Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

https://www.economist.com/by-invitat...a-game-changer


Reasonable - or wishful thinking? I am undecided.


If he is not mistaken there...
Couldn't it also simply mean - a lack of enthusiasm of media and public?

A Agreement on Security Co-operation alone with the UK is no game changer would get serious if the EU joined this agreement and why always those titles "game changer" that hyping will not make it real. I think that more military aid would be yeah I gone use it the game changer. Thinking Putin will change his mind when some country signs an agreement with Ukraine is wishful thinking. Just send Ukraine what it needs, then instead signing papers that will force Russia to withdraw.

[Jimbuna]

'Don't worry,' EU foreign affairs chief tells Ukrainians as ministers focus on Middle East

Arriving at the foreign affairs’ meeting this morning in Brussels, EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said: “The fact that we are engaged [in] looking for a solution in the Middle East doesn’t mean that we are not continuing supporting Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s foreign minister is expected to speak at today’s session via videoconference.

Don’t worry, don’t worry, Ukrainians have not to worry – European support continues as stronger as ever, and it will continue.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...lenskiy-latest

Talk is cheap at times.

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he had “very productive talks” with Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, who visited Kyiv today. The Ukrainian leader said the two countries would be able to resolve problematic issues.

Tusk underlined that Warsaw and Kyiv would work in a spirit of friendship to resolve differences.

Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s prime minister, said that he “discussed the free movement of goods across the border” with Tusk and that the sides agreed to resume intergovernmental consultations.

EU foreign ministers discussed support to Ukraine.
With ministers focusing much of their attention today on the situation in the Middle East, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, insisted that Ukrainians should not worry and that the EU’s support for Kyiv would continue as strong as ever.

Borrell also said Ukraine “needs more and faster military support now”.
Latvia’s foreign minister, Krišjānis Kariņš, said that “if we do not help Ukraine stop Russia now, it will be only all the more expensive for us later”.

Elina Valtonen, Finland’s foreign minister, said there’s a need to fulfil Ukraine’s immediate defence needs, but that Europe also needs to ramp up its defence industry and capabilities.

Zelenskiy announced a proposal aimed at granting ethnic Ukrainians and their descendants Ukrainian citizenship.

There is movement toward a meeting between Zelenskiy and Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, a senior Ukrainian official said.

The UK updated its travel advice “to advise against all but essential travel” to the regions of Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi in western Ukraine. Previously, there was advice against all travel to the whole of Ukraine.

The UK has provided satellite photographs of North Korean cargo shipments to Russia to a panel of UN experts.

The Kremlin has drawn up a bill to confiscate property and valuables from Ukraine war critics convicted of, among other crimes, “discrediting the Russian army” or calling for foreign sanctions.

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Turkey’s parliament will on Tuesday vote on Sweden’s accession to NATO, CNN Turk reported, ending more than a year of delays that severely strained Ankara’s ties with Western allies. Turkey’s ratification would leave Hungary as the last holdout in the accession process, which Sweden and its neighbour Finland began in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/w...bership-Report

[Jimbuna]

I'd rather they threw Hungary out and got on with it.

[Jimbuna]

'Send back our husbands' - Russian women in rare protest

In a function room on the edge of Moscow, something unusual is happening.

A group of women are publicly criticising the Russian authorities. Their husbands are among the 300,000 reservists mobilised by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the war in Ukraine in autumn 2022.

And they want them home.

"When will our husbands be considered to have discharged their military duty?" asks Maria. "When they're brought back with no arms and legs? When they can't do anything at all because they're just vegetables? Or do we have to wait for them to be sent back in zinc coffins?"

The women met via social media and have formed a group called The Way Home. They have differing views on the war. Some claim to support it. Others are sceptical about the Kremlin's "special military operation". What seems to unite them is the belief that the mobilised men have done their fair share of the fighting and should be back home with their families.

It is an opinion the authorities do not share.

In Russia public criticism of anything related to the war comes with a risk. Most of the speakers choose their words very carefully. They know there's a string of laws in place now in Russia for punishing dissent. Their frustration, though, is palpable.

"To begin with we trusted our government," Antonina says. "But should we trust them now? I don't trust anyone."

