The energy thread

[Skybird]

High time for one, I would say. We have marathon threads for Russia, Ukraine, China, Germany, the UK, the US, economy, and always energy shows up in any of these.

Before in Germany we will see the materialization of a gas problem, we will already see the materialisation of an electricity crisis, and many other countries have their own problems with energy shortages, too.

[Skybird]

On the Candian-German H2-"deal", Hans Hofmann-Reinicke writes in his Blog "Think Again":



Hydrogen from Canada the salvation?

The German chancellor recently visited the president of Canada to reach initial agreements with him on the supply of green hydrogen. In the short term - for this winter or next - this will certainly not yet take hold. But in the medium or long term, is it the solution to our energy problems?

Green projects are characterized by dispensing with studies of technical and economic feasibility and starting right away with implementation. That way, it sometimes becomes quite expensive, but the benefits are all the smaller. The energy turnaround costs more than a scoop of ice cream, and instead of electricity from coal and nuclear power, there's freezing for peace. So there is plenty of reason to take a closer look at the Canadian hydrogen issue.

Off the Canadian mainland lies the island of Newfoundland, three times the size of NRW but with fewer inhabitants than Düsseldorf. This sparsely populated region is said to have steady and strong winds, making it an ideal location for turbines to generate electricity. But who is going to buy the electricity? The nearest towns worth mentioning are too far away to lay transmission lines there. So you package the power in a way that makes it easier to export.

The electricity is run through water to produce hydrogen, which is called "green hydrogen" because it comes from clean wind energy. One kilogram of it contains the energy of 33 kWh, or about five times what's in a kilogram of coal. That's the good news. The bad news is that one kilogram of hydrogen takes up a volume of 11 cubic meters, it would just fit in a very large closet.

Thanks to this low density, people used to fill airships with hydrogen; it made them lighter than air. Now, however, we don't want to transport passengers, but hydrogen itself. To do this, we use the effect that gases become liquid at low temperatures. The smaller the molecules, the colder it has to be. Methane, for example, CH4, becomes liquid at -164°C, and hydrogen H2 at -253°C. That's pretty darn cold, only 20°C above absolute zero. The machinery for this liquefaction consumes 12 kWh per kg of H2, which is more than a third of its energy content. And another bad news: even one kilogram of liquid hydrogen (LH2) still has a volume of 14 liters! That makes it very unwieldy to transport, not to mention that it must always be kept at 20°C above absolute zero while traveling. So is it not even possible to ship the hydrogen from Canada to Germany as planned?

For half a century, LNG ships loaded with liquid natural gas, i.e. liquefied methane, have been plowing through the world's oceans; they are these huge barges with half a dozen domes on deck. Couldn't they also be used for green hydrogen?

No - not for two reasons. The difference between -164°C and -253°C is not significant in our minds - both are cold as hell. Physically, the difference between 20 Kelvin for LH2 and 109 Kelvin for LNG is huge. So the insulation systems must be different, as well as the refrigeration units that provide the low temperatures.

But there is a second aspect, the economic aspect. In each cubic meter of tank, such a ship carries 440 kg of LNG, but would only carry 71 kg of LH2, i.e. only one sixth. The economic calculation naturally takes into account the ratio of transport costs to the value of the cargo, and this is very unfavorable in the case of LH2.

Is there no feasible way to transport LH2 from Canada to Germany? That would be a prerequisite for the Canadian deal!

The world's first such trip, including loading and unloading of LH2, was made by the Suiso Frontier from Victoria, Australia, to Kobe, Japan, arriving in May 2022. It was a highly subsidized project to demonstrate technical feasibility.

So does this prove the feasibility of importing LH2 from Canada? The technical feasibility may be there. But the economic viability is more than questionable. If you look at the whole supply chain: Wind energy - electricity - electrolysis - liquefaction - ship transport - distribution - storage - conversion to electricity in fuel cells - feed into the grid - then one has to be very skeptical. It would be murderously expensive. Maybe then the LH2 levy will be introduced in Germany and the kilowatt hour will ultimately cost one euro.


Let us hope that one day the realization will prevail that it is not the citizens who are there to finance the absurd energy plans of the Greens, but that energy policy is there to secure for the citizens the quality of life they have earned and to provide the economy with an infrastructure in which it can operate competitively.
--------------------------


Not to mention that this project, if it ever becomes real, will not see the fruits of its efforts before 7-12 years from now on. That allows the question - what to do until then, Germany?

Law of physics: when you transport electricty, you allways have losses due to the inner resistence of the wire (measured in Ohm). Regarding overland wires from powerplants to industrial plants some 100s of kilometers away, these can be immense, up to one quarter, even one third. Now we want transport energy storage agents like H2 via ships, these hydrogen tankers, and it seems we again suffer immense losses.

