Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

At the current expenditure rate those 40K artillery shots form the US will not even last one week. And the Russian offenbsoive has not even started to roll, and losses of Ukrianian artillery and Russian interdiction strikes of ammo transports from the Polish border to Ukraine's East are not even counted in. And the Russians have satellites too - not just the US.

The EU and in particular Germany could and should be doing so much more.

Mind you, there is also a case for how much NATO members could and should also be doing.

[Jimbuna]

Russia says it will spare the lives of Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol if they lay down their arms on Sunday.

Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko tells the BBC that Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol won't surrender to Russia.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier said eliminating Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol would put an end to talks.

Russia is planning to restrict access to Mariupol from Monday, city officials say.

Men said to be crew members from the lost Russian warship Moskva are shown on parade in Sevastopol.

The mayor of Kyiv has warned residents to be wary of further Russian missile attacks.

Vitali Klitschko urges those who have fled the city not to return.

Russia has banned UK PM Boris Johnson and other senior ministers from entering Russia over the country's "hostile" stance on the war.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol 'will not surrender', says Ukrainian MP
Ukrainian MP for Odesa Oleksiy Goncharenko tells the BBC that Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol won't surrender to Russia.

"I spoke with them yesterday, and I know that they're going to fight until the end," he says.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said that eliminating Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol would put an end to peace talks to end the war.

Russia said it would guarantee the lives of Ukrainian soldiers who would surrender, with the Kremlin adding that the only Ukrainian soldiers left in the city were at a giant steelworks.

Goncharenko said the situation in Mariupol was "a real genocide" and estimated that about 100,000 civilians were in the city.

He added that it was considered "more than 20,000 people" have been killed in the besieged port city.

Another Russian general reported dead

The deputy commander of the 8th army of Russia's armed forces, Vladimir Petrovich Frolov, has died in the war in Ukraine, the Russian news agency TASS has reported.

The news was confirmed by St Petersburg governor Alexander Beglov. Beglov said: "Vladimir Petrovich Frolov died a heroic death in battle with Ukrainian nationalists."

The governor said Frolov "sacrificed his life so that children, women and the elderly in the Donbas would no longer hear bomb explosions. To stop waiting for death and leaving home, to say goodbye as if it were the last time".

But most of the shelling taking place in Ukraine is being carried out by Russia.

Throughout the war several Russian generals and high-ranking military personnel have been reported dead. It is unusual for such high-ranking officers to put themselves in danger by getting so close to the battlefield, and Western sources believe that they have done so in order to get some control over operations which have, in some areas, badly stalled.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Sure, but those only destroy, not occupy you need ground forces to gain terrain

True. I was thinking...Ok they can't use their tanks due to muddy soil..but they can create havoc among the Ukrainian front by massive bombardment.

I would let it rain shells, rockets, missiles of many kind down on the Ukrainian soldiers and material.

So they are soften when I send my tanks and soldier to take land.

Markus

[Skybird]

Rule of thumbs values that are often given to describe the numerical advantage needed to go on the offensive, is 3:1 in favour of the attacker. In urban areas and house-to-house fighting even 5:1 to 6:1, and higher. Somehow I doubt the Russians can gain that. It got reported that during the attempted raid on/siege of Kyiv there probably were more Ukrainian defenders than Russian attacker in the areas in and around the city.



Two alternatives for the Russian I could imagine.

First, using groundforces to keep Ukrainian counterattacks away and shelling them from disaance, with long range weapons.

Second, conducting a highly mobile, fast and agile warfare to temporarily ensure numercial superiority in a place, winning the battle, and then quickly disperse, move away and to the next target and do the same somewhere else. - Some things speak against this. First, the war goal would need to be destroying the enemy in numbers, while the Russians want to occupy territory and thus need to hold ground, not moving away from it again. Socond, it woudl need good communication networks and routines, according tactical training, and a general doctrine calling for all this. - Their comms I cannot judge, they were bad in the past, but they may have learned from their initial mistakes, I dont know. The training is certainly not given, and the Russian/Sovjet military doctrine is not like that, too, so i would be surprised to see the Russians behaving like this. They tried several spearhead raid with their arimobile unisy whihc were considered to be their elite unites - THEY ALL FAILED and partially got shreddered to pieces.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Rule of thumbs values that are often given to describe the numerical advantage needed to go on the offensive, is 3:1 in favour of the attacker. In urban areas and house-to-house fighting even 5:1 to 6:1, and higher. Somehow I doubt the Russians can gain that. It got reported that during the attempted raid on/siege of Kyiv there probably were more Ukrainian defenders than Russian attacker in the areas in and around the city.



Two alternatives for the Russian I could imagine.

First, using groundforces to keep Ukrainian counterattacks away and shelling them from disaance, with long range weapons.