Members of the group are here to share their stories with a local councillor, Boris Nadezhdin. He has been critical of the "special military operation" from the outset.

Curiously Mr Nadezhdin is one of the few government critics who has been allowed onto national television since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He's an occasional guest on TV talk shows.

Right now, the politician is trying to get on the ballot for the presidential election. He maintains that the war has damaged Vladimir Putin's domestic popularity.

"Putin was very popular in Russia because after the 1990s he brought stability and security," Mr Nadezhdin tells me. "Stability and security were the main reason for supporting Putin. Now more and more people have already understood that stability and security are finished."

Russian women campaigning for the return of their mobilised husbands, sons or brothers have come in for criticism from different quarters. Opponents of the war have little sympathy. They condemn the men for obeying the mobilisation order and for taking part in the war.

Supporters of the Kremlin portray the women as Western stooges.

In a recent interview with the Fontanka news site, Russian MP Andrei Kartapolov, who heads the Russian Duma's defence committee, claimed that the call for demobilisation was the work of "[Russia's] enemies". He appeared to suggest that the Ukrainian military or the CIA was behind it.

Mr Kartapolov also invoked World War Two.

"Can you imagine a delegation of wives coming to the Kremlin in autumn 1942 and telling Stalin: 'Let those men who were called up in 1941 go home. They've been fighting for a year already.' No-one would ever have thought of doing that."

Maria Andreeva, whose husband and cousin have been drafted and despatched to Ukraine, finds Mr Kartapolov's comments insulting.

"He dares to liken the special military operation to the Second World War," Maria tells me. "Back then Russia's aim was survival. We'd been attacked. There was full mobilisation and martial law. It's the total opposite of what is happening now."

Maria says that she is not only campaigning to bring back her family members. She wants to prevent more Russians being called up and sent to the front line.

"We do not want a second wave of mobilisation," she says. "We're against civilians being used in a military conflict. And we want all Russian citizens to understand this could affect them, too.

"Some people act like ostriches. They stick their heads in the sand and try not to think about what's happening. I can understand them. It's hard to accept that, in your country, the state doesn't need you to be happy - it just treats you as biological material. But if people want to survive, sooner or later they need to recognise this and say that they don't agree."

How likely is a "second wave" of mobilisation in Russia? Last December President Putin appeared to rule it out - for now. Live on Russian TV the Kremlin leader claimed that in 2023 the Russian authorities had managed to recruit nearly half a million volunteers to fight in Ukraine.

"Why do we need mobilisation? As things stand there is no need," the Kremlin leader concluded.

Of course, "as things stand" doesn't mean "never going to happen". Situations can change.

For example, in March 2022 President Putin declared: "Conscripted soldiers are not participating and will not participate in the fighting. There will not be an additional call-up of reservists, either. Only professional soldiers are taking part."

"Partial mobilisation" was announced six months later.

To raise awareness Maria and other wives of mobilised reservists have started a new tradition. Every Saturday they don white headscarves and travel into the centre of Moscow. Near the Kremlin walls they lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Red carnations are placed by the Eternal Flame. It is their form of peaceful protest.

On its Telegram channel The Way Forward explains that these flowers are for honouring "the lives of loved ones. To honour the memory of those killed in all wars. To honour the memory of our guys."

The group also believes that flower-laying is a way of saying "never again".

But how aware is Russian society? How much interest is there from the public in what the families of mobilised reservists are saying? Antonina says that since her partner was drafted, she hasn't felt much support from those around her. When he received his call-up papers in October 2022, he'd asked friends to keep an eye out for Antonina.

"They invited me to celebrate new year with them a year ago," she says. "But all evening they kept telling me that my husband was a total mug for going there [to Ukraine]."

Antonina claims that, despite being diagnosed with stomach ulcers, her partner was deployed to an assault unit in Ukraine. She says that he telephoned her on 4 December.

"He was crying. He was frightened. It sounded like he was saying goodbye."

She says he called again on 13 December. That was the last time she heard from him. Antonina says she's since been told that her partner was wounded in action.

"There are some people who want to fight. Who volunteer for it and sign contracts," Antonina says. "Let them fight. But send us back our husbands who don't want to be there. They've done their duty to the motherland. Send them home.

