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Skybird · 02-17-24, 05:27 PM

In Germany, the nation-wide CDU and the Bavaria-only CSU form a party union.

[Tichys Einblicke] According to the new electoral law of the left-wing coalition government, every party taking part in the Bundestag elections must achieve at least 5% of the votes nationwide in order to enter the Bundestag. Regardless of the number of direct mandates won.
Above all, this can be seen as a law against the CSU. It only runs in Bavaria and wins almost all direct mandates there. The problem: in the last four federal elections, the CSU achieved results that were only a few percentage points above the five percent threshold.

2009: 42.5 percent of the vote in Bavaria, which corresponds to 6.5 percent at national level
2013: 49.3 percent, which corresponds to 7.4 percent
2017: 38.8 percent, which corresponds to 6.2 percent
2021: 31.7 percent, which corresponds to 5.2 percent

If this trend continues, the CSU's chances of winning seats in the Bundestag will also decrease under the new legal situation created by the traffic light system.

If the new values union only loses a few percentage points to the CSU as a result and the CSU does not achieve such a good result, the CSU could fail to meet the five-percent clause - in the new electoral law of the traffic light system, direct mandates are counted less than before. This would mean a significant loss of seats in the Bundestag for the CSU. A large proportion of Bavarian voters would be left without representation in the Bundestag. Bavaria would only be allowed to pay within the framework of the financial equalization of the federal states, but would hardly have any say.

There would then also be no CDU/CSU parliamentary group and the result for the CDU would be correspondingly smaller: instead of around 30% as currently predicted, only around 24%. However, the CDU, probably to an even greater extent than the CSU, will also cede votes to the Werteunion. A result of 20% or less would then be quite conceivable.

The CDU has a potential of around 50 percentage points. In the 2013 election, the CDU/CSU almost exhausted this potential with 41.5 percentage points. In the last election in 2021, however, at 24.2 percentage points, only just under half. The transformation into another, more left-wing party and the courting of voters to the left of its spectrum had not expanded the voter potential as hoped, but significantly reduced it.

If the not unrealistic scenario described above were to occur, the CSU would no longer exist in the federal government and the CDU would be left with a maximum of 2/5 of its potential. As the CDU rejects coalitions with the AfD, the position of the conservative camp would be considerably weakened, whereas it could still have a majority today - a threat to democracy?

https://www.tichyseinblick.de/daili-...l-von-cdu-csu/

And consider this: the CDU, once a party of conservative values, under Merkel became a party replacing conservative values with pure opportunism, overtaking the SPD on the left lane, and becoming as green as the Greens, for pure opportunism: Merkel wanted to fetch voters of the other two parties by posing as their usually preferred party. Today, the CDU might be the strongest party, but not strong enough to form any government all alone. It needs coalitions, and for that they have only the choice between SPD and Greens, since the FDP shot itself off the charts, and the AfD is not wanted. Which means any way if you vote CDU and hope for a CDU government, you nevertheless get a coalition government with green or red or green-red participation and influence. and if you do not vote CDU, but any of the other, you also get a red-green-x coalition government. No matter what, the left always participates in government. You cannot vote them out.

Now, the - still - boss of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, recently mentioned he is willing to form a coalition with the Greens after the next national elections. And the Greens behave already now as if their dramatic loss in approval ratings were not real, and already indicate they are readying themselves for government again after the next elections, with the CDU. This means that the one party that before any other is responsible for the economic destruction in Germany of the past two years, will get punished in elecitosn, will loose dramatically according to current polls - and nevertheless will get rewarded with being brought back into government again where they can dictate the terms to a CDU that will do just evertyhing just to get to power. And the Greens will demand a price for allowing that.

The left has won, and wins again, and will always win in this doomed country. Socialism has not been defeated after 1989. It blossoms and is more powerful than ever before in the past 150 years. Without it beign enforced from outside, but because the Germans are like they are.

And I dont mean that as a compliment for sure.

I hoped in the past that the consequences from this madness would materialise not before my life "term" is over. But the realist in me meanwhile learned it better. The handwarm brown stuff will fly right into my face like in everybody else's as well - during my remaining lifetime.

Thank you for that, you stupid ####### Germans. If stupidity would be a currency, you would be rich beyond belief. But as things stand, we are just seen as the jesters of the world. Which is just fair - because it is true.

