Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

[Dargo]

Russia is working to subvert French support for Ukraine, documents show

From the top floor of the house he shares here with a senior Russian diplomat — to whom he rents the apartment below — the man who helped bankroll the French presidential bid of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has been working on plans to propel pro-Moscow politicians to power.

“We have to change all the governments … All the governments in Western Europe will be changed,” Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, a former member of the European Parliament for Le Pen’s party, said in an interview. “We have to control this. Take the leadership of this.”... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...nce-far-right/

Russia's losses increase in 2023 – UK intelligence

UK Defence Intelligence has noted an increase in daily casualties in the Russian Federation's forces in the war against Ukraine and predicted that at this rate, the total number will cross the 500,000 mark by 2025. UK intelligence noted that in 2023, the average daily losses of Russian personnel, both killed and wounded, increased to almost 300 per day, which is more than in 2022.

"The increase in daily averages, as reported by the Ukrainian authorities, almost certainly reflects the degradation of Russia’s forces and its transition to a lower quality, high quantity mass army since the ‘partial mobilisation’ of reservists in September 2022. It will likely take Russia five to ten years to rebuild a cohort of highly trained and experienced military units."

UK Defence Intelligence noted that if the current rate of losses continues through 2024, Russia's losses in terms of those killed and wounded will reach more than half a million by 2025. UK intelligence pointed out that during the nine years of their war in Afghanistan, the USSR lost approximately 70,000 people. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/30/7435196/

[Skybird]

However, these losses can be afforded and so do not decide the war. The demogrphic problems for Ukraine weigh much heavier. So does the significantly higher weight of the Russian military production.



I linked a text some posts ago that argued that in 7-10 years, at this rate they might have "modenrized" the equipment of their entire army, by "getting rid" of their current stuff and having replaced it with newer stuff.



Plus they learn form the war they currently run. I preict ion 5-10 years Russia will be boith mor ednageoruzs and moe capable to us. I do not see that European states read thge sign of the times and scrablew to make use of the time they still have by beefing up military production capacities by the needed scale to make a difference.



We are wasting time. Possible that in the end we - our children - will regret that. Ich könnte kotzen bei so viel politischer Lahmarschigkeit. Many still have not heard the shot.



The US must focus on Taiwan. Europoe must focus on Russia and learn to relief the Americans in Europe and build the capabilities to do that. Instead: wasting money and time on EU green deals policies, m,igrations chaos, gender-drivel and moral lecturing of the rest of the world that does no longer listen to the West since longer time already.


But what do I expect? We have no politicians with political foresight and strategic longterm understandig anymore, all these dubious figures are managers of their own careers only. Whats the alternative to the Macrons, Sunaks and Scholzs and Bidens of the present? Only populists who have one thing in common: they all are Moscow-friendly.



No sign for optimism in sight. None. I'm already pissed by 2024, and the year after as well.



Heck, i even start to hope that Trump wins. It would be a jump-kick right into the Europeans' faces, with boots that have spikes. Maybe that would wake them up. They would not have any right to complain - they then would have had years of warning time, and choosed to do nothing to make use of it. Well, some thign sthey did. But so little that I rate it as symbolic only. Deeds of conviction, of insight into the necessity, look differently.

[mapuc]

The Russian soldiers fight for truth and justice at the front line and are the true heroes of Russia. They are admired by the Russian people.

This is how it sounds on Sunday afternoon in Russian President Vladimir Putin's New Year's speech, which is broadcast on Russian television

My response (Was looking for the puke smiley)

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.go..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

[Dargo]

Killing Russians By The Truckload Around Avdiivka, Ukraine’s M-2 Fighting Vehicles Are Showing How Russia Loses—And Ukraine Wins

On Oct. 10, elements of two Russian field armies—together possessing 40,000 troops and thousands of vehicles—attacked the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka, just northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. It was the first and main attack of Russia’s third annual winter offensive in its 22-month wider war on Ukraine. And it failed. More accurately, it has been failing. The Russian operation around Avdiivka is ongoing. But after advancing a short distance—a mile or so—north and south of the city last month, the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies at best have stalled. Some analysts believe they actually are losing ground around the village of Stepove on Avdiivka’s northern flank.

