Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Looks like a part of the weapons who have been send to Ukraine has disappeared



https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.go..._x_tr_pto=wapp

https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/1...D%20SECURE.PDF

Markus

Do not think you can conclude they "disappeared" more they could not be tracked, this does not mean they never arrived.

[Skybird]

Corruption still is much alive in Ukraine. Some weapons by the West have travelled the wrong, dark channels for sure. It was to be expected. Keep the quota low and make sure no critical stuff ends up in the wrong hands.



And shoot the offenders if you catch them.

[Dargo]

U.S. officials have not properly tracked military aid for Ukraine, according to a new report from the U.S. Department of Defense, The New York Times reported on Jan. 11. The Pentagon has no evidence, however, that any weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been used inappropriately.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

^ Victory is near...! Once again...!!!
-------------------
https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/der-uk..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Tja. I am divided over this problem. I think it depends on whether the person feels a loving commitment to the country in their heart and mind or not. One person feels patriotic love of country, the other does not. Thats how it is. Where it is given, and all the more so where one allows oneself to be cared for, getting pampered by the country of residence, the exercise of such rights also results in a moral imperative not to shirk obligations in times of need. Those who do not claim such state and national benefits and feel no solidarity with their place of residence, lack this sense of home, which is a prerequisite for showing a willingness to sacrifice for one's homeland, and nothing can be done to change this by state force.

What would I do? Would I go to war "for Germany"? No, you can easily see from the years of critical postings I have written about Germany how angry and frustrated I am with this self-destructive country and its neurotically compulsive population. I have repeatedly described myself as an alien who has crashed on an alien planet, and that is true. But there are a small - and ever-shrinking - handful of people who are close to me, to whom I am unconditionally loyal, and for whom I have already made sacrifices, and for whom I would put my life on the line. This is quite different from putting oneself on service for ideological delusions that are politically dictated by the EU, by political parties or by the German government, to "to protect a country" that one ultimately despises. And often these claims raised border rightout lies.

As I said in the beginning, I am deeply divided over this problem. Its a dilemma. And a dilemma is characterised by the fact that there is no real satisfying solution to it. And, like every human, once brutal violence like this hits you right into the face, I and we all may under the pressure of the situation unfolding react totally differently than we previously assumed we would, or claimed we would. I have seen the consequences of war in place, and I was confronted to defend myself against criminals and street crime with force, so that gives me an empirically validated idea of how I tick in that sort of situation. But military combat I never needed to face and conduct myself. Thankfully. And a battlefield is not the same like the scene of attempted street robbery. Its miles apart.

So in the end I am honest enough to admit: I have no clue what I really would do if I were in their place. I think nobody who has not experienced battle himself can know in advance.

If - God forbid - you find yourself in this decision-making situation, you will find out soon enough. Until then, it is best not to judge others, lest you be judged.
-----------
BTW, I am close to getting 57, and have knee problems, I used to be lean and "zäh" (tough), now have much less of lean muscles and am a bit more well-rounded and am out of training and have no physical stamina worth to be mentioned. I could not do these things anymore even if I would want to. I am metabolically healthy, and thats it, but that does not give you strength in muscle power, breath and enduring stamina.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Two M2A2 Bradley IFVs of the 47th mechanized brigade (trained by NATO instructors) fighting against a Russian T-90M 'Breaktrough' tank in Stepove, north of Avdiivka. The Bradley's immobilized the tank after which an FPV drone finished off the tank. The crew ran off. Video on X https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...49986188882246 That is how you win, not by meat waves or steamroller artillery



"This is a place where one could go crazy. It's so disgusting. There's another one here, and his head was torn off. I hope the same thing will not happen to us and that we will return home," says the kadyrovite. In this footage, the kadyrovite describes the state of affairs at the front: the soldiers of Putin's army are starving, drinking water from a puddle and suffering huge losses. As the author of the video himself admits, Russians are simply sitting in dugouts and are afraid to come out. And a short time later there was a message about Hamzat's serious injury and his coma. Video on X https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...16391154843930 Half of the battalion refuse to fight Russia can have the numbers but when 50% refuses you can only send them by gunpoint that is gone to happen the "political commissar" and SMERSH reappears.



