Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ Nothing new there it ain't.

I believe it's true all of it or most of it while others would say it's West propaganda.

Markus

There is so much evidence from Russians themselves and images that I would not call it propaganda.

[Jimbuna]

Kyiv says seven dead as drone attack sinks Russian ship

Ukrainian intelligence says seven people have been killed and six more injured after a Russian patrol ship was hit and sunk in a sea drone attack.

The Sergei Kotov was allegedly hit in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

Ukraine's military intelligence service said the Black Sea fleet ship suffered damage to the stern as well as right and left sides.

The Kremlin is yet to comment, but some Russian bloggers confirmed the sinking of the Sergei Kotov.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify the extent of damage to the ship.

In a Telegram post Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) said 52 crew members were evacuated.

The Sergei Kotov is one of four patrol ships completed for the Russian Navy's Project 22160. It had previously been attacked by Ukraine in September last year.

"Right now this ship is on the seabed," Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said, adding a helicopter may have been on board.

According to Ukraine, the vessel played a part in the attack on Snake Island on the first day of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, along with the Moskva cruiser.

The Moskva was sunk by Ukraine in 2022.

Russia illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine almost 10 years ago. In recent months Ukraine has repeatedly hit Russia's Black Sea fleet stationed on the peninsula.

Ukraine said the cost of the sunken Sergei Kotov ship was $65m (£51.2m), adding that it was hit near the Kerch Strait, which separates Crimea from Russia.

A video posted on social media appears to show the moment when the ship was hit.

UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps shared the video, stating "the Black Sea is not safe for Putin's Navy".

"Until recently that would have been unimaginable. Now because the West backed Ukraine, it's undeniable," he said.

"If we get them what they need, the bravery & skill of the Ukrainian Armed Forces can unlock victories once thought impossible."

BBC Verify has looked at the video, released by Ukraine, said to be of the attack.

The vessel has similar structural features to a patrol ship of the same class as the Sergei Kotov. However, no number is visible on its side, so the footage does not make clear if it is the same ship.

No other versions of the video have appeared on reverse image searches, suggesting the video was released recently.

HUR also published a recording purportedly of the commander of the Russian Navy's 184th Brigade, responsible for the Sergei Kotov, saying the ship had been attacked by five drones.

At least 13 Russian naval ships have been destroyed or damaged since the start of the conflict, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

Last month, another Russian ship, the Caesar Kunikov, was sunk in a drone attack just south of the city of Yalta.

At the time, Ukraine's intelligence directorate released video of what it said were Magura V5 sea drones striking the Caesar Kunikov.

Separately, Ukraine claimed credit for a drone strike on an oil depot in the Russian border region of Belgorod on Tuesday.

Kyiv also said Ukrainian air defences had downed 18 of 22 Iranian-designed attack drones launched by Russia over the Black Sea port city of Odesa.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68477318

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

Ukraine plans record electricity exports to 5 countries

Ukraine plans to export a record 13 gigawatt hours of electricity to other countries on March 4, namely to Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Moldova, said Ukrenergo, Ukraine's state-owned energy operator, in a statement on Telegram. Since electricity exports are permitted only in the absence of energy deficits, the announcement indicates a stable situation in that sector despite Russian attacks and winter consumption." Today, it is planned to export a record amount of electricity – 13,264 megawatt hours, with the maximum capacity in individual hours up to 716 megawatts," Ukrenergo said on Telegram.

The state company said that flooded rivers and sunny weather contributed to greater output of hydroelectric and other power plants. "Thanks to this, electricity producers have the opportunity not only to fully meet the needs of Ukrainian consumers but also to sell electricity to neighbouring countries, receiving funds for further recovery after Russian attacks," the statement read. Despite Russian attacks against Ukraine's infrastructure over the winter, the country's energy system remained relatively stable, avoiding large-scale blackouts that happened during late 2022 and early 2023. Naftogaz's CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov said that for the first time, Ukraine went through the winter using only domestically-produced gas. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenerg...o-5-countries/

[Skybird]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68488962

Wowh. Just wowh. Messing it up themselves - but already lecturing the others again.

Wallace was right, you stupid German SOAB.

But what do you expect of a government where high ranks do most infantile mistakes and their chef then says that this were no need at all to replace them due to their inappropriate underestimating of security risks and ignorrance for the need for following security protocols. If I were the minister, heads would have rolled.

Germany has once again made a fool of itself. And caused damage. And is outraged when it is called to order for it. Arrogant bunch.

[Dargo]

No Taurus is needed with a sub-drone they could destroy the pylons of the Kerch Bridge foundation underneath water so that the bridge section will collapse 35m down.

[Jimbuna]

Russian missile targets Ukrainian motorcade in 'attempt to assassinate President Zelensky'

Russia has attempted to assassinate Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky with a missile strike on his motorcade, it has been reported.