It’s no secret that Moscow’s new strategy is to outlast Kyiv—to win a war of attrition. But the Russians can’t win a war of attrition if they continue to lose many more vehicles and troops than the Ukrainians lose. In that context, the battle for Avdiivka has been a disaster for Russia. It’s exactly the kind of fight the Kremlin can’t afford if its goal is to grind away Ukraine’s military strength. Around Avdiivka, it’s the Russians who are getting ground down.

The numbers tell the story. The Russian field armies have lost at least 411 tanks, fighting vehicles and artillery pieces trying, and failing, to capture Avdiivka. The Ukrainian brigades garrisoning Avdiivka—including the 110th, 57th and 47th Mechanized and the 1st Tank—have lost just 30 pieces of heavy equipment. Russian casualties—dead and maimed—exceed 13,000 in just this one sector. Ukraine’s own casualties likely have been much lighter. Perhaps a few thousand. Yes, the Russian army in Ukraine—at least 400,000 strong—is larger than Ukraine’s own front-line force is. Yes, Russia can mobilize many more replacement troops than Ukraine can mobilize. Yes, Russian industry out-produces Ukrainian industry.

No, Russia’s resources are not limitless.

This is apparent in Avdiivka, where the Russians repeatedly have switched up tactics in order to preserve one portion of their force or another. In October, Russian attacks around Avdiivka were heavily mechanized, with tanks and fighting vehicles leading the way. When the tanks and fighting vehicles ran afoul of Ukrainian mines, drones and artillery, Russian commanders pulled back their remaining vehicles—and sent in the infantry, on foot. When the infantry got massacred, the Russians deployed more explosives-laden drones in an effort to sever Ukrainian forces’ supply lines. That didn’t work, either. Yesterday, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky himself safely traveled to Avdiivka—and shot a selfie within view of the front line. The most recent Russian attacks on Avdiivka have included tanks and infantry. But in the most critical northern part of the battlefield, in and around Stepove, the conditions—for the Russians—are unforgiving.

It’s there in Stepove that the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, with its mix of American-made M-2 Bradley fighting vehicles and German-made Leopard 2 tanks, is killing Russians by the truckload. To the east, Stepove abuts east-west treelines and a north-south railway. “Ukraine is using the railroad treelines to isolate Stepove from the rest of the battlefield,” analyst Donald Hill wrote in fellow analyst Tom Cooper’s newsletter.

“As Russian troops and vehicles move out from [neighboring] Krasnohorivka across the open fields, Ukrainian artillery and drones reduce their numbers,” Hill explained. “They remain under fire until the assault loses momentum and stops.” “Ukraine then counterattacks, sometimes with Leopards—and often with Bradleys raking the treelines with 25-millimeter cannon fire. Bradleys also transport small assault teams that clear out Russian stragglers from time to time. Once Stepove and the treelines by the railroad are clear, or mostly clear, of Russian troops, Ukraine pulls back to their functional defensive positions and waits for the next Russian attack.” “Constantly pushing the Russians back helps preserve the defensive positions Ukraine currently occupies,” Hill explained. “This tactic is much easier for the 47th Brigade to use because of the firepower of the Bradley, which can engage Russian armor and has done so, and its cannon fire is very effective against Russian infantry even when they are in cover.”

The 30-ton, 11-person M-2 with its side-mounted reactive armor effectively resists Russian rocket-propelled grenades. “This not only keeps the crew alive, it gives them the confidence to aggressively attack the Russians, which makes a huge difference,” Hill wrote. The 47th Brigade got all 190 M-2s that the United States pledged to the Ukrainian war effort early this year. The brigade has lost at least 30 M-2s. But it needs just a hundred of the vehicles fully to equip its battalions. All that is to say, the 47th Brigade isn’t hurting for firepower. And it’s found the perfect place to use it: Avdiivka. More specifically, Stepove. The Russians keep sending men and vehicles for the M-2 crews to chop to pieces. This is not a winning strategy for Russia. The Kremlin can build, and restore from long-term storage, at most 1,500 tanks and a couple thousand fighting vehicles a year.