"I used to have enormous respect for Vladimir Putin. Now I'm more neutral. I still find it hard to believe that he knows this kind of thing is happening. But if he really does see us as traitors and outcasts for wanting our husbands back, I don't understand why he'd have this attitude towards citizens who once voted for him."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68056939

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Russia loses 400 soldiers per square kilometer in Ukraine, Umerov says

In a recent address during the opening of the Defense Contact Group meeting (Ramstein format), Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov highlighted Ukraine’s resilience in the face of Russian aggression. He pointed out that despite Russia’s significant military operations, they struggled to achieve their objectives and suffered heavy losses. Umerov stated that Russia is currently losing approximately 400 soldiers for every square kilometer of Ukrainian territory captured. Additionally, Russia used six times more artillery shells than Ukrainian forces, yet it took them a year to capture Bakhmut and Mariinka. Umerov highlighted the significance of defense technologies, which will play a central role in Ukraine’s defense agenda for 2024. He pointed out that while Russia had invested heavily in FPV drones, Ukraine had made progress in developing its countermeasures.

“Despite a sixfold artillery advantage, the enemy failed to achieve any significant results. Imagine how the situation on the battlefield would change if the proportions were 1 to 1,” Umerov said. In his address, Umerov encouraged collaboration and investment in defense technologies, joint production, and long-term contracts with interested companies. He emphasized that Ukraine could outsmart Russian forces through an asymmetric approach, including technology integration, precise decision-making, and coordination. “In just two months, the terrorist regime unleashed over 600 rockets and more than 1000 Shahed drones on Ukrainian cities. The number of Shahed drones launched increased by over a third,” Umerov said.

Despite facing thousands of rocket attacks from Russia in recent months, Umerov mentioned that Ukraine’s air defense capabilities had improved significantly. The country had also focused on building fortifications and investing in technologies to enhance its defense. “Despite their resources and advantage in weapon production, Russia has not made significant progress toward achieving its strategic objectives,” Umerov said. “The entire Russian military machine is operating at full capacity to attack small Ukrainian villages.” Umerov also thanked countries that have taken the lead in developing coalition capabilities:

• The United States, Denmark, and the Netherlands – Aviation Coalition
• France – Artillery Coalition
• Great Britain and Norway – Naval Coalition
• Germany and Poland – Armored Coalition
• Estonia and Luxembourg – IT Coalition
• Lithuania – Demining Coalition

He also expressed his gratitude to the United States, France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Norway, and other partners for military cooperation. Umerov added that recently Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense established a two-tier procurement system based on NATO principles. In conclusion, Minister Umerov conveyed Ukraine’s determination to defend its sovereignty and expressed gratitude to its international partners for their support in developing Ukraine’s military potential. He underlined the importance of innovation and technology in maintaining a strategic advantage in the ongoing war.

“We can outsmart the enemy by applying an asymmetric approach. Through technology integration, training, precise decision-making, and coordination. By improving personnel selection, supply chain management, and digital solutions. This will provide us with technological and strategic superiority,” he concluded. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/...e-umerov-says/

[Skybird]

The Turkish parliament ratified the Swedish membership - but Erdoghan needs to sign it next.

Next hurdle is Orban. Who wants frozen money from the EU. Thats the EU whose Super-Uschi is being sued by the EU parliament for having allowed him a first rate of money paid out already.

[Jimbuna]

The Russian defence ministry says a military plane has crashed in Belgorod, near the Ukrainian border.

"On board were 65 captured Ukrainian army servicemen being transported for exchange, six crew members and three escorts," the ministry says.

The local governor says there are no survivors - the BBC cannot yet verify who was on board, or what caused the plane to crash.

A spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence did say a prisoner exchange had been planned for today.

Verified video shows a plane going down near the village of Yablonovo, 70km (44 miles) to the north-east of Belgorod.

Russia's foreign ministry accuses Ukraine of shooting down the plane - but provides no evidence.

The plane was flying from the Chkalovsky air base near Moscow to Belgorod, Russia says.

[Jimbuna]

Germany's Scholz says other EU countries must do more for Ukraine

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has called on European countries to do more to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia's ongoing invasion.