Zelensky was visiting Odesa, in southern Ukraine, when the motorcade - which was 150 metres from that of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis - was attacked by a Russian missile at 11.43am, according to local media. Greek State Minister Stavros Papastavrou said "there is no issue" with the security of the Greek PM, adding: "We are all fine."

It is understood the meeting between the Ukrainian and Greek officials took place as expected. A picture from the scene showed black clouds rising over the Black Sea port city.

In remarks attributed to Mr Mitsotakis on Telegram, he said: "President Zelensky and his staff showed and explained to us the importance of the port and what is being done to restore and strengthen the Ukrainian sea route and what damage he experienced during the attacks.
"Already at the very end we heard the sound of sirens and explosions that were very close to us." According to Greek publication Protothema, the country's PM arrived in Ukraine early in the morning under conditions of "extreme secrecy" before heading to Bucharest in Romania for the EPP Summit.

Mr Mitsotakis first visited a border station before meeting Zelensky in Odesa, where the sirens began to sound and Ukraine said Russia had launched a ballistic missile. According to local media, the strike was carried out by either an Iskander missile or an Onyx missile. There have been no announcements or statements from Ukrainian officials on the incident as of yet.

According to reports, residents of Odesa were advised to go to shelters at 2pm. On Telegram, it has been claimed that five people were killed and "several" were injured in the attack. The Greek PM is being accompanied by minister of state Stavros Papastavrou, the head of his diplomatic office, Anna Maria Boura, and communications director Kyra Kapi.

In November, a key Putin security lieutenant issued a chilling warning to Zelensky saying he "is unlikely to have a chance of living to old age." The sickening threat from Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev followed Zelensky's revelation that he had already survived at least five Kremlin assassination attempts.

Mr Medvedev - now Putin's deputy on the Russian security council - said: "All this cheap bravado also evokes one very obvious thought. With such powerful ‘prophecies’, this fool is unlikely to have a chance of living to old age. Thoughts are sometimes material."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...03902621&ei=28

[Dargo]

History Says Ukraine Can Win the War Against Russia

The argument that Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia based solely on numerical superiority—more soldiers, weapons, tanks, and aircraft—is challenged by historical and contemporary examples where numbers were not decisive in determining the outcome of conflicts.

Summary: The argument that Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia based solely on numerical superiority—more soldiers, weapons, tanks, and aircraft—is challenged by historical and contemporary examples where numbers were not decisive in determining the outcome of conflicts. Who says Ukraine can't win the war with Russia? If numbers are all that matters, Ukraine doesn’t stand a chance against Russia. Vladimir Putin’s kingdom has more of everything: more soldiers, more weapons, more ammunition, more tanks, more aircraft, and so on. It’s also some 28 times larger than Ukraine, and its population dwarfs Ukraine’s. But if numbers are all that matters, Ukraine shouldn’t have survived the invasion of 2014 and the all-out war of 2022. Indeed, Ukraine should have gone belly up every single day since then. And yet, mysteriously and inexplicably for numbers fetishists, it didn’t.

Things get more inexplicable if we expand our focus. If numbers are all that matters, the United States should have prevailed in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the Soviet Union should have easily conquered Afghanistan, the British, French, Spaniards, Dutch, and Portuguese should never have succeeded in establishing overseas empires, the Greeks should have lost to the Persians, Alexander the Great should never have reached the Indus River, the Mongols should never have approached the Adriatic, and Julius Caesar should never have conquered the Gauls. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that numbers alone are a poor predictor of military outcomes. That’s not to say that numbers don’t matter. They obviously do. But so do other things, such as leadership, economies, technology, tactics, strategies, grit, faith, morale, and many other tangible and intangible factors that play a role in determining the outcomes of wars. The world is annoyingly complex, and analysts have no choice but to try to encompass at least some of that complexity in their predictions.

That’s easier said than done, with the result that the business of prediction usually entails invoking the ceteris paribus clause and “freezing” most of reality in the hope of approximating laboratory conditions and thereby zeroing in on the isolated cause and effect, in this case, numbers and victory. If everything except for numbers and outcomes is held constant, Russia wins easily. But “holding other things equal” cuts several ways. One can focus only on grit—an equally plausible move—and conclude that the Ukrainians win hands down. And if courageous leadership were all that mattered, then, once again, the Ukrainians would win. Ceteris paribus makes for elegant theories—such as neo-realism—but it also makes for poor policy advice, precisely because policymakers inhabit a complex world in which everything seems to matter. In sum, all analysts simplify, because more or less accurate prediction is impossible in an all-too-complex reality, but simplification also means that no one prediction can stand for the whole: pars pro toto does not apply. Grasping the whole, however, is devilishly difficult, and ordering the parts of the whole into something resembling a theoretically grounded, yet policy-relevant, prediction is even harder.