Warehouse wherehouse Washouse

Russian doctrine: ...like oh what should we do ... oh you know what would work what we tried in Bakhmut yeah but wasn't that like a massive failure resulting in a coup yeah, but you know it's different time now isn't it is different place try it again oh it's even worse oh brilliant let's try that sink in you know what we did in Avdiivka, in Vuhledar and in trying to cross the Donetsk river oh yeah what we lost like hundreds and hundreds of pieces of vehicle and thousands troops yeah yeah yeah let's try that but this time you love this, this time in Krinky all right yeah it might work because it begins with a K yeah yeah yeah exactly. The only conclusion you can derive from the evidence that we are seeing is that the Russians are not able to adequately learn and adapt in what they're doing they are adapting in certain areas like drone usage (also not 100% there are areas on the front where Ukraine is drone boss) and technology but in terms of just on the battlefield tactics there is an awful lot of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different result. What Russia could directly out of stock is gone, what they produce is getting destroyed monthly this for about 5 months, what they get from North Korea is not secure to use and all those millions of shells from the past had little results Iran drones are not that good and mostly get shoot down. The longer this goes on, the worse it will get for a pariah with pariah friends that can not bring the stuff to the table for a victory. Ukraine destroys 90% of every heavy equipment the Russians send towards the front line, according to Russian bloggers.

Russia's winter offensive, a massive failure so far? After 3 months it seems that Russia's winter offensive is showing the first clear signs of stagnation, fatigue, and we can say that at least temporarily has run out of steam. No significant advances from the Russian side for the past 2-3 weeks, while as many Russian sources on telegram admit, Ukrainians have begun to push them back in Kupyansk and Robotyne fronts after ousting them from the outskirts of Novomykhailivka, Donetsk front during the previous week.

In contrast, Ukraine's summer offensive which took place during June-September (approx. 4 months) in 2023 was considered a huge failure by the Russian and Russo-neutral sources but on the other hand after 3 months of full-scale offensive the Russians haven't completed their goal of taking Avdiivka yet and the territorial gains made all over the frontline are roughly no more than 30-40% of those made by Ukraine during 4 months of their offensive in summer 2023. How is Ukraine's offensive a huge failure but the Russian offensive so far is being considered a success?

Today many sources are reporting that Russians were pushed back in Kupyansk front and south of Robotyne. Previously Russian forces were repelled near Novomykhailivka and Terny. https://twitter.com/MilitaryLabb/sta...15483360669889

We see the Russian now bombing (Avdiivka) on large scale. Russia resort to these sorts of large-scale bombing campaigns when they don't have the forces to attack on the ground because they didn't have the forces on the ground to successfully assault. We've also seen these sorts of bombing and shelling campaigns mark kind of the end of an offensive period where they will then transition to a more attritional phase where they try to destroy all the defensive fortifications etc.

[mapuc]

^ And Ukraine does not have the strength to push through the Russian defenses.

It is as some of you mentioned before-World War 1 over again in modern version.

Even if Ukraine should get a lot more military supply it would not be enough. They lack manpower-Around 500.000 men.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ And Ukraine does not have the strength to push through the Russian defenses.

It is as some of you mentioned before-World War 1 over again in modern version.

Even if Ukraine should get a lot more military supply it would not be enough. They lack manpower-Around 500.000 men.

