Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
An Ukrainian general estimates the Russian have a numerical advantage in soldiers in the battlezones of Donbass of 5:1, and in artillery even 7:1. The losses of the ukrainians are estimated to be 100-200 per day - and that of the Russians' said to be 3-5 times as high. However, the attrition affects the ukrainians heavily, and Ukrainian military leaders and analysts from abroad say that currently a new big counter offensive is unlikely because the Ukrainian army simply is overexhausted and many fighters are at the end of their physical and psychological stamina. One must assume that this is exactly what the new Russian strategy of keeping up utmost pressure even when suffering desastrous own losses is aiming for. The Russians can afford these losses. The Ukrianians can't afford even their lower losses. Ever ylost artiollery piece counts several times more agaunst them mthna any Russian artillery piece lost.
The Ukrainians say they need hundreds more of artillery and MRLS systems to survive this war of attrition.
Belarus possibly prepares a late entry into the war. Maybe Lukashenko finally is pressed to pay tribuite to Putin'S help in cracking down ion the oppsoiton after the last elecitonf raud. Belarussian army is again amassing forces near the border to Ukraine. I think it is absolutely possible that Russia will sooner or later start a second attempt to conquer Kyiw - or obliterate it.
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The main offensive is on the city of Severodonetsk Russia throws all their material and personnel on a city that is for 90% in rubble do not see any gain if they take that city and if they have it they need to cross the river Siversky Donets, cross open field and take highly fortified Lysychans'k fighting up hill. With the losses the Russians have now this only will rise greatly, one of the problem of Russia has is getting personnel, and they suck at street battles. Ukraine cannot win this in the long run without supply of heavy material, but they can still cause high losses to the Russians to keep Ukrainian ground as long as they can.