Logic offers a splendid solution: producing the power right where it is needed, on location, and without taking in-between-steps like making H2 first! And you are done. Sun independent. Wind-independent. Season- independent. But before German green minds understand this its more likely that you can make a cactus talking.

[Skybird]

This website offers analysis data and -tools regarding everything electrical power in Germany: grid status, daily sit rep, energy mix etc etc.


https://www.stromdaten.info/

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

This website offers analysis data and -tools regarding everything electrical power in Germany: grid status, daily sit rep, energy mix etc etc.


https://www.stromdaten.info/

We have similar page here in Denmark. I toke a look at energinet.dk to see our
We are importing electricity from Norway, Sweden, Germany and Holland. We are also exporting electricity to Germany.

In all Denmark is importing 2087 MW.

Gas.
Denmark is importing from Germany 1.300.899 kWh/h of gas(Don't know who much this is in cubic meter)Something with 11,586 kWh/m3 in burning value.

If Russia decide to shut down their gas supply to Europe-Denmark has enough for four month. The winter will be harsh if it happens.

Markus

[MaDef]

If Russia decide to shut down their gas supply to Europe-Denmark has enough for four month. The winter will be harsh if it happens.

I would suggest you invest in thermal underwear in case that happens.

[August]

My German grandparents would sleep with the windows open in the winter. The only heat in the house was from the kitchen wood stove.

They still (or perhaps because) managed to successfully raise 11 children, and that's in spite of my grandfather being gone off to the war for seven years.

I think they made tougher Volk back in those days.

[em2nought]

Drill, baby, drill!

Mine, baby, mine!

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by em2nought

Drill, baby, drill!

Mine, baby, mine!

No, baby, no! (Green mantra).

Blow, wind, blow!

Shine, sun, shine!


And now everybody:
Ichfühlmichgutichfühlmichtollichfühlmicheinfachwun dervoll!

[Jimbuna]

Reminds me of the Elton John song 'Candle in the Wind'

[Jimbuna]

Middle earners, as well as low earners, are likely to need government help to pay their energy bills this winter, Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi has warned.

The energy regulator hiked the price cap on household bills by 80% on Friday, meaning the average bill will rise to £3,549 a year from October.

Speaking to the Daily Telegraph, Mr Zahawi said even those earning £45,000 a year may need support.

He said the Treasury was exploring "all the options" to help households.

He added that the country was in a "national economic emergency [that] could go on for 18 months, two years".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62695778

[Skybird]

The crisis burns itself deep into the German middle class. It is expected that next year energy costs will equal if not surpass cold flat rents for many ordinary households. Millions will not be able to cope with the financial burdens.

The Greens' recipe: print more money and drop it from helicopters. They even say the troubles will worsten nd will stay for many years to come, but adaptation of their policies and giving up stupid ideology-hardened mind-fortresses? Nononononono. No, never. Noooo. No. No-no-no. NO. In a few weeks or months maybe they will agree to let those three powerpploants run - and then find that they have wasted 8 months and so will not get nuclear fuel in time. If they would have agreed in april, in Oc tober nuclear fuelp could have been dleivered, says the industry. Of course, they will say that companies are evil, fate was against them, they could not have known, it is democratic debate, it is so hard for them, and that they are not guilty for this part of the mess.

Well, I said since many years that it is the Green agenda to deindustrialise Germany and to destroy everything heavy industry in this country, and better evertyhing science and market as well, since one is at it. Ideology yes, science no. And I never meant my rants as an exaggeration, but as a fact. Many Green followers welcome the crisis today for it does what they always wanted to acchieve: it brings down the industry they hate so much. "Und nach uns die Sintflut..."

But this is only because they have never imagined the consequences for themsleves once the crisis has corroded so deep into society that they themsleves are affected, too.

I hope that this winter it really crunches and cracks in the woodwork and that half the roof comes down and falls on more than just a few heads. The more violent, the better, because that might finally teach people some sense. Gender star? Gender quotas? With it still so many waste their time and energy...? Dear friends, it's high time that fate kicks you in the ass so firmly and with a running start.

What has begun these days, this year, that will not be over in only three, four years. I expect at least a decade of severe crisis. At least. In Germany in particular, because here the ideological meanness comes to bear three times as hard as elsewhere.

Burn, crisis, burn. The less people can escape it, the better. Misery teaches the best lessons.

[Jimbuna]

The next prime minister will tackle "eye-watering" energy bills, Boris Johnson has said, amid criticism that he has failed to respond to the crisis.

Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Mr Johnson said his successor would deliver a "huge package" of support.

Charities and experts have called on the government to announce more support as a matter of urgency.

Conservative Party leadership candidate Liz Truss is reported to be considering a 5% cut to VAT.

