objectives either. Nor will it.

The war is now in a smooth transition to phase three. What is new about phase three is that it will no longer be Russia that defines the objectives. In phase three, Ukraine will have the initiative.

Phase three will define Russian defeat. If Russia is going to make a Plan C, it will be on how Russia can minimize defeat and humiliation

Take note of Kharkiv

Phase three actually began just under two weeks ago, when Ukrainian forces began their counter-attack on the Russians around Kharkiv, the country's second largest city with about 1.5 million inhabitants. Kharkiv is located just 40 kilometres south of the border with Russia, and Russian forces have been trying to capture it since the early days of the war.

As we know, they have not succeeded. Now the Russian units have collapsed and are being chased back to Russia. In several places, the Ukrainians have reached the Russian border

In addition to the offensive to the north, Ukrainian forces have attacked to the east. Here they have reached the important railway line which, from the Russian garrison town of Belgorod, is the main supply line to the front in the northern Donbas near the town of Izium. If the Ukrainians have not already destroyed the railway, they will soon.

This will seriously deteriorate the supply situation for Russian forces in the northern Donbas between Izium and Severodonetsk. Russia can continue to divert the supply line to the railway further east. However, it will be a major detour from Belgorod.

At the same time, the Ukrainians are likely to try to push the front further east so that they can hit the very hub of the railway network at the town of Kupyansk north of Izium. If that happens, Russia will no longer be able to supply the forces in the northern Donbas via the rail network.

The Russian response to the Ukrainian threat to the supply lines came at the beginning of this week. Russia withdrew forces north from Izium to Kupyansk. This eases pressure from Russia at Izium. In recent days, the fronts in that area have been quiet.

Continued fierce fighting further east

Despite Ukraine's counter-attack and what I am already taking the liberty of calling phase three, Russian forces seem to be continuing in phase two in some places. This is particularly true near one of the largest cities in the Ukrainian part of the Donbas, Severodonetsk.

Here, the Russians have apparently succeeded in capturing the large suburb of Rubizne, which has been fought over for several weeks.

Russian forces are now at Severodonetsk, where we are likely to see heavy fighting. It is the last town controlled by Ukraine in the northern Donbas east of the Donets River.

The Donets River in particular has in many other places drawn Ukraine to the west. They have done so to use it as a defensive line. In doing so, they have inflicted significant losses on the Russians as they try to cross the river, including over 30 T72 tanks and armoured vehicles in an attack on Wednesday.

It is clear, therefore, that Russia has not yet given up on its land grab. We are likely to continue to see heavy fighting in some places for another week or two. After that, Russia is unlikely to have the fighting strength to continue attacks.

Their losses of troops and materiel are so extensive, and their ability to resupply and reinforce is so limited, that we will see units breaking up.

Putin has not yet read the writing on the wall

Putin's very subdued - almost boastful - speech on 9 May suggests that at least some realities are dawning on him. That is why he chose not to expand the war in Ukraine. It is doubtful, however, that Putin has realised that there is also a mismatch between Plan B and Russia's military capabilities.

The May 9 speech revolved around Donbas, and the continuing attacks in the region suggest that Putin has not yet read the writing on the wall.

The irony is that the longer it takes for Putin and the General Staff to realise that this is an unrealistic project, the better chance the Ukrainians will have in phase three. If Russia continues in phase two instead of making a plan C - a plan for defeat - the risk of a bully pulpit grows as Ukraine expands their offensive.

A further sign of Putin's continuing failure to recognise reality came this week when US National Intelligence Director Avril Haines outlined in the Senate that Putin is seeking a years-long war. The warning from Haines is based on intelligence about Putin's intentions. Haines did not talk about capabilities, and it is here that we find the great mismatch.

Therefore, I dare say that the war is at a very crucial stage in terms of what defeat Russia will end up with. As things stand, the most likely scenario is that Russia ends up getting the shaft

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Came to think of this article

The warning on Tuesday came in an assessment from intelligence chiefs briefing the Senate on worldwide threats. The prediction for Ukraine was a long, gruelling war of attrition, which could lead to increasingly volatile acts of escalation from Putin, including full mobilisation, the imposition of martial law, and – if the Russian leader felt the war was going against him, endangering his position in Moscow – even the use of a nuclear warhead.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-avril-haines

Markus

[Skybird]

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/is...o-think-he-is/

Speculation, but this one maybe a bit more founded than similair ones before.

However, take your prophylactic grain of salt before reading.

Steroids – a common one is prednisone – attack malignant lymphocytes that circulate in the blood, but they are also known for two common side effects.

The first is a high risk of infection owing to how badly they deplete immune cells. “Anyone on heavy doses of steroids will find it much easier to contract COVID-19,” Grossman said, which might account for Putin’s extreme germophobia and recourse to Howard Hughes-like seclusion. Pneumonia, too, can easily kill an immunocompromised steroid user.

And the second side effect?

“Deeply irrational or paranoid behavior.”

I can confirm this in so far as I as a student was taught this, too. Steroids can - even drastically! - affect mental state, and cause personality changes, like other prescribed hormone preparations.
It catches attention indeed that Putin in recent months suddenly has started to present an impressively strong string of desastrous misjudgements and intellectual errors - after having played the West against the wall for two decades en passant. I was thinking of paranoia too already.

[Dowly]

On Finland's electric grid and Russia:

Our consumption is about 8 000MW, of that we produce ~6 000MW in Finland and the rest is imported from Sweden and Estonia.

