Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The Bill got/went through the Congress.

This would mean Ukraine has supply for another 18-20 month of fighting(Someone wrote this in a livestream chat)

Markus

And another Putin play bites the dust also means about 90 percent of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has thus far approved is not going to Ukraine but is being spent in the United States. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ricts-weapons/ this is for anybody thinking it's all money given to Ukraine this bill is an investment in the US economy Ukraine gets the tools and ammo (from US stock) so that the US does not need to send troops and its economy profits (orders in the US to replenish stock) from it Win Win situation.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

And another Putin play bites the dust also means about 90 percent of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has thus far approved is not going to Ukraine but is being spent in the United States. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ricts-weapons/

The same goes here in Denmark 2/3 of the billion the Danish government gives to Ukraine is used to buy ammo and weapons.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The same goes here in Denmark 2/3 of the billion the Danish government gives to Ukraine is used to buy ammo and weapons.

Markus

All countries do this it is a surplus for the US that it gives their own weapons they produce it all goes into their own economy.

[mapuc]

Following sentence is taken from a Danish article

Europe, meanwhile, has had to shoulder the heavy burden of arms deliveries to Ukraine, but does not have the capacity of the United States to deliver enough weapons.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Following sentence is taken from a Danish article



Markus

Europe has to rebuild its war production that is happening now, it will take time till these new factories are ready.

[mapuc]

The American weapons now expected in Ukraine will probably not take long to arrive.

A Western government official told the Financial Times newspaper that a significant portion of the weapons and ammunition is already in storage in the Polish town of Rzeszor on the border with Ukraine.

Markus

[Dargo]

A majority of Republicans voted against the Ukraine bill:

• Democrats Yes 210 No 0
• Republicans Yes 101 No 112
• Totals Yes 311 No 112

March 1941, Lend Lease to save Europe from Hitler:

• Democrats Yes 238 No 25
• Republicans Yes 24 No 135
• Totals Yes 262 No 160

History may not repeat, but it sure is cyclic.

A Ukrainian soldier texts from Donbas:

- The whole unit was watching. After the vote, one could hear all over the trench: “YESSS!”

Thank you! https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/sta...46268739448975

[Skybird]

The news is welcomed, whether it came too late - as I fear - or not, remains to be seen.


In several oblasts of Ukraine, not a single powerplant is working anymore, namely Charkiv. They get some power, sometimes, via overland lines from other regions - which also get systematically attacked for their remaining powerplants. The vast majority of powerplants in ukraine now is either damaged or destroyed. Numbers freported or claimed indicate a loss rate of around 60-70%.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The news is welcomed, whether it came too late - as I fear - or not, remains to be seen.

Indeed let us see how well they have done it through the Spring and Summer, in the Autumn

I think they will stop the Russians and press them back on several part of the frontline

It will not be hundred of kilometers but more like hundred of meters they will be pressed back.

Together with F16 that is.

Edit
Have tried to study it between the lines-What exactly does it mean this bill, despite sending weapons to Ukraine ? Is it also a hidden declaration towards Russia ?
End edit

Markus

[Dargo]

With this military support, Ukraine can fend off the Russian offensive (what is already no going so great for Russia) we will see the result in weeks to come. In the meantime, Russia realizes they lost it this year:
Dmitry Peskov Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

On seizing Russian assets: "If it's really about confiscating our assets, the USA will answer for that. Moscow will take measures in accordance with our interests, no time limits". On aid to Ukraine: "the decision will make the USA even richer and will make Ukraine still poorer, more Ukrainians will die."

Dmitry Medvedev Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.

"It was the voting of joyful US bastards:
a) to continue the civil war of the separated people of our once united country;
b) to increase the number of victims of this war as much as possible.

We will, of course, win, despite the $61 billion of bloody dollars that will mostly go down the throat of their insatiable military production complex. Power and Truth are with us. But considering the Russophobic decision that took place, I can't help but wish the USA with all sincerity to dive into a new civil war themselves as quickly as possible. Which, I hope, will be very different from the war between North and South in the 19th century and will be waged using aircraft, tanks, artillery, MLRS, all types of missiles and other weapons. And which will finally lead to the inglorious collapse of the vile, evil empire of the 21st century - the United States of America."

The US has a very good logistics network that enables to move artillery, air defences, munitions and other weapons already positioned in stores across Europe very quickly possibly within days.

[mapuc]

Thank you Dargo I was wondering how Russia would interpreter this messages from US Congress-A clear message that is, by sending Ca 61bn Dollars worth of ammo and weapons.

Markus

[Dargo]

It will benefit both soldiers and Ukrainian cities and villages

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that the aid package for Ukraine passed by the US House of Representatives will be beneficial to soldiers on the frontline, as well as to Ukrainian cities and villages.

