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Skybird · 03-02-23, 05:58 AM

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:
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Has the West already lost the big technology race against China?

China beats the U.S. in 37 of 44 key technologies, according to an Australian think tank. The strength of democratic countries lies in cooperation.

In a world that increasingly seems to be splitting into two camps economically, it is becoming more and more important who dominates which key technologies. After all, computer chips and artificial intelligence are the basis for countless applications, from the energy transition to the military. The U.S. and China are fighting particularly fiercely for dominance - it is difficult to say exactly who is leading where.

The think tank Australian Strategic Policy Institute (Aspi), which is close to the Australian defense establishment, is now trying to determine this more precisely. Its conclusion sounds alarming: "Western democracies are losing the global technological race, the race for breakthroughs in science and research, and the ability to retain the world's best minds." These, he said, are critical prerequisites for developing and controlling the world's most important technologies, including those that do not yet exist.

The Aspi examined 44 technologies, from high-tech materials and radio communications to electric batteries and quantum computing to advanced aircraft engines and drones. China leads in 37 of these areas - the U.S. in the rest.

But how do you measure technology leadership? Aspi counts scientific publications in the various fields and gives greater weight to those that are cited particularly often. There is a clear correlation between registered patents and the most frequently cited research results, the study authors write. Therefore, they say, it is possible to measure the scientific performance of a country or institution.

The example of hypersonic weapons shows that it is worth taking a look at published research results. These are guided missiles that fly faster than five times the speed of sound. They are considered to be almost impossible or difficult to intercept. In 2021, American military officials were surprised when it became known that China had tested a hypersonic weapon that could be armed with a nuclear warhead.

Yet there were clear signs that China was a leader in this area, the Aspi authors write: Nearly half of all high-quality research reports on modern aircraft engines - which include hypersonic propulsion systems - came from China, and seven of the world's top ten research institutes in the field were Chinese, they said.

The recent affair about the Chinese spy balloon over the USA was a similar case: Chinese universities, which are known for defense research, have for years been researching balloons and similar flying objects more intensively than probably anyone else, including for military missions. Aspi now wants to use its new index called Critical Technology Tracker to lay the groundwork for preventing further such surprises.

When it comes to quantum technologies, for example, China is well ahead of the U.S. in three out of four categories, in some cases. Quantum technologies take advantage of the fact that, unlike conventional particles, a quantum particle can assume multiple states simultaneously. This allows certain calculations to be performed much faster. For example, it may one day be possible to easily crack RSA, the encryption technique commonly used today.

In the field of post-quantum cryptography - i.e., encryption technology that will one day be able to withstand quantum computers - China leads with 31 percent of the studies and patents, ahead of the U.S. with just over 13 percent. The situation is similar for quantum communications, which are secured via such encryption. In the development of quantum computers, on the other hand, the Aspi somewhat surprisingly sees the U.S. clearly ahead of China.

Probably the most publicly discussed technology at present is artificial intelligence (AI); after all, the human-like chat software ChatGPT, released in November, has already been downloaded more than 100 million times worldwide. The Aspi also sees China ahead or nearly on par with the U.S. in several categories, such as AI algorithm development and the design of powerful computer chips.

However, the focus on research studies and patents in this area in particular reveals a weakness of the study: the best research is of no use if you cannot manufacture the corresponding products yourself. In China's case, for example, this is evident in chips with AI capabilities. That's because the U.S. imposed comprehensive export bans and other restrictions on China's chip industry in October.

In 8 of the 44 areas, the Aspi authors see a risk that Beijing could achieve a monopoly. This is the case when the output of Chinese research exceeds that of the next country by more than three times and 8 of the top 10 research institutes in the field are in China. This is worrisome because in the longer term it could give the authoritarian regime in Beijing the ability to blackmail other countries.

It has already shown on several occasions that it is not afraid to do so. In 2010, for example, China blocked the export of rare earths to the Japanese electronics industry after Japan arrested a Chinese captain who had rammed a Japanese coast guard ship. Beijing also banned imports of many Australian products after Canberra called for an investigation into the coronavirus pandemic outbreak.

The Chinese position on science cannot come as a surprise in that the communist government had long made such leadership a goal. The authors of the study also recommend that Western countries develop strategies to promote research and provide appropriate funding.