"The contributions that the European states have so far earmarked for 2024 are not yet large enough," Scholz said in an interview with Die Zeit newspaper. "Europe must discuss what each country can contribute so that we can significantly increase our support."

Ukraine must be able to defend its territory, Scholz said, "and this must not fail due to a lack of air defence, artillery, tanks or ammunition.

"It is my firm conviction that Europe must do more to support Ukraine in the defence of its own country," he told the newspaper.

Scholz also complained that Germany has faced frequent criticism from other European Union countries over its support for Ukraine despite providing extensive aid for the country.
"I am rather irritated that I have to constantly face criticism in Germany that the government is doing too little and is too hesitant. Yet we are doing more than all other EU states, much more," Scholz said. "That's why I'm currently on the phone a lot with my counterparts and asking them to do more."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, meanwhile, reiterated that he continues to press Scholz's government about acquiring German-made Taurus cruise missiles.

Scholz has so far rejected the delivery of the advanced missiles to Ukraine, apparently out of concern that firing on Russian territory with the German missiles would lead to a further escalation of the conflict.

Kuleba once again sought to address those concerns in an interview with the news outlets Bild, Welt.tv and Politico.

Dmytro Kuleba reiterated that Ukraine is seeking the advanced missiles from Germany in order to strike Russian military infrastructure on occupied Ukrainian territory, not to hit targets in Russia.

"We don't need a Taurus to attack Moscow," Kuleba emphasized in the interview.

In the German parliament last week, lawmakers from Scholz's three-party coalition blocked a motion from the conservative opposition CDU/CSU bloc to deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

However, many coalition lawmakers, especially from the Greens and the market-oriented Free Democrats (FDP), have expressed personal support for shipping Taurus missiles to Ukraine despite voting against the motion.

At a European Union summit next week, national leaders plan to discuss further arms aid for Ukraine, partly at the request of Scholz.

Ukraine has been fending off Russia's full-scale military invasion for almost two years, and is heavily dependent on Western military aid.

Wednesday marks the 700th day since the full-scale war began, although lower-level fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine in 2014, followed by Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...85d3ecba&ei=30

[Dargo]

The Hungarian government still supports NATO membership for Sweden. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made this known by telephone Wednesday to Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of the military alliance. This appears to remove the last obstacle to Sweden's joining the military alliance. "I also stressed that we continue to urge the Hungarian parliament to approve Sweden's accession and complete ratification as soon as possible," Orbán wrote in a message on X. The parliament returns from recess in mid-February.

[Jimbuna]

Viktor who?

[Skybird]

The German weasel does its egg-dance again.

https://www-dw-com.translate.goog/de..._x_tr_pto=wapp

In contrast, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Chairwoman of the Bundestag's Defense Committee, does not see the ring swap as a good solution. "Ukraine needs Taurus, and it needs it now," she said. The sense of a ring swap is not clear to her. "Then Taurus will no longer be available for the Bundeswehr and Ukraine will still have none. Storm Shadow is not an equivalent replacement. In this respect, the proposal is unsuitable," said the FDP politician.

Green politician Anton Hofreiter was even more critical. The ring swap idea "exemplifies the weakness" of Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) in supporting Ukraine, Hofreiter told dpa. The message is: "Great Britain can deliver, but Germany cannot." An exchange in rings would be better than nothing. But the German Taurus system is significantly better than the weapons systems of the allies, as it can hardly be disrupted by electronic warfare, emphasized the Chairman of the Bundestag's European Affairs Committee.

The Taurus is superior to Storm Shadow/SCALP. It is better hardened against electronic jamming, can navigate completely without GPS if GPS is taken out due to jamming, has a significantly higher range and a slightly bigger Booom - but that in a warhead designed to penetrate through thicker layers of concrete.

Babble Olaf is concerned however that it might interrupt the Russian logistics chain over the Kerch bridge. He cares very much for Russian troops not running out of supplies. He thinks that would escalate the war.

Yeah. Dont ask. There are things in this universe for which there are no answers.

Two days ago there was an essay in a German newspaper (now behind a paywall unfortunately) pointing out that neither the US nor Germany have a real interest in Russia loosing the war. They still want to just nudge and encourage it to voluntarily pull out and that way ending the West's misery. The great art of pedagogics at work. My mind is not smart enough to wrap itself around this complex matter. I assume its based on this old wisdom according to which you first must loose all before you can be set free.

