Strike on North Korea

[Aktungbby]

OH pshaw! After all, Fatboy figures Nippon is the "land of the rising son!"

[Jimbuna]

Not what I was expecting...

In a statement, Mr Trump said: "The world has received North Korea's latest message loud and clear: this regime has signalled its contempt for its neighbours, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behaviour.
"Threatening and destabilising actions only increase the North Korean regime's isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187

[Aktungbby]

HEY! No doubt Fatboy will claim
right of 'innocent passage'. I notice the missile was not routed more northerly over/above Hokkaido island toward the disputed Kuril islands (<enlarges) claimed by Japan but still held by Russia since WWII..... The disputed islands are known in Japan as the country's "Northern Territories". Fatboy does not want to piss off his distant political 'Commie cuz' Vlad Putin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands That said: http://www.pravdareport.com/russia/politics/28-04-2017/137622-russia_japan_kurils-0/

[Mr Quatro]

It's not fair that Japan has app on their phone that warns of a NK missile flying over their northern island, but we don't.

We demand an app that tells us a NK missile is on the way ... The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) can do that, right?

and we want it now

[mapuc]

Some of my FB-friends are 110 % convinced. Trump will very soon initiate an all-out attack on NK. I have said it is very, very doubtful this would happen.

Markus

[Platapus]

[QUOTE=Aktungbby;2509425]HEY!


Looks like North Korea chose a trajectory that minimized passing over Japanese land.

[Rockstar]

[QUOTE=Platapus;2509474]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

HEY!


Looks like North Korea chose a trajectory that minimized passing over Japanese land.

That and its altitude was also approximately 340 miles overhead. Not much to see there.

[STEED]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Some of my FB-friends are 110 % convinced. Trump will very soon initiate an all-out attack on NK. I have said it is very, very doubtful this would happen.

Markus

There is no Military build up, so for the moment they are wrong, social media blows everything up way out of proportion so fast these days it takes a while for the facts to catch up.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by STEED

There is no Military build up, so for the moment they are wrong, social media blows everything up way out of proportion so fast these days it takes a while for the facts to catch up.

Indeed it does-
Did also tell them, it's not going to happen. I doubt it very much, ´cause we have passed a certain line-
(when I wrote this, I was thinking on what Skybird said about this line- Now when it's almost sure NK has ICBM)

Markus

[Jimbuna]

North Korea says its firing of a missile over Japan was "the first step" of military operations in the Pacific, signalling plans for more launches.
State media also repeated threats to the US Pacific island of Guam, which it called "an advanced base of invasion".

Meeting late on Tuesday in New York, the council called the launch "outrageous", demanding North Korea cease all missile testing.
While the statement said the regime's actions were a threat to all UN member states, it did not threaten new sanctions against Pyongyang.

Arriving for a visit to Japan, British Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday called on China to put more pressure on North Korea, saying that Beijing had a key role in the international response to Pyongyang's "reckless provocation".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41091563

This is precisely what happens when Kim believes he is getting away with any actions he takes.

If escalation continues I can envisage some form of military action before christmas.

[Skybird]

It is surprising to me a bit that Japan took the risk - small or big may be arguable, but a risk there was for sure - to let that missile fly instead of intercepting it. This would have been a very strong answer, and a message to both the world and to North Korea. The only reason why they did not do it,the only reaosn that makes sense is that they were not sure of their chances. An attempt to intercept that missile going fail, would have been embarassing, and an encouragemet to North Korea.

Is it unreasonable to assume that the Japanese indeed feared to fail? I think not.

Lets go back in history, second Gulf war, 1991. Scuds were repeatedly fired by Iraq, at Allied targets as well as Israel. By the end of the war, the Pentagon claimed that around 47 of 49 interception attempts were successful. Later, this claim was reduced to much smaller values, and in Israel the military said that less than 2% of overall Patriot-based attempt to intercept Scuds, were successful. I just have read Manfred van creveld who claimed in the book I read that in fatc not even one successful hit of a Patriot versus a Scuds has beens cored ever during all the war. And a decade later, Clinton's defence minister admitted that "the Patriots have not worked."

The Pentgaon of course has an interest of spreadinh Hey-Hooray-paroles, so has the defence industry. But I warn against believing them. Too man voices of witnesses of that war that left the military meanwhile, claimed that the Patriots did not work, and that an interception was defined as successful if only the warhead got into a certain close range to the Scud, even if the explosion then had the scud beign left unharmed. It reminds a bit of like they did bodycounts in Vietnam: they were not counted, but officers were encouraged to use kind of a formula: if so and so many American rifles fired during a firefight for so and so long time, then the result had to be so and so many dead Vietcong, period. They were neither counted, nor in any other way confirmed. The Pentagon wanted to bioast with high losses suffered by the Vietcoing - and this abstract way of getting a number was the method of choice to produce these wanted high hill numbers.

I would not be surprised if it works comparably regarding the capabilities of counter-ICBM missiles, despite technological advancements. The wide variation yo get on success rates for Patriot-vrsus-Scud engagement si the war of 1991 shows that a lot of creativity is beign sued to "optimise" the official statistics, you can find well founded claims for the Patriots heving been very successful, and for claims that they did not succeed a single time, and then anything between these two statements.