The danger that global key technologies could be dominated by an authoritarian state is put into perspective by the fact that behind China and the USA, the democracies India, Great Britain, Germany, South Korea, Italy, Australia and Japan share the top 5 positions in almost all areas. Of the authoritarian countries, only Iran makes it into this league several times. Research cooperation between democratic nations thus has security policy relevance.
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Also:
https://techtracker.aspi.org.au/

03-02-23, 05:58 AM	#416
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,496 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	Neue Zürcher Zeitung: ------------------------------ Has the West already lost the big technology race against China? China beats the U.S. in 37 of 44 key technologies, according to an Australian think tank. The strength of democratic countries lies in cooperation. In a world that increasingly seems to be splitting into two camps economically, it is becoming more and more important who dominates which key technologies. After all, computer chips and artificial intelligence are the basis for countless applications, from the energy transition to the military. The U.S. and China are fighting particularly fiercely for dominance - it is difficult to say exactly who is leading where. The think tank Australian Strategic Policy Institute (Aspi), which is close to the Australian defense establishment, is now trying to determine this more precisely. Its conclusion sounds alarming: "Western democracies are losing the global technological race, the race for breakthroughs in science and research, and the ability to retain the world's best minds." These, he said, are critical prerequisites for developing and controlling the world's most important technologies, including those that do not yet exist. The Aspi examined 44 technologies, from high-tech materials and radio communications to electric batteries and quantum computing to advanced aircraft engines and drones. China leads in 37 of these areas - the U.S. in the rest. But how do you measure technology leadership? Aspi counts scientific publications in the various fields and gives greater weight to those that are cited particularly often. There is a clear correlation between registered patents and the most frequently cited research results, the study authors write. Therefore, they say, it is possible to measure the scientific performance of a country or institution. The example of hypersonic weapons shows that it is worth taking a look at published research results. These are guided missiles that fly faster than five times the speed of sound. They are considered to be almost impossible or difficult to intercept. In 2021, American military officials were surprised when it became known that China had tested a hypersonic weapon that could be armed with a nuclear warhead. Yet there were clear signs that China was a leader in this area, the Aspi authors write: Nearly half of all high-quality research reports on modern aircraft engines - which include hypersonic propulsion systems - came from China, and seven of the world's top ten research institutes in the field were Chinese, they said. The recent affair about the Chinese spy balloon over the USA was a similar case: Chinese universities, which are known for defense research, have for years been researching balloons and similar flying objects more intensively than probably anyone else, including for military missions. Aspi now wants to use its new index called Critical Technology Tracker to lay the groundwork for preventing further such surprises. When it comes to quantum technologies, for example, China is well ahead of the U.S. in three out of four categories, in some cases. Quantum technologies take advantage of the fact that, unlike conventional particles, a quantum particle can assume multiple states simultaneously. This allows certain calculations to be performed much faster. For example, it may one day be possible to easily crack RSA, the encryption technique commonly used today. In the field of post-quantum cryptography - i.e., encryption technology that will one day be able to withstand quantum computers - China leads with 31 percent of the studies and patents, ahead of the U.S. with just over 13 percent. The situation is similar for quantum communications, which are secured via such encryption. In the development of quantum computers, on the other hand, the Aspi somewhat surprisingly sees the U.S. clearly ahead of China. Probably the most publicly discussed technology at present is artificial intelligence (AI); after all, the human-like chat software ChatGPT, released in November, has already been downloaded more than 100 million times worldwide. The Aspi also sees China ahead or nearly on par with the U.S. in several categories, such as AI algorithm development and the design of powerful computer chips. However, the focus on research studies and patents in this area in particular reveals a weakness of the study: the best research is of no use if you cannot manufacture the corresponding products yourself. In China's case, for example, this is evident in chips with AI capabilities. That's because the U.S. imposed comprehensive export bans and other restrictions on China's chip industry in October. In 8 of the 44 areas, the Aspi authors see a risk that Beijing could achieve a monopoly. This is the case when the output of Chinese research exceeds that of the next country by more than three times and 8 of the top 10 research institutes in the field are in China. This is worrisome because in the longer term it could give the authoritarian regime in Beijing the ability to blackmail other countries. It has already shown on several occasions that it is not afraid to do so. In 2010, for example, China blocked the export of rare earths to the Japanese electronics industry after Japan arrested a Chinese captain who had rammed a Japanese coast guard ship. Beijing also banned imports of many Australian products after Canberra called for an investigation into the coronavirus pandemic outbreak. The Chinese position on science cannot come as a surprise in that the communist government had long made such leadership a goal. The authors of the study also recommend that Western countries develop strategies to promote research and provide appropriate funding. The danger that global key technologies could be dominated by an authoritarian state is put into perspective by the fact that behind China and the USA, the democracies India, Great Britain, Germany, South Korea, Italy, Australia and Japan share the top 5 positions in almost all areas. Of the authoritarian countries, only Iran makes it into this league several times. Research cooperation between democratic nations thus has security policy relevance. ----------------------- Also: https://techtracker.aspi.org.au/ __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.