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Skybird · 01-12-23, 07:55 AM

FOCUS writes:
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Beijing knows exactly why Putin is not winning his war

Xi Jinping has closely followed the course of Putin's Ukraine invasion. He has made preparations - and unlike Russia, he would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan.

The question of whether an attack by Beijing on the island republic of Taiwan would play out similarly to Putin's attack on Ukraine is on the minds of strategists, military leaders and politicians around the world.

Is the Chinese army better prepared than the Russian? If attacked, can the Taiwanese defend themselves as well as the Ukrainian forces are doing right now? Can China's leader Xi, unlike Kremlin dictator Putin, succeed in a "blitz war"?

To answer these questions, it is helpful to remember February 2022. For Putin's attack was not a surprise, but prepared over weeks. The world watched as troops were moved to the border with Ukraine, as the Kremlin's rhetoric against the neighboring country intensified. At the time, people in the capitals of the free world believed that Putin was bluffing, that he would not actually follow through with an attack. This miscalculation must not be repeated in the case of Taiwan.

Beijing knows why Putin has not won the war so far

If Beijing were really serious about its threat of war, it would mean weeks of preparations that would be noticed outside the People's Republic. The economy would have to be converted by Beijing to war production. Troop movements would be detectable via satellite imagery. So the attack would certainly not be a surprise.

Xi Jinping, the commander-in-chief of his army (the Chinese army is subordinate to the Communist Party, not the state), has closely followed the course of the Ukraine invasion. In September, his ally Putin had to come up and answer Xi's "questions and concerns" regarding the failure of the Ukraine invasion to succeed. Beijing threw its full weight behind Putin's belligerence. Anything less than a Putin victory would be an embarrassment and a loss of face for Xi.

Beijing knows why Putin has not won the war so far: The defensive readiness of the Ukrainian army and civilian population, as well as the unity of the free world, have ensured that the Kremlin's aggression has been successfully repelled.
Kremlin chief Putin invites China's party leader Xi on state visit
Photo: dpa Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, speaks with Xi Jinping, president of China, during a video conference. Putin has invited Chinese leader Xi to Moscow for a state visit in the spring.

Xi Jinping would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan

Xi has therefore been busy over the past eleven months, talking to co-dictators in Tehran and Pyongyang. The axis of evil from Moscow, through Beijing, North Korea and Iran has strengthened, with weapons going back and forth between them. Beijing is ensnaring more autocracies like Saudi Arabia to win them over and give them the opportunity to abandon their alliance with Washington in favor of the People's Republic at a crucial moment. Xi Jinping would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan.

Moreover, Beijing is trying massively to brace itself against possible sanctions that an attack on Taiwan would surely entail. Getting Saudi Arabia to do its oil business with Beijing in Chinese currency rather than U.S. dollars is as much a part of the security precautions as contracts for gas and oil supplies with the Taliban (which are also to be paid in Chinese currency). Even in Beijing, no one believes any longer that China's economy cannot be dealt with by sanctions, because the economy is in a multiple crisis due to Xi's ideological policies.

China will be better prepared for its war of aggression than Putin was

If the real estate sector, which accounts for about twenty percent of China's economic output, does indeed collapse, if economic growth continues to stagnate, and if even more loans Beijing has extended under its New Silk Road initiative default, sanctions by the free world could indeed deal a death blow to the Chinese economy and thus to the autocracy of Xi and his nomenklatura. Xi wants to be prepared against this in any case.

China will, that much is certain, be better prepared for its war of aggression than Putin was. But in the end, such a war will be decided on the battlefield. And these are indeed elementally different.

Ukraine is the largest country in Europe, Taiwan a small island. Landing on its shores would be anything but child's play for the Chinese navy and could end the invasion before it even began. The demise of the Armada in the 21st century. But Beijing could easily seal off the island from the rest of the world. A foretaste of this was provided by the blockade of Taiwan in the summer of 2022 after U.S. politician Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei.