Taking into account the need to backfill losses from 2022, Russian forces can afford to lose at most 50 tanks a month without depleting their overall armor holdings. The Avdiivka fight lately has pushed the Russians’ armor losses well above sustainable levels. The Kremlin drafted 300,000 fresh troops this year but, amid protests and labor-shortages, hasn’t yet begun a second mobilization. Extreme losses—at least 315,000 killed or severely wounded in 22 months—have contributed to what the RAND Corporation, a California think-tank, described as a “ticking social time-bomb” in Russia, a country with just 143 million people.

Ukraine, a country with 44 million people, also has lost a lot of soldiers: at least 70,000 killed and several times that number wounded. But in recent months the loss ratio—Russian losses compared to Ukrainian losses—greatly has favored Ukraine. Around Avdiivka, it might be 10 to one as those M-2 crews go about their bloody work. Say what you will about Russia’s material and manpower advantages and Russian society’s appetite for a cruel war of choice. Russia cannot sustain the kinds of losses it has experienced in the battle for Avdiivka. Not over the long term. And to be clear, Russia is counting on staying in the war for the long term. That’s its whole plan for victory. A plan that a few battalions of Ukrainian fighting vehicles have exposed as a farce. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...-ukraine-wins/

[vanjast]

So sad ye are .. to yearn for such yarns.

Sooner ye all learn that Putin was arrested/hanged, as with all biden, billary..etc.. the sooner you'd all wake up from ye slumber.

You've all being seeing nothing but a movie show from a deeper enemy.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by vanjast

So sad ye are .. to yearn for such yarns.

Sooner ye all learn that Putin was arrested/hanged, as with all biden, billary..etc.. the sooner you'd all wake up from ye slumber.

You've all being seeing nothing but a movie show from a deeper enemy.

Hanging arresting will not change anything, you are the one being lost, they play you. The ends never justify the means. Those who go down that road, who cast all morality aside, do not come back. You think you are driving the machine, and yet it’s driving you, and suddenly other hands than yours are on the wheel. Your option will only result in terror, widespread arrests and executions to crush the autonomous, self-governing free men to create a centralized, autocratic ruling elite. Criminalizing dissent, outlaw competing political parties, muzzled the press and instituted a system that strip all of their autonomy and rights. Like Maximilien Robespierre, Lenin “desired the good … but created evil.” Stalinism was not an aberration. It was the natural heir of Leninism.

[mapuc]

If the supply comes to an end in 2024 or decrease a lot-Then Ukraine will have difficulty in winning the war.

If the west gear up the supply in 2024 Ukraine can fight Russia one more year.

Markus

[August]

Well just think of this.


Putin is nearly as old as Stalin was when Iron Joe suffered a fatal stroke. Unlike the USSR with it's extensive political structure and complex ideology though I don't think the present regime will survive him. There will be too many factions vying for the fallen crown.

[Dargo]

Russia is already back to the Bolshevik planned economics spiced with fascist sauce it is cannibalizing its economy when this falls ultranationalist will try to take over this will be a bloody civil war zillion worse than the 1917-1923 civil war. But not worse than it is already is under Putin we did not see anything enlightening from Russia for centuries, so the fall of the Russian Federation can only be good for our sake.

[Reece]

Your statement gives me new hope Dargo!

[Skybird]

Wishful thinking. After Putin, another Putinator will win the crown. Economics will suffer, and thus the outbound aggression will be pushed further. Russians are used since centuries to live under the whip. They do not know it differently. With friendly help by the orthodox church keeping them obedient and servile.

[Reece]

Thanks Marc, I needed that!!

[Skybird]

Always steady, always grounded.

[mapuc]

If I get this correct-The Russian is loosing their elites a lot faster than they can replace them



Markus