Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Putin has changed his narrative, about why he started the war, so often, it is difficult to keep track. I think he does not give a sh!t anymore about whether his own people or anyone else believes him, the recent russian narrative (for now) is a war of conquest, for Russia The gloves are off.

Russia seems to have a major offensive rolling, attacking from the south direction north and northwest. They also have shelled the Azovstal site, and are attacking it now with soldiers, or so some news channels say.

Just imagine Russia wins this war, conquering all of Ukraine.
What will happen after this.

As it currently is and with that low troops standard they can be happy if they can keep Donbass and Luhansk and the land corridor to the Crimean.

Which probably also is Adolf's minimum objective he must come home with.

If this minimum objective is at risk, I see a mounting risk for the use of nuclear weapons. The only thing that MAYBE could deterr him from using them, is if the Ukraine could retaliate in the same "language" against targets in Russia. It could also mean that Putin finally gets replaced - and a military hardliner worse than Putin takes over.

[Catfish]

If we allow Putin/Russia to keep Donbas and the southern area of Ukraine there will be a pause of say five years, and then Russia will have filled up the gaps and get the rest of Ukraine.
It must be decisive now, all else is a temporary ceasefire.

[mapuc]

I think Ukraine will do a Croatia


If you wonder what I mean...Serbia toke some part of Croatia..Croatia was to weak to prevent this..but they started buy modern weapon from west and they change the way the soldiers was trained-They were trained more like a soldier from NATO-Then in beginning or in the middle of the 90'ies they toke back the land area from Serbia.
(Remember this from a documentary on Swedish tv)

I think Ukraine will do the same.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

If we allow Putin/Russia to keep Donbas and the southern area of Ukraine there will be a pause of say five years, and then Russia will have filled up the gaps and get the rest of Ukraine.
It must be decisive now, all else is a temporary ceasefire.

Yes. Absolutely.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Is Russia planning on doing the same with Sweden than they did with Ukraine ?



https://www.thelocal.se/20220503/fac...anda-campaign/

To start a war you need the population behind you and what wouldn't be better than convinced your citizens that the Swedes love Nazism..

I hope I'm wrong in this case I truly do

Markus

Let him make that mistake with 65% of his useless army in Ukraine let him open an 2nd front we all know how that will end.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Let him make that mistake with 65% of his useless army in Ukraine let him open an 2nd front we all know how that will end.

I bet that the Swedish army which is now a professionel army is way better trained and equip than the Ukrainian.

I have the feeling though that Putin is not interested in entire Sweden but only Gotland.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I bet that the Swedish army which is now a professionel army is way better trained and equip than the Ukrainian.

I have the feeling though that Putin is not interested in entire Sweden but only Gotland.

Markus

The Treaty of Lisbon strengthens the solidarity between EU countries in dealing with external threats by introducing a mutual defense clause (Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union). This clause provides that if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

This obligation of mutual defense is binding on all EU countries. However, it does not affect the neutrality of certain EU countries and is consistent with the commitments of EU countries which are NATO members.

This provision is supplemented by the solidarity clause (Article 222 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU) which provides that EU countries are obliged to act jointly where an EU country is the victim of a terrorist attack or a natural or man-made disaster.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

The Treaty of Lisbon strengthens the solidarity between EU countries in dealing with external threats by introducing a mutual defense clause (Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union). This clause provides that if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

This obligation of mutual defense is binding on all EU countries. However, it does not affect the neutrality of certain EU countries and is consistent with the commitments of EU countries which are NATO members.

This provision is supplemented by the solidarity clause (Article 222 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU) which provides that EU countries are obliged to act jointly where an EU country is the victim of a terrorist attack or a natural or man-made disaster.

Thank you Dargo. This was new to me...on the other hand EU's bureaucracy will turn this into a cirkus...I just know it...
Example 2 years after Russia has attacked Sweden-EU is still debatting the Article 42(7) and article 51 and other article.