Both the political leadership and the civilian population and army of Ukraine, like the political leaders in the free world, were a good deal ahead of Moscow at the end of February 2022. However, no one can rest on that. For Taiwan to remain a free country, all those who would be involved in a potential war or work to prevent it from happening in the first place must be one step ahead of Beijing.
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01-12-23, 07:55 AM	#402
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,571 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	FOCUS writes: -------------------- Beijing knows exactly why Putin is not winning his war Xi Jinping has closely followed the course of Putin's Ukraine invasion. He has made preparations - and unlike Russia, he would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan. The question of whether an attack by Beijing on the island republic of Taiwan would play out similarly to Putin's attack on Ukraine is on the minds of strategists, military leaders and politicians around the world. Is the Chinese army better prepared than the Russian? If attacked, can the Taiwanese defend themselves as well as the Ukrainian forces are doing right now? Can China's leader Xi, unlike Kremlin dictator Putin, succeed in a "blitz war"? To answer these questions, it is helpful to remember February 2022. For Putin's attack was not a surprise, but prepared over weeks. The world watched as troops were moved to the border with Ukraine, as the Kremlin's rhetoric against the neighboring country intensified. At the time, people in the capitals of the free world believed that Putin was bluffing, that he would not actually follow through with an attack. This miscalculation must not be repeated in the case of Taiwan. Beijing knows why Putin has not won the war so far If Beijing were really serious about its threat of war, it would mean weeks of preparations that would be noticed outside the People's Republic. The economy would have to be converted by Beijing to war production. Troop movements would be detectable via satellite imagery. So the attack would certainly not be a surprise. Xi Jinping, the commander-in-chief of his army (the Chinese army is subordinate to the Communist Party, not the state), has closely followed the course of the Ukraine invasion. In September, his ally Putin had to come up and answer Xi's "questions and concerns" regarding the failure of the Ukraine invasion to succeed. Beijing threw its full weight behind Putin's belligerence. Anything less than a Putin victory would be an embarrassment and a loss of face for Xi. Beijing knows why Putin has not won the war so far: The defensive readiness of the Ukrainian army and civilian population, as well as the unity of the free world, have ensured that the Kremlin's aggression has been successfully repelled. Kremlin chief Putin invites China's party leader Xi on state visit Photo: dpa Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, speaks with Xi Jinping, president of China, during a video conference. Putin has invited Chinese leader Xi to Moscow for a state visit in the spring. Xi Jinping would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan Xi has therefore been busy over the past eleven months, talking to co-dictators in Tehran and Pyongyang. The axis of evil from Moscow, through Beijing, North Korea and Iran has strengthened, with weapons going back and forth between them. Beijing is ensnaring more autocracies like Saudi Arabia to win them over and give them the opportunity to abandon their alliance with Washington in favor of the People's Republic at a crucial moment. Xi Jinping would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan. Moreover, Beijing is trying massively to brace itself against possible sanctions that an attack on Taiwan would surely entail. Getting Saudi Arabia to do its oil business with Beijing in Chinese currency rather than U.S. dollars is as much a part of the security precautions as contracts for gas and oil supplies with the Taliban (which are also to be paid in Chinese currency). Even in Beijing, no one believes any longer that China's economy cannot be dealt with by sanctions, because the economy is in a multiple crisis due to Xi's ideological policies. China will be better prepared for its war of aggression than Putin was If the real estate sector, which accounts for about twenty percent of China's economic output, does indeed collapse, if economic growth continues to stagnate, and if even more loans Beijing has extended under its New Silk Road initiative default, sanctions by the free world could indeed deal a death blow to the Chinese economy and thus to the autocracy of Xi and his nomenklatura. Xi wants to be prepared against this in any case. China will, that much is certain, be better prepared for its war of aggression than Putin was. But in the end, such a war will be decided on the battlefield. And these are indeed elementally different. Ukraine is the largest country in Europe, Taiwan a small island. Landing on its shores would be anything but child's play for the Chinese navy and could end the invasion before it even began. The demise of the Armada in the 21st century. But Beijing could easily seal off the island from the rest of the world. A foretaste of this was provided by the blockade of Taiwan in the summer of 2022 after U.S. politician Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei. Both the political leadership and the civilian population and army of Ukraine, like the political leaders in the free world, were a good deal ahead of Moscow at the end of February 2022. However, no one can rest on that. For Taiwan to remain a free country, all those who would be involved in a potential war or work to prevent it from happening in the first place must be one step ahead of Beijing. --------------------------- __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.