One consequence of these limitations is that the temptation to resort to ex cathedra assertions of the Truth is hard to resist precisely because it’s so easy and so definite. Consider the following statement: “In short, Russia is winning the war and there is little to suggest that any foreseeable political, economic, tactical or technological developments are likely to alter that fundamental reality.” The first part of that claim, that Russia is winning, can be tested empirically and is not a prediction. The evidence is at best ambiguous. Yes, Russia has gained some territory in the last few weeks, but no, its losses are massive. At best, its victory seems to be Pyrrhic and, thus, unsustainable. Despite claims that the Kremlin can draw on a virtually bottomless pool of potential conscripts, the reality is that it’s resorted to private military companies, hardened criminals, and foreign mercenaries to do the fighting, and dying. So, is Russia winning or losing?

The second part of the claim, about foreseeable developments, is categorically predictive—and wrong. One can easily foresee Putin’s overthrow, illness, or death (he is mortal, after all, and he’s alienated significant elements within the political and economic elites), accelerated economic decline, tactical incompetence, and technological backwardness. In fact, many Russian, Ukrainian, and Western analysts see these developments today, and not just in some distant future. Suppose one adopts a complex, multifaceted approach to Russia and its war against Ukraine. In that case, the simple predictions of imminent Russian victory made by numbers fetishists appear profoundly simplistic and, thus, useless. Russia has numbers on its side, but the regime is brittle, its supreme leader is cognitively challenged and prone to blunder, its armed forces are being ripped to shreds, its non-Russian nations are growing restive, its consumer economy is shrinking, inflation is high—and Ukraine’s partners in Europe and North America are increasingly aware of the existential danger that Putin poses to them.

Can a state with such weaknesses win a brutal war of attrition with Ukraine? Is time really on Russia’s side? At the very least, an appreciation of complexity may lead one to conclude that the answers are not self-evident. Alternatively, one can stick to numbers, but then it’s important to take the argument to its logical conclusion by turning the tables on the number of fetishists. Ukraine did well as long as the West provided it with the requisite number of weapons and ammunition. Ukraine began struggling when those supplies were reduced to a trickle. If numbers are all that matters, Russia is certain to lose as long as the West “outnumbers” Russia. The West surely can do so. The only question is whether it wants to—or, more precisely, whether House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson wants to. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...-russia-209764

[Jimbuna]

Russia-Ukraine war: Moscow ignores arrest warrants for Putin commanders

Russia has said it does not recognise arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for two top Russian commanders over alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

The court named Sergei Kobylash and Viktor Sokolov on Tuesday.

"We are not parties to the [Rome] statute - we do not recognise this," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

This is the second time warrants have been issued for Russians over the war in Ukraine.

The first was for President Vladimir Putin and his children's rights envoy.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Mr Peskov said: "This is not the first decision. We also know that there are various closed processes going on there, which are kept secret, and we treat such decisions accordingly."

Mr Peskov said the fact that Russia was not a signatory to the Rome Statute, the international treaty which created the ICC, meant Russia did not recognise the warrants.

It is unlikely Russian nationals will be extradited to face charges.

In a statement on Tuesday, the ICC said the latest warrants were issued because there were reasonable grounds to believe that the two suspects were responsible for "missile strikes carried out by the forces under their command against ... Ukrainian electric infrastructure".

The alleged crimes took place between October 2022 and March 2023, the ICC said.

The court said that the attacks caused civilian harm and damage that would have been clearly excessive to any military advantage.

The two men "are each allegedly responsible for the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects" and are also accused of the "crime against humanity of inhumane acts", the court said.

Mr Kobylash, 58, was the commander of long-range aviation for the Russian air force at the time of the alleged crimes.

Mr Sokolov, 61, was an admiral in the Russian navy who commanded the Black Sea Fleet during the period to which the charges relate, according to the ICC.

Last month, it was reported that he was dismissed after a series of successful Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian warships. However, his resignation has not been officially confirmed.

The two officers have not publicly commented on the issue.

Moscow has in the past denied targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, despite the wealth of evidence collected by Ukrainian and international investigators.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the latest move by the ICC.

"Every Russian commander who orders strikes against Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure must know that justice will be served," he posted on social media.

"Every perpetrator of such crimes must know that they will be held accountable."

The ICC investigates and brings to justice those responsible for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, intervening when national authorities cannot or will not prosecute.

In March last year, the ICC issued arrest warrants for President Putin and Russia's commissioner for children's rights, Maria Lvova-Belova. The warrants related to the alleged unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia.

