SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - War in the Pacific AAR Thread

Molon Labe · 06-14-21, 12:17 PM

Going to take a moment to pause and think about my opponent's opening.

Comparing the historical force allocations to what I'm observing in this campaign, and the historical timelines for the these theatres:

Malaya: Japanese reach Johore 1/14/42--he's about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. (But, he hasn't taken KL yet). There were two divisions assigned to this historically that I have not spotted anywhere yet. If they aren't there, this is an amazingly good performance on his part.

Philippines: Manila abandoned 26 December. He looks behind schedule, he has strong forces in Manila and Clark but they aren't pushing too hard yet. I've only identified one division as being present there but he clearly has at least two, so this looks like a historical allocation.

Burma: Campaign began in earnest in late January. There is a small amount of troop movement in the south. I'm going to call this "on schedule". The 33rd division usually assigned to this had not appeared.

South Pacific: Rabaul was captured late January, Guadalcanal May 1942. Way, way, way ahead of schedule. Force estimates are sketchy right now but I'd say a major division hasn't been assigned here, just smaller marine units.

Borneo: Balikpapan fell 24 January. Brunei fell 16 December. He looks on schedule.

Hong Kong: fell Christmas day. He's ahead of schedule significantly and that division is now free to be deployed elsewhere.

Java: began 28 February
Sumatra: began 14 February
Honorable mention--Hawaii: at least one division has been assigned (a "wildcard" that was historically used to reinforce the Philippines).

Overall it looks like he's doing really well and he's doing it with potentially as many as 6 divisions still in reserve and ready to pop up somewhere. I'd look for the 38th division to go from Hong Kong to the Philippines--waiting for them to be transported may be why he's not making strong attacks there yet. As for the rest, I'd guess he'd start a major offensive somewhere else ahead of schedule. As paralyzed as my naval forces have been around Java, and as ineffective as my air forces have been, my guess is that Sumatra is going to be the target.

I won't have the reinforcements available to stop that move, but I will note that his forward bases supporting the ARGs and covering forces need a whole lot of fuel to sustain this OpTempo, and that there are really only two routes into the Java Sea. So it's time for the Asiatic Fleet boats to take center stage ("while we still hold a base here, that is").

06-14-21, 12:17 PM	#48
Molon Labe Silent Hunter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Along the Watchtower Posts: 3,810 Downloads: 27 Uploads: 5	Going to take a moment to pause and think about my opponent's opening. Comparing the historical force allocations to what I'm observing in this campaign, and the historical timelines for the these theatres: Malaya: Japanese reach Johore 1/14/42--he's about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. (But, he hasn't taken KL yet). There were two divisions assigned to this historically that I have not spotted anywhere yet. If they aren't there, this is an amazingly good performance on his part. Philippines: Manila abandoned 26 December. He looks behind schedule, he has strong forces in Manila and Clark but they aren't pushing too hard yet. I've only identified one division as being present there but he clearly has at least two, so this looks like a historical allocation. Burma: Campaign began in earnest in late January. There is a small amount of troop movement in the south. I'm going to call this "on schedule". The 33rd division usually assigned to this had not appeared. South Pacific: Rabaul was captured late January, Guadalcanal May 1942. Way, way, way ahead of schedule. Force estimates are sketchy right now but I'd say a major division hasn't been assigned here, just smaller marine units. Borneo: Balikpapan fell 24 January. Brunei fell 16 December. He looks on schedule. Hong Kong: fell Christmas day. He's ahead of schedule significantly and that division is now free to be deployed elsewhere. Java: began 28 February Sumatra: began 14 February Honorable mention--Hawaii: at least one division has been assigned (a "wildcard" that was historically used to reinforce the Philippines). Overall it looks like he's doing really well and he's doing it with potentially as many as 6 divisions still in reserve and ready to pop up somewhere. I'd look for the 38th division to go from Hong Kong to the Philippines--waiting for them to be transported may be why he's not making strong attacks there yet. As for the rest, I'd guess he'd start a major offensive somewhere else ahead of schedule. As paralyzed as my naval forces have been around Java, and as ineffective as my air forces have been, my guess is that Sumatra is going to be the target. I won't have the reinforcements available to stop that move, but I will note that his forward bases supporting the ARGs and covering forces need a whole lot of fuel to sustain this OpTempo, and that there are really only two routes into the Java Sea. So it's time for the Asiatic Fleet boats to take center stage ("while we still hold a base here, that is"). __________________ Last edited by Molon Labe; 06-14-21 at 12:41 PM.