We'll be fine.

[Skybird]

When Scholz was confronted by several members of the coalition partner FDP during that defence meeting yesterday (ending in an eclat that after the event evbertbyody desperately tried to gloss over and saw one of the "rebels" givbing up his party seat), accoridng to reports today Scholz has categorically ruled out further deliveries of heavy weapons.

Scholz is being accused to have done in that meeting what he always does: systematically avoiding questions he does not like and refusing any answers, having not given any answer at all, according to the revolting FDP guys.

The loyalty to Russia is still ticking strong amongst the Genossen.

[Skybird]

Ukraine reports Russian troops are withdrawing from everywhere around Kharkiv.

Ukraine says Russian forces suffered 27000 KIAs.


In Rubhizne, Luhansk, a complete Russian batallion refused orders to attack, and so did not. Ukraine reports to have intercepted Russion radio calls showing this.

[Jimbuna]

Kharkiv's mayor says that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops "far out" from Ukraine's second city.

“Now it is calm and people are gradually coming back to the city," Mayor Ihor Terekhov says.

The comments came after a respected military think tank said Ukraine has "likely won the battle" for Kharkiv.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's president has said "very difficult" negotiations are under way over the evacuation of wounded fighters from Mariupol in the south.

In his nightly address, Zelensky also reiterated his warning that Russia's blockade of Ukraine's ports risks a global food crisis.

And foreign ministers from Nato countries will gather in Berlin later as Sweden and Finland move closer to joining the Western military alliance.

[Jimbuna]

Some of the world's most powerful industrialised nations - the Group of Seven - have declared they will never recognise new borders as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"We will never recognise borders Russia has attempted to change by military aggression, and will uphold our engagement in the support of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea, and all states," the G7 said in a statement after a meeting of their foreign ministers.

The statement also says the G7 will expand sanctions and keep supplying Ukraine with weapons, AFP reports.

The G7 are: Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US. The EU also has a seat at the table, but is not counted in the seven.

Russia used to be involved, but was expelled over the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

[Jimbuna]

The Finnish president called his Rusian counterpart Vladimir Putin today to tell him Finland would apply for Nato membership in the next few days.

In a statement, Sauli Niinistö said he told Putin how recent moves by Russia, along with the invasion of Ukraine, "have altered the security environment of Finland".

“The conversation was direct and straight-forward and it was conducted without aggravations. Avoiding tensions was considered important,” Niinistö says.

Russia has long threatened consequences if its nearby neighbours join Nato, a Western military alliance founded in part to ward off threat from the Soviet Union in 1949.

But Niinistö and the country's prime minister both called for Finland to join on Thursday, and Sweden is widely expected to follow suit in the next few days.

[mapuc]

If I read between the line in some of the news here in Denmark, then Macron and Scholz should be ashamed.

One may wonder on which side they are...Are they with the Russians which their effort so far could give the impression that they are.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

In Russia, covert mobilization continues at the state level. In the Belgorod and Rostov oblasts, new units of the occupying forces are being formed and sent to the territory of Ukraine on the basis of conscripts and mobilization resources.

However, the use of such troops is largely ineffective. This was announced on the air of the national marathon by the representative of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadym Skibitsky.

"Conscripts are summoned through military enlistment offices, they sign contracts, after which new units are formed and sent to the territory of Ukraine.

How effective the use of such troops is is already shown by the fighting. In many cases, this is not effective, but we really understand that today the Russian Federation has exhausted the resources related to the most combat-ready battalion tactical groups. Although it still has enough reserves to enter the territory of Ukraine, "- said the representative of the military intelligence of Ukraine.

Also, Vadim Skibitsky confirmed information about the depression and depressed moral and psychological climate in the units of the Russian occupation forces.

"The most depressed morale - the soldiers of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps from the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Because that is where the forced mobilization and conscription of the Russian occupation forces takes place. Untrained personnel, who have essentially no combat experience, are now heading to the most important areas. In addition, those reservists who are sent to Ukraine from Russia, especially from its central regions, eastern regions, they just went and thought they were going to make money, and here they are essentially met with strong resistance from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, defense forces, territorial defense and the entire population of Ukraine, "said a representative of Ukraine's military intelligence, adding that instead of receiving money, Russians return home in bags for corpses, which greatly affects the morale of the occupiers.

https://gur.gov.ua/ua/content/rosiia...nykh-hrup.html

Looks like Russia has exhausted its reserves of combat-ready troops.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Vadym Skibitsky.

For a moment I thought I had family ties I did not know of so far.

[mapuc]

Before I continue-I hope Russia will be thrown out of Ukraine-That they will suffer a humiliated defeat

Now that is said

I fear what Putin may do when he knows he has been humiliated in Ukraine

And
In Finland they expect a major cyber attack from Russia
In Sweden they fear a military response.

When these two country is applying for a NATO membership

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Before I continue-I hope Russia will be thrown out of Ukraine-That they will suffer a humiliated defeat

Now that is said

I fear what Putin may do when he knows he has been humiliated in Ukraine

And
In Finland they expect a major cyber attack from Russia
In Sweden they fear a military response.

When these two country is applying for a NATO membership

Markus

Thrown out of Ukraine is a lot of hope, do not see this happen in short time. Ukraine still have to retake a lot of their lost terrain, and with their battle ratio it is not possible at the moment.

Think Finland can counter that Russian cyberattack, they have experience with Russian cyber and Russia will not respond military they not stupid.