SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

Skybird · 04-29-24, 04:51 PM

https://www.fr.de/wirtschaft/russlan...-93042096.html

Economist is certain: Russia's economy cannot afford an end to the war in Ukraine [thats no typo or mistranslation, Skybird]

Russia's economy is benefiting from the war in Ukraine - and is dependent on it at the same time. Putin cannot afford an end - according to one economist.

Moscow - Russia's economy is growing - despite the war in Ukraine and sanctions. According to the Kremlin, gross domestic product rose by 5.5 percent in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year. According to a forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, growth will still amount to 2.8 percent in 2024. According to experts, the Russian economy is not growing despite the war, but because of the war, on which the economy is already dependent. Economist Renaud Foucart is therefore convinced: “It is a war that Russia cannot afford to lose.”

“The war in Ukraine is the most important driver of Russian economic growth,” the economist from Lancaster University stated in an article for The Conversation. Business Insider first reported on this. Foucart points to the transformation that the Russian economy has undergone as a result of the war. The state itself spends 40 percent of its budget on the war.

According to the economist, soldiers' pay, expenditure on ammunition, tanks, aircraft and compensation for wounded or fallen soldiers also contribute to Russia's gross domestic product. Other reasons for the country's resilience include the regulation of foreign companies, which makes it almost impossible to withdraw money from Russia, the circumvention of sanctions and trade via third countries. Oil and gas exports also remain an important source of income.

Other areas of the Russian economy, on the other hand, suffered from the ongoing war. According to the report, there is a shortage of labor, as young skilled workers are either fleeing the country or being drafted. According to Foucart, Russia lacks five million skilled workers. There is also a lack of direct investment in the country, which fell by 8.7 billion dollars in the first three quarters of 2023.

Even a possible victory against Ukraine would not help Russia, according to the economist. It could not afford to rebuild and secure Ukraine. The costs would be too high and Russia would remain largely isolated from the rest of the world market. As a result, the country could “at best hope to become a junior partner that is completely dependent on China”, writes Foucart.

“A protracted stalemate could be the only solution for Russia to avoid a total economic collapse,” concludes the expert. “The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war.” Russia can neither afford to win the war nor to lose it.
------------

War as an economic model means there is no incentive for peace.

04-29-24, 04:51 PM	#3324
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,587 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	https://www.fr.de/wirtschaft/russlan...-93042096.html Economist is certain: Russia's economy cannot afford an end to the war in Ukraine [thats no typo or mistranslation, Skybird] Russia's economy is benefiting from the war in Ukraine - and is dependent on it at the same time. Putin cannot afford an end - according to one economist. Moscow - Russia's economy is growing - despite the war in Ukraine and sanctions. According to the Kremlin, gross domestic product rose by 5.5 percent in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year. According to a forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, growth will still amount to 2.8 percent in 2024. According to experts, the Russian economy is not growing despite the war, but because of the war, on which the economy is already dependent. Economist Renaud Foucart is therefore convinced: “It is a war that Russia cannot afford to lose.” “The war in Ukraine is the most important driver of Russian economic growth,” the economist from Lancaster University stated in an article for The Conversation. Business Insider first reported on this. Foucart points to the transformation that the Russian economy has undergone as a result of the war. The state itself spends 40 percent of its budget on the war. According to the economist, soldiers' pay, expenditure on ammunition, tanks, aircraft and compensation for wounded or fallen soldiers also contribute to Russia's gross domestic product. Other reasons for the country's resilience include the regulation of foreign companies, which makes it almost impossible to withdraw money from Russia, the circumvention of sanctions and trade via third countries. Oil and gas exports also remain an important source of income. Other areas of the Russian economy, on the other hand, suffered from the ongoing war. According to the report, there is a shortage of labor, as young skilled workers are either fleeing the country or being drafted. According to Foucart, Russia lacks five million skilled workers. There is also a lack of direct investment in the country, which fell by 8.7 billion dollars in the first three quarters of 2023. Even a possible victory against Ukraine would not help Russia, according to the economist. It could not afford to rebuild and secure Ukraine. The costs would be too high and Russia would remain largely isolated from the rest of the world market. As a result, the country could “at best hope to become a junior partner that is completely dependent on China”, writes Foucart. “A protracted stalemate could be the only solution for Russia to avoid a total economic collapse,” concludes the expert. “The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war.” Russia can neither afford to win the war nor to lose it. ------------ War as an economic model means there is no incentive for peace. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.