02-17-24, 05:27 PM	#2101
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,554 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	In Germany, the nation-wide CDU and the Bavaria-only CSU form a party union. [Tichys Einblicke] According to the new electoral law of the left-wing coalition government, every party taking part in the Bundestag elections must achieve at least 5% of the votes nationwide in order to enter the Bundestag. Regardless of the number of direct mandates won. Above all, this can be seen as a law against the CSU. It only runs in Bavaria and wins almost all direct mandates there. The problem: in the last four federal elections, the CSU achieved results that were only a few percentage points above the five percent threshold. 2009: 42.5 percent of the vote in Bavaria, which corresponds to 6.5 percent at national level 2013: 49.3 percent, which corresponds to 7.4 percent 2017: 38.8 percent, which corresponds to 6.2 percent 2021: 31.7 percent, which corresponds to 5.2 percent If this trend continues, the CSU's chances of winning seats in the Bundestag will also decrease under the new legal situation created by the traffic light system. If the new values union only loses a few percentage points to the CSU as a result and the CSU does not achieve such a good result, the CSU could fail to meet the five-percent clause - in the new electoral law of the traffic light system, direct mandates are counted less than before. This would mean a significant loss of seats in the Bundestag for the CSU. A large proportion of Bavarian voters would be left without representation in the Bundestag. Bavaria would only be allowed to pay within the framework of the financial equalization of the federal states, but would hardly have any say. There would then also be no CDU/CSU parliamentary group and the result for the CDU would be correspondingly smaller: instead of around 30% as currently predicted, only around 24%. However, the CDU, probably to an even greater extent than the CSU, will also cede votes to the Werteunion. A result of 20% or less would then be quite conceivable. The CDU has a potential of around 50 percentage points. In the 2013 election, the CDU/CSU almost exhausted this potential with 41.5 percentage points. In the last election in 2021, however, at 24.2 percentage points, only just under half. The transformation into another, more left-wing party and the courting of voters to the left of its spectrum had not expanded the voter potential as hoped, but significantly reduced it. If the not unrealistic scenario described above were to occur, the CSU would no longer exist in the federal government and the CDU would be left with a maximum of 2/5 of its potential. As the CDU rejects coalitions with the AfD, the position of the conservative camp would be considerably weakened, whereas it could still have a majority today - a threat to democracy? https://www.tichyseinblick.de/daili-...l-von-cdu-csu/ And consider this: the CDU, once a party of conservative values, under Merkel became a party replacing conservative values with pure opportunism, overtaking the SPD on the left lane, and becoming as green as the Greens, for pure opportunism: Merkel wanted to fetch voters of the other two parties by posing as their usually preferred party. Today, the CDU might be the strongest party, but not strong enough to form any government all alone. It needs coalitions, and for that they have only the choice between SPD and Greens, since the FDP shot itself off the charts, and the AfD is not wanted. Which means any way if you vote CDU and hope for a CDU government, you nevertheless get a coalition government with green or red or green-red participation and influence. and if you do not vote CDU, but any of the other, you also get a red-green-x coalition government. No matter what, the left always participates in government. You cannot vote them out. Now, the - still - boss of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, recently mentioned he is willing to form a coalition with the Greens after the next national elections. And the Greens behave already now as if their dramatic loss in approval ratings were not real, and already indicate they are readying themselves for government again after the next elections, with the CDU. This means that the one party that before any other is responsible for the economic destruction in Germany of the past two years, will get punished in elecitosn, will loose dramatically according to current polls - and nevertheless will get rewarded with being brought back into government again where they can dictate the terms to a CDU that will do just evertyhing just to get to power. And the Greens will demand a price for allowing that. The left has won, and wins again, and will always win in this doomed country. Socialism has not been defeated after 1989. It blossoms and is more powerful than ever before in the past 150 years. Without it beign enforced from outside, but because the Germans are like they are. And I dont mean that as a compliment for sure. I hoped in the past that the consequences from this madness would materialise not before my life "term" is over. But the realist in me meanwhile learned it better. The handwarm brown stuff will fly right into my face like in everybody else's as well - during my remaining lifetime. Thank you for that, you stupid ####### Germans. If stupidity would be a currency, you would be rich beyond belief. But as things stand, we are just seen as the jesters of the world. Which is just fair - because it is true. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 02-17-24 at 05:51 PM.