Sheds a bit of new light on the threat caused by North Korea. However, I expect, as usual, no consequences from that. But I assume that the North Korean intel analysts know very well the truth behind the Patriot-vs-Scud statistis. And drawed conclusions.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Skybird

It is surprising to me a bit that Japan took the risk - small or big may be arguable, but a risk there was for sure - to let that missile fly instead of intercepting it. This would have been a very strong answer, and a message to both the world and to North Korea. The only reason why they did not do it,the only reaosn that makes sense is that they were not sure of their chances. An attempt to intercept that missile going fail, would have been embarassing, and an encouragemet to North Korea.

Is it unreasonable to assume that the Japanese indeed feared to fail? I think not.

Lets go back in history, second Gulf war, 1991. Scuds were repeatedly fired by Iraq, at Allied targets as well as Israel. By the end of the war, the Pentagon claimed that around 47 of 49 interception attempts were successful. Later, this claim was reduced to much smaller values, and in Israel the military said that less than 2% of overall Patriot-based attempt to intercept Scuds, were successful. I just have read Manfred van creveld who claimed in the book I read that in fatc not even one successful hit of a Patriot versus a Scuds has beens cored ever during all the war. And a decade later, Clinton's defence minister admitted that "the Patriots have not worked."

The Pentgaon of course has an interest of spreadinh Hey-Hooray-paroles, so has the defence industry. But I warn against believing them. Too man voices of witnesses of that war that left the military meanwhile, claimed that the Patriots did not work, and that an interception was defined as successful if only the warhead got into a certain close range to the Scud, even if the explosion then had the scud beign left unharmed. It reminds a bit of like they did bodycounts in Vietnam: they were not counted, but officers were encouraged to use kind of a formula: if so and so many American rifles fired during a firefight for so and so long time, then the result had to be so and so many dead Vietcong, period. They were neither counted, nor in any other way confirmed. The Pentagon wanted to bioast with high losses suffered by the Vietcoing - and this abstract way of getting a number was the method of choice to produce these wanted high hill numbers.

I didn't know all of this Sky thanks for bringing it up, but like the soldiers themselves the generals and the presidents of those days are gone or retired. This is not the same America and we don't have to lie to impress any little demi-gods of NK. If they persist in firing missiles they will find out what we can do in stopping them. I hope it's not an all out war, but a short one that destroys any hope they have of threatening a free world ever again.

The problem with this is the oriental mind and the bad guys losing face. Instead of saying, "Hey NK your country is bad" we need to open our arms to them and tear down the border that separates them. I pray that Korea becomes a model for the rest of the world to follow in being unified and that won't happen with Kim jong un in charge. He will have to be eliminated along with his military staff and let the people rule.

A war will be horrible for both sides we need a quick and lasting solution. Stop and think what will happen if we wait much longer for the fifty warheads they have now to be installed on fifty rockets ready to launch on command or even worse a diesel submarine that can launch a missile with a nuclear warhead on it.

President Trump has to act soon and it is Kim jong un that is pulling the trigger. There are invisible forces at work here for we fight not against flesh and blood, but against ancestors of North Korea and the oriental mind. We have to help Korea get to the point in time that they are loving each other instead of fighting each other.

A war is not advisable at this time due the pressing needs of the American people for a budget and health care and of course the 100 billion dollars the victims of Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Louisiana need.

I don't envy President Trump having to make this decision facing all of the other problems he has. Lets support his efforts not make fun of them. Let the powers that be decide our country and the Korean peninsula fate.

[Skybird]

I quickly googled the matter I told, I was not sure whether my numbers told by memory were right. But this piece by Fred Kaplan is from 2003, and pretty much in the openign paragraphs he gives the same numbers, more or less, like I quoted by memory. Maybe I even red this piece ten years ago or so, I do not know anymore where I have it from.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...t_games.2.html

And Mr. Quatro - politicians lie all the time, no matter the time they live in. Its part of their job description.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by MrQuatro

a quick and lasting solution

What we need to do is fire a full fledged 'test' ICBM over North Korea; a complete dud, and have it accidentally land in Pyongyang. Of course we will apologize profusely for our mistake.... And proceed to launch another one....which will land on Pyongyang and of course we will apologize profusely again....and we will escalate to full nuke if China so much as opens it's mouth about our conduct without a similar excoriation of its little buddy, Fatboy. Time for Trump to finish President Truman's 'unfinished business' ...65 years on. Fatboy likes to break the rules; we can break a few of our own. One thing though: an international murder warrant should be issued for Kim over the assassination death of his half brother in Malaysia. Talk about 'loss of face'; should he leave to visit China, for example, his so-called diplomatic immunity will not apply and China must comply with the warrant or be exposed for showing its true colors. Their participation in the present economic sanctions is a complete fraud...easily circumvented along the common boarder. This is about China, not its patsy North Korea.

[Platapus]

I don't know what the legality would be for Japan to shoot down a missile that is not in their sovereign airspace.

Anything above the Karman Line (100km) is recognized as international space (no pun intended)

Anything under 30km is considered territorial airspace. The area between 30km and 100 km has not been decided on an international level.

The primary reason is that very little happens in the 30-100km as it is too high for aircraft and too low for space craft. The only things that go though this area are space objects going up or down.

The Korean missile was passing over Japanese zones at about 500km, well above the Karman line.

The THAAD has an intercept altitude limit of about 150km so there was really no way the Japanese could shoot down the North Korean Missile as it was passing. I don't believe that the Japanese have an interceptor that has a higher operational altitude. Also these types of anti-ballistic missile interceptors intercept on reentry or the downward path.