Lets hope that 1 Russia doesn't have interest in Gotland, 2 If it happens EU comes to Sweden and help them.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The Ukrainains have neither forgotten nor forgiven that Steinmeier for a decade was the mastermind , beside Merkel, who designed the gas-dependency-policy after Schroeder despite desperate warnings from Ukraine over Nordstream 1 and 2. The first Nordsstream pipeline was opened short after the Russian annexation of the Crimean! The Russian Goebbels - Lavrov -, and Steinmayer, were close to each other and posed on many photos as if being very intimate friends. Steinmayer since then has been made the carricature of the federal president, means he makes no decisions on daily policy, and is powerless and without influence, his regret over his past role regardign Russia sounded hollow and not really convincing to me, and he cannot not decide to give the Ukraine weapons. So why would the ukrainians waste their time with this poser who has done his share to bring Russia to where it now is and what it now does? There is an explanation for the Ukrainian antipathy towards Steinmayer, and it is perfectly understandable.

And Scholz, do not get me started again. Der Typ ist einfach nur ekelhaft. Completely off track. Blasé. When asked critical questions, he becomes even more arrogant and starts lecturing in an offended and condescending manner. Detached from all unwelcome perception of reality. Self-important. Original quote Scholz: "Whoever orders leadership from me should know that then it will be leadership they will get from me." And: "I have always decided promptly and quickly." How can you misjudge yourself so completely?

I predicted that he would continue like he weaseled around since his time as mayor from Hamburg, then later in the Cum-Ex scandal over here. He fully fulfilled my prediction, from A to Z, he left not a single box unticked. Its all exactly like I expected from him. That such a sad figure could make it to head of a government in Germany definitely speaks agaisnt our political system. Even more so when considering that those before him where not better, Merkel, Schroeder...

And Germna politicians consider themselves as available for giving the ukraine "security guarantees". Well, Ukraine had these from Russia, the US and the UK for giving up its nukes, and what was it worth? Nothing. But German security guarantees, especially German ones, will make the oh so big difference...? Who do the Germans think they are? Clones of Superman? German security guarantees are worth nothing, because Germany has no military muscles worth to mention, not to mention: willingness to use them.

The Ukraine is well-advised, once this war is over and the Ukraine still exists, to arm itself up to the very last teeth. They should also try to get tactical nukes, as deterrance. There certainly must be a black market for according material, because I think they cannot afford to build them and expecting Russia will just sit and watch them completing it. They must get them secretly and then surprise the world with their existence.

Not meant as a means of provocation toward any German members in our community but Germany ha now become the laughing stock of NATO imho.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Catfish

If we allow Putin/Russia to keep Donbas and the southern area of Ukraine there will be a pause of say five years, and then Russia will have filled up the gaps and get the rest of Ukraine.
It must be decisive now, all else is a temporary ceasefire.

Agreed

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I bet that the Swedish army which is now a professionel army is way better trained and equip than the Ukrainian.

I have the feeling though that Putin is not interested in entire Sweden but only Gotland.

Markus

The Swedish armed forces, namely the ground forces, have good quality - but terrible quantity. German Wikipedia gives these numbers:


Manpower

Army: 6,200
Navy: 2,500
Air Force: 2,800
Other: 3,500

In 2019, women made up about 10% of the armed forces.
Equipment

Army: 120 Stridsvagn 122 main battle tanks (=Leopard-2), 509 CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles.
Navy: 4 submarines, 11 corvettes, 11 mine countermeasures ships, 13 patrol boats.
Air Force: 96 Saab JAS-39 Gripen fighter aircraft

Communications: Elbit Systems E-LynX strategic digtal radio communications in service, ordered in 2020 by the Försvarets materielverk (FMV). The SDR equipment is compatible with EU and NATO modes of operation.

2016 the defence budget was 4.2 bn Euros.

Like everywhere in Europe the forces were slashed down in the past decades. The draft was stopped ten or twelve years ago, and a few years later reintroduced. The navy is known to operate very silent submarines and some stealthed surface ships of good and modern stealth standard. The Gripen is a bit aged now, but it has aged very well. The Leopard-2s are what they are, and I have a soft spot for those CV-90 series of IFVs. Sweden uses the CV-9040 I seem to recall, where as Finland has the CV-9030. This verhicle family is quite popular around the Scandinavian and Baltic states. Denmark, Netherland and I think either Austria or Switzerland use the CV-9035. I was of the opiunion that the Germans would have had good use for a newer version of the CV90 as well, instead of doing with this superexpensive Puma.

