[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:


There is a gas treasure in the Mediterranean - only Europe didn't want it

Billions and billions of tons of gas and oil lie at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea, and the countries bordering it are racing to find and produce it, each against the other. International institutions had already proclaimed a new harmony there. But that was before the Ukraine war.

The law of the jungle may soon prevail at sea - this is a rather pessimistic view of the activities of numerous riparian states in the eastern part of that great body of water that the Romans called "mare nostrum," our sea, around which they built their empire. Possession did not exist, the legions of Rome would have been the answer.

At present, it is due to the hunger for energy and the dispute over maritime boundaries of posterity that there is only a most fragile peace in the vast area between Turkey and Greece, Israel and Lebanon, Cyprus and Egypt. Recognized maritime law and international agreements are being bypassed on a large scale.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shredded the finest visions and most promising plans of the EU and the Mediterranean states of North Africa almost overnight. As late as the end of 2021, one could read in thoroughly reputable sources about the loss of importance of the natural gas under the seabed, and about the resulting peaceful coexistence of neighbors, some of whom have been at odds for centuries. The key term for this was "renewable energies". Huge submarine cables were to transport electricity from the sun and wind from Egypt, for example, via Cyprus and Crete to Central Europe. Green hydrogen would satisfy the region's hunger for energy and light up Europe. The tiresome disputes over borders and nautical miles off the coasts would become meaningless.

The dream is over, and probably for the foreseeable future. Even before 2014, the EU had developed a strategy for using the gas deposits of the eastern Mediterranean as an energy source for Central Europe - with the far-sighted goal of reducing dependence on Russia's raw material. The plan disappeared into the drawers when the noble goal of decarbonizing Europe's energy supply was set. "Natural gas imports from the eastern Mediterranean are no longer considered particularly relevant," stated the Stiftung für Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) in Berlin as recently as fall 2021.

Rarely have plans become wastepaper so quickly. In any case, the potential benefits of a sustainable energy supply lie far in the future. Nevertheless, they were pursued as a matter of urgency - and in the meantime, the focus on gas exploration was halted because it would take years to achieve a reliable supply. And then, it was believed, fossil fuels would no longer be needed. Israeli experts, on the other hand, whose country continues to produce natural gas, believe that the raw material will remain indispensable well into the next century. It could be that they are right.

Turkey is obviously pursuing visions of a completely different kind. Ankara is pursuing a shuttle course in the Ukraine conflict; no wonder, since almost half of its gas comes from Russia, and Iran is another important supplier. Both are countries that Ankara does not want to anger. Instead, Turkey would offer the possibility of forwarding gas via pipeline through Bulgaria or even Greece - the pipelines exist. The EU is skeptical, because this would create another indirect dependence on Russia.

Moreover, Turkey, a NATO partner like its arch-enemy Greece, is primarily a troublemaker in the eastern Mediterranean - at least from the point of view of most of the other littoral states. The Turkish drilling ship "Abdulhamid Han" has recently been searching "everywhere" in the eastern Mediterranean for new deposits, according to its own statements - an affront to Greece, whose own economic zones around the Aegean islands are not taken seriously by Ankara, although they are internationally recognized maritime borders.

Turkey is also active in the waters of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus, a state that is not internationally recognized. This upsets the EU member Republic of Cyprus and worries Greece once again. Athens has its own experience with Ottoman traditions.

Without Turkey, however, neither peaceful resource extraction in southeastern Europe nor the use of future "green" energies is possible in the long term. Next year's elections are also casting their shadows: In view of a catastrophic economic development with dramatically high inflation, the autocratic President Erdogan is relying even more than he already does on unbridled national pride as a vehicle for winning over voters. This, by the way, is based on an idiosyncratic understanding of history not unlike that of Russia under Putin.

Amid this unpleasant mix, Israel and Turkey recently sealed the resumption of diplomatic relations. This could also at least help to dampen the conflicts in the energy sector. Israel already produces gas from two huge deposits off its coast - only the question of transporting it to Europe has not been a priority so far and is therefore unresolved. In the medium term, a solution could be found in agreement with Turkey.

What all projects have in common is that they do not seem suitable for the short-term alleviation of a dramatically tight supply situation. However, the EU's hastily abandoned gas-from-the-sea plans show that determined implementation in all the years since 2010 would bear fruit today. Today, when a way out of the predicament is urgently needed, and has not.
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