Second, conducting a highly mobile, fast and agile warfare to temporarily ensure numercial superiority in a place, winning the battle, and then quickly disperse, move away and to the next target and do the same somewhere else. - Some things speak against this. First, the war goal would need to be destroying the enemy in numbers, while the Russians want to occupy territory and thus need to hold ground, not moving away from it again. Socond, it woudl need good communication networks and routines, according tactical training, and a general doctrine calling for all this. - Their comms I cannot judge, they were bad in the past, but they may have learned from their initial mistakes, I dont know. The training is certainly not given, and the Russian/Sovjet military doctrine is not like that, too, so i would be surprised to see the Russians behaving like this. They tried several spearhead raid with their arimobile unisy whihc were considered to be their elite unites - THEY ALL FAILED and partially got shreddered to pieces.

Problem is, Russia can not get enough trained personnel, Russians are running 2 man tank crews. Western tanks have 4 crew commander, gunner, loader, driver 4 sets of eyes. Russian tanks have 3 crew and an autoloader. In Ukraine, they seem to be operating with only 2 crew who are overworked and unable to maintain situational awareness, so sitting ducks. Rampant corruption is well documented (Stolen payroll for non-existent crew, etc.). If on paper, 100 fully crewed tanks are available, when war kicks off, you don’t suddenly become honest, you carry on with the lie. Easier than explaining why only 60 tanks deployed.

[Moonlight]

The Ukrainians are saying that their Neptune missiles caused the Moskva to sink.
The Russians deny that claim and are insisting that the Moskva suffered a fire and an explosion which eventually caused the ship to sink.
The Russians are also announcing that they bombed Kiev in retaliation, in retaliation for what?, for an onboard accidental fire that the Russians themselves have caused?, these are strange times.

Why does it appear that some of the crew look as if they've recently been dug up from a cemetery?, and why is it full summer in that same video they're showing?, hmmmm, the laws of physics must work differently in Russia than in the rest of the galaxy.

Bloody hell you muppets, the least you could do is get your story straight...

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

True. I was thinking...Ok they can't use their tanks due to muddy soil..but they can create havoc among the Ukrainian front by massive bombardment.

I would let it rain shells, rockets, missiles of many kind down on the Ukrainian soldiers and material.

So they are soften when I send my tanks and soldier to take land.

Markus

would only work if the Ukraine army operates in open field that they avoided the entire war that is why they're winning

[Moonlight]

Originally Posted by mapuc

True. I was thinking...Ok they can't use their tanks due to muddy soil..but they can create havoc among the Ukrainian front by massive bombardment.

I would let it rain shells, rockets, missiles of many kind down on the Ukrainian soldiers and material.

So they are soften when I send my tanks and soldier to take land.

Markus

There are some cold war Nuclear Bunkers in Mariupol and those Ukrainian defenders will have control of them, the Russians will lose thousands of troops if they go into them and try to clear them out.
The Russians know that these bunkers are massive structures and lets be clear here, they have to take them. The Russians must be dreading going into them and that's why they are wanting the defenders to surrender.
The death rates of those Russian conscript soldiers will skyrocket as they don't have the know how to take them. If it happens and the Russians do go into them it will be the bloodiest and longest battle of the war.

[Dargo]

Sanctions work Russia can no longer buy components for anti-air missile systems BUK, tanks and similar. Production levels fall close to zero. Eventually this will reduce attacks on Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

From liveuamap

49°57′N 36°19′E Explosions in Nemyshlansky and Slobidsky districts of Kharkiv

50°2′N 36°28′E Ukrainian military in counter-offensive in Kharkiv region. Liberated Bazalievka, Lebyazhe, partially Kutuzivka

One step forward, and 1½-2 step back for the Russian it seems.

Markus

[Dargo]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17
Key Takeaways

Russian forces likely captured the Port of Mariupol on April 16 despite Ukrainian General Staff denials.
Russian forces likely seek to force the remaining defenders of the Azovstal factory to capitulate through overwhelming firepower to avoid costly clearing operations, but remaining Ukrainian defenders appear intent on staging a final stand.
Evgeny Prigozhin, financier of the Wagner Group, is likely active on the ground in eastern Ukraine to coordinate Wagner Group recruitment and funding.
Russian forces continued their build up around Izyum but did not conduct any offensive operations.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...sment-april-17

[Rockstar]

A few days ago I was wondering if Ukraine would eventually take back Crimea if they managed to boot Russia out of mainland Ukraine.

If the bridge really is doomed to fail then the Crimea would be severely cut-off from Russia again. Might be the best reason why Putin decided that in order to save face from *engineering blunders he would sacrifice 20,000 soldiers killed and counting in attempt to establish that land corridor from Mariupol to Crimea.

Putin's Bridge to Crimea Is Doomed to Collapse

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-bridg...ollapse-541578

* Criticism comes from Russia as well. Russian construction engineer Yury Sevenard expressed identical concerns about the geology, seismic activity and extreme weather conditions. And in December 2016, Yury Medovar from Russia's Academy of Sciences said that the bridge is being built without a proper design, since nobody wants to take responsibility for it. The bridge cannot be built, he said, and God help us if it is, since it can't last.