Quote:
Originally Posted by Dargo
Not since the 1930s has an economy the size of Russia’s been placed under such a wide array of commercial restrictions as those imposed in response to its invasion of Ukraine. But in contrast to Italy and Japan in the 1930s, Russia today is a major exporter of oil, grain, and other key commodities, and the global economy is far more integrated. As a result, today’s sanctions have global economic effects far greater than anything seen before. Their magnitude should prompt reconsideration of sanctions as a powerful policy instrument with major global economic implications.
Sanctions are not the only source of turmoil in the global economy. Energy prices have been rising since last year as the economic recovery from the pandemic encountered overburdened supply chains. Global food prices rose 28 percent in 2020 and 23 percent in 2021, and they surged 17 percent this year between February and March alone. The war has also harmed Ukraine directly, as fighting has closed the country’s Black Sea ports, blocking its exports of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and other goods.
The effects of the loss of Ukrainian supply have been amplified by two even larger shocks: the sanctions imposed on Russia by 38 North American, European, and Asian governments and the responses to those measures by global firms and banks. This barrage of legal, commercial, financial, and technological restrictions has drastically impeded Russia’s access to the world economy. It has also vastly increased the range of commodities from both countries that are no longer finding their way onto world markets. Sweeping sanctions against Russia have combined with the worldwide supply chain crisis and the wartime disruption of Ukrainian trade to deliver a uniquely powerful economic shock. Additional sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports would magnify these effects further... https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...-weapon-mulder
There are so many views on this matter, we also must consider what corona has globally damaged world transport and producing we still see its effect with china in lockdowns and sanctions are no wonder weapon not have effect in months you must look in years to take effect economy is not a Holy Writ. |
See the seven ingredients for the perfect storm:
https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...&postcount=193
My favourite suspects for the desaster unfolding, are the central banks, and the govenrments. "Debt-ageddon". Inflating the circulating currencies of Euros and Dollars etc like crazy. The ECB's total assets (=Bilanzsumme) have been inflated by a factor of 8+ by the very ECB in the years since 2007-212, and national debt levels are much higher than they were before 2007-2012. The government-to-GDP ratio (=Staatsquote) is now a devastating 53%, and rising fast. There was already a high number of uncompetitive companies in the Eurozone before Corona, values of 17-22% were last cited before Corona. No one has yet calculated precisely what the ratio is today, after two Corona years, but it is likely to be 30% or higher. Typically, 20% is cited as the critical mark beyond which the zombies begin to take the rest of the economy down with them.
Sorry to spoil the part,y but one thing is clear: the world will not get off this ride intact. There's going to be destruction with plenty of small wood hacked - at matchstick length. Its called stagflation, and currency reform. It means massive, wide social decline, and state-driven mass expropriation of private savings and private property.