[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung:


Despite the announcement of a "new era," Germany's defense policy is not making any headway. Berlin is still concerned first with domestic sensitivities and hesitates when foreign policy accents might meet with resistance at home.

This is the case not only with the - faltering - arms deliveries to Ukraine or gas imports from Russia, but also with Germany's commitment to NATO. Despite grandiose announcements, Germany's attitude remains too hesitant.

On the surface, Germany is participating in strengthening NATO's eastern flank: 3,500 additional Bundeswehr soldiers will soon be available for Lithuania. However, these soldiers will not be stationed in Lithuania, but will remain at home in Germany. In the event of defense, they are to be deployed quickly.

At the NATO summit in Madrid, Germany prevailed with this position. Most of the additional troops for the eastern flank will remain in their home countries and will only be moved to the NATO eastern border for exercises.

This shows: Germany's defense policy, after four months of war, has still not arrived at the age of the new confrontation with Russia. The German government is not taking the decisive steps to the end.

So far, NATO has relied on deterrence by punishment in the Baltic region. Should Russia attack on its eastern flank, the few NATO troops stationed there would merely act as a tripwire. The Russian army would occupy territory, and NATO would recapture these areas by means of contingents quickly deployed there.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, however, there is a legitimate fear in the Baltics that this strategy will not work.

First, the Balts argue that every day under Russian occupation is one day too many. The war crimes in Butscha and Irpin prove them right: Russian territorial gains must be prevented in advance.

Second, the Ukrainian war has shown how recklessly Putin poses the nuclear threat - and how quickly it serves its purpose, especially in Germany. It is questionable whether the Western partners will really send reinforcements to the Baltics immediately if they risk a nuclear war by doing so.

For these reasons, NATO will now increase its rapid deployment force from 40,000 to 300,000 troops. The Eastern Europeans, however, demanded that additional soldiers be permanently stationed on NATO's eastern border.

The military alliance should switch to deterrence by denial so that Putin does not even consider an attack. This would require Western partners to establish permanent military bases on the eastern flank, something Germany is not prepared to do. Once again, Berlin is perceived as a ditherer in the face of existential threats to its partners.

Military bases abroad are expensive. They place a heavy burden on the country's own soldiers. Their families have to live in another country for a long time, and the Bundeswehr would have to pay for housing and schools for the soldiers.

But if Germany takes the "turn of the times" seriously and wants to make a substantial contribution to the defense of the NATO area, it must not hesitate as soon as the military commitment becomes somewhat costly or uncomfortable.

Just as West Berlin was protected in the Cold War not by troops in North Carolina but in Germany, Vilnius will not be defended from the Lüneburg Heath. In other words: If you want to deter Russia, you can't stay at home.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)