Its not their quality that is their arhcilles heel, its their very limited quantity. The Fins have a very elaborated miltia system and can clal up hguge reserves with first line equipement, not just bunkered secnd and third gread weapons, thats what makes Finland most likely very strong, if need be. How Sweden can call up and equip reserves, I do not know.

[mapuc]

^ Thank you Skybird you mentioned something I forgot in my answer to Dargo.

- 96 JAS 39 Gripen...this is in peacetime multiply it in case of crisis or war.

Well It was in the news some decades ago that the Swedish government ordered 1000 JAS 39 before the year..Seem to recall 2025.

Forgot something.
In the beginning and up to the fall of Berlin wall Sweden spend 3.5 % Of the BNP on defence. in year 2000 it was down to 1.2 %(If I remember correctly)
It is first since 2015 Sweden has increased their BNP on the military..But it's not enough and it's kind of to late.

Markus

[Skybird]

1000 Swedish Gripen interceptors...? Never. Who should fly these? Mountain trolls?


Compoare, Germany, with a much biugger population, at the height of the cold war operated 900+ Starfighter (of which a third crashed). Why did they crash? Well, lacking maintenace cpaacity of the Luftwaffe had much to do with it. Too many planes for too few service engineers and too stressed supply logistics (spareparts). Sweden has much smaller armed forces, even back then. No chance they can maintain and supply one thousand combat aircraft.


Too low training capacities also should be mentioned. The Gripen is a Swedish design, you will not find instructor centres in other countries where Swedish pilots would be trained (like f.e. Lufthansa trains pilots for other airlines as well).

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

1000 Swedish Gripen interceptors...? Never. Who should fly these? Mountain trolls?


Compoare, Germany, with a much biugger population, at the height of the cold war operated 900+ Starfighter (of which a third crashed). Why did they crash? Well, lacking maintenace cpaacity of the Luftwaffe had much to do with it. Too many planes for too few service engineers and too stressed supply logistics (spareparts). Sweden has much smaller armed forces, even back then. No chance they can maintain and supply one thousand combat aircraft.


Too low training capacities also should be mentioned. The Gripen is a Swedish design, you will not find instructor centres in other countries where Swedish pilots would be trained (like f.e. Lufthansa trains pilots for other airlines as well).

Swiss has Gripen planes

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

1000 Swedish Gripen interceptors...? Never. Who should fly these? Mountain trolls?


Compoare, Germany, with a much biugger population, at the height of the cold war operated 900+ Starfighter (of which a third crashed). Why did they crash? Well, lacking maintenace cpaacity of the Luftwaffe had much to do with it. Too many planes for too few service engineers and too stressed supply logistics (spareparts). Sweden has much smaller armed forces, even back then. No chance they can maintain and supply one thousand combat aircraft.


Too low training capacities also should be mentioned. The Gripen is a Swedish design, you will not find instructor centres in other countries where Swedish pilots would be trained (like f.e. Lufthansa trains pilots for other airlines as well).

I made a search in case i was remembering wrong..which it so far looks like it...Where did I get 1000 from.

This is from the Swedish MoD 2001.

"The Swedish Armed Forces has now announced that it does not need all the 204 JAS 39 Grips ordered until 2007."

Yes it was 204 the government ordered in the end of the 90'ies.

I even read this among the Swedish homepage about JAS 39 Gripen

It's from 2012.

Today, on paper, we have about 100 JAS 39s in Sweden, of which about 72 are attached to the four divisions that are part of the operational organization (171st, 172nd, 211st and 212nd divisions). Other plans are used for education, development etc.

In the future, however, we will only have between 40 and 60 JAS 39 E / F, which means halving the air combat forces.

Trying to figure out where I got this 1000 from.

Markus