Markus

This is not World War 1 Ukraine is in active defence that means they will do offensive operations (not allowing Putin a victory is also a win in the long term for Ukraine) if opportunity is there, what Ukraine lack in manpower it will need in precision (even with todays' shortages Ukraine attrite the Russian army in large). Like we NATO do not have/had the manpower and never had the huge amount of equipment, we build up better and precise equipment to counter Russia. We and Ukraine are better trained and lead than the Kremlin led army structure only Stalin let his generals free hand to a certain point and for a short period the winter war (Finland) or first year of Operation Barbosa is an example if you let politicians do wars nowadays Putin decides military and the command structure of the Russian army is one of its failures.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

This is not World War 1 Ukraine is in active defence that means they will do offensive operations (not allowing Putin a victory is also a win in the long term for Ukraine) if opportunity is there, what Ukraine lack in manpower it will need in precision. Like we NATO do not have/had the manpower and never had the huge amount of equipment, we build up better and precise equipment to counter Russia. We and Ukraine are better trained and lead than the Kremlin led army structure only Stalin let his generals free hand to a certain point and for a short period the winter war (Finland) or first year of Operation Barbosa is an example if you let politicians do wars nowadays Putin decides military and the command structure of the Russian army is one of its failures.

I'm sorry but I can't see any of them win this war within foreseeable future.

Ukraine may be better in destroying Russian materials and kill thousands of soldiers due to the Russian military doctrine. Russia has an almost inexhaustible resources of men and material.

10.000 men lost is just statistic for the Russian, for the Ukrainian it would mean disaster.

This mean Russia does not have the skills to make a push through.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I'm sorry but I can't see any of them win this war within foreseeable future.

Ukraine may be better in destroying Russian materials and kill thousands of soldiers due to the Russian military doctrine. Russia has an almost inexhaustible resources of men and material.

10.000 men lost is just statistic for the Russian, for the Ukrainian it would mean disaster.

This mean Russia does not have the skills to make a push through.

Markus

Russia has no inexhaustible resources of men and material, what it builds up in +70 years is gone what is left is cannibalized or so bad it can not be used another thing if this was so big why would they import all that shells and barrels. Russian inexhaustible stock is a fairy tail Russia men lost can be a statistic, but those lose will have an effect on his production war production or normal production it will hurt Russia does not have a gulag in size as in WWII and that it is not called a general mobilisation tells they are not only statistics yeah the poor are but not the Moscow and St Petersburg regions not even a dictator needs to keep the nomenklatura and these regions happy else it could go wrong.

Russia was short of around 4.8 million workers in 2023 and the problem will remain acute in 2024 Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said last month that Russia's depleted labour force was causing acute labour shortages and threatening economic growth as Moscow pumps fiscal and physical resources into the military. Hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country following what the Kremlin calls its special military operation in Ukraine which began in February 2022, including highly-qualified IT specialists. The outflows intensified after President Vladimir Putin, who earlier this month lauded a historically low jobless rate of 2.9%, announced a partial military mobilisation of around 300,000 recruits in September 2022. The number of vacancies in the total workforce rose to 6.8% by the middle of 2023, up from 5.8% a year earlier If we extend the data presented by Rosstat (the official statistics agency) to the entire workforce, the shortage of workers in 2023 will tentatively amount to 4.8 million people. It noted that Labour Minister Anton Kotyakov had said that workforce shortages were felt hard in the manufacturing, construction and transportation sectors, forcing companies to raise wages to try to attract more employees. Tatyana Zakharova of Russia's University of Economics "the labour shortages would probably persist next year, as vacancies for factory workers, engineers, doctors, teachers and other professions would be especially hard to fill." She cited poor demographics and "the migration of the population" as among the reasons for the labour shortages.

Economics and war are one you need labour to run war production on top of domestic production, if you have a shortage there you have a shortage of men to call up because these are the age you want in an army. You can send your labour force to the front, but they will not come back, so either destroy your economy or get a way out of your war. In Ukraine there are more than 500,000 Russian men that can not win you really think a couple of hundred thousands can to be victorious Putin needs to conquer a thousand square kilometres it now moves forward inch by inch in a year.

[mapuc]

The air defense Ukraine got from us isn't 100 % Effective

- The statistics for the night's attacks show that Ukraine needs more missile defense systems. It only succeeded in shooting down 8 out of 37 incoming missiles, says Claus Borg Reinholdt.

https://nyheder-tv2-dk.translate.goo..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Secondly it hasn't gone a month since the last massive air attack on Ukraine.

Markus