Originally Posted by Zelenskyy

Today we received the decision we had been waiting for: the US support package. The one for which we fought so hard. A very significant package that will be appreciated both by our soldiers on the frontline and by our towns and villages suffering from Russian terror.

Zelenskyy thanked everyone who supported the aid package for Ukraine and Speaker Mike Johnson personally. He also expressed hope that the package would be considered by the US Senate and sent to US President Joe Biden "fairly quickly." "We appreciate every manifestation of support for our state and independence, our people and our lives, which Russia wants to bury in ruins. The US has shown its leadership from the very first days of the war. This kind of American leadership is vital for the preservation of the international order in the world, based on rules and predictability of life for all peoples. We will certainly use American support to strengthen both our nations and bring a just end to this war – a war that Putin must lose." https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/20/7452191/

What's hilariously idiotic is that the very people who were...

• Absolutely wrong about the very possibility of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Absolutely wrong about the Ukrainian morale and popular support of national independence and sovereignty.
• Absolutely wrong about Ukraine's ability and readiness to even survive the attack's first hours, stay functional, and take the fight.
• Absolutely wrong about the inevitable fall of Kyiv within 48 to 72 hours.
• Absolutely wrong about the possibility of Western defense aid supplies (and about every single weapon type and class provided), as well as the assistance's potential to make a difference on battlefields.
• Absolutely wrong about the possibility of a Ukrainian victory at Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv etc.
• Absolutely wrong about Russia's ability to seize Odesa via a grand landing operation.
• Absolutely wrong about the general course of the war, which has recently entered the third year, instead of being over with complete Russian victory within between 10 and 15 days.
• Absolutely wrong about the Ukrainian sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship.
• Absolutely wrong about Ukraine's ability to master and effectively use Western artillery/rocket systems/radars/armored vehicles/air defense/missiles/jets/whatever.
• Absolutely wrong about Ukraine's ability to survive two winter seasons under Russian missile attacks on critical infrastructure.
• Absolutely wrong about Europe 'freezing to death without Russian gas'.
• Absolutely wrong about the coming of a global nuclear holocaust should Ukraine even think about fighting back.
• Absolutely wrong about Ukraine collapsing by spring 2022/summer 2022/winter 2022/spring 2023/summer 2023/winter 2024/to be continued.
• Absolutely wrong about Russia's verified and confirmed losses (verified and confirmed) not seen since World War II.
• Absolutely wrong about Russia's own military production.
• Absolutely wrong about Ukraine's ability to retake Kherson, Kharkiv Oblast, northern Donbas, in all 50% of the territory lost in the full-scale Russian invasion.
• Absolutely wrong about Ukraine's drone program and Ukraine delivering strikes against Russian oil refineries, arms factories (even the Kremlin!!) and effectively disabling Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
• Absolutely wrong about European supplies of artillery munitions.
• Absolutely wrong about the new U.S. defense aid bill.
• Absolutely wrong about Ukraine still being in control of over 80% of its territory after over 2 years of a full-scale war with Russia, one of the largest military powers in history...

... and the very same people are now trying to play the poker face, pretend they are still *in the know*, and keep saying Ukraine will collapse anyway. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...04093486330106

[Skybird]

This aid package will keep Ukraine in the fight, but it will not enable it to victoriuously end the war. In some months, the money will be eaten up, the ammo and weapons bought with it will have been spent.

And then...?

Its the same as always with military aid in the past 26 months: always too late, always too little to live, too much to die.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68868399

For myself, I came to a dangerous conclusion. The war cannot be won without NATO aggressively intervening in Ukraine. With forces fighting, in the air and on the ground, and bombardments inside Russia of the mililtary-industrial production and supply complex. For which the Russians would no doubt take retaliation, and escalation. For the moment I dont say that this is what should be done, I am not certain and am heavily impressed by the intimidating risk involved in this. The dangers command utmost respect. I just say this sober fact is what I concluded - not more, not less.

And one thing for my taste is way too much ignored in the West: no matter what the Wets has dleoivered inq ulaity and systems and "wonder wepaons" - until today the Russians always, every signle time, have learned relatively quickly to adapt to the new variable thrown into the battle formula, and neutralised it. Whetehr it is Himars, Javelins, or Abrams and Leopard tanks - they always found the neutralising remedy. The Western sytems entered the arena with pomp and fanfares and hugh flying expectations, and took their toll in the opening phase of their entrance - and then faded into relative insignificance over the course of time. I fear that the same will happen with the F-16s. They would have been needed last year. Now they are basically too late. They will initially impose their price on the Russians and make headlines - and disappear one by one over time.


In German we have a term for this kind of indecisive, incoherent improvisation, we talk of "Stückwerk" or "Flickwerk". What is missing is what is expressed in German as "die Sache muss Zug in sich haben". There may be equivalent English phrases, but I don't know them.