Better of course it is if you make somebody else loosing in your place.

[Jimbuna]

Igor Girkin shot down a passenger jet, then insulted Putin. Which one put him in jail?

The last time I saw Igor Girkin was five years ago in the stairwell of a Moscow news agency.

"Would you consider giving me an interview?" I asked. "No," he replied sharply and scurried away.

I saw him again today. No stairwell. This time, Girkin was in a caged dock surrounded by police in the Moscow City Court.

Along with other media we were allowed in to film him for just one minute before the end of his trial.

A police dog kept barking. Girkin found that amusing. The verdict less so. Minutes later he was found guilty on extremism charges and sentenced to four years in a penal colony.

This wasn't his first conviction.

In The Hague in 2022, in absentia, Girkin was found guilty of the murder of 298 people: the passengers and crew of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17.

The Boeing jet had been shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014 by Russian-controlled forces in the early stages of Russia's war there.

Girkin was one of three men sentenced to life imprisonment. A judgement he ignored.

A year after we'd met in the stairwell, I managed to get through to Girkin on the phone and ask him about the Hague.

"I do not recognise the authority of the Dutch court on this matter," he told me.

"I am a military man and I am not going to accept that a civilian court in a foreign country has the authority to convict a person who took part in someone else's civil war, only because their civilians were killed.

"Do you know who shot down [the plane]?"

"The rebels didn't shoot down the Boeing. I have nothing more to say."

"If it wasn't the rebels, then was it Russian soldiers?" I asked.

"That's it. Goodbye." He hung up.

Now he is going to prison. But not for mass murder. And not for life.

So, who exactly is Girkin - also known under his pseudonym as Igor Strelkov - and why has a Moscow court sent him to jail?

He is a former FSB officer in Russia's domestic security service. In 2014 he played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine's Donbas region: a conflict engineered and orchestrated by Moscow.

He organised and commanded pro-Russia militias in eastern Ukraine.

The Dutch court would later rule that Russia had been in control of the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine and that Girkin had helped to bring the Buk missile system into Ukraine that was used to shoot down flight MH17.

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, ultranationalist Girkin became a prominent pro-war blogger.

He became increasingly critical of the way the Russian authorities were waging the war: not hard enough, in his view.

He founded a hard line nationalist movement called The Club of Angry Patriots.

His problems began when he started to take that anger out on President Vladimir Putin.

Public criticisms of the Russian president turned to insults. In a post last year, Girkin described Putin as "a non-entity" and "a cowardly waste of space".

A few days later he was arrested. Now he's been tried and convicted.

Of course, a four-year prison sentence is mild in comparison to other recent punishments delivered by Russian courts.

Last year pro-democracy activist Vladimir Kara-Murza was sentenced to a quarter of a century behind bars after being convicted of treason, a case he and his supporters insist was politically motivated.

How would the "Angry Patriots" react to Girkin's prison term? Would they pour on to the streets in protest?

Not exactly. A few dozen supporters gathered outside the Moscow City Court to chant "Freedom to Strelkov!" but there was little hint of optimism in their voices.

"They've put a Russian national patriot on trial," Denis tells me. "I hope our people wake up and fight. Unfortunately, we don't see much pushback. Everyone seems to be hiding away."

Also in the crowd was retired colonel and outspoken ultranationalist Vladimir Kvachkov.

Having informed me that "Russia will always be the enemy of the Anglo-Saxon West" and assured me that the break-up of the United Kingdom was inevitable, Mr Kvachkov claimed that Girkin was being punished for "fighting against the system."

In recent years the "system" concentrated on clearing the Russian political landscape of pro-democracy, pro-Western critics and challengers.

A prison sentence for Girkin suggests the Russian authorities have now decided to crackdown on critics from the opposite end of spectrum: the so-called ultra-patriots.

Last year's mutiny by Wagner mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin may be the reason.

The Putin system survived the challenge. But that drama will have alerted the Kremlin to the potential dangers from highly motivated nationalistic and patriotic elements in Russian society.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68091877

[Dargo]