A report in the Sunday Telegraph suggests she is looking at the move as a "nuclear" option and says it could save the average household £1,300 a year. But a spokesperson for her campaign said it would not be right for her to announce any plans at this stage.

Rishi Sunak's team has dismissed a cut to all VAT as "incredibly regressive", saying it would cost more than £30bn.

Mr Sunak, who is vying with Ms Truss to become the next prime minister, has said he would cut VAT on energy bills and has promised targeted support for the most vulnerable.

On Friday, the energy regulator hiked the price cap on household bills by 80%, meaning the typical household gas and electricity bill will rise to £3,549 a year from October.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62703858

[Kapitan]

If I recall the UK used to get about 3% of its gas from Russia and with the rest of the EU now scratching around for alternative suppliers plus the inability of other suppliers to increase production it has left an entire gap in the market.

Energy bills have gone up around the world, and in Europe specifically Germany they have turned their back on one of the greenest energy sources.
While I get there is issues regarding nuclear waste on the whole the nuclear power generation gives off 0 carbon emissions plus gives you a secure domestic supply.

Therefore if Germany had kept the reactors on and built more their reliance on Russian Gas and Oil wouldn't have been such a big issue.
I guess that's why the EU is stalling in the implementations of sanctions against Russia.

The UK on the other hand has to import oil and gas from overseas like the EU, and right now its mainly coming from the USA and Norway.
But other EU countries have also been drawing on these two countries creating a higher than usual demand.

Both Oil and Gas are polluters it seems that Germanys vision and the EU climate change goals are all but gone, you simply cannot achieve 0 carbon emissions from gas.
You also cant sustain your energy needs with solar, tidal and wind you have to have a base load to work from and the only way I can see that can be achieved is to have nuclear as your base provider.

Here in Manitoba its not so bad nearly all our electricity comes from Hydro Electric which is the base load, then we have peak demand plants run by coal and gas.

So someone will now say I have contradicted myself because I have just said you cannot achieve 0 carbon emissions from renewable sources.

Well Manitoba is twice the size of Germany by land mass yet has a population of 1.4 million with around 800,000 of that population living in Winnipeg and another 200,000+ living in major towns in the south and only a few major high energy using industries.

Now Germany has a population of 83.2 million to give you an idea that is 2.25 times the population of Canada (37.2 million) and has a lot of high energy using industries.

So why is this relevant? simply because each country has differing needs depending on Industry and population, Germany is a high energy user as is the UK and all of Europe.

Therefore with the move away from Russian supplied oil and gas this has put the demand for product elsewhere and as it was a fairly sudden change.
The producer doesn't have the ability to push a button and more comes out of the ground like many think it does in reality production has to be eased up gently.

Then you also have to think of the transportation network, while Europe is largely supplied by pipeline its not the case if that oil and gas is coming from
the USA for example.

The sudden demand for oil and gas will have had a major effect on the markets, with Russian product now not supplying the market there's a big hole and this is why we saw demand out weight supply.

That balance is now being readdressed as other countries now take up the slack to produce more.

The futures market quotes in light sweet crude for example look reasonable but only time will tell.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/ene...de.quotes.html

The UK and Europe are not the only ones this is affecting, the UK news would have you believe this is all due to Brexit and only affecting the UK, well that's not the case.

I spend a lot of time in the USA I have seen fuel prices triple in the last 6-9 months the highest I have seen for Gas / Petrol is $7.29 a US Gallon (3.79 Liters) even Texas had fuel prices in excess of $5 a Gallon !

So this is nothing to do with brexit or covid it is simply supply and demand, the demand is there but the supply is not and Europe is not alone either.

My bill this month was $348CAD last month it was $244CAD and a year ago it was sitting around $150CAD

[Catfish]

^ Additionally almost all companies ride the wave of raising their prices, even if not affected at all. "Reasons" range from corona, market changes, delivery chains, China, Russia, Taiwan, Russia, war to "others do it too".

[sarcasm]
We can be sure that prices will go down again when the crises are over.
[/sarcasm]

edit brexit has indeed some consequnces. Buying spare parts or even cars in England has become too expensive, apart from english companies raising prices "just so" you now have to pay value added tax (double), additional export and import taxes, and fight all kinds of new barriers, that really are old ones from the times England was not in the EU. A spare part recently bought that used to cost around 17 pounds, is now at 80. Not again, guess will sell all the stuff.
A lot of automotive Companies (including vintage cars and parts dealers) want to stop trade or have already given up.

[Skybird]

The aftermaths and consequencds from Corona, China draughts, war, debts, euro desintegration, demography, water, will either stay for years to come, or will never reverse at all. Add those artificially boosted crisis like the German energy transformation policies that are needless to boost, but ideologically wanted.



Forget Germany, its done and over.