Moscow denied the allegations and labelled the warrants as "outrageous".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68489266

[Dargo]

Ukraine announces 'worst nightmare' for Russian ships: 'This spring we go hunting'

"This spring we will go hunting." In a slick video accompanied by ominous music, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has been leaving little to the imagination for several weeks. The Russian Black Sea fleet will suffer even worse in the coming period than it already does, it sounds confident. With one ultimate grand prize: the Crimean bridge connecting the occupied peninsula to the Russian mainland. With a payload of more than a ton of explosives, moreover, they should be able to pierce both a warship and reinforced concrete pillars of bridges. "The Sea Babies will protect the Ukrainian sea from Russian warships and prevent the enemy from bombing our peaceful cities," said the SBU. In mid-February, the service launched a crowdfunding campaign to finance 35 of the rigs, which cost just over 200,000 euros each. That raised the targeted amount of nearly 300 million Ukrainian hryvnia (7.1 million euros) after 36 hours. On Wednesday afternoon, the SBU presented the first drone produced: named "Avdiivka," it is clear what Ukraine will soon seek revenge for.

Unmanned boats for military use are not new. They already made their appearance at the end of World War II, mainly for observation and patrol missions. Ukraine now claims to be the first country to develop an entire fleet of such craft in advanced form and deploy them in attack missions. In this way, according to military analysts, they have the potential to profoundly change warfare worldwide. For this reason, the West, too, is watching the Sea Babies and other sea drones developed entirely in Ukraine with great eyes. In particular, the MAGURA V5 - short for Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus - stands out. The smaller brother of the Sea Baby, with "only" a range of 800 kilometres and an explosive charge of 200 kilograms, was introduced in July 2023 and has already had some notable successes since then, with the sunken Russian patrol ship Sergei Kotov Tuesday morning as its latest victim (see map). In early February, the Russian corvette Ivanovets also sank, followed two weeks later by the landing ship Caesar Kunikov.

The advantages of naval drones are many: without its own navy and expensive warships, Ukraine hurts the Russian Black Sea fleet, which not so long ago was considered invincible. Since they are not manned, there is no risk of their own casualties, an aspect not to be underestimated now that Ukraine is facing major problems in its mobilization. Low cost also plays a role: according to unconfirmed reports, five MAGURAs were deployed Tuesday to sink the Sergei Kotov, bringing the cost of the operation to about 1.25 million euros. By contrast, Ukraine says the Sergei Kotov cost 60 million euros, killed 7 Russians and wounded at least 27. Ukraine, meanwhile, says it was able to take out up to a third of the Black Sea fleet. The exact figures are difficult to verify, but it has been clear for some time that Russia has been moving more and more ships in Crimea eastward to mainland ports like Novorossiejsk, farther away from the Ukrainian threat. This is boosting Ukrainian morale and hope as the land-based army is squeezed in several parts of the front.

Yet these are more than merely symbolic victories. Ukraine's campaign of attack in the western Black Sea in recent months has allowed it to open a new maritime corridor for merchant ships, which mainly transport grain from Ukrainian ports toward world markets. This benefits the economy significantly. It is also estimated that up to 20 percent of the missiles Russia launched toward Ukraine in the past were fired from ships in the Black Sea. This is now possible to a much lesser extent, which mainly benefits the cities on Ukraine's southern coast. Odessa, for example, is now mostly targeted via drones and much less with missiles than was previously the case. The Russian Defence Ministry, meanwhile, is keeping its lips tightly sealed, both about yesterday's attack and those of the weeks before. Russian military bloggers are not holding back, however, and are annoyed at what they see as Moscow's laxity in sinking its ships to the bottom of the sea. One of them, codenamed "Thirteenth," feared on Telegram that "if things continue like this, our Black Sea fleet will soon consist only of catamarans and rubber banana boats for vacationers. https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/oekra...acht~be36768d/

The Black Sea fleet is also important to protect the Kerch Bridge, this means Russia will need to risk further sinking of ships.

[mapuc]

Beautiful women whose mission it is to get top German politicians involved, while the act itself is secretly recorded and sent to the Russian intelligence service FSB.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.go..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Kyiv says seven dead as drone attack sinks Russian ship

Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea. TV Series 1964.

Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea. Ukraine 2024.

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by mapuc

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.go..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Beautiful women whose mission it is to get top German politicians involved, while the act itself is secretly recorded and sent to the Russian intelligence service FSB.

Markus

Wouldn't it be more effective as blackmail if the women were ugly?

[Skybird]

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de

Thiele finds this particularly worrying: "The Ukrainian bridgehead essentially consists of the bodies and personal weaponry of the Ukrainian soldiers. They have no protection worth mentioning and have to duck away in the event of Russian attacks."


He does not believe that the Ukrainians will be able to gather enough troops and material for a counterattack on the other side of the river.


"They are holding out there as a 'lost' force and are likely to pay a high price in terms of dead and wounded," he says. Surviving in the cold, wet, rats and other vermin also offers appalling conditions and little hope of improvement.

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Wouldn't it be more effective as blackmail if the women were ugly?

Certainly wouldn't want anyone thinking I'd tried to sleep with this broad.