GER politics thread

Skybird · 04-28-22, 08:12 PM

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung puts the finger into the wound:

There is a dispute in Germany over the centerpiece of the security policy "turnaround" proclaimed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz: the 100 billion euro modernization of the Bundeswehr. The CDU and CSU are signaling that they do not want to approve the government factions' draft bill as it stands. They doubt that the money will really only be used for the Bundeswehr. They also say it is unclear how the new debt - which is what the "special assets" are all about - is to be repaid. Party tactical games, as the government claims? No, the criticism is justified.

It is the duty of the opposition to ensure that such huge sums are used appropriately. Especially since it would not be possible without the votes of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group. For the so-called debt brake to be circumvented and the credit-financed special fund to be anchored in the Basic Law, a two-thirds majority is needed in parliament - and thus the approval of the CDU and CSU.

But even with the approval of the opposition, there is a real danger that 100 billion euros will only be a flash in the pan, which will blaze impressively but not heat up the Bundeswehr to the necessary operating temperature in the long term.

The German government is currently planning to use the additional debt, known as special assets, to close the gap between the regular defense budget and the fulfillment of NATO's two-percent target, which the chancellor has also promised. This states that all member states of the alliance must spend at least two percent of their respective gross domestic product on defense. Germany has been falling well short of this target for years.

The German defense budget is threatened with a coverage gap

Expenditure in billions of euros

At the same time, the regular defense budget is to be frozen at just over 50 billion euros until 2026. However, this would mean that the money in the special fund would already be used up by 2025. Once regardless of the question of whether the Bundeswehr's notorious procurement bureaucracy can even properly spend so much money in such a short time: What comes after that?

Certainly, there will probably be annual increases in the defense budget in the future, as there have been recently. The galloping inflation trend alone will make this necessary. However, by their very nature, long-term defense projects can hardly be planned if the regular defense budget is not increased in a predictable manner for years to come. Only in this way would the German military also have planning security for the rising operating costs that inevitably arise with more material to be maintained.

It would make sense to finance the particularly costly armaments projects through a special fund spread over several years, such as the planned development of the Future Combat Air System. Other expenditures, however, would be better covered by a growing regular defense budget. These include protective equipment for soldiers and the 20 billion euros in ammunition stocks that Germany has committed to NATO to procure - enough for 30 days of combat. Only in this way will Germany succeed in achieving the goal set by Finance Minister Christian Lindner of making the Bundeswehr the most effective army in Europe.

If, on the other hand, the special fund is spent within a few years without increasing the defense budget, the next federal government will face a huge challenge: How will Germany then meet the NATO quota? It is questionable whether the country will have the political strength after the next election to close what would then be a much larger funding gap. If it fails to do so, the grandly announced turnaround will have turned out to be a flash in the pan by then at the latest.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

More and more the turnaround" in German defence policy is getting demasked as just another Scholzian smoke screen - as I feared and said it would. In its current format its just a very very little bit more than cosmetics only. Cosmetics that will wash off the face again in 3-4 years.

However, the question must be asked if such defence budgets as needed even are seriously affordable anymore? But that is a question I would ask on many political projects and state administrating areas, not a few of them I would describe as mad and insane. Climate policy hybris, inflation, unfolding recession and stagflation, extremely high debt standings while the currency still gets inflated, and ever more greed and need and political profiling with the money of other people - and the next generation.

It's all over our heads already, but no one wants to admit it - or stop packing even more and more on top. All high flying plans. No sense of realism - or competence to show it. Best example for the latter: the German energy "turnaround". A stupid drama since 12 years, still accelerating make sure one hits the wall at the end at top speed. Say, how do you stop a loooooong train in almost no time that has been accelerated for 12 years and that lifts the wheels on one side higher and higher in every turn it races through...?

04-28-22, 08:12 PM	#11
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,672 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	The Neue Zürcher Zeitung puts the finger into the wound: There is a dispute in Germany over the centerpiece of the security policy "turnaround" proclaimed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz: the 100 billion euro modernization of the Bundeswehr. The CDU and CSU are signaling that they do not want to approve the government factions' draft bill as it stands. They doubt that the money will really only be used for the Bundeswehr. They also say it is unclear how the new debt - which is what the "special assets" are all about - is to be repaid. Party tactical games, as the government claims? No, the criticism is justified. It is the duty of the opposition to ensure that such huge sums are used appropriately. Especially since it would not be possible without the votes of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group. For the so-called debt brake to be circumvented and the credit-financed special fund to be anchored in the Basic Law, a two-thirds majority is needed in parliament - and thus the approval of the CDU and CSU. But even with the approval of the opposition, there is a real danger that 100 billion euros will only be a flash in the pan, which will blaze impressively but not heat up the Bundeswehr to the necessary operating temperature in the long term. The German government is currently planning to use the additional debt, known as special assets, to close the gap between the regular defense budget and the fulfillment of NATO's two-percent target, which the chancellor has also promised. This states that all member states of the alliance must spend at least two percent of their respective gross domestic product on defense. Germany has been falling well short of this target for years. The German defense budget is threatened with a coverage gap Expenditure in billions of euros At the same time, the regular defense budget is to be frozen at just over 50 billion euros until 2026. However, this would mean that the money in the special fund would already be used up by 2025. Once regardless of the question of whether the Bundeswehr's notorious procurement bureaucracy can even properly spend so much money in such a short time: What comes after that? Certainly, there will probably be annual increases in the defense budget in the future, as there have been recently. The galloping inflation trend alone will make this necessary. However, by their very nature, long-term defense projects can hardly be planned if the regular defense budget is not increased in a predictable manner for years to come. Only in this way would the German military also have planning security for the rising operating costs that inevitably arise with more material to be maintained. It would make sense to finance the particularly costly armaments projects through a special fund spread over several years, such as the planned development of the Future Combat Air System. Other expenditures, however, would be better covered by a growing regular defense budget. These include protective equipment for soldiers and the 20 billion euros in ammunition stocks that Germany has committed to NATO to procure - enough for 30 days of combat. Only in this way will Germany succeed in achieving the goal set by Finance Minister Christian Lindner of making the Bundeswehr the most effective army in Europe. If, on the other hand, the special fund is spent within a few years without increasing the defense budget, the next federal government will face a huge challenge: How will Germany then meet the NATO quota? It is questionable whether the country will have the political strength after the next election to close what would then be a much larger funding gap. If it fails to do so, the grandly announced turnaround will have turned out to be a flash in the pan by then at the latest. Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) More and more the turnaround" in German defence policy is getting demasked as just another Scholzian smoke screen - as I feared and said it would. In its current format its just a very very little bit more than cosmetics only. Cosmetics that will wash off the face again in 3-4 years. However, the question must be asked if such defence budgets as needed even are seriously affordable anymore? But that is a question I would ask on many political projects and state administrating areas, not a few of them I would describe as mad and insane. Climate policy hybris, inflation, unfolding recession and stagflation, extremely high debt standings while the currency still gets inflated, and ever more greed and need and political profiling with the money of other people - and the next generation. It's all over our heads already, but no one wants to admit it - or stop packing even more and more on top. All high flying plans. No sense of realism - or competence to show it. Best example for the latter: the German energy "turnaround". A stupid drama since 12 years, still accelerating make sure one hits the wall at the end at top speed. Say, how do you stop a loooooong train in almost no time that has been accelerated for 12 years and that lifts the wheels on one side higher and higher in every turn it races through...? __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.