Quote:
Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat
joining NATO would be a major propaganda coup for Ukraine since it would put NATO firmly on its side in the conflict, but for NATO, it would be a lose/lose proposition:
1. under art. 5, NATO has to help any member under attack. Does that mean that NATO would be in a state of war with Russia has soon as Ukraine joins? Can NATO be at war with Russia in Ukraine , but be at peace in the rest of the world? How do we keep this from spinning into World War 3?
2. Presumably, they could carve the present occupation from art. 5 obligations, but would that in effect mean that NATO is recognizing and legitimising the Russian occupation in Donbass/Crimea?
3. would NATO troops be on the frontline in the Donbass? What happens when NATO troops are killed or wounded, will NATO retaliate? How far will NATO go, will it launch an offensive to reconquer Donbas? How will Russia react? How do you keep this thing from spinning out into World War 3?
4. What if Ukraine joins, but NATO does nothing but offer moral support. This will show the alliance is a useless "paper tiger". How will say the Baltic States stand up to future Russian pressure knowing the art. 5 garantee is not absolute?
No matter how you game it out, Ukraine joining NATO in the current situation is a potential disaster.
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The question is whether the Russian would let it come so far as to the Ukraine accomplishing NATO membership. I think they will escalate before the ink gets put on the treaty. At least that is what I would do if I were the Russians.
But maybe they are more pacifist than I am.
A "NATOnised" Ukraine imo is unacceptable for them. Not after their experiences with the Eastern enlargmentent of NATO 20 years ago. Their older militaries are still traumatized by those events, and I think Putin did not like it either.
Anyhow, a new member to any kind of alliance should be a contribution to that alliance, not just a burden and risk with no profits to be gained. Adding weak members do not make an alliance stronger, but weakens it. We can see that clearly in the current status of NATO. Increasing a group of weak members with another weak member just - increases the number of weak members. And we already have problems enough (that at least the WEuropeans for themselves are unable and/or unwilling to solve).