[Skybird]

I am not certain that it was delberate Russian intent. Possible, but not proven. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung has some good reasoning on the possible scenarios:

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The water of the second largest Ukrainian reservoir floods huge areas, while upstream it is now suddenly missing. Who or what is responsible for the destruction remains speculative - but a deliberate blow-up would require a great deal of cynicism.

The breach of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine has caused dramatic flooding within hours. Videos show how various pieces of the once 22-meter-high dam are now lying amid the floodwaters. Water from Ukraine's second-largest reservoir, which holds a maximum of 18.2 billion cubic meters, is pouring uncontrollably into the Black Sea.
Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam with terrorist intent. EU Council President Charles Michel also announced that Moscow would be held accountable for this "war crime." The dam and electricity plant have been under Russian occupation since last year.

The local representative of the Russian occupation authorities, on the other hand, spoke of an explosion in the early hours of the morning for which Kiev was responsible. After the Tass news agency initially wrote only of a "destruction" without shelling, late in the morning it suspected a Ukrainian attack with multiple rocket launchers behind it. A video of an explosion is also circulating on the Internet. However, this is from November 2022.

According to the authorities, the water level in the second largest reservoir along the so-called Dnipro Cascade is dropping by 15 centimeters per hour. 80 localities are expected to be flooded. Since the dam is located directly on the southern front, both Ukrainian-controlled and Russian-occupied towns and villages are affected. The Ukrainians spoke of 16,000 people living in the "critical zone," the Russians of 22,000.
However, the Russian-occupied territories on the left bank of the Dnipro River are likely to be more exposed to flooding due to the topography. While the Moscow-installed mayor of Nova Kakhovka initially downplayed the danger, pictures show that the town next to the dam is meters under water. Settlements downstream are also flooded.

Evacuations have already begun in Ukrainian-controlled areas. Parts of the city of Kherson are also under water.

It remains unclear for the time being who or what is responsible for the destruction of the dam. An accident seems quite plausible, as the level had been at a record high for some time. The American journalist Geoff Brumfiel assumes that the Russian occupiers did not properly handle the water masses accumulated by the melting snow. As evidence, he cites, among other things, satellite images showing how the road on the dam was washed away as early as the beginning of June.

Presumably, the crossing and the power plant had also already been damaged during the fighting around Kherson last fall. At that time, the Ukrainians launched a rocket attack on the road next to it. During their withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro River, the Russians also detonated an explosive charge. There has also been recent fighting in the area, though apparently not in the immediate vicinity of the dam.

If either side blew up the dam, both Ukrainians and Russians would have potential motives. By causing flooding, Moscow could make it more difficult for the enemy to advance as part of the counteroffensive. Further downstream, the Ukrainians have repeatedly attempted to establish bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River in recent months.
However, Russian propagandists such as Igor Girkin also immediately turned this argument around, saying that Kiev had blown up the dam in order to submerge Russian defensive positions and minefields. In addition, they argued that this would cut off the annexed Crimean peninsula from its water supply. Therefore, control over the pumping stations at the Kakhovka Dam for the supply of the rain-deprived annexed peninsula was one of Russia's main war aims.

There are already warnings from the occupation authorities in Crimea about problems with drinking water, and on social networks there is talk of tankers running in the town of Kerch. However, the large Ukrainian city of Krivi Rih, 150 kilometers from Kherson, also reports difficulties and hoarding of drinking water. In any case, the Ukrainians would be cutting their own flesh: The reservoirs on the Dnipro, especially that of Kakhovka, provide water for populations and agriculture throughout southern Ukraine.

Even if the scenario of a deliberate Russian or Ukrainian attack presupposed a considerable degree of cynicism, it would not be without precedent: Soviet power deliberately conceived dams and lakes on the Dnipro as objects of military defense. Blowing up dams slowed the Wehrmacht's advance on Kiev during World War II. In March 2022, Ukrainians flooded areas around the capital, preventing its conquest.

Whether an accident or an attack, the consequences are still hard to predict and are likely to be catastrophic. Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, are affected. Upstream, an artificial lake with an area of almost 2200 square kilometers is now emptying within a very short time. This is also a disaster for flora and fauna. In addition, huge amounts of fresh water are now pouring into the Black Sea.

The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant also draws cooling water from the Kakhovka dam. At least the International Atomic Energy Agency declared on Tuesday morning that there was no immediate risk. The six reactors have been shut down for months because of the fighting and would only be at risk in the event of a complete loss of water.
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Anyhow: no mechanized assault in the affected regions, no offensive on Cherson. Sweet water reservoirs on Crimea are described by Russian authorities to be full 80%, whcih probbaly means it is less. Maybe its a good idea to take out the Kerch bridge next instead of leaving it open so that Russians can flee.



If the dam was mishandled by the Russians, then this shows that acicdents are possible and so it can happen at Saporischschja as well.