[Skybird]

comment in the NZZ: https://www.nzz.ch/international/tru...eln-ld.1827299

Google translator has some fun with it, I cannot help it, DeepL has much better quality but is too limited in text size.

The urgently needed military aid from the USA is finally flowing back into Ukraine. Next week, the necessary formal decisions must be made in the Senate and the White House, but then it will only be a few days before the well-organized American military logistics can hand over the first ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. They will immediately use the exhausted and badly pressed Ukrainian soldiers against the overwhelming enemy at the front.

Without the new American weapons and ammunition supplies, the collapse and destruction of the vast Eastern European country under the brutal Russian war machine would only be a matter of time. This weekend's political breakthrough in Washington is a positive surprise after months of delaying tactics by Republican politicians. The Western world can celebrate it for a brief moment, but it is too early to breathe a sigh of relief and sit back for two reasons.

First, US political support for the Ukrainian defense struggle remains precarious. It is not even completely clear what made the positive turnaround in Congress possible. The negotiating skills of Republican Speaker Mike Johnson in the House of Representatives played an important role. He himself opposed the aid for a long time. But now, presumably under the impression of the devastating reports of Russian advances and Ukrainian desperation at the front, he recognized that the time had come for a rethink - and promoted this with discreet skill. However, he was in no way directed against former President Donald Trump, but rather achieved his approval of a repackaged, but practically identical, support package for Ukraine that the same Trump had previously torpedoed for months.

The episode shows: Without Trump, nothing works for the Republicans. And Trump's unpredictability and purely transactional political thinking for his own benefit can only mean one thing for Ukraine: there are no guarantees for the future. The fact that Trump allowed himself to be persuaded to provide aid this time probably has something to do with the fact that he wanted to prevent a quick defeat before election day in November in order to maintain his own campaign promise of a peace deal that he had negotiated “within 24 hours”. That says nothing about what he will decide next time.

But support for Ukraine remains volatile not only with Trump, but also in the wider political Washington. On Saturday, more than half of the Republicans still voted against the aid package; the ratio was similar in the Senate. Thanks to the Democrats, it was enough for a clear yes, but resistance remains strong among the Republicans. And over the last two years, President Biden has always struggled to deliver American weapons systems to Ukraine quickly and decisively enough. Rocket launchers, tanks, fighter planes, ammunition - everything always came too late and too sparsely for Ukraine to gain a decisive advantage at the front. There is nothing to suggest that this will change now.

The second reason for only cautious joy in Washington about the breakthrough is Russia's structural superiority in the war, which is causing so much trouble for Ukraine. The huge country, with a population around three times its size, has enormous resources that it can throw into war. Unlike Kiev, there is a dictator in Moscow. Vladimir Putin can politically afford to send hundreds of thousands of mostly impoverished citizens into a senseless and murderous war from which many will not return.

And he has the power to gamble away the future of the Russian economy by pushing a war economy into high gear in the safe Russian hinterland. Every week it spits out artillery shells, drones, rockets, tanks and guns, which are immediately thrown onto the Ukrainian front. The hope shared by many military strategists at the beginning of the war that the Russian military assets would be slowly depleted over the years by the enormous wear and tear of the war has not been fulfilled.

Both factors, domestic political volatility in the United States and Russia's strategic superiority, can only mean one thing for Ukraine's European allies: they must not let up. The country is on the brink of defeat due to a lack of ammunition and modern weapons systems. The $60 billion from the USA is a big relief, but it won't be enough.

The most urgent thing is to strengthen air defense. The fact that Ukraine still exists as a state is primarily due to the fact that Russia has never managed to achieve absolute air superiority. But Putin's war machine is now approaching this state. The brutal consequences can be seen at the front, where the Ukrainians have been in a gradual retreat for months under the merciless bombardment of the Russians. But they can also be seen in the former city of Kharkiv, which was apparently made uninhabitable by the targeted bombing, and in the targeted destruction of the power supply throughout the country. Last week, Germany promised the rapid delivery of another Patriot air defense system. More are urgently needed, including ammunition.

The first F-16 fighter jets from Western European stocks are expected to follow in the spring, but their number is far too small for them to make a significant difference. Here too, Europe can do more. The most important thing, however, is that in the European capitals and Washington the realization prevails not only in rhetoric, but also in actions: the thirty-year era of peace and détente in Europe has unfortunately come to an end.

Under the pressure of Putin's Russian imperialism, the USA and the Western European states must immediately invest a lot more money in their own defense. The West needs many more artillery shells, drones, air defense systems, guns, tanks, ammunition and electronic warfare systems. This will be an expensive, ongoing task. The implementation of this unpopular insight is only beginning to be visible.

[Skybird]

Peace negotiations ending wars?


https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de


So much for that.