View Single Post
Old 09-27-22, 01:15 PM   #6745
Skybird
Soaring
 
Skybird's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: the mental asylum named Germany
Posts: 40,340
Downloads: 9
Uploads: 0


Default

Der Spiegel reports that the CIA had information on a planned attack on the pipelines and that Berlin was informed on this intel data.

As I said earlier, I think theoretically several suspects must be looked at. Though the propabailty for each of them is dratsically varying.

The most likely attacker of course is Russia. It has thew reigonalö access, the militry means, and it would be a continuation of an old pattern: to artificlaly create fabricate soutations in the world to which iknnocent Russia thna just happens needing to react to. in this case Russia will claim that it cannot deliver any gas because of the broken pipelines. It has cheated like this before, when claiming the Siemens turbines where not ready, had no valid papers, could not be accepted back, and so forth. I have no ideya why these world famous lioars are to obsessed by constructing such chetaign stories as alib is for their misddeds (like now the referendums as well). But I must realise that this is what they are always doing, and that this pattern is well-established. - The likelihood for Russia being behind this, is very high, and most likely they are behind the attacks indeed.

The Ukraine obviously also has an interest in preventing once and for all time to come that gas will flow through this pipeline, and it wants no money flowing from Germany to Russia. They probably have the means - I imagine military combat divers: the Ukrainian equivalent to American SEALs - , but no easy access to the Baltic, would have needed to run a deep and extensive secret operation. There are reasons speaking against it, however: they risk to seriously alienate their Western partners over their stunt if it gets unmasked. - I see the propbability for the ukriane being behind the attack as possible, but very low.

Poland was always against the pipeline, and not only due to not making deals with Russia, but due to their interest to booster their own ambition to become a supply centre for LNG gas that they planned to land in Denmark and then deliver to Poland from there it would be distributed into the Europan pipeline grid. Would have given them a controling seat to blackmail the EU, if need be, and would have given them transit fees. They also obviously have the geographical access, and certainly they have combat divers. But I think all this is no longer valid, and I also assume they would not have gone this far to realise their - outdated - plan. So: theoretically it could be Poland behind this, but the probability is very low.

Germany: it has precise knoweldge on the pipeline locations, it has capable combat divers, submarines, and saccess to the Baltic. Doe sGermany have a motive? Well, indirectly, yes. The calculation could be to solve inherent problems inj the colatiin which is/was locked down over diefrences on nulcear power, energy policies, and how to support Ukraine, and how to dela wioth Russia after the war, and this while some maybe always were eyind to just return to gas dleoiveries via the pipelines after the war. Theoretically it is possible to imagine that some power actors in this complex innerpolitical mess wanted to create a clear situation that leaves some more room for any uncertainties regarding futrure options. However, it is unlikely that an internal plot bypassed Bubble Olaf, and Bubble Olaf himself is too indifferent and cowardly to to decide a coup like this for which he could be called out if it gets revealed, also he would have preferred to, as he calls it, keep his options open instead of killing them. It is theoretically possible that Germany is behind the attack, but I see it as extremely unlikely.

The United States. Obviously, Washington is very unsatisfied with Bubble Olaf's policy, and his hesitation to deliver tanks, also, the gas dependency the Germans have enforced against all warnings had Washington in arms beyond party lines, and finally America since years tried to sell its expensive LNG gas to Europe in bigger quantities. Russia obviously as unwelcfomed comeptition and beat the US by price dumping. These days Wahsington must be worrie dbaotu what the crazy Germans will do in tue future regardign Russia, and one obviopusly does not trust Berlin blindly, and already not since many years, I think (Berlin's request to become member of the five eys club was put down, especially by Washington). Wahsington has any itnerets tere is to make sure the Germans will never consider to buy Russian gas anymore after any "deal" Putin made, and what is more ensuring to secure this potlical objecitve by simpyl making it impossible - by destrpoying the pipeline? But here again, what speaks agaisnbt it is that if this stunt becomes known, gets revealked, thsi would leasd to very serous egostratgeic irritations between Europoe and America, and I think Biden, who is more aware of Europe than Obama or Trump were, would not take such a gamble. The US has the motives (plural!), it certainly has the means, but I nevertheless think the probability of Washignton havign attackedthe pipeline is less than moderate: its low.

I point my finger at Russia, with 90+ pc confidence. It just meets their typical behavioral pattern, and all inhibitions that speak against the others suspects in case of Russia obviously do not apply.
__________________
If you feel nuts, consult an expert.
Skybird is offline